equity research report ways2capital 09 may 2016
TRANSCRIPT
TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : The Market has opened lower on Monday on the back of weak global
cues. The Nifty was down 51 points at 7798. Asia markets took sell in may sentiments to
heart, The Bank of Japan’s surprise decision to not to infuse further stimulus in the
economy. Oil prices dipped on sign that production in the middle east is continuing to rise,
Sentiments globally took a beating as manufacturing data in major world economies
brought back fresh concerns over global economic growth. On the domestic front Quarter
fourth results of companies surprised more companies are reporting better number than
expectation. Widening stress in banking sector sluggish economic indicators is indicating
difficult time ahead. “ A sustainable move below for Nifty 7700 level could possibly
accelerate the ongoing downward momentum and the correction could then extend till
7,600-7,516 levels. If the Nifty Sustain the 7700 level we may witness some positive
movement in the market in upcoming week. The strong Support for Nifty is 7700-7640
and Resistance 7780-7850.
BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty has opened Negative on Monday down by 181 points
at 16614. The Several Public Sector Banks including State Bank of India are yet to raise
funds totalling over Rs. 22,000 crore from markets, for which they were granted
permission by the government the Finance Minister Arun Jaitealy said on Friday. The
Reserve Bank of India governor in a reply submitted to the Public Accounts Committee ,
which had sought the reasons for the "ballooning" of the stressed assets in the banking
system, listed six reasons. Scheduled commercial banks credit grew by 9.7 per cent in the
quarter ended December helped by higher growth in advances of private sector banks RBI
said. from the global front the strong US economic data suggest that June fed rate hike
may possible. The Strong support for Nifty is 16300-16100 and Resistance is 16500-
16750.
Monday, 09 May 2016
TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
7850 7756 7709 7662 7568
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
8347 7963 7771 7579 7195
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
8347 7963 7771 7579 7195
BANK NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
16733 16419 16262 16105 15791
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
18139 17073 16540 16007 14941
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
18139 17073 16540 16007 14941
MOVING AVERAGE 21 DAYS 50 DAYS 100 DAYS 200 DAYS
NIFTY 7801 7616 7579 7852
BANK NIFTY 16346 15711 15706 16688
PARABOLIC SAR DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
NIFTY 7956 7379 6840
BANK NIFTY 17038 14574 17596
PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart -
On the Above given chart of Nifty has applied the Parabolic SAR along with Channel
Line these are the trend identifying pattern and made the Resistance level in the Nifty
daily chart that made on the above given chart we have draw the Trend line for more than
the week period and it is not able to break the up level. However in upcoming trading
session it could come back the level which is the strong Support for the Nifty50 around
7800. Now we are expecting that if the Nifty is able to sustain the 7750 level we may
witness the consolidation trend of Nifty for some more sessions on the other hand if Nifty
rebound the 7800-7850 level again we may see the positive rally in the index. The Strong
Support for Nifty50 is 7750-7800 and the Resistance is 7850-7900.
PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Details of Chart-
On the Above given chart of Bank Nifty has applied the Channel line along with MACD
these are the trend identifying pattern and made the Resistance level in the Bank Nifty
daily chart that made on the above given chart we have draw the Channel line for more
than the week period and it is not able to break the up level. However in upcoming
trading session it could break the upper level which is the strong Resistance for the
Nifty50 around 16700. Now we are expecting that if the Bank Nifty is able to sustain the
16700 level we may witness the consolidation trend of Bank Nifty for some more
sessions on the other hand if Bank Nifty rebound the 16700-16900 level again we may
see the positive rally in the index. The Strong Support for Bank Nifty is 16500-16350 and
the Resistance is 16900-17200.
NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS
COMPANY NAME R2 R1 PP S1 S2
ACC EQ 1426 1404 1396 1374 1366
ALBK EQ 56 54 54 52 52
AMBUJACEM EQ 221 219 217 215 213
ASIAN PAINT EQ 895 876 869 850 843
AXISBANK EQ 466 464 461 459 456
BAJAJ-AUTO EQ 2467 2458 2444 2435 2421
BANKBARODA EQ 153 150 149 146 145
BANKINDIA EQ 88 86 86 84 84
BHEL EQ 125 124 122 121 119
BHARTIARTL EQ 368 362 358 352 348
CIPLA EQ 546 544 539 537 532
COALINDIA EQ 285 284 280 279 275
DLF EQ 126 125 123 122 120
DRREDDY EQ 2958 2945 2906 2893 2854
GAIL EQ 393 375 369 351 345
GRASIM EQ 4153 4128 4105 4080 4057
HCLTECH EQ 740 738 729 727 718
HDFC EQ 1185 1173 1161 1149 1137
HDFCBANK EQ 1142 1139 1129 1125 1115
HEROMOTOCO EQ 2969 2948 2884 2863 2799
HINDALCO EQ 93 92 90 89 87
HINDUNILVR EQ 860 853 850 843 840
ICICIBANK EQ 222 218 215 211 208
ITC EQ 325 319 312 306 299
INDUSIND BANK EQ 1052 1046 1035 1029 1018
INFY EQ 1198 1195 1186 1183 1174
JINDALSTEL EQ 68 67 65 64 62
KOTAKBANK EQ 719 713 705 699 691
LT EQ 1285 1280 1267 1262 1249
M&M EQ 1344 1325 1316 1297 1288
MRF EQ 34240 34120 33760 33640 33280
MARUTI EQ 3849 3843 3822 3816 3795
ONGC EQ 212 212 209 209 206
ORIENTBANK EQ 87 85 84 82 81
RCOM EQ 55 55 54 53 52
RELCAPITAL EQ 391 387 382 378 373
RELIANCE EQ 980 977 973 970 966
RELINFRA EQ 526 522 518 514 510
RPOWER EQ 51 50 49 49 48
SBIN EQ 185 182 181 178 177
SSLT( VEDL) EQ 106 105 104 102 101
SUNPHARMA EQ 820 815 809 804 798
TATAMOTORS EQ 406 396 390 380 374
TATAPOWER EQ 73 71 70 69 67
TATASTEEL EQ 335 333 329 327 323
UNIONBANK EQ 121 119 117 115 113
TOP 15 ACHIEVERS // TOP 15 LOOSERS
NEXT WEEK STARS( AS PER ECHNICAL ANALYSIS PRIDICTION )
FUTURES PACK
NSE CASH : BUY HITACHIHOM NSE CASH ABOVE 1400 TGT 1530 SL 1355.
NSE CASH : BUY J&K BANK NSE CASH ABOVE 66 TGT 73 SL 64.
NSE CASH : BUY EMAMILTD NSE CASH ABOVE 1115 TGT 1226 SL 1080.
NSE CASH : BUY VGUARD NSE CASH ABOVE 1305 TGT 1440 SL 1260.
NSE CASH : BUY UTTAMSUGAR NSE CASH ABOVE 57.50 TGT 63 SL 55.50.
CASH PACK
NSE FUTURE : SELL JUSTDIAL FUTURE BELOW 760 TGT 700 SL 775.
NSE FUTURE : SELL HEXAWARE FUTURE BELOW 212 TGT 190 SL 220.
NSE FUTURE : SELL VEDL FUTURE BELOW 102.50 TGT 95 SL 104.
NSE FUTURE : BUY RELIANCE CAPITAL FUTURE ABOVE 488 TGT 540 SL 480.
NSE FUTURE : BUY TITAN FUTURE ABOVE 369 TGT 400 SL 360.
SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE CMP % CHANGE
1 IDEA 126.50 114.75 -9.29
2 HCL TECH 799.90 725.80 -9.26 H
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3 DR REDDY LAB 3083.35 2847.80 -7.65
4 ICICI BANK 240.10 222.25 -7.43 1. I
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6 TATA STEEL 347.60 333.75 -3.98 T
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8 WIPRO 553.10 536.85 -2.94 W
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10 BHARTIARTL 372.70 363.40 -2.50 B
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12 RELIACNE 996.70 975.90 -2.09 R
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13 INFY 1209.15 1184.60 -2.03
14 HINDUNILVR 876.25 859.20 -1.95 H
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15 TATA CONSULTEN 2529.75 2482.60 -1.79
SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV
CLOSE CMP % CHANGE
1 HDFC 1085.55 1191.60 +9.77
2 GAIL 363.20 388.+60 +6.99 G
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4 AURBINDO PHAR 764.35 810.60 +6.05 6. A
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5 NTPC 137.15 143.85 +4.89
6 ASIAN PAINTS 873.10 910.20 +4.25 A
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7 MARUTI SUZUKI 3747.95 3871.55 +3.30
8 HDFC BANK 1113.95 1144 +2.70 H
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10 BHEL 125 127.80 +2.24 B
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11 CIPLA 528.25 539.50 +2.13
12 KOTAK BANK 701.45 713.70 +1.75 K
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13 INDUSIND BANK 1035 1052.55 +1.70
14 LUPIN 1576.30 1602.50 +1.66 L
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15 L & T 1259.55 1278.20 +1.48
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% AMBUJA CEMENT
1. B
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NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
India can save $50 billion if logistics costs are brought down to 9% of GDP - India
can save up to $50 billion if logistics costs are brought down from 14 per cent to nine per
cent of country’s gross domestic product thereby making domestic goods more
competitive in global markets, an ASSOCHAM-Resurgent India joint study said
today.“With expected inflow of new investments owing to government’s thrust on
promoting domestic manufacturing sector, India’s cargo and logistics industry is likely to
clock a compounded annual growth rate of about 16 per cent during the course of next
few years,” noted the study conducted by ASSOCHAM jointly with knowledge firm
Resurgent India. “The ‘Make in India,’ campaign will see investments connect India to
global production networks that would generate new business for logistics in the country
thereby making it an attractive location to do business as compared to other regions in the
world.
India's manufacturing activity slows to four-month low in April - PMI data indicated
that Indian manufacturers raised output at a slower pace in April as new business inflows
were broadly unchanged during the month. The upturn in new export orders was
sustained, although growth was at a six-month low. There were divergences with regards
to stock levels, with holdings of finished goods continuing to fall while pre-production
inventories rose again. On the price front, input costs increased at the fastest rate in 11
months, whereas charge inflation eased since March. Reflecting softer contributions from
four of its five sub-components, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India PMI– a composite
single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance – fell from 52.4 in March to 50.5 in
April. The latest figure pointed to the weakest improvement in business conditions in the
current four-month sequence of above-50.0 readings.
Government expecting Rs 25 lakh crore investment for infra development: Nitin
Gadkari - The Government expects investments worth Rs. 25 lakh crore in roads,
railway and shipping infrastructure over the next three years, including setting up of 27
industrial clusters at ports at ~INR 8 lakh crore, Road Transport & Highways Minister
Nitin Gadkari said on Friday at an event in New Delhi. According to him, the Centre
plans to spend an additional Rs. 5 lakh crore on road, railway and ports connectivity
projects, apart from Rs. 8 lakh crore on 27 industrial clusters and smart cities at ports. He
also announced that the total award of highways projects will rise to INR 2 lakh crore by
May this year as compared to Rs. 1.6 lakh crore at present. Gadkari added that the figure
would rise to INR 5 lakh crore by May 2017.
Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI at 49.4 in April - Operating conditions
across China’s manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate in April, albeit marginally.
Output was little-changed from the previous month, as total new orders stagnated and
new export work fell for the fifth month in a row. Relatively weak market conditions and
muted client demand contributed to a further solid decline in staff numbers. Companies
also displayed cautious inventory policies in April, with stocks of finished goods and
inputs both falling at faster rates. Prices data indicated that inflationary pressures
intensified across the sector in April, with input costs rising at the quickest pace since
January 2013, which in turn underpinned the quickest rise in output charges since
October 2011.
Services trade may play bigger role in GDP numbers -The government plans to enrich
and sharpen its data calculation by including detailed statistics on trade in services to
determine a more comprehensive economic growth figure for the country. The commerce
ministry has asked the statistics ministry to collect country-wise and product-wise data on
trade in services to compute an all-encompassing gross domestic product estimate.This
will give a better picture of India's exports and create a complete database of the goods
.and services trade. The statistics ministry plans to start collecting this data from July.
Raghuram Rajan's advisers worry over 2.1% decline in remittances to $68.9 billion
- External advisers of Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan are worried about
the monetary policy implications of slowing remittances by overseas Indians for the first
time since 2009 even though India does not rely significantly on such funds to meet
foreign exchange requirements. Remittances to India, the world's largest remittance
recipient, decreased 2.1% last year to $68.9 billion, a World Bank release had said earlier
this week. "This marks the first decline in remittances since 2009 it said.
Good monsoon holds key faster growth - Arun Jaitley - Finance Minister Arun Jaitley
on Thursday said India can grow at an even faster pace this year if predictions of good
monsoon hold up. Jaitley was speaking in Lok Sabha, which approved the Finance Bill
2016. good monsoon will improve agriculture and raise rural income," he said, adding
that the economy which had been expanding on back of public investment, highest
foreign direct investment and urban demand, could grow faster if rural demand is added.
The economy is projected to grow by 7.5% in this fiscal and the latest forecasts,
predicting an above-average rainfall after two years of drought, bore well.
I-T refunds worth Rs. 1.22 Lakh crore issued in FY’16 : Government - The Income
Tax department has issued 2.10 crore refunds totalling over Rs 1.22 lakh crore in 2015-
16, which saw 94 per cent the returns being filed online "During FY 2015-16, more than
2.10 crore refunds amounting to Rs 1,22,425 crore were paid compared to Rs 1,12,188
crore in the Financial Year 2014-15 and Rs 89,664 crore in the Financial Year 2013-14,"
a finance ministry said.
Government may offer bluechip PSU shares to FIIs, Domestic buyers - Faced with
lukewarm retail investor response, the government is mulling stake sale in selected
bluechip PSUs, including Oil India and ONGC, by offering shares only to institutional
investors.A top government official said that the Ministry of Finance is considering
opting for the Institutional Placement Programme route for diluting stake in bluechip
PSUs. Experience shows that timing of the market both in case of OFS and FPO has been
difficult. We are now considering to offer PSU shares to a clutch of FIIs and domestic
institutions to bid them out," the official told.
✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS
ICRA expects India's current account deficit to widen modestly to USD 25 billion in
FY2017, from an estimated USD 20 billion in FY2016, but be comfortably covered by
capital inflows. A favourable monsoon after a gap of two years would have a mixed
impact on trade in various sectors, boosting agricultural exports and limiting imports of
crude oil and coal while enhancing the demand for gold.
The Union finance ministry agreed to hike interest rate on provident fund deposits to
8.8% from the 8.7% decided by it earlier. The Central Board of Trustees had decided
8.8% interest rate, however, the finance ministry approved only 8.7% interest on PF
deposits citing lower earnings.
Asian Development Bank has forecast growth rate at 7.4% in 2016-17 as against 7.6%
during 2015-16. The details and reasons cited by ADB for lower growth rate during 2016-
17 are as under: Public investment will continue to be an important driver of growth, as
the Government is expected to use savings from oil to further boost Government
investment. However, the finances available to ramp up investment in 2016-17 will be
smaller than in 2015-16, given the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation and
increased outgo on account of a higher public sector wage bill.
After spending about Rs 3.5 lakh crore –almost equal to India’s subsidy and pensions
budget for 2015-16–over 10 years on the world’s largest rural jobs programme, it has
provided less than half the guaranteed 100 days of employment to 50 million poor
households. This is revealed in analysis of Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment
Guarantee data. Although the most money ever was spent during 2015-16, it was the
worst year ever in terms of assets created , a 23% decline from 2014-15.
Sebi is relooking at the rules to open the door wider for foreign portfolio investors. In
line with the government's credo of improving ease of doing business, investors from
some countries may get so-called most favoured nation status, simplifying the registration
process.
The Rajya Sabha passed the Mines and Minerals Amendment Bill. Earlier, Lok Sabha
passed this Mines and Minerals Development and Regulation Amendment Bill.
Growth in the eight core sectors jumped to a 16 month high of 6.4% in March due to
sharp pick-up in fertiliser and cement production and a commensurate rise in electricity
generation.
The Centre has approved seven foreign direct investment proposals worth Rs5.18bn
which includes ones from Helix Investment Holding, Alchymers ICM, Prime Living and
Gulf Quarry.
The government has granted infrastructure status to the shipyard industry, a move that
will help the sectoral players get long-term financing at cheaper rates.
The Supreme Court on Monday rejected the petition of the Telecom Regulatory
Authority of India seeking to transfer Interconnect Usage Charges.
India’s new GDP series seems to exaggerate the economy’s true growth rate. However,
this overestimation is likely to narrow over the next few quarters. We find that the
practice of ‘single deflation instead of ‘double deflation during a period of falling
commodity prices and sticky output inflation, artificially exaggerated growth prints. We
estimate that real manufacturing growth may have been overestimated by 450 bps in
FY16 as the divergence between output and input prices soared. We also believe that this
divergence has peaked and will normalise over the next six quarters.
The Lok Sabha passed the finance bill, retaining the excise duty on jewellers despite
opposition from some political parties.
Growth in India's services firms fell to a four-month low of 53.7 in April from 54.3 in
March on the back of new business growing slower than the previous months.
As many as 64 central public sector enterprises witnessed capital erosion to the tune of
Rs. 740 billion during 2014-15, according to a financial audit report by the Comptroller
and Auditor General of India on CPSEs.
India saved Rs. 70 billion of annual subsidy outgo on cooking gas last financial year
thanks to the implementation of the Direct Benefit Transfer in LPG scheme.
As many as 2,508 cities in 26 states have been selected under the 'Pradhan Mantri Awas
Yojana' for providing affordable houses to the urban poor.
The Mines Ministry has identified over 100 blocks for reconnaissance stage exploration
of minerals such as gold, diamond, bauxite, iron ore and limestone.
The Reserve Bank of India today released on its website, “Draft Guidelines for ‘on tap
Licensing of Universal Banks in the Private Sector”
Lok Sabha on Thursday passed Bankruptcy Bill. MoS Finance reportedly said that
Bankruptcy Law will bring in transparency and help the ease of doing business.
✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
NTPC Ltd's bond issue was oversubscribed 2.8 times in just 10 minutes after hitting the
market, raising a total of Rs. 10 billion which would be used for capital expenditure.
Reliance Power said its 4,000MW Sasan Power project achieved 100% plant load factor
in April this year.
Apollo Hospitals has signed a memorandum of understanding with William Osler Health
System (Osler) to collaborate on research and treatement services related to a range of
diseases including Diabetes, Cardiovascular Diseases and Cancer.
Alembic Pharma has received final approval from the US health regulator for
Lacosamide tablets, used for treatment of partial-onset seizures, in the American market.
Suzlon Group has commissioned 900 MW wind energy projects during the financial
year 2015-16, of which 520 MW was commissioned in Q4 FY16.
State Bank of India, HDFC to launch nationwide sale of Sahara properties.
Bajaj Auto Ltd. has started the fiscal on a positive note with domestic motorcycle sales
crossing the 0.2 million mark for the first time in three years.
Vedanta Group firm, THL Zinc Ltd, has sought a rollover of a controversial USD1.25
billion loan, taken from Cairn India in July 2014. The loan, which was extended for two
years at floating rate of 3% plus LIBOR, was to be repaid by July 2016.
Paytm has joined hands with Wipro Ltd. to create the requisite technology infrastructure
for its upcoming payments bank business.
Expressing concerns over the large amount of dues that need to be recovered by all coal
PSUs, including Coal India Ltd. Rs110.32 billion, a Parliamentary Panel has asked the
government as well as the state-owned firms in the sector to take steps for the recovery.
PTC India has bagged the largest number of power supply orders at competitive rates to
Uttarakhand and Kerala state utilities at a recently concluded short term power
procurement auction.
Marksans Pharma has received approval from the US health regulator for its Metformin
Hydrochloride tablets, used for treatment of diabetes, in the American market.
Indraprastha Gas Limited has set up a record 72 CNG filling stations in first four
months of 2016, to meet the rising demand for the fuel.
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd will sell certain steel and mining assets and will expand its
power business
portfolio into renewable energy and transmission and distribution , CEO Ravi Uppal has
said.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services' chairman Motilal Oswal said the company plans to
infuse Rs 2 billion in Aspire Home Finance Corp in the current financial year on
expectation of strong growth in the housing finance business.
Google and Idea Cellular have formally rolled out carrier billing facility for the telco's
over 180mn subscribers in the country, allowing them to pay for their purchases on Play
Store, which is the world's largest app store.
Twenty months after threatening to pull out of India's largest metro rail project coming up
in Hyderabad, citing unfavourable business environment, Larsen and Toubro publicly
admitted concerns over the project's viability, insisting on deep-rooted negotiations
among stakeholders.
Reliance Jio, the telecom arm of Reliance Industries, has extended the trial launch of its
4G services to the public through an invite system, driven by its group employees.
Following Supreme Court's interim order, asking tobacco companies to comply with the
Union health ministry's directive to print tobacco packs with 85% health warnings, ITC
Limited has shut its factories.
Raymond Ltd is reducing its capital expenditure from INR 300 crore in FY16 to INR
250 crore in the current fiscal year, reports a business daily.
NMDC Ltd has partnered with Indian Space Research Organisation to make use of
satellite-based geological mapping capability for mineral exploration.
National Aluminium Co Ltd has agreed to buy back 25% of its shares from the
government.
✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
The government is expected to clean up IDBI Bank's pool of nonperforming assets by
transferring them to a fund before offering up to 10% equity to strategic investors as part
of the plan to reduce its stake below 50%.
Fast-growing Yes Bank Ltd. and the old private sector Federal Bank have been the first
ones off the block to hit Gujarat International Finance Tech-City and are hoping to make
the most of easy regulations, low operational costs and the opportunity to raise dollar-
denominated funds.
ICICI Bank Managing Director Chanda Kochhar and other senior executives decided to
forgo their bonuses for the past fiscal year, as the nation's second-largest lender by assets
reported disastrous fourth-quarter earnings on Friday.
ICICI Bank Ltd. is auctioning a prime property of tyre manufacturer Dunlop India
spread over an acre on the upscale Annie Besant Road in Mumbai to recover loans to
Ruia Group companies, two people with knowledge of the development said.
Kotak Mahindra Bank today announced opening of its IFSC Banking Unit at the
Gujarat International Finance Tec-City to meet the requirements of offshore banking
operations from India.
Banks credit registered a growth of 9.7 per cent in December 2015 as compared to
December 2014 largely due to higher credit growth of private sector banks," the Reserve
Bank said in a release here today.
Public sector Canara Bank today said it has revised the lending rates based on the
marginal cost of funds for May to 8.80-9.35 per cent.
Private sector lender YES Bank Limited on Thursday said it has been granted an in-
principle approval by the Securities and Exchange Board of India for acting as Custodian
of Securities. The bank has 12 months to establish the business.
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