esa annual report 2015 - european...
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ESA ANNUAL REPORT 2015
Mr Dariusz KOZAK European Commission Euratom Supply Agency Nuclear Fuel Market Observatory Sector
Luxembourg May 2016
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2015 ESA annual survey conducted among EU nuclear energy utilities and their procurement organisations and it is based on the following data sets: - deliveries of EUP - fuel loaded into reactors - future requirements for natural uranium and separative work - natural uranium deliveries - natural uranium deliveries contracted for future years - separative work units deliveries contracted for future years - level of inventories EU nuclear utilities :
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CEZ EDF & EDF Energy ENBW ENUSA EoNKK EPZ
RWE SLOVELEKT SNN-Nuclearelectrica SYNATOM TVO VATTENFALL
FORTUM IGNALINAKOZLODUY KRSKO Magnox Ltd OKG PAKS
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U Demand
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2015 demand of U is driven by
- 18 nuclear utilities - 14 EU Member States - 128 EU-based nuclear reactors (shut downs: single unit Grafenrheinfeld NPP in Germany, Oskarshamm Unit 2 in Sweden and Wylfa Unit 1 in the United Kingdom).
- According to EUROSTAT EU-28 gross electricity generation amounted to 876.3 TWh (2014) and nuclear gross electricity generation accounted for 27.5 % of total EU-28 production.
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FRESH FUEL LOADED INTO EU REACTORS
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2014 2015 % change Fuel Loaded (tLEU) 2 165 2 230 3% Enrichment assay (%) 3.85 3.82
Feed
NatU (tU) 15 355 16 235 5.7%
RepU (tU) 582 303 48% tSWU 11 803 11 851 Tails assays (%) 0.24 0.24
Demand of U
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MOX FUEL LOADED INTO THE EU REACTORS
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2014 2015 % change MOX Fuel Loaded (kg PU)
11 603 10 780 7%
Savings in NatU (tonnes)
1 156 1 050 10%
Savings in SWU (tonnes)
825 742 11%
Demand of U
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Natural uranium included in fuel loaded (or equivalent of NatU) by source in 2015
Source Quantities
(tU) Share (%)
Uranium originated outside the EU 15 835 90.0
Uranium originated in the EU (approximate annual production)
400 2.3
Reprocessed uranium 303 1.7
Savings from MOX 1 050 6.0
Total annual requirements 17 587 100
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Demand of U
10%
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URANIUM DELIVERED TO THE EU UTILITIES
2014 2015 Change
2015/2014
Uranium delivered (tU) 14 751 15 990 8.4%
Nr of deliveries 125 144
Long-term contracts (%) 96.5 95
Spot contracts (%) 3.5 5
Demand of U
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U contained in fuel loaded and NatU delivered to EU-28 Utilities in tonnes U, 2006-2015
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Demand of U
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EU Future NatU reactor requirements in tonnes of U, 2016-2035
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Demand of U
17 037 18 314
15 598
15 277 NatU gross
requirements 14 079
13 963
16 472
13 720 13 663
NatU net requirements 12 669
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
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Demand of U
EU Future SWU reactor requirements in tonnes of U, 2016 - 2035
13 740
15 003
12 758
12 404 SWU gross
requirements 11 495
13 963
16 472
13 720 13 663
SWU net requirements 12 669
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
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Future Demand of U EU and worldwide up to 2030
• EU U demand is approximately stable around 16 750 tU /year up from 2016 to 2025 and 14 600 tU/year from 2026 to 2035
• whereas global demand is increasing rapidly
• EU Share of Global U Demand falls from 28.5% in 2015 to 16% in 2030
2015 2020 2030
EU Demand 17 587 16 823 14 509
Global Demand* 61 660 74 296 90 514
EU Share% 28.5% 22.6% 16%
Sources: ESA Annual Report 2014 and (*) WNA Market Report 2015, Demand reference scenario
Demand of U
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U Supply
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Natural uranium deliveries to the EU by origin in 2015
Supply of U
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Natural uranium deliveries by region, 2006-2015
Supply of U
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Uranium Suppliers to EU Utilities in 2015
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Supply of U
23 suppliers
AREVA NC and AREVA NP (formerly Cogéma)
AREVA Mines
Aron
BHP Billiton (formerly WMC)
Cameco Inc. Corporation USA
CNU
Cominak
DIAMO
Internexco GmbH
Itochuint
KazAtomProm
Macquarie Bank Limited, London Branch
NUKEM GmbH
Paladin Energy Ltd
Rio Tinto Marketing Pte Ltd
Tenex (JSC Techsnabexport)
Traxys North America LLC
TVEL
UEM
UG – Urangesellschaft MbH
Uranium One
Urenco Ltd
USEC - United States Enrichment Corporation
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U Prices
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ESA U Price Indices
• ESA Spot U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under spot contracts in 2015
• ESA Long-term U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under long-term contracts with deliveries in 2015
• ESA MAC-3 U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered only under newly signed long-term contracts i.e. signed/amended within the last three years (2013-2015) with deliveries in 2015
U Prices
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• Deliveries database o made under Nat U or EUP purchasing contracts by EU utilities
during the reference year i.e. 2015
• Currency Conversion o converted into EUR
o ECB annual average exchange rates
o ECB EUR/USD (2015) = 1.11
• Unit Conversion o kg U in the chemical form U308, using conventional conversion
factors
• ESA average conversion price o If included, deducted to obtain the net natural uranium price
as U308
o ESA Conversion Price (2015) = €9.36/kgU
o ESA Conversion Price is based on the NatU long term contracts
ESA Prices Calculation Methodology
U Prices
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ESA Spot U3O8 prices
2014 2015 2015/2014
€/kgU €/kgU €/kgU
74.65 88.73 19%
$/lb U3O8 $/lb U3O8 $/lb U3O8
38.15 37.87 -1%
• Based on prices in spot contracts
• 5% of total deliveries
• 13 deliveries
• Based on fixed prices or index-based formulae
• Deliveries accounted for 846 tonnes of uranium
• Widely distributed: 78-99 €/kgU or 33-42 $/lb U3O8
U Prices
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ESA Long-term U3O8 price
2014 2015 2015/2014
€/kgU €/kgU €/kgU
78.31 94.30 20%
$/lb U3O8 $/lb U3O8 $/lb U3O8
40.02 40.24 0.5%
• Based on prices in long term contracts
• Contracts signed 7 years earlier on average
• 95% of total deliveries • 121 deliveries • Based on fixed prices or
index-based formulae • Deliveries accounted for
15 144 tonnes of uranium • Data widely scattered • 75% of prices falling into
range: 72-118 €/kgU or 31-50 $/lb U3O8
U Prices
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2014 2015 2015/2014
€/kgU €/kgU €/kgU
93.68 89.83 5%
$/lb U3O8 $/lb U3O8 $/lb U3O8
47.87 38.33 21%
• 10% of total deliveries • 38 deliveries • Deliveries accounted for
1 666 tonnes of uranium • Based on deliveries
made only under newly signed or newly amended multiannual contracts over the last 3 years
U Prices
ESA MAC-3 U3O8 price
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ESA average price indices, 2006 - 2015
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U Prices
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Enrichment services
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Enrichment services deliveries
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Enrichment services
2014 2015 Change
2015/2014
tSWU 12 524 12 493 -
EUP tU 2 048 1 989 -2.8%
Uranium feed tU 16 139 16 090 -
AV enrichment
assay (%) 4.09 4.17
AV tails assay
(%) 0.24 0.24
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Supply of enrichment services to EU utilities by supplier
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Enricher
Quantities in Share in Quantities in Share in Change in
quantities
2015/2014 2014 (tSWU) 2014 (%) 2015 (tSWU) 2015 (%)
AREVA +
URENCO (EU) 8 503 68% 7 538 60% -11%
TENEX/TVEL
(Russia) 3 197
26% (includes 7% of
grandfathered)
4 145 36%
(includes 8,5% of
grandfathered)
30%
USEC (USA) 200 2% 200 3% -
Others 624 5% 610 1% -2%
Total 12 524 100% 12 493 100% -
Enrichment services
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Supply of enrichment services to EU utilities by supplier, 2006-2015
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Enrichment services
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EU Russia Other USA
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Security of supply
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SECURITY OF SUPPLY
• Inventories • Diversification of supply • Forward thinking
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EU Uranium inventories, 2010-2015
• cover 3 years of the EU
gross reactor requirements
• ranging from three months
to 6 years on utility level
• the majority of utilities
keep a sufficient quantity
of inventories for at least
one reload
SECURITY OF SUPPLY
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Nuclear power share of total electricity production in the EU in 2015
SECURITY OF SUPPLY
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Long-term contractual coverage for U & SWU, 2016-2024
SECURITY OF SUPPLY
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Thank you for your attention Mr Dariusz KOZAK
EURATOM Supply Agency
European Commission
e-mail: [email protected]
http:/ / ec.europa.eu/ euratom/ index_en.html
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mailto:[email protected]://ec.europa.eu/euratom/index_en.html