ESA Pilot Project: Real-time forecast service for geomagnetically induced current

ESA Pilot Project: Real-time forecast service for geomagnetically induced current

H. Lundstedt1, P. Wintoft1, M. Wik1, L. Eliasson1, Risto Pirjola2,3, A. Viljanen2, A. Pulkkinen2,4 H. Swahn5, and Å. Sjödin6

1) Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Sweden 2) Finnish Meteorological Institute, Space Research Unit, Helsinki, Finland, 4) Geomagnetic Laboratory, Natural Resources, Canada, Ottawa, Canada 5) NASA, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, USA, 5) OKG AB, A Company in the E.ON Group, Sweden, 6) ELFORSK, Sweden

SDA objectives• Real-time forecasting of GIC in the Swedish power grid • Perform post-analysis to determine space weather causes of GIC• Coordination with the Space Weather European Network (SWENET)

Forecast system in order to limit damage caused by GIC

User needs User needs

User satisfaction - financial benefitsUser satisfaction - financial benefits

The aim of the cost-benefit analysis is to determine the benefit of carrying-out various measures in order to limit damage caused by GIC. The study of the probability of different events (GIC disturbances) and the consequences of these events formed the basis for the economical analysis. The cost of damage today is compared to the cost of damage-limiting measures.

The assumed method to prevent A and B is an early warning system (forecasts).The assumed method to prevent C and D is a monitoring system.

1 € = 9.5SEK

A.

Voltage collapse

B. Regional Voltage collapse

C. Damage system transformer

D. Damage plant transformer

Cost today (MSEK)

2,852 761 39 72

Cost after measures (MSEK)

609 190 8 14

% cost reduction

78.66% 74.98% 78.33% 79.96%

Cost-benefit analysis of measures against power grid disturbances caused by solar storms, Elforsk report 03:36, June 2003, Stefan SkarpSolstormar, Transienta geomagnetiska störningar, Elforsk report 03:33, January 2004

Sustainability of service - Business planSustainability of service - Business plan

• Access to real-time data from solar wind monitor (ACE) (absolute crucial !!!) • Internet connection • Access to a magnetometer for verification of forecasts and monitoring (Currently kindly provided by DMI/Brorfelde)• Initial cost for forecast system (2 MSEK ≈ € 210 000) (A,B)• Maintenance (0.6MSEK/year ≈ € 63 000) (A,B)• Costs for cases C,D: initial cost (350 000SEK ≈ €36 840),• Maintenance (10 000 ≈ €1050)

Prospective for improvement of the service

Prospective for improvement of the service

• The service will be useful for the south of Sweden.• Warnings 15-39 hours ahead based on solar input and even warning days ahead of activity based on far-side observations are of great interest.• The Halloween events taught us the importance of these warnings, for carrying out preventive measures.• However these warnings are today not accurate enough to decide whether or not to import and export power.

S. Lindahl, Effects of Geomagnetically induced currents on protection systems, Elforsk report 03:34.December 2003.H. Lundstedt, The Sun, Space Weather, and GIC Effects in Sweden, in press, Adv. in Space Res. 2005.