April 2019

Valuation InsightsEquity Risk Premium in India

Section Page

1. Foreword 03

2. Executivesummary 04

3. Backgroundandcontext 05

4. Approachandmethodology 06

Contents

About Valuation Insights

ValuationInsightsisaperiodicpublicationofGrantThorntonIndiaLLP,amemberfirmwithinGrantThorntonInternationalLtd.Itisourefforttodiscussandaddressvariousvaluationissuesusingthebestpracticesandinternationalguidelines.Ourteamofprofessionalssharestheirthoughtsonthenuancesofvaluationsandtheirstrategicandpracticalimplications.

02ValuationInsights

Disclaimer

ERPestimationinvolvestheuseofsubjectiveestimatesandmultipleapproaches.HencedifferentresearchersmaycomeoutwithdifferentERPs.Further,theERPconcludedinthisreportrepresentstheERPprevailingafterthepublicationdateandhenceshouldnotbeconsideredrepresentativeoftheERPprevailingatanyotherhistoricaldate.TheERPremainsstableforafairlylongperiodunlessthereisadrasticchangeintheeconomicandmarketconditions.Hence,theconcludedERPcouldbeconsideredeffectivetillsuchtimethecurrentanalysisisupdatedinthefutureorthereisasignificantchangeintheeconomicandmarketconditions.

Thedocumentisforinformationpurposeonly.Theanalysisisbasedongenerallyacceptedmethodologies,informationavailableinthepublicdomainaswellasinformationsourcedfrominternationaldatabases.Theinformationcontainedinthisdocumentispublishedfortheassistanceoftherecipientbutisnottoberelieduponasauthoritativeortakeninsubstitutionfortheexerciseofjudgementbyanyrecipient.

Thisdocumentisnotintendedtobeasubstituteforprofessional,technicalorlegaladvice.Wehavenoobligationtoupdatethisreport.Allopinionsexpressedinthisdocumentaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Whileduecarehasbeentakeninthepreparationofthisdocumentandinformationcontainedherein,GrantThorntondoesnotacceptanyliabilitywhatsoeverforanydirectorconsequentiallosshowsoeverarisingfromanyuseofthisdocumentoritscontentsorotherwisearisinginconnectionherewith.

ValuationInsights03

Foreword

Akeychallengeoftenfacedbyinvestors,advisersandcorporatefinanceprofessionalsistoquantifytheadditionalpremiumoropportunitycostthatshouldbedemandedforholdingtheequityassetclass.Giventhesubjectivityinvolvedinestimatingsuchapremium,thequestionspillsovertotheunderlyingassumptionsoftheapproachtobeused,timeperiodconsidered,marketdefinition,etc.Thisriskpremiumneedstobereassessedperiodicallyinlinewithfluctuationsinthestockmarketperformanceandforecastofeconomictrendsofthecountry.

Wearepleasedtosharewithyouourresearchontheequityriskpremium(ERP)inIndia.Inthesecondeditionofourpublicationonthistopic,wehaveanalysedtheERPforIndiafromtwoperspectives:HistoricalandForward-Looking(asofacut-offdateof31December2018).

HistoricalanalysisindicatesthattheIndianstockmarketgaveanaverageannualisedreturnof16.70%during2001-18fordifferentinvestmenthorizons,implyinganexcessreturnof8.86%overtherisk-freerate.Wefurtheradjustedthisexcessreturnforthereturngeneratedduetoexpansioninthevaluationmultiples(consideringthatthevaluationmultiplescannotkeeponexpandinginperpetuityforadeveloped/efficientequitymarket).

Onaforward-lookingbasis,weestimatedthereturnexpectationpricedinthecurrentmarketindex.Thiswasestimatedastheratewhichwhenusedtodiscountthefuture

expectedcashflows(basedonconsensusforecasts)fromconstituentcompaniesoftheNiftyindex,resultsinapresentvalueofthesecashflowswhichisequaltothemarketcapoftheNiftyindex.ThisanalysisindicatesthatdespitetheNiftyindextradingatanearall-timehighPEmultiple,theexpectedhealthygrowthinfutureearnings/cashflowsstillimpliesanexpectedreturnof15.17%witharisk-freerateof7.50%.

WhilethetwoanalysesprovidetwodifferentestimatesofERP,eachapproachhascertaininherentprosandcons.Hence,anaverageofthetwoestimates(rounded),ie6.75%,hasbeenconsideredasrepresentativeofthecurrentERPforIndia.

WehopetheERPestimatewillbeausefulinputforvaluationprofessionals,corporatesandinvestorsintheirvaluationanalysis.

Manish SaxenaPartnerGrant Thornton India LLP

Darshana KadakiaPartnerGrant Thornton India LLP

Wearepleasedtosharewithyouourresearchontheequityriskpremium(ERP)inIndia.Inthesecondeditionofourpublicationonthistopic,wehaveanalysedtheERPforIndiafromtwoperspectives:HistoricalandForward-Looking(asofacut-offdateof31December2018).

04ValuationInsights

Executive summary

Equityriskpremium(ERP)istheexcessreturnoverandabovethereturnonarisk-freeassetwhichaninvestordemandsforinvestingintheequityassetclass.ThesignificanceofERPintheworldofinvestingandpolicydecisionmakingcannotbeemphasisedenough.

WhilevarioustechniqueshaveevolvedovertimetoestimatetheERPinagivenmarket,wehaveusedtwoofthemostcommonlyandinternationallyacceptedapproaches,ieHistoricalEstimateApproachandImpliedEstimate(Forward-LookingEstimate)ApproachtoestimatetheERPfortheequitymarketsintheIndianeconomy.Ourfindingsareasfollows:

HistoricalApproach 5.68%

Forward-LookingApproach 7.67%

Equityriskpremium(rounded) 6.75%

ValuationInsights05

Equityriskpremium(ERP)isakeycomponentoftheoverallrequiredrateofreturnforequityinvestments.Equitiesareoneofthemostwidelyusedassetclassesforinvestmentpurposesforbothshortandlong-termperiods.Giventheriskinherentinequitiesstemmingfromthenatureoftheassetclassanduncertaintyoffutureexpectedcashflowsvis-à-visarisk-freeasset,investorsdemandanadditionalreturnforholdingequities.Simplyput:

ERP is the additional return that investors desire for holding investments in equities instead of a risk-free asset.

Sincetherequired/expectedrateofreturnthatarationalinvestorshoulddemandastheopportunitycostofinvestinginequitiesisseldomvisibleoridentifiablethroughproxyinstrumentstradedinthemarket,ERPbecomesanimportantelementindeterminingthisrequiredrateofreturn,whichplaysacrucialroleforaninvestortodeterminetherisk-returntrade-offforanyinvestment.

ThefollowingisabriefsummaryofthekeyareasofinvestmentandpolicydecisionmakingthatstrengthenthesignificanceofERP:

Significance of ERPAsdiscussedabove,opportunitycostiskeytoinvestmentdecision-makingforanyinvestor.TheCapitalAssetPricingModel(CAPM)isoneofthemostwidelyusedtoolsfordeterminingthisrequiredrateofreturnthattheinvestorshouldearnonequityinvestmentsandthatshouldholdinequilibriumintheequitymarket.Themodelprovidesarelativelyobjectiveapproachtowardsdeterminingtherequiredrateofreturn,andisgroundedinthesimplisticchiefassumptionthattheriskofanassetisdeterminedbasedontheasset’scontributiontosystematicriskoverandabovetherisk-freerate.

Background and context

Required rate of return = Risk free rate + ß (Equity risk premium)

Therefore,giventhewidespreadacceptanceanduseoftheCAPMworldwide,estimatingtheERPbecomescrucialtothedecision-makingprocess.

ERPplaysasignificantroleinthefollowingkeyareasofinvestmentandpolicydecisions:• Intheworldofcorporatefinance,ERPisimportantwhile

determiningthecostofequityandcostofcapitalforfirmsfortheirinternaldecision-makingprocesstooptimisethedebt-to-equityratiosanddecidinguponinvestments,buy-backandpolicies,etc.

• Inareasofvaluationsandcapitalbudgeting,itisusedtoarriveatthefairvalueofequityinvestmentsornetpresentvaluesforprojectsservingasaproxyforthediscountratetodeterminethepresentvalueofexpectedfuturecashflows.

• ERPisalsousedasagaugeofmarketsentimentfortheequitymarketsasitprovidesdirectiontowardsinvestorconfidenceasaproxyfortheopportunitycostofinvesting.

• Itisoftenusedasacheckintheindividualsavingversusinvestmentdecision-makingprocesswhileputtingasideanamountforfutureconsumptionpurposessuchasretirementorhealthcareneeds,aswellasallocationofwealthtodifferentassetclasses.

06ValuationInsights

Asdiscussedintheprevioussections,owingtotheimportanceandwidespreaduseofERP,theapproachandmethodologyfollowedtoestimateERPiscritical.Evenforlong-establishedanddevelopedequitymarkets,estimatingthemagnitudeofERPischallengingandcouldbeareasonforalteringinvestmentdecisions.

Broadly,threeapproachesexistforestimatingERP:• HistoricalEstimate• Forward-LookingEstimate• Survey-BasedEstimate

Forthepurposesofouranalysis,wehaveconsideredtheHistoricalEstimateandForward-Lookingapproaches.Underboththeapproaches,wehaveconsideredacut-offfortheestimatedateof31December2018forallmarketinputs.

Historical EstimateERPunderthisapproachisestimatedasanaverageofexcessreturnscalculatedasthedifferencebetweenthetotalreturnforanequitymarketandthereturnontherisk-freeassetsofvariousinvestmenthorizons.Thisapproachisoftenconsideredasareliablechoiceofestimation,asitisbasedontheassumptionsofhomogeneousmarketsandmarketefficiencyoveralongperiod.Averagereturnsintheequitymarketprovideasaproxyforunbiasedestimateofinvestors’expectations.

Input estimatesWhileestimatingtheERPusingthisapproach,selectionofthefollowinginputsisimportant:

• Market portfolioThemarketportfoliousedtoestimatethereturninequitymarketsisoftenbasedonabroad-basedequitymarketindexwhichservesasaproxyofthecountry’sequitymarketandisreflectiveoftheeconomicconditionsofthecountry.

WehaveusedtheTotalReturnNifty50indexastherepresentativeoftheequitymarketinIndia,basedonthefollowingfactors:

– Theindexrepresentsandisreflectiveoftheeconomicconditionsofthecountry.

– Thetotalvolumestradedontheindexreflectasignificantportionoftheliquidityintheequitymarketofthecountry.

Approach and methodology

– TheindexwaslaunchedinApril1996andhasasufficienttradinghistorytocarryouttheestimationofERPwithoutcompromisingonthetimeperiodrequiredfortheestimate.

– Thecomponentsoftheindexconstituteabroadmixofindustriesandsectorsinthecountry.

ThefollowingtableisabriefsnapshotofthecharacteristicsofNifty50:

Table 1: Sector representation of Nifty 50

Sector Weight (%)

Financialservices 37.18%

Energy 15.44%

Informationtechnology 14.82%

Consumergoods 10.80%

Automobile 6.59%

Metals 3.81%

Construction 3.69%

Pharmaceuticals 2.53%

Cementandcementproducts 1.63%

Telecommunications 1.55%

Fertilisersandpesticides 0.75%

Mediaandentertainment 0.60%

Services 0.59%

Source:NationalStockExchangeofIndia

ValuationInsights07

Closing prices of Total Return Nifty 50 Index (June 2001 to December 2018)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Jun-

01Ju

n-02

Jun-

03Ju

n-04

Jun-

05Ju

n-06

Jun-

07Ju

n-08

Jun-

09Ju

n-10

Jun-

11Ju

n-12

Jun-

13Ju

n-14

Jun-

15Ju

n-16

Jun-

17Ju

n-18

Risk-free rate of returnThechoicetobemadefortherisk-freerateisoftenthetenureoftheratetobeconsidered.Inthespecificcaseofanupward-slopingyieldcurve,wheretheyieldsonlongertermbondsarelargerthantheyieldsonshortertermbonds,whichisalsowitnessedinIndia,therisk-freeratebasedonlongertenuresispreferredovershortertermsforthefollowingreasons:

• Long-termyieldsarelesssusceptible/sensitivetounexpectedinflationshocks.

• BasedontheusesofERPasmentionedpreviously,themostcommonofthembeingforthedeterminationofthecostofequityunderCAPM,long-termrisk-freerateisalsosynonymouswithinvestorexpectationsoflong-termreturns.

Wehaveusedthe10-yearrisk-freerateaspublishedbyClearingCorporationofIndiaLimited(CCIL).Therisk-freeratepublishedbyCCILisbasedontheNelson-Siegel-Svenssonmodel.

Time periodForthechoiceoftimeperiodforthesampleconsideredtoestimatetheERP,wehaveconsideredthelongesttenureavailablebasedontheavailabilityofdatatoincreasetheprecisionofourestimation.Sincetherisk-freeratepublishedbyCCILwasavailablefromJune2001,wehaveconsideredtheperiodfromJune2001toDecember2018.

Duringthistimeperiod,wehaveconsideredvariousinvestmenthorizons,withtheshortestinvestmenthorizonofoneyear,andthenestimatedtheERPfortheseinvestmenthorizons.

10-year zero coupon yield (June 2001 to December 2018)

Jun-

01Ju

n-02

Jun-

03Ju

n-04

Jun-

05Ju

n-06

Jun-

07Ju

n-08

Jun-

09Ju

n-10

Jun-

11Ju

n-12

Jun-

13Ju

n-14

Jun-

15Ju

n-16

Jun-

17Ju

n-18

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Types of meanThechoiceofmeanusedtoestimatetheriskpremiumhasanimportantimpactontheestimate,andthechoiceremainsbetweenarithmeticandgeometricmean.WehaveusedthearithmeticmeantoestimatetheERPoveralltheinvestmenthorizonsasitbestrepresentssingle-periodholdingreturns,whicharesynchronoustothechoiceofmodel,theERPisusedwith,iemostofthemajorfinancemodelsincludingCAPMandothermulti-factormodelsaresingle-periodreturnmodels.

MethodologyToestimatetheERPundertheHistoricalEstimateapproach,wefollowedthefollowingmethodology:

WeestimatedthecompoundedannualisedgrowthintheTotalReturnNifty50Indexpricesandbondpricesbasedonthe10-yearzerocouponyieldsforvariousinvestmenthorizonsas:

Return=Index closing at n2

Index closing at n1( (365

(n2 - n1)

Wethenestimatedtheexcessreturnas:

Excess return = Return on TR Nifty 50 - Return on bond prices

Thereafter,weincorporatedaforward-lookingassumptionintheanalysisbyeliminatingthesupply-sidecomponent.Thesupply-sideadjustmenttakesintoaccounttheearningsthatcompaniesgenerate(supply).Itisestimatedbyremovingthe

08ValuationInsights

growthintheprice-to-earningsratiofromtheexcessreturnasestimatedabove.

Theunderlyingargumentformakingtheaboveadjustmentisthatforamaturedeconomy,long-termgrowthintheprice-to-earningsratioisnotexpectedtoimproveinperpetuity;

Theabovematrixsummarisestheannualisedexcessreturnbetweenthesampledatesshowninthefirstcolumnandrow.Forexample,between13October2017and19October2018,theannualisedexcessreturnofTotalReturnNifty50overthebondpricesbasedon10-yearzerocouponyield,andadjustedforthegrowthintheprice-to-earningsratio,is1.1%.Asmentionedpreviously,theminimumperiodbetweentwodateswasfixedatoneyear.

ConclusionTable 2: Snapshot of ERP calculation under the Historical Estimate approach

Dates 13 Oct 17 27 Oct 17 3 Nov 17 10 Nov 17 17 Nov 17 24 Nov 17 1 Dec 17 8 Dec 17 15 Dec 17 22 Dec 17

19 Oct 18 1.1%

26 Oct 18 1.0%

2 Nov 18 1.2% 0.9%

9 Nov 18 1.2% 0.8% 0.3%

16 Nov 18 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% -0.2%

30 Nov 18 0.4% 0.1% -0.5% -0.9% -1.2% -0.5%

7 Dec 18 0.1% -0.2% -0.7% -1.1% -1.4% -0.7% -0.5%

14 Dec 18 0.1% -0.3% -0.8% -1.2% -1.5% -0.8% -0.5% -0.5%

21 Dec 18 -0.1% -0.4% -0.9% -1.3% -1.6% -0.9% -0.7% -0.7% -0.5%

28 Dec 18 0.3% -0.1% -0.5% -1.0% -1.2% -0.5% -0.3% -0.3% -0.1% -0.1%

ThearithmeticmeanofERPsthuscalculatedatvariousdatesforallinvestmenthorizonswasthencalculatedtoconcludeonthelong-termERPforIndiaundertheHistoricalEstimateapproach,whichwasestimatedat:

therefore,inthelong-run,thegrowthinexpectedmarketpricesofcompaniescannotbesustainedbasedonlyonthedifferentialofmarketpricestothecompanies’earningsreflectingefficientmarkets.Therefore,theexcessreturnisadjustedtoarriveatERPasfollows:

ERP = Return on TR Nifty 50 - Return on bond prices - Return on PE

ERP=5.68%

ValuationInsights09

Forward-Looking EstimateForward-lookingestimatestocalculatetheimpliedERPprevalentintheeconomy,indirectlycapturedinthecurrentmarketvalueoftheequitymarket,isanotherimportantapproachtoestimatetheERP.TheimportanceofthisapproachstemsfromthefactthatERPtoalargeextentisbasedoninvestorexpectationsofeconomicandfinancialmetricsgoingforward.Theseestimatesarelesssubjectivetoissuesofnon-stationarityanddatabiasesascomparedtohistoricalestimates,andthereforehistoricalestimatesandforward-lookingestimatesareoftenusedinconjunction.

Theapproachofforward-lookingestimatestoarriveattheERPisgroundedintherealitythatthetotalvalueoftheequitymarketasrepresentedbyabroadequityindex,reflectedinitsmarketcapitalisation,isthepresentvalueofallthefuturecashflowsexpectedtobeearnedintheequitymarketwhichareinturnrepresentedbytheexpectedfuturecashflowsoftheconstituentsoftheequityindex.

Thediscountratewhichequatesthepresentvalueofexpectedfuturecashflowstothetotalmarketcapitalisationofalltheconstituentsoftheindexrepresentsthetotalmarketreturnexpectationbyinvestorsintheequitymarket.Thereafter,ERPisestimatedasthedifferencebetweenthetotalmarketreturnandtherisk-freerate.

ERP = Market return - Risk free rate

MethodologyUnderthisapproach,weconsideredthefollowingmethodologytoestimatetheERP:

• WeusedtheFreeCashFlowstoEquity(FCFE)approachtoestimatetheexpectedfuturecashflowsforeachoftheconstituentsoftheNifty50Index.

FCFE = Cash flows from operations-Interest expense-Capital expenditure + Increase (Decrease) in net borrowings

• Weconsideredamulti-stagegrowthmodeltoestimatetheexpectedfuturecashflowsforeachoftheconstituentsofNifty50fromFY2019throughFY2028,andthereafterconsideredaterminalperiodwhichrepresentstheexpectedfreecashflowsinperpetuity.

– ToestimatetheFCFEfortheperiodFY2019throughFY2021,wereliedonconsensusanalystestimatesforeachcomponentofFCFE.

– Thereafter,futurefreecashflowsfromtheperiodFY2022toFY2028wereextrapolatedtoreachanormalisedgrowthrateof7.50%intheterminalperiod,whichisbasedon10-yearzerocouponyieldasof31December2018aspublishedbyCCIL.

• TheFCFEfortheindexwasthencalculatedbyweighingtheFCFEsofeachoftheindexconstituentsbytheweightsofeachconstituentintheindexasof31December2018.

• TheFCFEfortheterminalperiodwasthencapitalisedusingtheGordonGrowthModeltoarriveattheterminalvalueasof31March2028.Thepresentvalueunderthismodelisestimatedas:

Terminal value=(Market return-g)

(FCFE(n-1) )*(1+g)

where

(n-1) is the period ending 31 March 2028

g is the long-term sustainable growth rate of 7.5%

(based on 10-year zero coupon yield as of 31 December 2018 as published by CCIL)

• Basedontheabove-estimatedcashflows,weestimatedtheimpliedmarketreturn,whichequatesthepresentvaluesofsuchcashflowstotheadjustedmarketcapitalisationoftheindex,asfollows:

Market capitalisation of Nifty 50

Present value of terminal value

= +(1+Market return)n

∑FCFEn

where

Market capitalisation of Nifty 50 as of 31 December 2018 was adjusted for non-operating assets such as cash and cash equivalents, long-term investments, etc.

10ValuationInsights

ConclusionBasedontheaboveestimates,wearrivedatamarketreturnof15.17%,whichwasthenusedtoarriveattheimpliedERPunderCAPMasfollows:

ERP=Beta

Market return - Risk free rate

Therisk-freerateconsideredasof31December2018was7.50%,whichisbasedonthe10-yearzerocouponyieldaspublishedbyCCIL.Abetaof1.0xforthemarketportfoliowasthenconsideredtoconcludeonthelong-termERPforIndiaundertheForward-Lookingapproach,whichwasestimatedas:

ERP=7.67%

PleasenotethattheERPasestimatedundertheForwardEstimateApproachisbasedontherisk-freerateprevailingasoftheestimateddateof31December2018.Whileaminorchangeintherisk-freerateshouldnotimpactthefundamentalexpectationasarrivedatunderthisapproach,anysignificantchangeintherisk-freeratemayleadtoamaterialchangeintheERPexpectation,andtherebyrequirere-estimation.

Conclusion – ERPBasedonthearithmeticmeanofERPsestimatedunderboththeapproachesasdescribedabove,webelievethatanERP (rounded) of 6.75%canbeconsideredasareasonablepremiumforinvestingintheequitymarketsintheIndianeconomy.

ValuationInsights11

• ClearingCorporationofIndiaLimited

• ThomsonReutersDatabase

• CapitalIQDatabase

• NationalStockExchangeofIndia

Acknowledgements

Sources

Editorial review Design

TanmayMathur GurpreetSingh

Authors

ManishSaxena

AmitBora

PriyankaJain

PranjalKapoor

VibhorSinghal

For media queries, please contact:

Spriha Jayati E:spriha.jayati@in.gt.comM:+919323744249

12ValuationInsights

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