equity research report 29 august 2016 ways2capital
TRANSCRIPT
TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : - The Equity benchmark Nifty50 has opened flat basis on Monday up by
1 point at 8667. Nifty had a luck-luster movement last week where it moved in a narrow
band of 125 points. Time to look forward to the follow up of Raghuram Rajan’s era
country central bank by the newly appointed governor Urjit Patel, the scenario is still far
from relax to him like rising inflationary Pressure and lower growth in domestic demand.
For the second time in 7 month and after 5 month of consistent of positive closing, Nifty
has ended marginally in red in this week. The Nifty is facing the lot of Resistance Levels
around 8680-8720 levels. Ahead of Fed Chair Jennet Yellen Speech and Last trading
Session of august F&O expiry the Nifty has witnessed some volatility but it was in the
very much trading range. The crucial levels for Nifty for next week is 8650-8680 up side
and 8550-8500 down side. If Nifty break the level of 8550 could witness the correction of
150-200 points.
BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty open in Positive note on Monday up by 18 points or 0.1
percent at 19432. The Net-Performing Assets of India’s State run Bank’s. Measured of
their percentage of advances, has ballooned 5.4 per cent as on March 2015 to 11.5 per cent
in 15 month. The Government this time Choose to play safe by appointing Patel as the
New Reserve Bank of India Governor, and in this way basically ensuring smooth
transition, continuation of present policy of inflation targeting. Valuation wise Bank Nifty
at 19400 PE of Bank Nifty is 27.50 and may be quite expensive from its historic average
of around 18-20. Bank Nifty may be in the bubble zone already and we may see
significant correction. Even after any initial Euphoria. The Crucial Levels for Bank Nifty
is 19663-20031 upside and 19001-18682 down side.
Monday, 29 August 2016
TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
8797 8649 8575 8501 8353
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
9000 8730 8595 8460 8190
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
9209 8801 8597 8393 7985
BANK NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
19885 19443 19222 19001 18559
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
20331 19621 19266 18911 18201
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
22176 20084 19038 17992 15900
MOVING AVERAGE 21 DAYS 50 DAYS 100 DAYS 200 DAYS
NIFTY 8652 8506 8225 7908
BANK NIFTY 19072 18631 17748 16808
PARABOLIC SAR DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
NIFTY 8739 8331 7161
BANK NIFTY 18773 18559 14020
PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Nifty has Applied the Bollinger
Band Along with Parabolic SAR, both the indicators give the early indication of Bullish
or Bearish trend of the market. Along with that the Nifty dalily Chart is Froming the
Symmetrical Wedge Pattern Which is the Reversal trend Signal. As we have seen in last
week the Nifty is traded in the Narrow range of 150-200 points. Now it seems that trend
has reverse into the Bearish Side in the Daily Chart has Formed the Bearish candle which
is also the signal of market reversal. If the Nifty is Not able to Sustain the levels of 8550-
8500 level we could witness the level of 8400-8350 in near Term. Move Toward the 8600
levels in upcoming will lead the Nifty to break the level of 8780-8800 could touch the
level of 8990 in upcoming week. The Crucial levels for Nifty is 8500-8480 down side and
86800-8720 is Upside. .
PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - In the Above given Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the Bollinger
Band along with the Parabolic , both the indicators break Upper or Lower Band give the
early indication of Bullish or Bearish trend of the market respectively. Thus the Bank
Nifty Chart also formed the Double top Kind of Pattern which has Break below side,
from this Point we are Expecting if the trend continue for Upcoming week and it could
touch the level of 18500-18320 in Near-Term. If we look into the Fundamental of Bank
Nifty the P/E of Bank Nifty is arounf 24 which is the overbought Territory and could seen
the Bearish Movement for Upcoming time. The Crucial Levels for Bank Nifty is 19450-
19860 up side and 19063-18872 Down side.
NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS
COMPANY
NAME
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
ACC EQ 1681 1659 1640 1618 1599
ALBK EQ 83 80 79 76 75
AMBUJACEM EQ 271 268 265 262 259
ASIAN PAINT EQ 1141 1131 1111 1101 1081
AXISBANK EQ 593 589 584 580 575
BAJAJ-AUTO EQ 2892 2875 2860 2843 2828
BANKBARODA EQ 165 162 159 156 153
BANKINDIA EQ 115 113 111 109 107
BHEL EQ 144 141 140 137 136
BHARTIARTL EQ 351 347 344 340 337
CIPLA EQ 576 571 567 562 558
COALINDIA EQ 337 335 332 330 327
DLF EQ 165 162 160 157 155
DRREDDY EQ 3091 3066 3045 3020 2999
GAIL EQ 391 385 378 372 365
GRASIM EQ 4600 4567 4537 4504 4447
HCLTECH EQ 812 795 784 767 756
HDFC EQ 1384 1376 1362 1354 1340
HDFCBANK EQ 1265 1261 1257 1253 1249
HEROMOTOCO EQ 3353 3337 3317 3301 3281
HINDALCO EQ 157 156 155 154 153
HINDUNILVR EQ 919 910 905 896 891
ICICIBANK EQ 250 248 245 243 240
ITC EQ 255 254 253 252 251
INDUSIND BANK EQ 1196 1180 1170 1154 1144
INFY EQ 1056 1038 1027 1009 998
JINDALSTEL EQ 90 87 86 83 82
KOTAKBANK EQ 798 789 781 772 764
LT EQ 1474 1451 1435 1412 1396
M&M EQ 1442 1434 1425 1417 1408
MRF EQ 37098 36681 36447 3603 35796
MARUTI EQ 4984 4950 4930 4896 4876
ONGC EQ 240 239 238 236 235
ORIENTBANK EQ 121 118 116 113 111
RCOM EQ 56 54 53 51 50
RELCAPITAL EQ 514 508 500 494 486
RELIANCE EQ 1039 1033 1023 1017 1007
RELINFRA EQ 607 595 589 577 571
RPOWER EQ 54 53 52 51 50
SBIN EQ 252 249 247 244 242
SSLT( VEDL) EQ 173 171 169 167 165
SUNPHARMA EQ 774 765 758 749 742
TATAMOTORS EQ 530 517 501 488 472
TATAPOWER EQ 77 76 76 75 75
TATASTEEL EQ 378 374 370 366 362
UNIONBANK EQ 136 135 133 132 130
TOP 15 ACHIEVERS // TOP 15 LOOSERS
NEXT WEEK STARS( AS PER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS )
NSE CASH : BUY BANKINDIA NSE CASH ABOVE 116 TGT 123 SL 113.
NSE CASH : BUY JETAIRWAYS NSE CASH ABOVE 540 TGT 570 SL 518.
NSE CASH : BUY TITAN NSE CASH ABOVE 410 TGT 445 SL 397.
NSE FUTURE
NSE FUTURE : BUY TATASTEEL FUTURE ABOVE 375.70 TGT 385.70 SL 370.70
NSE FUTURE : BUY ICICIBANK FUTURE ABOVE 248.20 TGT 254.20 SL 245.20
NSE FUTURE : BUY ULTRACEMCO FUTURE ABOVE 3836 TGT 3916 SL 3796
SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE CMP % CHANGE
1 TATA STEEL 392 369 -5.79 %
2 WIPRO LTD. 520 490 -5.79 %
3 ADANI PORTS 273 257 -5.62 %
4 NTPC 166 157 -5.31 %
5 SBIN 258 246 -4.60 %
6 L&T 1494 1427 -4.49 %
7 LUPIN LIMITED 1576 1512 -4.06 %
8 AMBUJA CEMENT 276 266 -3.73 %
9 SUN PHARMA 783 755 -3.64 %
10 ICICI BANK 253 245 -3.39 %
11 ULTRATECH CEM 3926 3803 -3.13 %
12 ACC 1691 1638 -3.12 %
13 TCS 2603 2524 -3.02 %
14 TATA POWER 78 75 -2.95 %
15 TECH MAHINDRA 473 459 -2.80 %
SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE
CMP % CHANGE
1 GAIL INDIA LTD. 363 378+4.05 %
2AURO PHARMA 765 789 +3.25 %
3 CIPLA LIMITED 556 567+1.88 %
4BHARTI INFRA 342 346 +1.31 %
5 RELIANCE 1014 1027+1.28 %
6ITC LIMITED 250 253 +1.14 %
7 DR. REDDY’S LAB 3010 3040+1.00 %
8ASIAN PAINTS 1113 1123 +0.88 %
9 HDFC BANK 1247 1257+0.80 %
10ZEEL 503 506 +0.53 %
11 BHARAT PETRO 593 595+0.43 %
12MARUTI SUZUKI 4900 4920 +0.42 %
13 IDEA CELLULAR 93 94+0.37 %
14KOTAK BANK 778 780 +0.30 %
15 ALKEM LAB 1538 1542+0.30 %
NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
Reforms to aid growth; banking sector risks remain: Moody's - Moody's Investors
Service said continued reforms to enhance business environment and moderate inflation
will help India achieve robust growth but cautioned that rising contingent liability risks in
the banking sector could affect its credit quality. Evidence of success in policymakers'
efforts to introduce growth-enhancing economic and institutional reforms would provide
support for a rating upgrade, Moody's said in its Annual Credit Analysis as it forecast
GDP growth at around 7.5 per cent for next two years, "Sustained fiscal consolidation,
stable inflation at moderate levels and progress on reforms aimed at enhancing the
business environment would contribute to sustained growth at robust levels. In turn,
persistent income and profit growth would raise government revenues and contribute to
improved fiscal metrics. However, we expect the benefits to be very gradual," Moody's
said.
July private equity investments slump as big-ticket deals vanish - Private equity deal
momentum saw a significant downtrend in July with deals worth $ 768 million,
registering a decline of 73 per cent over the same period a year ago, largely due to
absence of big-ticket deals. According to assurance, tax and advisory firm Grant
Thornton, there were 86 PE deals worth $768 million in July this year while in the
corresponding period last year, there were 111 transactions worth $ 2,839 million. "PE
investments witnessed a downward trend both in terms of volumes 23 per cent year-on-
year and values 73 per cent y-o-y, marking the month's lowest investment values in the
last three years due to absence of big-ticket investments only 3 investments above $50
million compared to 11 in July 2015," the report said.
Overall global investment in fintech companies totaled $ 99.4 billion, shows report -
Global investments in fintech companies across both venture-backed and non-venture-
backed companies totaled $ 9.4 billion in the second quarter of this year, says a report.
However, investment directed to VC-backed financial technology startups fell 49 per
cent, the report said. According to the Pulse of Fintech, the quarterly global report on
fintech VC trends published jointly by KPMG International and CB Insights, despite this
decline, VC investment in fintech is on pace to exceed 2015 results. "Despite VC-backed
funding to fintech decreasing in Q2, overall fintech funding remains on track to surpass
2015 levels," says Ian Pollari, Global Co-Leader of Fintech, KPMG International.
Government expects tax revenues to increase after GST roll-out - The government
expects its tax buoyancy to increase after the goods and services tax is rolled out, a sharp
contrast to many experts warning of disruptions in tax machinery and slower revenue
growth in the initial years of this tax reform. In the medium term expenditure framework
released last week the government expects higher economic growth, GST and other
policy measures to help lift gross tax revenues to 10.9% of gross domestic product in
FY18 and 11.1% of GDP in FY of GDP in FY19. The Centre's tax-to-GDP ratio was
10.7% in FY15, almost same as projected 10.8% for the current fiscal.
Ind-Ra upticks GDP forecast to 7.8%; growth on but not speedy - Ind-Ra has revised
India's economic growth forecast to 7.8 per cent for the ongoing fiscal on better monsoon,
but said the economy is just "chugging along" despite the euphoria emerging after the
formation Modi government at the Centre. "India Ratings and Research has revised its
gross domestic product estimate for 2016-17 upwards to 7.8 per cent from its earlier
forecast of 7.7 per cent. The upward revision has been prompted by the progress of
monsoon and the sowing of kharif crop so far," the ratings agency said in its research
report on 'Review of the Economy'. With the area under kharif crop sowing 5.7 per cent
higher than a normal area so far, it said the agency expects the farm gross value added to
grow 3 per cent in the current fiscal as against 2.8 per cent forecasted earlier.
India should allow migration of China's excess manufacturing' - India should shed its
concerns over pollution and allow Chinese industries to shift their excess capacity to it
which would be benificial to both countries, state media here said. "India may need to
carefully think about whether it wants to resist or embrace the migration of China's
production capacity, which allegedly involves some investment in heavy polluting
industries," an article in the state-run Global Times said. Referring to reports of China
Railway Rolling Stock Corporation starting operations at its joint venture plant in
Haryana to manufacture and repair locomotives, it said, "the partnership is hardly
surprising seeing as India has one of the world's largest railway network, creating a huge
demand for engines and other railway equipment".
✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS
Income tax collection from the Mumbai zone, which sends one-third of the total direct tax
collections, grew by around 9% to Rs. 671.85 billion in April-July, driven by a massive
spike in advance collections from individuals.
For the second-straight month, India trimmed its holdings of American government
securities to USD 117.2 billion in June.
The Ministry of Railways has opted for a slab-wise revision of its coal freight based on
distance. Through this, there would be a 8-14% rise on coal freight rates for distances
between 100-700 km.
India's total installed solar capacity has grown by over 80% in the last 12 months to reach
8.1GW. Out of the 3.6 GW capacity added in this period, 2.7 GW has come from four
southern states with Tamil Nadu alone adding over 1.2 GW. These six states account for
80% of the capacity added in India.
India is renegotiating over a two-decade old tax treaty with Singapore and the revised
protocol will take into account the concerns of both.
The Union Cabinet gave its nod for signing of revised double taxation avoidance
agreement with Cyprus, a popular tax haven.
Domestic crude oil output fell 1.81% in July 2016 but natural gas output rose 3.27%.
The National Payments Corporation of India said the Unified Payments Interface will go
live for customers of 21 banks.
The Reserve Bank of India announced a slew of changes in fixed income and currency
markets such as allowing lenders to issue 'masala bonds' and to accept corporate bonds
under the liquidity adjustment facility.
The government is set to seek formal Cabinet approval for shutting down seven state-
owned companies, with their respective line ministries apparently agreed. This would be
the first time that approvals for closing so many public sector undertakings is being
sought in one go.
✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
A green panel has deferred its decision on granting environment clearance to Indian Oil
Corporation’s Rs. 5.93 billion Styrene and Ethylene project at Panipat in Haryana, for
want of more information.
Apollo Tyres has said it is planning to invest around Rs. 16-17 billion during the current
fiscal, a major chunk of which will be for its Chennai facility. Additionally, it plans to
spend about EUR 200 million on its Hungary greenfield facility for the fiscal 2017.
Sun TV Network Limited said that it is confident on receiving approvals from the
Centre for its FM radio business, in which company invested around Rs. 6.20 billion.
Earlier, the Ministry of Broadcasting of the Government of India has refused to accept its
applications and the issue was a matter of dispute in various courts.
Tata Power’s 50:50 joint venture with Exxaro Resources in South Africa, Cennergi
announced commencement of commercial operations for its 95 MW Tsitsikamma
Community wind farm project.
Manappuram Finance said it plans to raise Rs. 750 million through secured redeemable
non-convertible debentures.
Competition Commission has cleared IT company HCL Technologies' equity swap deal
to buy the business of Geometric Ltd.
Srei Infrastructure Finance Limited said it will raise Rs. 10 billion through a public
offer of non-convertible debentures.
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Limited and GAIL India Ltd will divest up to 50% stake
in the Rs. 300 billion petrochemical plant which is being set up in Andhra Pradesh.
ONGC Videsh Limited, the overseas arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp, has received
one-year extension to explore a Vietnamese oil block in the contested waters of the South
China Sea.
Vodafone Group Plc's Indian arm is in exploratory talks around a possible merger with its
smaller domestic rival Idea Cellular.
Castrol India Limited, a unit of oil major BP Plc, is selling an up to USD 261 million
stake in Castrol India Limited in a block trade.
Reliance Communications has launched content delivery network 'Fast Edge' for faster
delivery of web content to users.
Honeywell launched a state-of-the-art electro Magnetic Interference and Electro Magnetic
Compatibility Lab at Honeywell Technology Solutions centre in Hyderabad.
Lupin Limited has received approval from the Central Drugs Standard Control
Organisation for Acotiamide 100 mg tablets used for treatment of indigestion.
IL&FS Engineering Services along with its joint venture partner Unitech Power
Transmission has bagged a contract worth Rs 1.36 billion from Power Grid Corporation
for a project in Gujarat.
Jindal Steel and Power Limited has secured long-term coal linkage of 1.18 mtpa for
power plants in Chhattisgarh.
Reliance Industries, has asked its 40,000-plus employees to stop using phones
connections of existing operators, like Airtel and Vodafone, and instead switch to its
own high-speed 4G Jio.
GAIL India Limited signed a memorandum of understanding with California-based
Bloom Energy for developing natural gas-based fuel cell power generation.
Tata Motors Distribusi Indonesia , a Tata Motors’ unit, has launched two new-
generation commercial vehicles in Indonesia - Tata ULTRA 1012 light truck and Tata
Xenon XT D-Cab 4x4 pick-up - at the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show 2016.
Birla Corporation has completed acquisition of cement business, a wholly-owned arm
of flagship Reliance Infrastructure, for an enterprise valuation of about Rs. 48 billion.
JK Tyre has become the first Indian company to roll out 10 million truck/bus radial
tyres.
Lupin Limited said its subsidiary Gavis Pharmaceuticals has received approval from
the US health regulator to market generic linezolid tablets used for treating bacterial
infection in the American market.
New Delhi Television has got partial relief from Income Tax Appellate Tribunal in a case
related to payment of income tax. The ITAT has disallowed a tax claim by the Income
Tax department in excess of Rs. 220 million from the Delhi-based media company for the
assessment years 2007-08 and 2008-09.
ITC Limited has filed a case against Britannia Industries, claiming NutriChoice
Digestive Zero brand has copied the packaging of ITC's Sunfeast Farmlite Digestive All
Good biscuit.
Oil and Natural Gas Corp has awarded a multi-milliondollar frame agreement to US
energy giant GE Oil & Gas, under which the latter will support the state firm's
exploratory drilling campaign in shallow to medium waters for the next three years.
Tata Global Beverages may “restructure” China operations.
Jubilant Life Sciences has received approval from the US health regulator for
Telmisartan tablets, used for the treatment of hypertension, in the American market.
Strides Shasun has received approval from the US health regulator for Ranitidine tablets
used for treating intestinal and stomach ulcers and gastroesophageal reflux disease.
Tata Steel Limited has started exports of ferroshots from its steel plant at Kalinganagar
in Odisha.
Tata Consultancy Services, has settled an ongoing law suit with Orange County,
California. The company has paid USD 26 million to settle the three-year long dispute.
The Board of Directors of Nava Bharat Ventures Limited have approved sale of 100%
shares of Nava Bharat Lao Energy Pte Limited.
8K Miles Software Services Ltd announced its plans to raise Rs. 5 billion through a mix
of instruments including issue of equity shares or convertible bonds through qualified
institutional placement, among others.
✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
Urjit Patel should count himself lucky. He will probably be the only Reserve Bank
governor since 1992 to be taking charge when there is calm on the macroeconomic front.
C Rangarajan from 1992 to 1997 had to tackle a macroeconomic mess, his successor
Bimal Jalan 1997-2003 had to face the Asian crisis. YV Reddy 2003-2008, after a point,
had to deal with surging capital flows, and D Subbarao 2008-2013 was busy tackling
one crisis after another throughout his stint. For Raghuram Rajan, it was the currency
crisis and, later, the problem of non-performing assets that afflicted state-run banks. In
that sense, the path appears relatively smooth for Patel — except for the state of banks,
which is probably at its worst. Patel will have to carefully navigate the banking landmine.
Setting an ambitious target of having five million customers by 2020 and to become the
No 3 player in the extremely competitive industry, mid-sized lender Yes Bank Limited
made a foray into the credit card market. At a time when lenders are playing it safe by
sticking to their own customers to sell credit cards, the bank plans to go all out seeking
customers from outside for the unsecured lending product. "Credit card is central to our
customer acquisition plans. We don't believe there is anything like an internal customer or
an external customer," the bank's senior group president for retail and business banking
Pralay Mondal said.
State Bank of India will not need fair trade regulator CCI's approval for merging 5
associates and Bhartiya Mahila Bank with itself, a move that will create a global sized
bank with an asset base of Rs. 30 trillion.
The Gross Non-Performing Assets or bad loans, of India’s State Run Banks, Measured as
a percentage of their Advances, have ballooned 5.4 as on march 2015 to 11.3 per cent 15
months latter. As per the data Available with Reserve Bank of India. In Contrast, Such
bad loans of Private Banks or Foreign Entities in the Industry. Rose a relatively less
dramatic manner - from 2.2 percent to 2.8 percent for the former and from the 3.2 percent
to 3.7 per cent for the latter.
Private sector lender IndusInd Bank Limited has tied up with IBM to use its Cloud
commerce solutions to transform customer engagements and enhance its cross-sell
platforms. As a part of a three year strategic agreement, IBM will provide a cloud and
predictive analytics based multi-channel campaign management solution that enables
IndusInd Bank to strengthen its online banking presence while improving the product
holding per customer. In the highly competitive Indian retail banking space, businesses
need digital marketing solutions capable of sifting through large amounts of transactional
and interaction data from various touch points as well as strong analytical capabilitie.
IndusInd Bank has tied up with IBM to use its Cloud commerce solutions to transform
customer engagements and enhance its cross-sell platforms.
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