equity research report 29 february 2016 ways2capital

7/24/2019 Equity Research Report 29 February 2016 Ways2Capital

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TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )

NIFTY FIFTY : - The market has opened flat on Monday with negative bias on a very crucial week. The

Nifty is up 2.85 points at 7213.60. The Nifty was traded up 35 points , After the global rating agency

Moody’s pegged India’s growth at 7.5% for next two years. Asian share markets edged cautiously higher

on Monday as investors awaited a rush of February industry surveys to take the pulse of the global

economy, while sterling suffered on concerns the UK might yet vote to leave the European Union. US oil

prices fell as much as 5 percent on Tuesday after Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi ruled out any production

cuts , The market has opened sharply lower on Wednesday, tracking weak global cues. The Nifty declined

34.85 points or 0.49 percent to 7074.70. Asia stocks traded mostly down, with a combination of low oil

prices, concerns over China and weak overnight data weighing on investor sentiment and miss in the US

consumer confidence index. All eyes would be on the ongoing Budget session of Parliament. The Nifty50

traded on a cautious note on Thursday ahead of Rail Budget and February future & option expiry. The

Support for Nifty is 6950-6820 and Resistance for Nifty is 7080-7200.

BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty give Gap Down opening on Monday at 14331 by 13 points. The Bank

Nifty is currently trading at 13853. Chunky loans from large public sector unit banks have driven the surge

in non-performing assets in banking System , At Rs 4 lakh crore, bad loans exceed market value of PSU

banks , investors carry the burden of Rs 150 as bad loans, which have cumulatively ballooned 1.5 times the

market value of these lenders. The step has taken by RBI and the Govt. to overcome the debt of PSU Banks

through the Strategic Debt Restructuring , The Support for Bank Nifty is 13400-12900 and Resistance for

Bank Nifty is 14000-14600.

TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )

NIFTY

DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

7218 7086 7020 6954 6822

WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

7914 7356 7077 6798 6240

MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

9323 7883 7163 6443 5003



BANK NIFTY

DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

14639 14061 13772 13483 12905

WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

16783 14887 13939 12991 11095

MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

120443 16351 14305 12259 8167

MOVING AVERAGE 21 DAYS 50 DAYS 100 DAYS 200 DAYS

NIFTY 7212 7464 7723 7980

BANK NIFTY 14420 15389 16325 17163

PARABOLIC SAR DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

NIFTY 7180 7600 8310BANK NIFTY 14190 16490 19070



PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY AND BANK NIFTY )

Depiction of Chart On the On the Above given weekly chart of Nifty Applied Bollinger Band along with Parabolic SAR. And t

Bollinger Band is in the spread range it has break the lower band of the Bollinger Band and after breaking the level it has given the Gap

opening which is indicating the Bull movement for the Nifty the crucial Support for Nifty is 6950-6920 and the Resistance for Nifty

7080-7200 , if the Nifty is able to break the level of 7080 we may witness the level of 7200 for next week.



BANK NIFTY MACD

Details of Chart On the Above given weekly chart of Bank Nifty applied Bollinger Band along with Parabolic SAR. and the Bollinge

Band is in the spread range it has touched the lower band but not break. the Bollinger Band and after touching the level it has reverse o

Bull side on the other hand on the creating dot Upside which is the clear signal towards the consolidation Market For The Bank Nifty

however the Bank Nifty crucial Support is 13400 and the Resistance is 14060 . if the Bank nifty is crossing the 14000 level we may

witness the 14200-14400 Levels.



NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS

COMPANY NAME R2 R1 PP S1 S2

ACC EQ 1242 1226 1218 1202 1194

ALBK EQ 46 45 44 43 42

AMBUJACEM EQ 195 192 189 186 183

ASIAN PAINT EQ 884 874 864 854 844AXISBANK EQ 394 390 386 382 378

BAJAJ-AUTO EQ 2400 2320 2270 2190 2140

BANKBARODA EQ 139 135 131 127 123

BANKINDIA EQ 87 85 84 83 81

BHEL EQ 97 95 93 92 90

BHARTIARTL EQ 328 323 320 315 312

CIPLA EQ 532 528 524 520 516

COALINDIA EQ 319 315 308 304 297

DLF EQ 90 89 87 85 83

DRREDDY EQ 3038 3016 3000 2978 2962

GAIL EQ 320 313 307 299 294GRASIM EQ 3461 3381 3330 3250 3199

HCLTECH EQ 823 815 808 807 800

HDFC EQ 1072 1057 1042 1034 1019

HDFCBANK EQ 965 953 942 946 934

HEROMOTOCO EQ 2667 2644 2621 2619 2596

HINDALCO EQ 68 67 67 67 66

HINDUNILVR EQ 854 848 842 840 834

ICICIBANK EQ 187 172 184 180 177

ITC EQ 293 289 286 283 280

INDUSIND EQ 831 819 812 800 792

INFY EQ 1143 1126 1114 1097 1084

JINDALSTEL EQ 57 55 54 52 50

KOTAKBANK EQ 627 617 610 600 593

LT EQ 1134 1110 1096 1072 1058

M&M EQ 1255 1242 1229 1216 1203

MRF EQ 32832 32616 32358 32142 31884

MARUTI EQ 3550 3482 3441 3373 3332

ONGC EQ 222 219 214 211 206

ORIENTBANK EQ 82 80 79 77 76

RCOM EQ 57 55 54 52 50

RELCAPITAL EQ 335 330 323 318 311RELIANCE EQ 962 953 947 937 931

RELINFRA EQ 421 416 409 404 397

RPOWER EQ 47 46 44 43 41

SBIN EQ 161 159 155 153 149

SSLT( VEDL) EQ 74 73 71 70 68

SUNPHARMA EQ 889 886 877 865 856

TATAMOTORS EQ 309 306 301 298 293

TATAPOWER EQ 59 58 58 57 57

TATASTEEL EQ 255 252 247 244 239

UNIONBANK EQ 119 114 110 105 101



TOP 15 ACHIEVERS // TOP 15 LOOSERS

NSE FUTURE :

PETRONET FUTURE : PETRONET FUTURE MOVES IN BEARISH TREND TODAY IT

CONTINUOUSLY MOVES IN BEARISH TREND ON DAILY CHART WE CAN EXPECT FURTHER

DOWNSIDE MOVEMENT IN IT BELOW 230 TGT 200 SL 235.

JINDALSTEL FUTURE : JINDALSTEL MOVES IN BEARISH TREND TODAY ON DAILY CHART

OF IT STRONG SUPPORT MADE WE CAN MADE SHORT POSITION IN IT BELOW THE

SUPPORT LEVEL OF 53 TGT 45 SL 57.

BHEL FUTURE : AFTER A LONG BEARISH RALLY BULLISH TREND SHOWS iIN BHEL

TODAY ALSO RESISTANCE LEVEL 97 CAN BE SEEN ON BHEL CHART WE CAN EXPECT

BULLISH TREND IN BHEL ABOVE 97.50 TGT 110 SL 90.

COALINDIA FUTURE : COAL INDIA MOVES IN BULLISH TREND TODAY ON INTRADAY

CHART OF COAL INDIA STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL CAN BE SEEN WE CAN MADE LONG

POSITION IN COAL INDIA ABOVE 297 TGT 330 SL 285

ASHOKLEY FUTURE : WE CAN MADE LONG POSITION IN ASHOKLEY FUTURE ABOVE THE

LEVEL OF 87 TGT100 SL 82

SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE CMP % CHANGE

1 BHEL 105.75 95.10-10.07 %

2 MARUTI SUZUKI 3749 3409-9.07 %

3 GAIL LTD. 324 304 -6.19 %

4 ADANI PORTS 212.50 200.10-5.84 %

5 BAJAJ AUTO LTD. 2357345 2238.10-5.06 %

6 NTPC 128.00 121.55-5.04 %

7 YES BANK LTD. 720.35 686.55-4.69 %

8 GRASIM 3455.80 3300.60-4.49 %

9 POWER GRID 139.60 133.65-4.26 %

10 AXIS BANK LTD. 403.10 386.35-4.16 %

11 BANK OF BARODA 138.80 132.75-4.01 %

12VEDANTA 74.40 71.80

-3.49 %

13 ICICI BANK 190.75 184.80-3.12 %

14 ITC LTD. 299.85 290.95

-2.97 %

15 ACC 1226.05 1190.90 -2.87 %

SR.NO SCRIPT NAMEPREV

CLOSECMP % CHANGE

1ONGC 200.35 216.05 +7.84 %

2 HINDALCO INDUS. 65.80 69.45 +5.55 %

3 HUL 812.55 849.90 +4.60 %

4 BOSCH LTD. 16140 16711 +3.53 %

5ZEEL 370 381 +2.85 %

6 M&M 1200 1230 +2.47 %

7INFOSYS 1097 1121 +2.12 %

8 SUN PHARMA 855.80 871.90 +1.88 %

9HEROMOTOCORP 2524 2555 +1.22 %

10 DR. REDDY LABS 2960 2994 +1.13 %

11CIPLA 519 524 +0.94 %

12 ASIAN PAINTS LTD. 856 862 0.77 %

13WIPRO LTD. 526 530 0.67 %

14 LIC HOUSING FIN 406 408 +0.57 %

15D B CORP LTD. 305 306.85 0.54 %



NSE CASH :

RUSHIL NSE CASH : LONG POSITION CAN BE MADE IN RUSHIL ABOVE 315 FOR TGT AND

SL OF 345 AND 305 RESPECTIVELY.

BALRAMCHIN NSE CASH : TRENDLINE BREAKOUT AND A NEW PRICE CYCLE IS

EXPECTED TO START IN BALRAMCHIN ABOVE THE LEVEL OF 84.LONG POSITION CAN BE

MADE ABOVE THAT LEVEL FOR TGT AND SL OF 92 AND 80.50.

ALKEM NSE CASH : LONG POSITION CAN BE MADE IN ALKEM ABOVE THE LEVEL OF 1292

WHICH IS ALSO A BREAKOUT LEVEL OF A HAMMER PATTERN ON DAILY CHART,1398 AND

1257 WOULD BE TGT AND SL RESPECTIVELY.

COX&KINGS NSE CASH : LONG POSITION CAN BE MADE ABOVE 152 FOR TGT OF 165 AND

SL OF 147.

GATI NSE CASH : LONG PODITION CAN BE MADE IN GATI ABOVE 106 FOR TGT OF 115 AND

SL OF 102.



NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK

FinMin releases Rs. 4 lakh crore to states under tax devolution - The Union

Government accepted the recommendations of the Fourteenth Finance Commission under

which there was a phenomenal increase in the tax devolution to the States due to increase

of share in the divisible pool of taxes from 32% to 42%. As per its commitment, in the

Union Budget for 2015-16, the Ministry of Finance made a provision of Rs. 5.24 lakh

crore under devolution of taxes to States as compared to the allocation of Rs.3.38 lakh

crore in 2014-15. So far, Rs. 411681.66 crore has been released to the States by way of

tax devolution and as per convention, three more installments will be released in March

2015 based on the tax collections till then.

Forex reserves rises by $347.20 mn - India’s foreign exchange reserves surged by

$347.2 mn in the week ended February 12 to $351.83 billion, according to RBI data.

Gold reserves remained unchanged. Foreign currency assets rose by $1.58 billion.

Infra sector expects higher budgetary allocations towards specified infra projects -

Pre-Budget Expectations on Infrastructure Sector, The infrastructure sector expects

higher budgetary allocations towards specified large infrastructure projects such as Bullet

trains, Dedicated Freight Corridors, Bharat Mala, Sagar Mala, Smart Cities, low-cost

airports, inland waterways development, etc. Compliance with Right to Fair

Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement

Act has increased the land acquisition cost and is now estimated to be in the range of Rs.

1,800-1,950 billion over next three odd years. This coupled with ambitious target

execution rate of 30 km/day would require doubling the budgetary allocation for the road

sector alone.

Budget session likely to get off to a stormy start on Feb 23 - After Prime Minister

Narendra Modi's meeting with leaders of opposition parties on February 16,

Parliamentary Affairs Minister M Venkaiah Naidu will hold another all-party meeting

tomorrow to reach out to political rivals for smooth functioning of Parliament. The same

day, Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan will also hold consultations with leaders of all

parties in the House. A meeting of the Congress Working Committee has been convened

by party chief Sonia Gandhi on the eve of the session. The deliberations at the meeting is

expected to set the tone for the Budget session. At the Monday meeting, Congress will



finalize its floor strategy for the session. Chairing a meeting of leaders of all parties from

Rajya Sabha, Chairman Hamid Ansari yesterday reminded them "time has come to assure

the public that parliamentary democracy does work and is sensitive to the needs of the

people." The remarks come in the backdrop of last two sessions being a virtual washout

with the opposition and government locking horns over a number of issues including the

key reform measure of GST.

7.6% GDP outlook is significant : Shaktikanta Das - India's growth projection for the

current fiscal is "very, very significant", Shaktikanta Das has said and promised more

measures to boost economic growth. "India remains a bright spot amid the global

slowdown. We live in a global village. Therefore, whatever happens in any part of the

world affects us because India over the last several years is getting increasingly

globalised," economic affairs secretary Shaktikanta Das said on the finance ministry's on

Monday

Budget 2016: Down to the wire, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to meet economists -

In an unconventional move, Finance Minister Arun Jaitely will meet economists and

market experts on Saturday, barely 48 hours ahead of his Budget speech on Monday.

Minister of State Jayant Sinha and other key Finance Ministry officials will be part of the

meeting, sources said. While the agenda is under wraps, it is learnt that the Finance

Ministry sent out invitations over email on Tuesday for the 90-minute meeting that is

scheduled to start at 11 am. “The meeting is aimed at sensitising economists about the

backdrop in which the expenditure budget has been prepared and to make them appreciate

the difficult situation,” an official source said.

Rail budget to unveil massive plan with increased outlay of Rs 1.25 lakh crore - The

Railway Budget 2016 is likely to unveil massive capacity creation plan in the sector with

an increased outlay of about Rs. 1.25 lakh crore, as per reports. Safety upgradation,

electrification, doubling and modernisation of yards is considered as the top priority this

budget session. Reports state that Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu will have to depend onthe External Budgetary Resources for the execution of this plan since the projects are

likely to be funded by EBR.

Indian PSU banks need more Govt fund to susutain credit profile: Moody's -

Moody's Investors Service says that the credit profiles of Indian public sector banks will

worsen, if the government does not revise upwards its capital infusion plan for the banks

in the Indian upcoming budget to be presented on 29 February 2016. "While the reported

NPLs of the 11 public sector banks that we rate registered a significant 0.9%-4.1%



increase in the most recent quarter ended 31 December 2015, Moody's view of the true

underlying asset quality of these banks has remain unchanged, "says Srikanth Vadlamani,

a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.

Prabhu lives up to economic challenges: ASSOCHAM - Railway Minister Mr Suresh

Prabhu has given a no-tariff hike budget without compromising on the capital expenditure

for increasing carrying capacity, both passengers and freight even in a challenging

economic environment marked by a severe slowdown in the commodity sectors, which

are lifeline of the Railways’ earnings, ASSOCHAM President Sunil Kanoria said. While

committing himself to improving the Railways in terms of better passenger amenities and

adopting a service-provider approach to the industry, which is the main revenue customer

for it, Mr Prabhu has lived up to his reputation of being a financial wizard in banking on

non-budget resources for funding the capital plans. He knows it too well, there are limited

options through the Gross Budgetary Support.

Going Digital can save the country Rs.20,000 crores - The recent decision by the

Government of India to bring digital payments at par with cash is a watershed moment in

the creation of a truly digital India. In combination with Aadhaar and Jan Dhan Yojana,

this move constitutes the most wide ranging and ambitious program for the digital

transformation of the country. India is amongst the most cash intensive cash economies in

the world. India's cash to GDP ratio is 12%, which is 3-4 times that of comparable

economies like Brazil and South Africa. The cost of managing this high cash dependence

is over INR 20,000 Crores in the formal banking system and much more in the entire

economy. With this strong signal, we are on our way to wean the country off its

expensive and inefficient addiction to cash. Going digital will not only save the country

Crores of rupees, it will also provide consumers and merchants a more secure and

frictionless way of transacting. We are confident that the government’s continued

support for the digitization of payments will further fuel growth and innovation in the

sector, with significant long term socio-economic benefits to the Indian economy.

Economic Survey 2016: Panagariya bats for a 50 basis point rate cut by RBI to begin with

- The survey, which was presented by Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Panagariya

highlighted that the government remained on path of fiscal consolidation, implying that

RBI should now do what was required out of them i.e. monetary policy easing in order to

lift the growth of the economy; the target of which was set at conservative 7-7.5% in light

of global uncertainties and likely scenario of Fed rate hikes. The survey highlighted of a

more accommodative stance from Reserve Bank of India in cutting rates further and

estimated the FY17 inflation to be at ~4.5-5%.



TOP ECONOMY NEWS

The Public Investment Board has approved the Rs. 8 billion proposal from India Post forsetting up a payments bank and it will be placed before the Cabinet within a month forfinal approval.

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, today launched the National Rurban Mission

from Kurubhat, in Rajnandgaon district of Chhattisgarh.

Government is considering a proposal to permit 49% FDI through automatic approvalroute in the insurance sector with a view to attracting more overseas inflows.

The transport ministry is hopeful of receiving the Cabinet approval soon on the proposalto sell over 100 operational toll road projects to sovereign and pension funds that willgarner at least US$7.7 billion.

The current government came to power in 2014. Since then, there have been hopes thatfuture budget might lay out plans for big-ticket reforms. But the same has not happenedtill now. So even though many people feel that this will be the last budget in whichgovernment can push for some serious reforms, it will be wrong to assume thatgovernment might announce something very dramatic.

The global higher education sector is undergoing significant transition, with growingdemand, increasing competition, and evolving funding models, Moody's InvestorsService says in a new report. The strength of enterprise risk management and strategic positioning will drive the financial health of individual universities as they adapt to thischanging environment.

Budget is Coming against a backdrop of heightened tensions between the government andopposition over several key issues, Budget Session is set to witness some stormy startfrom 23rd February 2016. Parliamentary Affairs Minister M Venkaiah Naidu, whilespeaking ahead of the session, remained confident that the important bills like GST andReal Estate will achieve a "broader concensus" and also said that the government is readyto discuss on all the fronts including the JNU row.

In a bid to evacuate mine sites to comply with the directive of the Supreme Court, theGovernment of Goa has put nearly eight million tonnes of low-grade iron ore forimmediate auction at the price rejected by most buyers in previous auctions.

Four industrial cities, including Ahmedabad Dholera special investment region inGujarat, are being implemented under the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor project, Parliament was informed.

A total of Rs 12.3 billion has been transferred to the coal bearing states includingJharkhand and Odisha on account of upfront payment for coal blocks that were auctioned and allotted.

Government expressed hope that Real Estate Regulatory Bill could be discussed andapproved in the ongoing budget session of Parliament.

Defence Minister said the government is "actively considering" a separate set up fordefence acquisition.



TOP CORPORATE NEWS -

Reliance Industries said that Reliance Jio will be ready to commercially launch its muchtalked about 4G telecom services in second half of 2016, offering 80% of Indians high-speed mobile internet as well as voice services.

Buoyed by a big ticket deal at its office complex at BKC in Mumbai, realty firm Godrej

Properties is targeting a sales revenue of about Rs 15 billion this year throughmonetisation of its commercial assets in Mumbai, Kolkata and Chandigarh.

Lupin Ltd. and Gavis Pharmaceuticals LLC, whose $ 850 million acquisition the Indianfirm announced last year, have agreed to divest two generic drugs as part of the USFederal Trace Commission requirement to complete the transaction.

The Centre's green panel has given a clearance to the ONGC Ltd. for its Rs 17.5 billion project involving drilling of 406 development wells in oil fields in Gujarat's CambayBasin.

Aditya Birla Nuvo announced that the Company jointly with Idea Cellular hasincorporated a new subsidiary for the purpose of setting up a payments bank in the nameand style of 'ADITYA BIRLA IDEA PAYMENTS BANK wherein the Company will beholding upto 51% shares and balance 49% shares shall be held by Idea Cellular, aJoint Venture of the Company.

Havells India Ltd. plans to set up a new manufacturing unit on the outskirts ofBengaluru at an investment of INR 1,059 crore, Chairman Anil Gupta has Said.

PVR Ltd. on Friday announced a tie-up with New Delhi-based Ozone Networks Ltd, aWi-Fi service provider,to offer free Wi-Fi at PVR properties.Aurobindo Pharma Ltd will expand its operations in newer markets in the

European Union.

The Government of India is set to sell its 5% stake in NTPC LTD. through the Offer forSale route, government officials said.

Maruti Suzuki India maintained its leadership position in the domestic passengervehicle market with six of its models featuring in the top 10 brands in January.

Reliance Communications has received approval from fair trade regulator CompetitionCommission of India to acquire Russian conglomerate Sistema's Indian telecom unit,Sistema Shyam Teleservices Ltd.

Rajesh Exports Ltd. Said it has won Rs. 8.4 billion export order from the UAE.

BHEL is poised to seal a contract to build a US$ 1.6 billion power plant in Bangladesh, beating out a Chinese competitor in the latest commercial tussle between the region's twodominant powers.

Engineering and construction major Punj Lloyd Ltd has bagged Rs 308 crore order forconstruction of luxury villas in Dubai, the UAE.

Iron ore mine allotted to Tata Steel by Chhattisgarh Government in Dantewada

district stands cancelled, as the company failed to complete the work within thestipulated Period.



Piramal Enterprises Ltd. said it is looking to raise up to Rs 10 billion through issuanceof non-convertible debentures on private placement basis.

Eicher Motors’ Royal Enfield announced launch of its first retail operations in Thailand.

Lupin Ltd. is setting up a new plant in Japan and investing Rs 1billion in a

manufacturing facility in India which will cater to the Japanese market.

TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK

With its larger peers busy in cleaning up their balance sheets, Federal Bank is looking at

it as an opportunity to grow business and expects 15-20% credit growth in the next

financial year, Federal Bank MD and CEO told.

At Rs 4 lakh crore, bad loans exceed market value of PSU banks For every Rs 100 parked in shares of public sector banks, investors carry the burden of Rs 150 as bad loans,which have cumulatively ballooned to Rs 4 lakh crore or 1.5 times the market value ofthese lenders.

The Public Investment Board has approved the Rs 800-crore proposal from India Post forsetting up a payments bank and it will be placed before the Cabinet withina month for final approval. PIB,under the Finance Ministry, whets the investment proposals by state-run entities.

IDBI Bank Ltd. received Sebi's approval to raise Rs 37.7 billion through issuance ofshares to qualified institutional players.

Chunky loans from large public sector unit banks have driven the surge in non- performing assets in banking. Ten PSU banks with NPAs over 8 per cent each account forover half the total bad loans in the banking industry .

Kotak Mahindra Bank ’s acquisition of 19.9% stake in Airtel M Commerce to driveexpansion After having gained national footprint post its acquisition of ING Vysya Banktowards the end of 2014, Kotak Mahindra Bank has now set its eyes on grabbing a large pie of the payments bank business.

India's leading private lender Yes Bank Ltd. has received the inaugural Green Bond

Pioneer Award in UK in ceremony here, it was announced Tuesday.

State Bank of India's Rs. 11,700 crore worth loans have been locked up as non- performing assets as nearly 1,160 defaulters have willfully decided not to repay,according to data.



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equity research report 29 february 2016 ways2capital

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