equity research report 04 july 2016 ways2capital
TRANSCRIPT
TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : The Market has Opened in a Negative bias on Monday the 50 Share
Index Nifty 50 opened 49 points below or 0.60 Percent of its last closing at 8039. The
Uncertainty over the Consequence of the Britain Exit referendum still hang over investors
Psyche. The Nifty was trading around its Crucial level of 8050. From Now Investors need
to take a measured Approach and not get Carried away by dooms day. Scenario in so far as
the impact on the Indian economy and Market is concerned. Once the Brexit concern
settled, India will be the Net Gainer and Inflow would be Continue. The Volatility
foreseen in the Market due to Negative Global Cues. The development in Euro zone will
be decisive factor for the Market. Favorable Monsoon outcomes, increase in corporate
Earning, and Possibility US Fed is not going to raise the interest rate will be positive
Trigger For the Market. The Union Cabinet has cleared the 7 th pay Commission pay will
also improve the sentiments and rate cut Possibility in near term by RBI. The Nifty
Technically Seem toward 8400 level in near Term. The Crucial Level for Nifty is 8300-
8350 Up side and 8150-8100 is Down Side.
BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty has Opened in a Negative bias on Monday down by 80
points or 0.45 percent at 17346. The Current and savings account deposits, once a key
pillar of any public sector bank's business in India, have shrunk rapidly since the turn of
the century as customers moved to technology-savvy private sector banks attracted by
their service and convenience. CASA deposits are crucial to a bank's health because they
are the cheapest source of funds for banks. The Health of the Indian Financial System is
worsened in the six month to march. Due to surge in bad loans and dwining profitability
making banks vulnerable to extreme credit shock show the RBI Financial Stability Report.
The Government must play the role of a responsible sponsor if it want’s Bank to Support
Growth The RBI said. The Bank Nifty Seems Bull side in Technical Side. The crucial
level for Bank Nifty is 17890-18080 down side and 18290-18380 is upside.
Monday, 04 July 2016
TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
8464 8378 8335 8292 8206
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
9148 8548 8248 7948 7348
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
8450 8374 8336 8298 8222
BANK NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
18287 18111 18023 17935 17759
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
19833 18495 17826 17157 15819
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
18285 18109 18021 17933 17757
MOVING AVERAGE 21 DAYS 50 DAYS 100 DAYS 200 DAYS
NIFTY 8209 8042 7757 7799
BANK NIFTY 17715 17221 16224 16503
PARABOLIC SAR DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
NIFTY 7929 7929 7001
BANK NIFTY 16956 16956 13740
PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart -
On the Above given Chart of Nifty has Applied the Bollinger Band along with Parabolic
SAR these are the Leading indicator, which tells the trends for Short Term break above or
below Upper or Lower Band is Crucial Signal for the Particular Stock or Index, On the
Above Given Chart of Nifty the Nifty has Given the Break Upper Band which is the
clearly signal for long-Position of Nifty for Next Week if the Nifty is able to Sustain the
Rally of Consecutive four days it could reach at around 8400-8540 level and if it is not
able to Sustain the level of 8300 we could move toward 8250-8180 in near term. The
crucial level for Nifty is 8400-8450 up side and 8300-8250 is Down side.
PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Details of Chart-
On The Above given Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the Bollinger Band and alo ng with
Parabolic SAR both are the Trend Identification Indicators, Bollinger Band Gives the
Indication of Buying or Selling break the level of above or below band. Some traders buy
when it Break the Middle Band or Sell When it Break the Lower Band. On the Above
given Chart of Bank Nifty it is looking to break the Level of Upper Side, We are
Expecting that if the Bank Nifty is Holding the Trend it may touch the Level of 18200-
18400. The Crucial Level for Bank Nifty is 17800-18200.
NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS
COMPANY NAME R2 R1 PP S1 S2
ACC EQ 1633 1625 1618 1610 1603
ALBK EQ 71 70 70 69 68
AMBUJACEM EQ 258 256 254 252 250
ASIAN PAINT EQ 1019 1011 995 987 971
AXISBANK EQ 551 547 541 537 531
BAJAJ-AUTO EQ 2737 2705 2686 2654 2635
BANKBARODA EQ 159 158 155 154 151
BANKINDIA EQ 107 106 103 102 99
BHEL EQ 135 133 131 129 127
BHARTIARTL EQ 377 373 367 363 357
CIPLA EQ 515 512 505 502 495
COALINDIA EQ 316 313 311 308 306
DLF EQ 154 152 151 149 148
DRREDDY EQ 3548 3517 3473 3442 3398
GAIL EQ 403 399 392 388 381
GRASIM EQ 4695 4666 4647 4618 4599
HCLTECH EQ 738 735 732 739 726
HDFC EQ 1272 1257 1247 1232 1222
HDFCBANK EQ 1189 1181 1176 1168 1163
HEROMOTOCO EQ 3220 3203 3182 3165 3144
HINDALCO EQ 126 125 124 123 122
HINDUNILVR EQ 914 906 896 888 878
ICICIBANK EQ 243 241 240 238 237
ITC EQ 268 260 251 243 234
INDUSIND BANK EQ 1132 1125 1122 1115 1112
INFY EQ 1184 1777 1174 1167 1164
JINDALSTEL EQ 74 72 70 68 66
KOTAKBANK EQ 772 762 756 746 740
LT EQ 1574 1559 1529 1514 1484
M&M EQ 1498 1479 1456 1437 1414
MRF EQ 34367 33983 33517 33133 32667
MARUTI EQ 4253 4209 4171 4127 4089
ONGC EQ 238 233 225 220 212
ORIENTBANK EQ 115 113 110 108 105
RCOM EQ 53 52 51 50 49
RELCAPITAL EQ 405 402 399 396 393
RELIANCE EQ 979 977 973 971 967
RELINFRA EQ 553 548 545 540 537
RPOWER EQ 53 52 52 51 51
SBIN EQ 222 221 219 218 216
SSLT( VEDL) EQ 138 136 134 132 130
SUNPHARMA EQ 772 767 765 760 758
TATAMOTORS EQ 469 464 459 454 449
TATAPOWER EQ 76 75 74 73 72
TATASTEEL EQ 332 329 328 325 324
UNIONBANK EQ 136 133 131 128 126
TOP 15 ACHIEVERS // TOP 15 LOOSERS
NEXT WEEK STARS (AS PER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
Futures Pack
NSE FUTURE : BUY TATAMOTORS FUTURE ABOVE 462 TGT 476 SL 455
NSE FUTURE : BUY YESBANK FUTURE ABOVE 1122 TGT 1142 SL 1112
NSE FUTURE : BUY JUSTDIAL FUTURE ABOVE 618 TGT 638 SL 608
Cash Pack
NSE CASH : BUY MANAPPURAM NSE CASH ABOVE 71 TGT 75.50 SL 68.75.
NSE CASH : BUY CENTURYPLY NSE CASH ABOVE 205 TGT 218 SL 198.
NSE CASH : BUY TATAMTRDVR NSE CASH ABOVE 298 TGT 320 SL 290.
SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE CMP % CHANGE
1 ITC LIM ITED 354 252 - 28.73 %
2 KPIT TECHNO 177 157 - 11.59 %
1 KP
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NO
17
7
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2 KP
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3 KP
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5 KP
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7 3 TCS 2573 2500 - 2.84 %
4 MASTEK LIMITED 139 135 - 2.66 %
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135 5 ICRA LIM ITED 4104 4009
- 2.32 %
6 INFOSYS 1194 1172 - 1.85 %
IN
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11
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IN
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7 WELSPUN CORP 81.60 80.00 - 1.84 %
8 ASIAN HOTEL 111 109 - 1.66 %
ASI
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109 9 JUST DIAL 625 615
- 1.59 %
10 BALAJI TEL E 108 106.55 - 1.48 %
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11 HCL TECHNO 741 731 - 1.37 %
12 ALKEM LAB ’S 1384 1367 - 1.23 %
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7 13 INFIB EAM INCOR 680 672
- 1.19 %
14 BERGER P AINTS 279 276
- 1.14 %
B
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15 NATCO PHARM A 574 568 - 1.00 %
SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE
CMP % CHANGE
1 BHEL 118.25 132.05 + 11.67
2 DR. REDDY’S 3,153.2 3,484.1 + 10.49 D
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3 GRASIM IND S. 4,291.2 4,643.2 + 8.20
4 BHARTI INFR A 324.75 350.20 + 7.84 B
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5 L & T 1,430.6 1,542.6 + 7.83
6 BHARAT P ETR OL 1,013.4 1,091.9 + 7.75 B
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7 ONGC 209.40 225.00 + 7.45
8 BOSCH LTD. 21,159. 22,684. + 7.20 B
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9 CIPLA 476.55 508.60 + 6.73
10 IDEA C ELLULAR 99.55 106.05 + 6.53 I
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11 AURO PHARMA 700.90 746.25 + 6.47
12 BANK BARODA 147.15 156.60 + 6.42 B
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13 AXIS BANK LTD. 510.50 542.90 + 6.35
14 HINDALCO 117.30 124.75 + 6.35 H
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15 LUPIN LTD. 1462.90 1552.8 +6.15 %
AMBUJA
CEMENT
204 232 +13.67
% AMBUJA CEMENT
2. BO
SCH
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TD.
18128 20371 +12.37
% 3. BOSCH
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4. BO
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ACC 1240 1385 +11.68
% ACC
NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
Relaxation of foreign investment rules credit positive - Moody's - India's decision to
relax foreign direct investment in sectors including defence, aviation, and retail is a
positive development for the country's sovereign ratings, said Moody's Investors Service
on Monday. "The announcement is credit positive because it demonstrates a continuatio n
of reform momentum and paves the way for private investment and a boost in
productivity," said Moody's. India announced last week sweeping reforms to rules on
foreign direct investment and easier terms for investors in sectors ranging from civil
aviation to pharmaceuticals. But Moody's warned reforms have stalled in passing a
revamped goods and services tax and land acquisition rules. "We expect that political
division will keep the reform process uneven and slow-moving," Moody's said.
Mauritius woos Indian investors to set up ventures in tourism, manufacturing -
Mauritius wooed Indian investors to set up ventures in various potential sectors like
tourism, manufacturing, food processing and promised them hassle- free environment to
have an access to African countries. "Mauritius offers great opportunity to Indian
business houses to make investment in different sectors like tourism, food processing,
manufacturing like textile, light engineering goods, trading, pharmaceuticals ICT BPO
and financial services. "These are some of the sectors in Mauritius where Indian investors
can make investments," Country Head of Board of Investment, Mauritius, Seewraj
Nundlall told reporters here today. By setting up their ventures in Mauritius, Indian
Corporates can have an access to African countries, he said.
India might get fillip in slowing UK trade post Brexit - Britain is likely to explore
direct bilateral trade agreements with India which could impart a fillip to sluggish UK-
India trade ties after the UK's exit from the European Union, a Singapore bank said today.
"Post exit EU, the UK is likely to explore direct bilateral trade agreements with other
trading partners including India," said Development Bank of Singapore. "This might
provide an alternate route to India, in comparison to the tough and the drawn-out
negotiations on the EU Free Trade Agreement, in turn providing a fillip to a slowing
India-UK trade," said DBS.
India's growth may dip by 60 bps on Brexit, predicts Morgan Stanley - Brexit is
likely to have an adverse impact on India's growth with domestic GDP expected to
decline by up to 60 basis points in a high-stress scenario within the next two years,
Morgan Stanley today said in a report. According to the global financial services major,
with the UK's referendum to leave the European Union, the impact on Indian economy
would be through trade and financial channels. However, it noted that owing to lower
direct exposure in terms of exports to the UK, the Brexit impact would be "less" as
compared to other more open economies in the region. "In a medium-stress scenario, we
expect downside of 10-20 bps to GDP growth in the next two years, while in a high-stress
scenario, we expect downside of 30-60 bps to GDP growth," Morgan Stanley said.
Continue structural reforms for sustainable growth: Raghuram Rajan - The Reserve
Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has once again reiterated that India needs to
stay on the path of sound domestic policies and structural reforms to achieve sustainable
growth. "Although India stands out in terms of relatively stronger growth and improved
economic fundamentals, we need to stay on the path of sound domestic policies and
structural reforms," Rajan wrote in the foreword to the latest edition of the regulator's
Financial Stability Report. Rajan added that it was imperative that India dealt with legacy
issues that were holding back growth and bring about changes to improve the
effectiveness of our business processes and conduct. Once again raising the issue of stress
in the banking sector the RBI governor said that clean-up of the system should be dealt
with priority.
✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS
Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked people to declare their undisclosed income by
September 30, making it clear that this is the last chance to avoid problems.
Exports from special economic zones logged a marginal growth of 0.77% to Rs 4.67
trillion in 2015-16.
Touching a new high, India's holding of American government securities jumped to
USD121.6 billion in April amid uncertain global economic cues.
To clear the air on retrospective applicability of the stringent anti-avoidance GAAR rule,
the I-T department has said the same will not apply to income from transfer of
investments before April 1, 2017.
The Food Safety and Standard Authority of India is working on regulations to check
misleading and unsubstantiated health and nutritional claims made by food and beverage
companies.
To give a boost to public spending, the government has increased the financial powers of
individual ministries. The Union Cabinet and the Cabinet Committee on Economic
Affairs will now on only review proposals that exceed Rs. 10 billion while proposals
between Rs. 5 billion and Rs. 10 billion would be cleared by the Finance Minister.
The government is preparing the ground for at least one strategic stake sale in a public
sector unit this fiscal.
The power ministry has sent a note to the Cabinet seeking its approval for the new
bidding document for domestic coal-based ultra mega power projects .
More than 10 million central government employees will get a pay hike after the Cabinet
approved the implementation of the recommendations of the Seventh Central Pay
Commission.
The Cabinet cleared a new mineral exploration policy that will allow private companies
to carry out stand-alone exploration for the first time.
Sugar mills have paid about 92% of their Rs. 529 billion cane dues to growers so far,
with only Rs. 42.25 billion pending for the current sugar season.
A model law that allows shops, malls and other establishments to operate throughout the
year received Cabinet approval, which will give them the flexibility to open and shut at
their convenience.
The core sector index, which measures output of eight infrastructure industries, rose
2.8% in May, down from 8.5% in the previous month.
Retail inflation for industrial workers rose to 6.59% in May from 5.86% in the previous
month on account of increase in price of food items.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved implementation of three highway
projects entailing a cost of almost Rs. 60 billion.
The setting up of eight new Indian Institutes of Technology will now cost an estimated
Rs. 139.90 billion as against Rs. 60.80 billion, after the Cabinet approved the revised cost
estimates.
Expressing “serious disappointment” with the NDA government for not accepting
modifications suggested by them, the National Joint Action Committee , comprising 3.5
million Railway, Defence, Central government and Postal employees, has called for a
strike on July 11.
The Supreme Court declined to stay an order of the Appellate Tribunal for Electricity
that directed a group of state electricity distribution companies to pay around Rs. 10.50
billion to Reliance Power's Sasan Power Ltd
To provide relief to Corporates with income abroad, the Tax Department has notified
‘Foreign Tax Credit’ rules allowing companies to claim credit for taxes, surcharge and
cess paid overseas.
✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
Larsen & Toubro has won orders amounting to Rs. 24.16 billion across three business
segments – building & factories, power transmission & distribution, and smart world &
communication – in June 2016.
Adani Enterprises, has raised Rs. 1.50 billion through issuance of non-convertible
debentures on private placement basis.
MBL Infrastructures Limited has bagged a Rs. 7.79 billion road project from the
National Highways Authority of India.
Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited has commissioned two units of 14MW each at Salma
Hydro Electric Project order worth Rs. 5.70 billion from Power Grid Corporation of India
for supply of the world's largest STATCOM (Synchronous Compensator in Afghanistan.
Siemens Limited has bagged an projects, the Indian arm of the German capital goods
company.
Bharti Airtel Limited and Axiata Group Berhad have further extended the agreement for
merger of their Bangladesh operations till September 26, 2016.
The Enforcement Directorate summoned British liquor major Diageo and United Spirits
Limited in connection with the USD 75 million deal between the two in February this
year.
TVS Capital Funds has sold its investment in Wonderla Holidays Limited, as an anchor
investor before the theme park and resort owner went public.
Alembic Pharmaceuticals’ Limited two API facilities at Panelav have been successfully
inspected by the USFDA.
RPG Life Sciences has announced its foray into the cosmetics business with the tie-up
with Italy-Swiss based Labo Cosprophar.
Maharashtra government plans to sign a MoU with Tata Power for sourcing 1,000 MW
from the upcoming Dherand Thermal Project.
Motilal Oswal is set to raise USD 250-300 million from overseas investors for a fresh
fund to provide growth capital to mid-market companies in the country.
Bajaj Auto Limited is preparing to launch more motorcycles from the ‘V’ platform
through this fiscal and the next as part of a plan to grow market share in the executive
commuter space.
Gayatri Projects has bagged a Rs. 3.06 billion order from the Centre for four- laning of a
highway on the Andhra Pradesh-Tamil Nadu border.
Reliance communications is rolling out 4G services commercially in Mumbai,
Maharasthra and Andhra Pradesh circles.
Bharti Airtel launched 2G and 3G mobile services in towns of Lumla, Nafra and
Longding in Arunachal Pradesh under its network transformation program "Project
Leap".
Jet Airways, is talking to lenders about raising up to USD180mn through a loan,
banking.
Torrent Pharmaceuticals has entered into an agreement with Hyderabad based Glochem
Industries to acquire the latter's bulk drug manufacturing unit at Vishakhapatnam along
with a few drug master files as a going concern on slump sale basis.
✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
Country's second- largest lender ICICI Bank Limited will add 400 more branches and
expand its ATM network by another 1,000 in the current fiscal to boost business from
retail operations. "We believe that a wide branch network is a cornerstone in retail
banking. Keeping this in mind, we plan to add around 400 branches this fiscal. We also
plan to expand our ATM network by adding over 1,000 ATMs," Chanda Kochhar
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of ICICI Bank said in an Interview.
Cautioning against expecting too much from central banks, RBI Governor Raghuram
Rajan has said it is wrong on their part also to always claim a 'bazooka' left up their
sleeves, even as he asserted that life is "very d ifficult" in emerging markets. In a panel
discussion here on lessons learnt by the central bankers from the global financial crisis, he
also took on the industrial nations for expecting the emerging markets to be "orthodox" in
their monetary and economic policies at a time when they themselves have "thrown out
the orthodoxy out of the window". He was speaking at a panel discussion after the Per
Jacobsson Foundation Lecture, delivered by JPMorgan Chase International Chairman
Jacob Frenkel, on the occasion of the Bank for International Settlements Annual General
Meeting here.
State-owned Syndicate Bank today it plans to raise up to Rs. 4,300 crore by way of
different instruments, including selling shares, to meet business requirements and comply
with global capital adequacy norms. "The bank has planned to access capital market for
raising capital upto the extent of Rs 1,700 crore by issuing equity shares by way of
Qualified Institutional Placement /Rights Issue/ Follow on Public Issue or any other
mode" in one or more tranches, Syndicate Bank said in a regulatory filing.
Leveraging on the popularity of Facebook and Twitter, State Bank of India today
launched 'SBI Mingle', allowing its customers access various banking services via these
social platforms. "Using SBI Mingle, the bank's customers can do a host of banking
services on their Facebook or Twitter accounts at their own convenience," the bank said
in a press release.
Enforcement Directorate officials probing into a bank fraud committed allegedly by
people behind Chennai-based First Leasing have expanded investigation to include
former chief of the Indian cricket board AC Muthiah, who was the company's chairman
and is currently in London. "We have begun Enquiries with him...a preliminary statement
has been obtained from him and about 20 others. At the same time, we are also following
the money trail to secure the proceeds of the crime," said KSVV Prasad, the joint director
investigating the case.
Bank of Maharashtra is planning to raise Rs 1,000 crore for growth opportunities and has
sought approval from shareholders for it. The approval was sought at the bank's annual
general meeting of shareholders held in Pune. "The meet was held to seek shareholders
consent to raise Rs 1,000 crore by way of FPO/ Rights issue/ QIPs etc to meet capital
requirements as per RBI's Basel III norms to tap future growth opportunities," Bank of
Maharashtra said
The health of the Indian financial system worsened in the six months to March due to
surge in bad loans and dwindling profitability, making banks vulnerable to extreme credit
shocks. But they are well positioned to face liquidity risks like a sudden surge in deposit
withdrawals, the Reserve Bank of India said. Under conditions of extreme stress, bad
loans could surge, hurting state-run lenders more than the rest and putting nearly a quarter
of India's banking capital at risk of at risk of being wiped out through contagion effect if
top borrowers default, the central bank said in its half-yearly Financial Stability Report.
The performance of the corporate sector has improved in the past year as the number of
leveraged companies has fallen and the amount of debt in companies' books has also
declined, Reserve Bank of India said in its bi-annual Financial Stability Report. The
proportion of both leveraged and highly leveraged companies fell in March from a year
ago — leveraged companies, with a negative net worth or a debt-to-equity ratio of 2% or
more, dropped to 14% of the RBI sample size.
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