epilogue magazine, december 2008

Epilogueb e c a u s e t h e r e i s m o r e t o k n o w

www.epilogue.in

Editor Zafar Iqbal Choudhary

Consulting EditorD. Suba Chandran

Associate EditorIrm Amin Baig

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CONTENTS

Prologue

4

Peace Process

Concern 7US Elections 9

ReportTrading Via EmailHaste Makes Waste

A Historic Initiative 37

Columns

Vision From Valley 41Prof Noor Ahmed Baba

Days Gone By 43Prof. Jigar Mohammad

Srinagar Sentiments 55Syeda Afshana

Ladakh

Monarchs Still Exists... 46Skarma Sonam Gya

Reviews

Books 48

3Who Said What

Volume 2, Issue 11, December 2008

IN FOCUS

Assembly Election 2008

Surprise For Many, Shocks For Others11Vote against Azadi ? Not Really12Story behind those long queques 15Kashmiri Pandits return to politics19Atal In Kashmir20What is on agenda ?22Peoples Democratic Party 23Self Rule for lasting Kashmir Solution

National Conference25Ready To Look Beyond Autonomy

Congress : To Rewrite Constitution For 26Empowering Regions

BJP : Making Jammu Epicentre of Power27Defying The Sterotypes28The ‘Lone’ Challenger 30Star Constituencies32Headed For Hung Asssembly34

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ny election is essentially a game those who did not want people to vote

of surprise and shocks. It can't be have been left shocked. But there is a Aan election if the element of word of caution for both sides.

surprise is missing. Till last month Tremendous participation of people in

everyone appeared in a tizzy on holding electoral process should not be seen as a

elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Two verdict on resolution of Kashmir issue.

strong reasons made the Election Government of India has often erred in

Commission, the Government and the the past by construing successful

parties wary –violence and the voter elections as signs of complete normality

turnout. Two phases are over. More than in the Valley. Look at the uprising of

60 per cent of total electorate in 16 summer this year and then see

constituencies has cast their votes. participation of people in elections. The

Overwhelming! Well, this percentage is message from the Valley is very clear.

far above the national average of 55 to People have conveyed that Kashmir

58 per cent. Look at the constituencies issue and elections are two separate

like Gurez and Lolab in north Kashmir subjects which they would like deal with

where turnout is going beyond 70 per separately. Once these elections are

cent. Agreed, that government put over, the Government of India must

strong restrictions against anti-poll make efforts to resume the sagging

campaigners and locked almost all dialogue respecting sentiments of the

senior separatist leaders up but still if majority which has vouched for Indian

people brave the falling temperatures democratic system. Denial will again be

and cut their ways to polling stations delusion. People are now keenly waiting

through thick carpets of snow, what for outcome of the elections. Trends

these elections should be called. don't suggest any single party coming to

Certainly not sham. Democracy has its power at its own. As it did in 2002, the

roots in J&K, strong and deep. Violence, New Delhi should keep away from fixing

the major fear about elections, too a government in J&K. Epilogue recently

makes an interesting story. There have received few complaints from people in

been some incidents of violence in poll Jammu region that why state politics is

bound areas. But put together all always seen in perspective of Kashmir.

incidents will not cross two percent of We would like to clarify this. There can't

what happens in Bihar or even the be any stability in Jammu and Ladakh till

sensible states like the neighbouring completely restored in Kashmir. As long

Himachal Pradesh on poll eve. This is as this objective is pending we have to

how the two phases of polling have keep on talking about Kashmir issue.

passed off and the exercise, spanning This is how we can contribute our bit.

over seven phases, is likely to conclude There is a time to consolidate gains of

like this. The trend has been set with overwhe lming pub l i c fa i th in

surprises for many and shocks for others. democracy.

All those who were wary of violence and Feedback :poor turnout have been surprised by [email protected] response of people and

Time To Consolidate

Zafar Choudhary


P R O L O G U E

FROM THE EDITOR

Epilogueb e c a u s e t h e r e i s m o r e t o k n o w

EPILOGUE aims at providing a platform where a meaningful exchange of ideas, opinion and thoughts can take place among the people and about the people of Jammu & Kashmir. The attempt is to research, investigate, communicate and disseminate information, ideas and alternatives for the resolution of common problems facing the state and society of Jammu & Kashmir and in the context of their significance to South Asia as a whole.

We welcome contributions from academics, journalists, researchers, economists and strategic thinkers. We would also like to encourage first-time writers with the only requirements being a concern for and the desire to understand the prevailing issues and themes of life in Jammu & Kashmir

Contributions may be investigative, descriptive, analytical or theoretical. They may be in the form of original articles or in the form of a comment on current events. All contributions have to be neatly typed in double space and may be sent to the address given alongside or e-mailed to the editor.

W h i l e t h e e d i t o r a c c e p t s responsibility for the selection of the material published, individual authors are responsible for the facts, figures and views in their articles.


H E A R A N D H E A R

WHO SAID WHAT

‘Kashmir belongs to Kashmiris',

ASIF ALI ZARDARI, President, Pakistan, In reply to a question, while addressing Hindustan Times leadership Summit in New Delhi view teleconferencing from Islamabad.

''PDP will never come to Power because of the loss and tragedy caused by them in (Amarnath) Land Dispute'

Dr. FAROOQ ABDULLAH, Chief Ministerial candidate of NC, while addressing media persons at the party headquarter in Jammu.

These elections are held under the shadow of the guns of 800,000 soldiers; it's a 'fauji drama'

SYED ALI SHAH GEELANI, Senior Separatist Leader, while addressing his first press conference after return from New Delhi (for treatment).

‘N.C has reverted to its age-old tactics of deceit and emotional blackmail to grab power'

MUFTI MOHAMMAD SAYEED, Patron, PDP, while addressing an election rally in Lolab, Kashmir.

As long as (Syed Ali Shah Geelani) is alive, Kashmir will not get freedom'

SAJJAD LONE, Leader, People's Conference, while replying to the allegations of Syed Ali Shah Geelani, that he is tacitly supporting three election candidates in North

Kashmir

In VerbatimIn Verbatim

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Epilogue Report

J&K Worried As Mumbai StormingThreatens Peace Process

P E A C E P R O C E S S

CONCERN

National Conference and former chief from Jammu and Kashmir was he blame game after minister, also condemned the Mumbai scheduled to visit Muzaffarabad to take Mumbai terror storm has attack in strong words. forward talks on trade across the Line once again brought India

Of Control that divides Kashmir and Pakistan eye to eye but T between India and Pakistan.people of Jammu and 'I feel this was planned and executed by Kashmir do not want this to happen. As those groups that do not want India and the terror trail at India's financial Pakistan to come closer. I think a 'We are worried about its future now capital assumes larger proportions Security Council meeting be called on after these attacks in Mumbai. But we than any incident of terrorism in post- this where both India and Pakistan, all want this visit to go on as planned,' independence history of country, the besides other major countries, should said Ram Sahai, president of the intellegentia, political and business talk it out,' says Abdullah. He said Chamber of Commerce and Industries in class are getting wary of its though there would be some short term Jammu. ‘The continued involvement of repercussions. There is a strong urge effect on the peace process, 'it will be both sides in such times of crisis is a from all that the Mumbai attack should able to sustain in the long term'. must to fight terrorism together. I am not be allowed to derail the peace sure my friends across the LoC in process between India and Pakistan Pakistan will not be happy over such Perhaps their words come none to soon. and both the countries have to fight terrorist attacks.'Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab the scourge of terrorism together.

Mukherjee has already said the

terrorists had links with Pakistan but Rekha Choudhary, a political expert 'The Mumbai attack in which innocent said he could not give any details from Jammu University, said: 'We must l ives have been lost is most because investigations were still on. keep in mind that Pakistan itself is now a condemnable. These are reprehensible victim of terrorism. Both India and acts of terror against humanity,' said Pakistan have to cooperate with each The militants attacked prominent Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, patron of the other and devise strategies to fight landmarks in Mumbai on the night of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and terrorism jointly.'D e c e m b e r 2 6 a n d former chief minister.

continued their assault

for next 60 hours. On whether it would have an impact on Apprehensions about the the India-Pakistan peace process, he future of the peace said: 'It might have a temporary effect process have been raised but I do not see any long term impact. as ties between the two We must understand that India and countries were snapped Pakistan have to live together and fight after the December 2001 terrorism together. Even Pakistan is attack on the Indian facing the same kind of terrorism.' parliament, which India

blamed on Pakistan-

based terrorists. Ties He felt that India and Pakistan would b e t w e e n t h e t w o stand to benefit if they fought terrorism countries have improved jointly.greatly since then.

A business delegation Farooq Abdullah, the patron of the


Mayank Chhaya, in New York

Mumbai Attacks May SharpenObama’s Kashmir Focus


CONCERN

he multiple terror attacks on the Middle East who has been appointed logical that he would have to pay Mumbai could push the by the new president as his Pakistan particular attention to Kashmir.incoming Barack Obama adviser. administration to sharpen its While the chatter over Obama Tfocus on the Kashmir issue. In an interview with the influential proposing to appoint a special envoy on

The attacks are being viewed by some in think tank Council on Foreign Relations Kashmir has died down in recent weeks, the transition team here as President- Reidel was quoted as saying as recently it is clear that the Mumbai attacks elect Obama's first major national as September: "There's another place would bring back a whole lot of options security challenge that could draw him where I feel creative American on the table. At the very least they into the Kashmir dispute sooner than he diplomacy could be helpful. We ought to would force Obama and his South Asia might like. Although there is no direct try to encourage a long-term advisers to reassess the situation on the link established between the terrorists settlement between India and Pakistan ground. Those who know the issue of operating in Kashmir with those who of the Kashmir dispute, based again on terror in India understand that the carried out the Mumbai attacks, a case the principle that the existing Line of mushrooming jehadi outfits use the may be made that eventually all jehadi Contro l ought to become an justification of the community having groups are bound by a common Islamist international border with some special been wronged in India as much as it philosophy. status reserved for Kashmiris." having been wronged globally. To that extent the Deccan Mujahedeen, a likely offshoot of the more organized "We can't expect Pakistan to behave like Such outfits no longer make any Indian Mujahedeen, may well share the a normal state, unless it has normal distinction between what they consider broader vision of those operating in borders. And we can't expect Pakistan to wrongs being done to Indian Muslims Kashmir. behave the way we would like it to while and those being done to Muslims

it's obsessed and fixated on its neighbor worldwide. This fusion of global and Part of the reason why the Mumbai and the problem in Kashmir. The domestic grievance among the jehadi attacks could more sharply define the problem in Kashmir has been in the groups, perceived or real, could make it new Kashmir approach is because in the doldrums for the past several years. It is hard for the Obama administration to final analysis Kashmir (including the now starting to boil really quickly, and tailor their Kashmir policy.part under Pakistani control) is seen as a when Kashmir boils, the result is Indian-fount of the rising Islamist terror in Pakistani tensions that can produce war. Nobody knows who Deccan Mujahedeen India. Of course, factors such as the We've seen that over and over again," he are or what their objectives are or 2002 mass killings of Muslims in Gujarat said. whether they feel any affinity towards do fuel some of the sense of extreme the Kashmiri separatists. But it may be disenchantment within the Muslim With Prime Minister Manmohan Singh safe to assume that all these groups community. However, the larger pointing at external links of the Mumbai morph into each other when it comes to connection between the disparate attackers, it is not lost on experts in the what they have framed in their minds as groups will always remain a feeling of US that he could be talking of groups Islam versus the world conflict. It is in pan-Islamism. based in Pakistan. If that is indeed the this nebulousness that the Obama

case the brazen Mumbai attacks could administration will have to pitch its Perhaps the clearest indication of a yet work up new tensions with Pakistan. Kashmir approach in the framework of more pro-active Kashmir approach Since Obama is committed to making its national security policy on South under Obama has come from Bruce Afghan i s tan and Pak i s tan h i s Asia, in the light of threat perceptions Reidel, a former CIA officer and adviser administration's foreign policy as well emanating from Afghanistan and to three US presidents on South Asia and national security priority, it is only Pakistan. (Courtesy IANS)


Mark Sappenfield & Shahan Mufti

Is Kashmir Key ToAfghanistan Peace ?


US ELECTIONS

s part of his push to find new

solutions to the war in

Afghanistan, US President-

elect Barack Obama is Aconsidering a new diplomatic

push on Kashmir, reversing eight years of

American silence on the issue.

Mr. Obama has argued that Pakistan will

not fully commit to fighting the

insurgency it shares with Afghanistan

until it sheds historic insecurities toward

India. Talks about Kashmir, the central

point of contention between the two

nuclear rivals, are among the "critical

tasks for the next administration,"

Obama said in an interview last month

with Time magazine.

It is a strategy that worries Indians, who entire region, which includes not on India, but on the situation with

suggest the Pakistani Army is Afghanistan. those militants," he told MSNBC on Oct.

blackmailing Obama to support its 31.

claims. Yet security analysts say the General Petraeus has been an open Afghan insurgency has roots in the power advocate of regional diplomacy as a key Obama went further in the Time struggle between India and Pakistan and counterinsurgency tactic. On Oct. 15, he interview, mentioning he has spoken with cannot be solved without a regional told a round table of Washington Post former President Bill Clinton about approach. reporters that in seeking solutions to becoming a special envoy to the region – a

Afghanistan, "there may be opportunities comment that has been front-page news

"It will be very hard to put Afghanistan on with respect to India." in India and Pakistan.

a long-term positive path without

alleviating some of the Indo-Pakistan The goal would be to build a level of trust Nothing could be more damaging to tensions," says Xenia Dormandy of the between India and Pakistan, freeing American interests in the region, says Belfer Center for Science and Pakistan from its historic fear of India, Raja Mohan, a member of India's National International Affairs at Harvard with which it has fought three wars. The Security Advisory Board. He claims Indo-University in Cambridge, Mass. surest way to do this, Obama has said, is Pakistan relations are better than they

to find a solution to Kashmir – the state have ever been, citing the recent opening

Such ideas would appear to fit well with split between each but claimed in full by of trade between Pakistan - and-Indian-

the doctrines of Gen. David Petraeus, both. controlled Kashmir as something that

who oversaw a significant improvement would have been unthinkable in the past.

in law and order in Iraq. He is now the "We should try to resolve the Kashmir commander of American forces in the crisis so that [Pakistan] can stay focused – Moreover, he suggests India and Pakistan

It is a strategy that

worries Indians, who

suggest the Pakistani

Army is blackmailing

Obama to support its

claims. Yet security

analysts say the Afghan

insurgency has roots in the

power struggle between

India and Pakistan and

cannot be solved without

a regional approach.


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

have behind the scenes made significant yielded to Indian influence. Fears are Malik, a Pakistani government security

progress on the issue of Kashmir, to the stoked by the memories of 1971, when adviser during a trip to Washington.

point that the two nations have a the Indian Army helped Bengalis secede

tentative road map for how to resolve the from Pakistan to form Bangladesh. With Analysts say this might be true, but only crisis. It was scuppered only by the Afghanistan historically claiming a to a small degree. Militants "might be collapse of former Pakistani President significant chunk of Pakistan as its own, getting some support from India, but it's Pervez Musharraf's regime in August. Pakistanis worry that an Indian-backed not anywhere near what the Pakistanis

Afghanistan could dismember Pakistan like to suggest," says Marvin Weinbaum, further. Bush steered clear of Kashmir an analyst at the Middle East Institute in

Washington. The progress was partly the result of the "Pakistan is the only country in South Asia Bush administration's decision to steer that stands between India's complete clear of Kashmir, says Mr. Mohan. Entering Privately, a Pakistani diplomat who spoke hegemony in this region," says Fahmida the fray now would only disrupt the on condition of anonymity agrees. India's Ashraf, an analyst at the Institute for delicate balance, making it appear as if involvement in the unrest along Strategic Studies in Islamabad, a the US was merely trying to placate Pakistan's western front "might be no thinktank funded by the Pakistan Pakistan in return for its support in the more than 5 percent of all the trouble out government. war against terror. there." But publicly, Pakistan "is basing

its Afghan and Indian policy on its Repeatedly, Pakistan's Army has acted to In such a case, Mohan says, India might perception," says Mr. Weinbaum. prevent this from happening. It has done have a hard time winning concessions for this by cultivating networks of militants a fair deal: "So long as the Pakistani Army In July, militants struck the Indian as a proxy army. In Afghanistan, the thinks that the Americans are on their Embassy in Kabul with a bomb blast that Pakistan-backed mujahideen chased out side, they're not going to deal with India." killed 41 people. American intelligence the Soviet Union, India's ally. Then the agencies have said they have evidence Pakistan-backed Taliban took control of Both Obama and his top South Asia that Pakistan's intelligence agency, the the country, preventing it from falling adviser, Bruce Riedel, have spoken of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) into the hands of pro-India Northern need to be discreet. In a 2007 directorate, was involved. "Even today, Alliance warlords. teleconference for the journal Foreign the Pakistani military sees India as the

Affairs, Mr. Riedel said: "I would urge the threat," says Ms. Dormandy, of Harvard. This proxy war continues. India has administration to seize the opportunity "Until that attitude changes, you're not invested $750 million and pledged $450 to quietly, but forcefully, push for a going to see Pakistan step back from its million more to the government of resolution there." historically strong use of militant assets President Hamid Karzai, who is strongly to affect foreign policy." pro-India. India is Afghanistan's largest In the interview he called Kashmir "the trade partner. And it has taken the itch that has driven Pakistan towards There are signs that this attitude is provocative step of opening consulates in supporting terrorism for the last 20 beginning to change. Pakistan is now two cities sitting on the border with years." Indeed, many experts say the fighting many of the militants it once Pakistan – Jalalabad and Kandahar. enmity – for which Kashmir is the most sheltered in Bajaur and Swat in northern

potent symbol – has shaped security in Pakistan. Obama's intent would be to Pakistan claims Indian intelligence the region, including Afghanistan. accelerate this process and send a clear agencies are using these consulates as message to Pakistan. "Why do you want bases, though it has never made this to keep on being bogged down with [India Rivalry plays out in Afghanistanevidence public. Generally speaking, the and Kashmir], particularly at a time For years, the mutual mistrust has led allegations are that India is funding where the biggest threat now is coming India and Pakistan to play their own separatist militants in the Pakistani from the Afghan border?" he told Time. "I version of the Great Game in Afghanistan. province of Balochistan. think there is a moment where India has consistently been Afghanistan's

potentially we could get their attention.”main ally in the region. But Pakistan sees "India wants to destabilize [Pakistan's tribal Afghanistan as its strategic backyard, areas] and Balochistan," said Rahman (By arrangement : Christian Science Monitor)which under no circumstances can be

There are no easy conclusions. But the voters in parts of Kashmir Valley have left the mainstream political parties surprised and separatists shocked. Dispelling all worries and fears of a low voter turnout which could have been an international embarrassment for India, the first two phases of polling in the ongoing Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections have set a confident trend for the subsequent phases. An average poll percentage of 65 in 16 out of 87 constituencies was no one's imagination. Almost every constituency has registered a remarkable upward poll percentage over the figure of 2002 when enthusiasm was at its highest and even separatists had fielded proxies in some constituencies of Kashmir Valley. As state moves towards subsequent phases of polling and fears of decline in voter percentage return, even 15 per cent turnout in Srinagar district (going to polls along with Jammu district in last phase on December 24), which appears certain, will be a record polling of last two decades.

n Jammu and Kashmir –Jammu,

Kashmir and Ladakh –the regions

have always responded differently

to the electoral process. For Jammu Iand Ladakh elections are a

democratic competitive exercise the way

they are in any part of India involving all

ingredients of emerging electoral trends,

good and bad. In Kashmir Valley it is a

different scenario, always. Once the

Government of India would get elections

rigged to see formation of a government

of its choice. Now it is about good voter


Zafar Choudhary

Surprise For Many, Shocks For Others

I N F O C U S

COVER STORY


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

participation and no matter which party while it is to be seen as which party

returns to power at the end of the day. A actually wins to form the next

high voter turnout is victory for India government.

over Kashmir and a poor percentage ince 1989 the major challenge proves point of separatists and gives about holding any election in Pakistan a much required leverage for SJammu and Kashmir has always drumbeating about the 'disputed' nature been security. Militant threat, an of territory. Therefore, any election, increased pitch of violence and hostile particularly post-1987, has never been circumstances drove the participants, less than a referendum. The way aspirants and electors alike, away from elections are officially projected here, the electoral process. This time there the competition between parties for was no such threat even as caution forming government appears as a always remains. Still the Election ancillary product of exercise and not the Commission and Government of India main exercise, per se. Going by the appeared in a double mind on holding voter enthusiasm, the elections of 2008 elections in the state at this stage. are well geared to declare India winner Worries were quite genuine. If people

are shooed away from election scene by movement as people would throng to

the ominous threat of gun it makes going the streets in hundreds of thousands on

tough for the contestants but call of Kashmir Coordination Committee

strengthens India's one major point on –an amalgam of several separatist outfit

Kashmir –Pakistan and its sponsored floated early this year to oppose

militants are derailing the course of transfer of land to Amarnath shrine. It

democracy in Jammu and Kashmir. An was the call of coordination committee

imminent international condemnation which saw over two lakh people trooping

for Pakistan and, may be, some towards Uri in Baramulla August this

sympathies for India. Imagine a year as a symbolic march towards

converse situation. There is no role of Muzaffarabad and then as many of them

gun and still people do not come to vote. gathering at the Srinagar Id Gah

This makes it tough for India to explain chanting slogans for Azadi. Since then

as what happened in Kashmir. The most parts of Kashmir Valley have

second scenario has this year been continuously reeled under curfew

clearer than ever in the two-decade –declared and undeclared. The same

long current history of separatist coordination committee calling for a

movement in Jammu and Kashmir. In the complete boycott of elections had left

backdrop of the 'Summer 2008 Uprising' everyone wondering for the possible

triggered by the Amarnath land transfer options to hold elections in Kashmir and

row it was a movement of peoples and then draw some people to the polling

not militants which set Kashmir burning booths.

and boiling and the establishment After two phases of polling in five looking for options to quell the protests. constituencies of Kashmir Valley, four in There was no militant angle to the Ladakh and seven in Jammu division, it

By Definition...

Vote against Azadi? Not Really

Name 2002 2008

Average number 5.81 12.85of candidates

Karnah 07 14

Kupwara 07 19

Lolab 10 10

Handwara 09 13

Langate 10 15

Uri 03 13

Rafiabad 07 09

Sopore 06 24

Sangrama 07 19

Baramulla 13 12

Gulmarg 02 15

Pattan 03 13

Gurez 05 06

Bandipora 06 19

Sonawari 06 22

Kangan 07 10

Ganderbal 06 11

Chadoora 08 18

Budgam 07 16

Beerwah 06 17

Khansaheb 04 11

Charar-e-Sharief 04 09

Nobra 01 05

Leh 01 04

Kargil 02 05

Zanskar 04 05

Total 151 334

Gulabgarh 10 14

Reasi 12 15

Gool-Arnas 10 10

Udhampur 14 18

Chenani 07 12

Ramnagar 09 12

Nowshera 05 11

Darhal 09 12

Rajouri 14 23

Kalakote 05 13

Surankote 06 11

Mendhar 05 12

Poonch-Haveli 06 13

Total 112 176

Average number 8.62 13.54of candidates


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

has become difficult for the separatists

to understand and explain as what drove “These elections are not any indication people to the polling booths. The of a vote for India. These (elections) overwhelming voter turnout on have been held against wishes and November 17 and then on November 23 aspiration of people who had made clear was an imminent surprise and shock as it by their protests between June and was bound to happen after an August that they stand for right to self unprecedented participation of determination”, says separatist contestants and a record number of hardliner Syed Ali Shah Geelani. He rallies and outdoor elections meetings prefers to skirt a much required since announcement of poll schedule on comment on overwhelming voter

participation. Reacting to first phase of

polling, the ailing veteran separatist

said in a statement, “undoubtedly

people of these constituencies

(Bandipora, Gurez and Sonawari) face

problems of jobs, roads and other basic

amenities which pro-India parties

promise to address in lieu of votes”. He

added, when a nation fights for freedom

its people have to rise above self

interests and be ready to offer

sacrifices. I hope people of other

October 19. Percentage of voter turnout constituencies will show sympathy to

is not likely to come down by any drastic lakhs of Kashmiris, who laid their lives

measure in the subsequent phases in for their birthright of plebiscite and

view of the prevailing enthusiasm and boycott the polls”. Six days later, people

an unprecedented participation of in two more constituencies of Kashmir

contestants. –Ganderbal and Kangan –chose to ignore

5 Constituencies Total Vote count: 341004

Karnah, 26591 (13,613M, 12,978F); Kupwara, 90594 (46,974M, 43,620F); Lolab, 85,474 (45,069M, 40,405F); Handwara, 78,118 (40,549M, 37,569F); Langate, 60,227 (31,655M, 28,572F)

etter known as ideological Bstronghold of widely respected separatist leader late Abdul Ghani and post-2002 his sons Sajjad and Bilal, but in electoral politics people of Kupwara have been invariably trusting NC for almost three decades. As proxy of Peoples Conference, GM Sofi took away Handwara seat from NC in 2002. While Sofi still remains strong in pitch, Lone's daughter Shabnam has defied anti-poll campaign of brothers to seek election from Kupwara constituency. On remaining three seats, NC is saddled comfortably against Congress, PDP and independents. Anti-election campaign is more likely to influence fortune of contestants than their performance and credibility.

DISTRICT

12

3

45

KUPWARA Percentage of voter turnout is not

likely to come down by any

drastic measure in the subsequent

phases in view of the prevailing

enthusiasm and an

unprecedented participation of

contestants.

PDP president, Mehbooba Mufti, at a public meeting in Ganderbal.PDP president, Mehbooba Mufti, at a public meeting in Ganderbal.


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

Geelani's appeal and turned up in still forced to stay away from the polling

more numbers to cast their votes. The booths…now they come to polling

overall poll percentage in Ganderbal booths or not, it for them to see”, says

district has been recorded at 52.5% J&K's Chief Election Officer BR Sharma.

against 43% of 2002. In Bandipore Separatists say that the high polling district which went to polls in first phase percentage has been possible only due on November 17, the overall poll the strict restrictions and strong arm percentage was around 63% against 54% tactics against the anti-election of 2002. In 2002 the elections were held campaign. These arguments can not be in a pleasant weather and absence of brushed aside easily in view of situation any major boycott call from separatists. explained above. But why the anti-This time, most of the areas of election campaign when people are Bandipore district were under a snow clear about what they have in mind. cover of upto three feet and sub-zero Interestingly, the trend in present degree temperature prevailed all elections have boldly underlined one around. important fact that a common man in

Kashmir is more clear about his ideas as

well as ideologies than the separatist or The elections are still being described as

sham by separatists but not even a single

allegation has come, even from

separatist camp, to suggest any

coercion on part of government in

pulling crowds to the polling stations. It

is true that the top separatist leaders

have either been jailed or put under

house arrest and strict restrictions have

been imposed on taking out any boycott

campaigns. Urban areas of Valley,

particularly in central and north

Kashmir, have been intermittently

coming under an undeclared curfew like mainstream political elites. The situations to thwart the boycott political elites of all hues, whether in campaigns. Top separatist leaders Srinagar, New Delhi or Islamabad, link Mohammad Yaseen Malik and Shabir elections with the basic Kashmir issue Ahmed Shah have been booked under and try to score a point over each other Public Safety Act for their anti-election according to convenience of prevailing activities. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq is under situation. “Elections are not any house arrest and so is the case with Syed solution to Kashmir issue”, argues Ali Shah Geelani who returned to Hurriyat leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq. Kashmir only in last week of November Noor Mohammad Kalwal, an 80 year old after his treatment in New Delhi and resident of a Bandipore village who Mumbai. There is clearly a strong use of walked more than two kilometers over force to prevent the separatists from snow to cast his vote, does not differ taking out rallies and processions much from Mirwaiz. “Elections are against elections. However, what earns certainly no solution to Kashmir issue credibility to the election exercise is but there are a host of other issues that there is absolutely no use of force which can be resolved through elections to make people to vote. “This is our alone”, says Kalwal. He has a long list of responsibility to facilitate a smooth and complaints against the local MLA but the fearless electioneering and polling. Our point of relevance he makes here is: effort is to ensure that people are not

2 Constituencies Total Vote Count :

Kangan, 59,879 (31,354M, 28,525F); Ganderbal, 77,616 (39,982M, 37,634F)

n 2002, Ganderbal emerged as Isymbol of change in Kashmir politics when third generation heir of Abdullah dynasty and NC's Chief Ministerial candidate Omar Abdullah lost to a hitherto unknown Qazi Mohammad Afzal of PDP. Nothing worst could have happened to Abdullahs. Omar is again face to face with Qazi. Curfew like situation prevailed at headquarters of this new district when PDP workers brought down NC banners the day Omar filed nomination papers. On his second visit to constituency, Police had a tough time when Congress workers pelted stoned at his cavalcade. He is tendering public apologies for past mistakes as contest is not quite smooth. In Kangan, Mian Altaf Ahmed appears well placed to win seat fourth time in row.

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DISTRICT GANDERBAL

There is clearly a strong use of

force to prevent the separatists

from taking out rallies and

processions against elections.

However, what earns credibility

to the election exercise is that

there is absolutely no use of force

to make people to vote.


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

“don't mix up elections with Kashmir the mass uprising of this year, following

issue”. Amarnath land dispute.

Our team traveled across several areas ndia has an average polling

of Bandipore and Ganderbal districts percentage of 58%. Past trends

and shared with many people Syed Ali Isuggest that more people from rural

Shah Geelani's argument of sacrificing areas turn for exercising their voting

the right to vote for resolution of rights than their urban counterparts. It

Kashmir issue. The dominant opinion has been very recently that urban poll

from a cross section of respondents percentage has started picking up but

says: “Kashmir issue has its own still it is far less than the rural trends.

importance and we will keep fighting for Boycotting the boycott call of

that; election is about addressing the separatists and braving the chill, if

local issues and we don't want to waste around 55% are turning up to vote in

this opportunity”. Bandipore and Kashmir Valley and the overall

Ganderbal districts were the hot spot of percentage is going much higher

violent protests and demonstrations in (including districts of Jammu and

Ladakh regions) it can be seen as victory comprehend or explain the reasons of

of democracy. But democracy overnight this blatant defiance of their boycott

turning highly competitive in Kashmir calls. The only reason they have been

have left many wanting for reasons. able to offer is that the government

Bandipore constituency polled 31% in bundled them all in to ensure that anti-

2002 and this time it was 57%. Ganderbal election campaign is not taken out. Not

has polled 51% against 35% of last time. a cogent reason. There are no reports or

There is hostile weather and strong anti- allegations (even from separatists) of

election movement but still people are government forcing people to vote.

coming out in large numbers. Then who is pulling crowds to the polling

Separatists are not able to either booths. The answer perhaps rests with


Gurez, 15,330 (8,006M, 7,324F); Bandipora, 86,013 (45,120M, 40,893F) ; Sonawari , 84,726 (43,722M, 41,004F)

andipore district was carved out of Barmulla Blast year. Except Gurez

constituency which is both geographically and ideologically usually cut off from rest of Kashmir Valley, Bandipore has a contest between separatists with mainstream leanings and the mainstreamers. Kukka Parray, the militant commander turned politician won Sonawari in 1996 and lost to NC after a significant contest in 2002. His Deputy in Awami League Usman Majid, however, won neighbouring Bandipore with a thin margin. While no major party is out of contest here but none of them can be seen much ahead of others. Independents are still better placed.

DISTRICT BANDIPORA

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11

Story behind those long queues


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

an unprecedentedly and surprisingly Kashmir Valley, this time the average

high number of candidates taking part in participation of candidates per

elections. On an average around five constituency is 12. For example,

candidates contested 2002 elections in Sopore, the home turf of Hurriyat leader

20 of 46 assembly constituencies of Syed Ali Shah Geelani had only six

7 Constituencies Total Vote Count: 518215

Uri, 65,476 (34,351M, 31,125F); Rafiabad, 70,256 (36,282M 33,974F); Sopore, 89,395 (46,359M, 43,476F); Sangrama, 58,492 (30,235M, 28,257F); Baramulla, 73,587 (38,117M 35,470F); Gulmarg, 81,662 (42,408M, 39,254F); Pattan, 78,907 (40,595M 38,312F)

takes are highest for all parties Sin Baramulla as their stalwarts of Kashmir politics belong to this district. Home of state Congress president and Union Minister Saif-ud-Din Soz has one of his predecessors Ghulam Rasool Kar in fray as independent in Sopore. Representing Uri five times in row, NC veteran Mohammad Shafi was unseated by Taj Mohiuddin of Congress by 184 votes in 2002. Both are again face to face. Abdullah dynasty scion Mustafa Kamal is facing PDP rebel and DP-N founder Ghulam Hassan Mir in Gulmarg. Ex-DyCM Muzaffar Hussain Baig (Baramulla), Dillawar Mir (Rafiabad) and Iftikhar Ansari (Pattan) are PDP's hopes of survival. Congress' No 2 in Valley Ghani Vakil and NC MP AR Shaheen are also in fray.

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7

141213

15

BARAMULLADISTRICT

Observers believe that high voter percentage is a direct consequence of

large number of candidates participation in the elections. For example,

after an intense campaign, every candidate is able to pull an average of

500 to 1000 supporters to the polling booths, the net voter turnout at the

end of the day can be something upward 15,000 put together with the

share of main contenders. A horde of independent candidates and the

candidates from smaller parties or the national parties is actually

enhancing the voter turnout to unexpected percentages. Participation of

such players in huge numbers in the Kashmir is quite unusual and

something unforeseen in Valley's electoral landscape. For instance BJP

and Jammu based Panthers Party each have fielded more than 25

candidates in the Valley where the electoral scene took off at a time when

regional and Kashmir based parties like National Conference and

Peoples Democratic Party were dragging feet in view of prevailing hostile

circumstances.


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

candidates contesting in 2002. This time

there are 24 candidates in fray. There

are 15 in Gulmarg against two in 2002

and 22 in Sonawari against only six in last

elections. In Bandipora constituency, as

compared to six candidates in 2002, a

total of 19 contestants are in the fray

this time.

More participation of candidates

obviously makes the game more

competitive. A remarkably high

number of candidates is leading to

intense electioneering in these

constituencies. According to J&K

Government, at least 1300 rallies and

other election meetings were held in

one month after announcement of percentages. Participation of such

elections on October 19. An upward of players in huge numbers in the Kashmir 800 such rallies and meetings were is quite unusual and something held in Kashmir alone. It is important unforeseen in Valley's electoral to note here that except three landscape. For instance BJP and incidents of grenade lobbing –two on Jammu based Panthers Party each have Mehbooba Mufti's cavalcade and one on

fielded more than 25 candidates in the National Conference meeting –all

Valley where the electoral scene took election related meeting and rallies

off at a time when regional and went off peacefully with no report of

m i l i t an t v i o l ence f r om

anywhere.

Observers believe that high

voter percentage is a direct

consequence of large number

of candidates participation in

the elections. For example,

after an intense campaign,

every candidate is able to pull

an average of 500 to 1000

supporters to the polling

booths, the net voter turnout

at the end of the day can be

something upward 15,000 put

together with the share of

main contenders. A horde of

independent candidates and

the candidates from smaller

parties or the national parties

is actually enhancing the voter

t u rnou t t o unexpec ted


Hazaratbal, 82,675 (42,930M, 39,745F); Zadibal, 66,800 (34,565M, 32,235F); Iddgah, 58,245 (30,370M, 27,875F); Khanyar, 53,842 (28,086M, 25,756F); Habakadal, 51,391 (26,325M, 25,066F); Amirakadal, 75,488 (38,936M, 36,552F); Sonawar, 66,065 (34,313M, 31,752F); Batmaloo, 1,02,759 (53,459M, 49,300F)

afest constituency for NC in SValley has always been Srinagar district. Its tally reduced from cent percent to 5 out of 8 in 2002 as two independents and one Congressman won. Intruding into NC bastion in a 2004 bye-election in Batamalloo, PDP's Tariq Hameed Karra made a way for party's expansion in urban landscape. Dr Abdullah, who had skipped 2002 polls, is contesting from Hazratbal. While signs of internal rebellion are clearly visible, NC's worries are compounded by growing presence of PDP and a new contestant emerging from home –ANC of Farooq's estranged brother-in-law, former CM GM Shah. Being cadre based party low turnout in urban areas is always NC's advantage. Overwhelming participation of Kashmir Pandits is another interesting factor this time.

DISTRICT SRINAGAR

25

2322 21

2019

18

24

Name 2008 2002

Gurez 73.59 76.50

Bandipora 57.24 31.27

Sonawari 59.64 56.51

Nobra 74.23 U/C

Leh 64 U/C

Kargil 72.04 74.83

Zanaskar 72.51 78.97

Surankote 74.38 40.01

Mendhar 77.46 60.29

Poonch 74.46 60.73

Kangan 59.35 52.03

Ganderbal 51.97 35.20

Nowshera 73.69 57.84

Darhal 76.74 46.61

Rajouri 70.16 27.01

Kalakote 69.53 48.66


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

Kashmir based parties like National Budgam, the number of contestants

Conference and Peoples Democratic this time has gone up to 18 as

Party were dragging feet in view of against only 8 in the last Assembly

prevailing hostile circumstances. elections.

Newly found part ies, Peoples Similarly, in Jammu province, where 13

Democrat i c F ront o f Hakeem constituencies are going to polls in the

Mohammad Yaseen and Democratic first four phases, as against 112

Party of PDP rebel Ghulam Hassan Mir contestants who fought elections in

have fielded more than 30 candidates 2002, a total number of 176

each. Awami National Conference of Dr contestants are trying their luck in the

Farooq Abdullah's estranged brother- 2008 Assembly elections. There were

in-law GM Shah is participating in 76 contestants in fray in 1983, 74 in

elections for first time and it has come 1987 and 95 in 1996. As compared to

up with over three dozen candidates 8.62 average number of candidates in

and so is the case with another new the Jammu province in 2002 Assembly

party called Socialist Democratic elections, the average number of

Party. candidates in the elections this time is

13.54.

There are two newly floated parties of

Kashmiri Pandits fielding more than The Rajouri constituency in Jammu

two dozen candidates and the Bahujan division, which is going to polls in the

Samaj Party which had no seat in second phase of elections on

dissolved assembly also has around 30 November 23, has the distinction of

candidates fielded from different having the largest number of 23

constituencies in Kashmir Valley. It is contestants in the first four phases. In

agreed that people in Kashmir have comparison, there were 7 candidates

defied separatist diktats but this call in the constituency in 1983, 11 in

of democracy attracting a huge 1987, 6 in 1996 and 14 in 2002.

number of candidates to the electoral Similarly, Udhampur constituency has

battle in Valley incomprehensible. 18 candidates this time as against 17

in 1983, 11 in 1987, 7 in 1996 and 14 in

2002. In Kashmir Division, in comparison to

he self proclaimed election 151 candidates in fray in 2002

boycott of an important elections, a whopping 334 candidates Tingredient of the Kashmiri are contesting elections this time in 26

society is over. One most interesting Assembly constituencies in the first feature of the present assembly four phases. There were 114 elections is overwhelming participation contestants in the ring for 1983 of Kashmiri Pandits. This long delayed elections, 122 in 1987 and 128 in 1996. aspect of elections was perhaps much The average number of candidates in required to make elections really the Kashmir province has also steadily competit ive and participatory. increased from 4.38 in 1983, 4.69 in Kashmiri Pandits have decided to take 1987, 4.92 in 1996, 5.81 in 2002 to the election road back home after years 12.85 in the present elections. of unfulfilled promises.

Never before have the Valley's In Chadoora constituency of district


Chadoora, 73,021 (37,525M, 35,496F); Budgam, 87,028 (44,844M, 42 ,184F ) ; Beerwah, 83 ,856 (43,405M, 40,451F); Khan Sahib, 71,920 (37,807M, 34,113F): Chrar-E-Sharief, 68,089 (35,234M, 32,855F)

t is out and out triangular Icontest between NC, PDP and Peoples Democratic Forum. PDP got two seats in 2002 but this time it has rebel on three seats and is left wanting for suitable candidates on two seats. Legislative Council Chairman Ghulam Nabi Lone of PDP is contesting against Abdul Rahim Rather of NC who has been winning this seat since 1977. Lone had lost by 3700 votes in 2002 and since then his party has pumped in huge energy and resources in constituency. PDF emerged after 2002 elections; its leader Hakeem Mohammad Yaseen eyes one seat in district besides his own of Khan Sahib. His contest from two seats underlines the quantum of confidence.

2728

29 26

30

DISTRICT BADGAM


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

migrants contested in polls in so large a have passed through horrible times and

number as they have done this time, there is a trust deficit between the two

and ensuring their community's communities. We have to work hard so

“honourable” return from exile is their that the two can live as they have for

t o p p r i o r i t y. I r o n i c a l l y, t h e long,” he said.

participation is so overwhelming that

it is certainly going to mar winning Muju is one of dozens of Kashmiri prospects of any candidate from the Pandits in the election fray and the community but at least and at last the number is rising. Kashmiri Pandits are here to underline

their presence in the Valley's political No Pandit candidate figures on the list of landscape. the two prominent mainstream parties

— the National Conference and the “We want political space in Jammu and People's Democratic Party — announced Kashmir where we can fight for the so far, though. But that has not return of Kashmiri Pandits with demoralised the community. constitutional guarantees like minority

status. This was the main reason that Some Kashmiri Pandits have floated the forced me to fight this year's election,” National United Front (NUF) while said Gopi Kishen Muju, who teaches several others are fighting as clinical psychology at Government Independents. In Srinagar's Habba Kadal Medical College in Srinagar. constituency, there are as many as 11

Pandit candidates.Pandits comprise less than 4 per

cent of the Valley's population. “We are contesting 15 seats, all in the More than 250,000 Kashmiri Pandits Valley, because of our emotional had left their burning homes when attachment with that place. But this is militancy broke out in 1989, and not an all-Pandit affair and we want since then many leaders have votes from all the communities. In fact, pledged to pave the way for their we have given our mandate to two return. But all have turned out to Muslims,” said A.K. Diwani, who heads be empty promises. the NUF.

ne stalwart of Bhartiya Janta Muju's father, Pandit Dina Nath, had Party who is missing from the been killed by militants in June 1990. “I Opolitical scene even the party's had already migrated in March that year New Delhi headquarters is setting the after I received threats from some campaign theme in Kashmir Valley. The

people but my parents had stayed back. era of Atal Behari Vajpayee as Prime

When my father was killed, I could not Minister is being reminded to the people

in Valley, particularly in North Kashmir. come down for his cremation in Srinagar.

Strange enough, the Valley's poll skyline My mother came to live with us in also have some lotus flowers in the Jammu after my father's death.” saffron background.

Despite his personal tragedy, Muju The BJP, which led the Amarnath wants to bridge the gap between Hindus campaign pitting Hindus against Muslims and Muslims in Kashmir. “The Muslims


Tral, 73,944 (38,602M, 35,342F); Pampore, 68,898 (35,370M, 33 ,528F) ; Pulwama, 70,999 (36,631M, 34,368F): Rajpora, 79,118 (41,032M, 38,086F)

arring one constituency of BTral where Congress has a significant presence, Pulwama district is locked in a straight contest between NC and PDP. NC dominance of nearly decades was broken by a bang by PDP which won three out of four seats. Though NC has changed the faces but PDP appears to have further consolidated its position even though 2002 winners have been repeated. NC is hit by severe internal rebellion in this district. In Tral constituency Congress can expect a surprise as its 2002 nominee who has lost with a margin of 309 votes is again in the fray after having spent years among people. In that case Surinder Singh may be a lone Sikh winner from Valley.

DISTRICT PULWAMA

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32

33

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Kashmiri Pandits return to politics


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

in Jammu and Kashmir not long ago, The BJP had fielded about the same

appears to be eyeing a secular image number in the last Assembly elections,

now. The party has picked Muslim when it did not win any seat in Kashmir

candidates for 27 of the 65 seats it will and only one in Jammu. But in the bitter

contest in the state. And barring a few, Amarnath land campaign that the BJP

all Muslims have been fielded in the led this year, the party had taken a pro-

Valley. It is certainly a token contest but Hindu stand and also betrayed a bias

the BJP does not want to end here. Party against Kashmir vis-à-vis Jammu.

veteran and former Himachal Pradesh All that is past now and the BJP appears Chief Minister is already over with one to prefer Kashmiri Muslims to Pandits as round of campaigning in the Valley. “No candidates. Of the 46 seats in Kashmir, Prime Minister ever has taken bold steps the BJP is contesting 27. Six are Kashmir on Kashmir the way Atal Behari Vajpayee Pandits and rest all are Muslims as BJP's took. Through these elections we are candidates in the fray. reminding people of Vajpayee's peace

efforts”, says Kumar. “There is clearly a bias in favour of

Muslims and Kashmiri Pandits deserved a “We are contesting 65 seats and 27 couple of more tickets. But as a Kashmiri candidates are Muslims, and most of Pandit I won't mind it. They (BJP) are them have got tickets from Kashmir,” try ing to prove their secular BJP state general secretary Shamsher credentials,” said Veer Saraf, leader of Singh said. Roots in Kashmir, a Jammu-based

political group campaigning for the


Nobra, 11,863 (5,943M, 5,920F); Leh, 62,533 (31,680M, 30,853F)

he Himalayan enclave of Leh Tis one such area in J&K, where ideological rivals NC and BJP are together for an interest which is not theirs. Ladakh Union Territory Front (LUTF) is pitted against Congress in Leh and Nubra with tacit support of NC and BJP. While BJP has no significant base in area, NC's support is symbolic and shrewd –if LUTF wins seats may fall in NC kitty in government formation. LUTF candidate in 2002, Nawang Rigzin is Congress nominee for Leh and journalist-turned politician Tsewang Rigzin for Nubra. The campaign and scheme is skewed in LUTF favour in such a manner that Congress victory can be just miraculous. PDP and Panthers Party have fielded their candidates in Leh district first time.

47

48

DISTRICT LEH

ATAL IN KASHMIR With 27 candidates in Valley, BJP is seeking votes in name of Vajpayee

April 2003: Then Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee in Srinagar. He is still rememberedfor his visionary peace initiatives on Kashmir.


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

return of Pandits to the Kashmir Valley. Pahalgam, around 4,000 people

attended our rally.”

But a BJP leader who asked not to be

named said the Pandits had got a raw The party is planning to bring over senior

deal. “When the BJP issued the first list, central leaders, including Mukhtar

there was no Kashmiri Pandit but six Abbas Naqvi, to campaign.

men from my community were given

tickets after we pressed hard for it. We Kashmir has 72,000 Pandit voters out of a still feel betrayed,” he said. total of 34 lakh. But with the separatists

calling for a boycott of the polls, they can

BJP provincial president Sofi Muhammad play a decisive role in several seats if they

Yousuf said his party was secular with a come out to vote in large numbers.

national outlook and had taken more

pro-Kashmir steps than any other group.

“We are banking on Atal Bihari

Vajpayee's peace initiatives, which

helped improve the situation here. It

was the NDA government led by him

which started a dialogue with the

Hurriyat, and relations with Pakistan

also improved. It was also our initiative

to open the cross-LoC roads but other

parties are taking credit for that,” said

Sofi, who is contesting from Pahalgam.

“We have had roadshows and the biggest

rallies in different parts of the Valley. In


Kargil, 58,073 (28,830M, 29,243F); Zanskar, 20,044 (9,940M, 10,104F)

Two constituencies of the snow clad Himalayan district of Kargil are special among all constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir. Here the number of women voters is higher than the men but still no woman has ever been returned to assembly. NC and LUFT are in league in Kargil and the main contest is with independents. In 2002 NC and an independent had won one seat each. PDP and Panthers Party have fielded their candidates first time in Kargil.

DISTRICT KARGIL

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I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

Yes, it sounds ludicrous. Ideologically poles apart, three parties

–Peoples Democratic Party, National Conference and Bhartiya

Janta Party –are fighting Jammu and Kashmir elections on same

plank. True. These are the major parties which have drawn out a

common agenda. A look at the manifestos of almost all parties

shows an unusual stress on regional empowerment. The only

difference is that the parties like NC, PDP and others with their

Kashmir origin, even Congress, call for more powers from New

Delhi and then equal devolution to the regions. The BJP and other

parties of its hue have gone completely silent on so called 'special

status' of Jammu and Kashmir but their emphasis matches that of

PDP and Congress on devolution of powers to regions and sub-

regions. Besides other local issues, regional imbalance is a strong

factor in the present elections and the parties have drafted their

manifestos accordingly.

Election manifestos of parties in Jammu and Kashmir, except

National Conference, have always been drab and devoid of any

major policy indicators. Local issues like power, water and

employment etc are usually the agenda parties come up with

during elections. It was in 1996 elections that the National

Conference came up with a proposal to settle the Kashmir issue

through elections –Greater Autonomy. Separatists in Kashmir

though outrighly rejected and 'ultranationalist' in Jammu went to

set copies of autonomy manifesto ablaze but still this proposal

works well with a large majority as people believe that between

Azadi and full integration Autonomy sounds a doable proposal.

The Congress never uses the word 'Autonomy' but has never been

opposed to this agenda. Therefore, it is a matter of political

compulsion for the Peoples Democratic Party to come up with

something –something little less than Azadi –which goes beyond

Autonomy. While Self Rules is the election plank of the Peoples

Democratic Party and surprisingly BJP has gone silent on its

trademark slogan of 'abrogation of Article 370'. The agenda are all

about appeasing majority votes and the common line in manifestos

of all parties is empowerment of regions through the terminology

is different. Jammu based smaller regional parties like Panthers

Party and Jammu State Morcha have called for reorganization of

the state while Kashmir based parties have stressed autonomous

status of Jammu and Kashmir and underlines a need for all

inclusive dialogue to resolve Kashmir issue.


Doda, 72,847 (37,495M, 35,352F); Bhaderwah, 94,173 (47,970M 46,203F)

This hilly district has a nearly straight contest between Congress and National Conference. Bhaderwah is a matter of prestige for Congress as former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad who seeking re-election. He had won with by-election in 2006 with a record margin that too without campaigning even for a single day. But that does not mean there was no campaign. Entire Congress structure was engaged in Bhaderwah to create 'history'. NC has Mohammad Aslam Goni and the BJP has Daya Kishan Kotwal as strong contenders pitted against Azad. In Doda constituency contest is between Abdul Majid Wani of Congress and Khalid Najib Suhrawardy of National Conference.

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DISTRICT DODA

What is on agenda? Special status dominant buzzword, emphasis on regional balance


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

fter debates and controversies Aspanning over nearly three years,

the Peoples Democratic Party has

unveiled its 'Self Rule' manifesto on the

eve of elections. 'Utopian' as it has been

described by many but the proposal

cannot be brushed aside just for its

perceived 'separatist tendencies'

particularly if one recalls former

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's

disclosure that Indian diplomat JN Dixit

was first to discuss such a proposal in his

'official capacity' as a pointman of Indian

Government.

The self rule concept in context of indicative direction for resolution. We

Jammu and Kashmir was first coined by have tried to contextualise the issue at

then Pakistan President Pervez various levels and drawn the contours of

Musharraf in December 2005 and was a process for building sustainable peace

subsequently adopted by the Peoples in the State and the region. The essence

Democratic Party in January 2006, of this document lies in trying to suggest

though in a different form and a creative framework for resolution of

perspective. The party, however, could the issue without compromising the

not release the document for two and sovereignty of the two nation states

half years, apparently due to its running involved”.

trouble with the Congress when it was

part of the ruling coalition.

Broad contours of self rule The document starts with a word of

caution as it appeal for considering the Regional Council: The centrepiece of same with a rational and objective view the governance structure under self-and not with a parochial and rule is the cross border institution of chauvinistic approach. “The Peoples Regional Council of Greater Jammu and Democratic Party is not presenting a Kashmir. The Regional Council of solution; nor does it pretend to have Greater Jammu and Kashmir will one. Indeed, it is our belief that replace the existing Upper House of roadmaps prejudge the issue; state assembly, and will be a kind of a readymade solutions make the problem regional senate. Members of the a distorted image of what it actually is; Regional Council will be from J&K as and models make a mockery of well as from Pakistan administered specificity of the issue. As such, what we Kashmir. At present the state assembly have attempted in this document is an of J&K holds 20 seats for representatives internally consistent framework and from across the line of control. These


Kishtwar, 70,218 (35,896M, 34,322F); Inderwal, 73,500 (37,845M, 35,655F)

Bashir Ahmed Kichloo of National Conference won Kishtwar four times till 1996 and after his death it was son Sajjad who retained the seat in 2002. Sajjad Kichloo is again seeking election but the contest is not quite hands down as it has been for the Kichloo family at five occasions earlier. Syed Asghar Ali of Peoples Democratic Party is a strong candidate to face. Congress has fielded Jugal Bhandari but he is not likely to cut much ice. In Inderwal, Congress candidate Ghulam Mohammad Saroori is strongly pitted against Abdul Karim Wani of National Conference who made an unsuccessful bid earlier also.

DISTRICT KISHTWAR

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PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Self Rule for lasting Kashmir solution


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

will be given up and replaced by the document explains.

same number of seats in the Regional Constitutional Restructuring: The self Council of Greater Jammu and Kashmir. rule document has called for restoring This will serve as a major cross-border the nomenclature of the head of the institution, which will ensure long-term government and head of the state as it coordination of matters and interest existed before 1965 and also suggested relating to the state. roll back of all India service.

Economic Integration: As a measure of The document, therefore, explains economic integration on both sides of “Self-rule cannot exist without Line of Control, the PDP has suggested adequate constitutional safeguards. As establishment of a common economic the Constitutional position stands today, space and institution of dual currency Article 356, undermines the core of Self-system. “The process of economic rule and has to be made non-applicable integration of the two parts of Jammu to J&K. In a similar vein, Article 249, and Kashmir can start with the easiest applied to the State in amended form, form of economic integration, a should be rolled back so that the Preferential Trade Agreement”, says the Parliament cannot exercise legislative document. In the PTA the two countries, jurisdiction over a matter that, otherwise, India and Pakistan would offer tariff falls under the State jurisdiction. reductions, or eliminations confined to

the geographical boundaries of Sixth Amendment of the Constitution of

“Greater Jammu and Kashmir” and the State that undermines its original

restrict it to some product categories. scheme of a comprehensive and

Stage II would be to make GJAK a accountable executive (inclusive of the

regional free trade area, with no tariffs Head of the State) a critical component

or barriers between with GJAK, while of Self-rule, will have to be repealed.

maintaining their own external tariff on Prior to this amendment, the State

imports from the rest of the world, Legislature elected Sadar-e-Riyasat, the

including India and Pakistan. GJAK will head of the State.

set a common external tariff on imports

from India and Pakistan. The proviso, limiting the powers of State

Legislature, has been added to Article “Further, instead of looking for a

368, which deals with the powers of the monetary union, a new system of “Dual

Parliament to amend the Constitution of Currency” will be created, where the

India and not the power of State Indian and Pakistani rupees are both

Legislature to amend its own made legitimate legal tenders in the

Constitution. The proviso is, therefore, geographical areas of GJAK. A better

totally and grossly out of place and ultra description of this system is a “co-

vires the constitutional scheme. The circulation of two currencies” in J&K. It

State Legislature's constitutional power is being proposed that Indian and

of amendment is the core of Pakistani rupees should be the medium

empowerment or Self-rule of the State of exchange in J&K. To be more precise,

and this cannot be destroyed by an order it means, allowing circulation of the

passed under Article 370. All India Pakistani rupee in the Indian part of J&K

Service Act, 1951 and Article 312 be currency and circulation of Indian rupee

rolled back and the local human in the Pakistan administered Kashmir.

resources are provided clear and This has to be done if we want cross the

unhindered opportunity to develop their Line of control trade to flourish”, the

full potential and it is trusted to manage


Gulab Garh, 59,625 (30,948M, 28, 677F); Reasi, 97,080 (50,608M, 46,472F); Gool Arnas, 55,537 (29,097M, 26,440F)

This is one such district where Congress, BJP and National Conference have a significant base. Peoples Democratic Party too has made inroads in Ghulab Garh and Gool Arnas constituencies but there are no potential candidates. Ajaz Ahmed Khan of Congress is seeking re-election from Gool Arnas while his brother Mumtaz is an independent candidate in Gulab Garh. Both have straight contest with NC. In Reasi, the contest is triangular between BJP, NC and Congress. Jugal Kishore of Congress had won in 2002 and is apparently well placed this time also.

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I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

the affairs of the State”

escribing its manifesto as 'Vision DDocument ' , the Nat iona l

Conference has reiterated its demand of

Autonomy “as only viable solution of

Kashmir issue” but has declared at the

same time that the party is ready to

accept any other proposal acceptable to

the people. Interestingly, first time ever

the National Conference has laid a huge On sharing power with the peoples at emphasis on devolution of powers to the grassroots, the National Conference has regions and strengthening of Panchayati said that if returned to power, the first Raj. major task will holding elections to the

Panchayats. The Vision Document

Taking a cue from the PDP-Congress recalled with regrets, “the National

coalition government, the National Conference Government held elections

Conference has also laid emphasis on to the Panchayats in 2001. But the

good governance. “Good governance is Coalition Government after 2002 took

a primary requisite for overall no steps whatsoever to implement the

development. Good governance would Act in letter and spirit. Instead of

consist of responsive and people strengthening the Panchayati Raj

friendly mind set of the political system the Coalition Government made

workers and the civil servants, close repeated but unsuccessful attempts to

monitoring of implementation of dissolve the duly elected panchayats. In

programmes and policies of the a final, sinister attempt to subvert the

Government, the habitual use of Panchayat Raj , the Coa l i t ion

modern aids devised by Information Government introduced and passed a

Technology for improvement of Bill in the Legislature despite strong

efficiency and transparency, and opposition by the National Conference

curbing of misutilization of funds and Party. The Bill aimed at empowering the

effective check on corruption. In order government to dissolve duly elected

to energize the administration to Panchayats at its sweet will. This Bill

deliver the programmes of the was prevented from becoming Law by

Government to the people in a time the National Conference Party which

bound framework and in adequate convinced the Governor not to give his

measure, a mechanism shall be devised assent”.

for each department. This shall be

institutionalized, to take periodical The National Conference government reviews and undertake inspections in immediately after coming to power shall the field. The independence of the civil hold elections to all the Panchayats and service shall be respected and officers fully support them to discharge their shall be encouraged to perform their functions as envisaged in the Act. duties without fear or favour”, says the Similarly the Urban Local Bodies which manifesto. are elected and are functioning shall be

financially supported and also


Udhampur, 1,02,921 (53,945M, 48,976F); Chenani, 79,222 (41,917M, 37,305F); Ram Nagar, 99,309 (52,214M, 47,095F)

fter split of this district Ainto two, last year, its six constituencies were divided into three each between Udhampur and Reasi. Therefore, post-division Udhampur was left by all constituencies represented by Panthers Party. Rise of Panthers Party has been phenomenal –debutant one seat in 1996 and four in 2002. Since their ouster from these three segments two to three decades back NC and Congress are in complete organization disarray. BJP supporters are fuming at irrational ticket distribution. PP eventually has contest with an independent in Ramnagar and with both BJP and Congress in Chenani and Udhampur. Anti-incumbency, of course, is a factor against PP. Civic amenities and infrastructure is a major issue in Garrison town of Udhampur, the headquarters of Northern Command, where present MLA has been to do

DISTRICT UDHAMPUR

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NATIONAL CONFERENCE

Ready To Look Beyond Autonomy


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

encouraged to raise their own resources The document said if elected to power

and reduce their dependence on the in the state, the NC will try to convince

government. In respect of Jammu and those who have taken recourse to

Srinagar cities which have elected violence and intimidation as means to

Municipal Corporations the scope and achieve their goal, that the lessons of

jurisdiction of the existing District history are very clear that all social,

Development Boards shall be reviewed political discords are resolved

to eliminate the possibility of ultimately by discourse and dialogue.

overlapping of authority for plan

formulation and implementation. The vision document, which was

released by the NC patron Dr Farooq

NC also promised to attract private Abdullah, his son and party president

sector investment in every field, Omar Abdullah in the presence of senior

rehabilitation of militancy affected leaders, without naming separatists said

people, zero tolerance in Human Rights all parties in the state, must accept the

(HR) violations, war against corruption, reality that the solution to the Kashmir

employment to unemployed youths in problem can be found only through sustained

government jobs and private sectors, dialogue between all stake holders.

improvement in power sector and

industrial development. It said the NC will hold elections to all

panchayats and fully support them to

discharge their functions as

envisaged in the Act.

on't look at terminologies of Dt h e ' S e l f R u l e ' a n d

'Autonomy', the Congress manifesto

takes you right there where Peoples

Democratic Party and National

Conference begin to talk about

'more empowerment' of Jammu and

Kashmir as a road map for resolving

the Kashmir issue. The very first

point in Congress manifesto says:

“The Congress remains fully

committed to comprehensive

devolution of powers to Jammu and

Kashmir State so that the people of

the state would be free to realize

their full potential. To this end, the

Congress will strive to work with all

d e m o c r a t i c f o r c e s ” .

Comprehensive devolution of


Bani, 37,197 (19,354M, 17,843F); Basohli, 67,391 (35,234M, 32,157F); Kathua, 1,10,542 (58,437M, 52,105F); Billawar, 88,148 (46,274M, 41,874F); Hiranagar, 99,469 (51,002M, 48,467F)

Kathua is only district in entire Jammu province where Congress is better placed among all parties. But this time equation is not all the same. The number of rebels is almost matching the official nominees. Party had won three of the five constituencies in 2002. Two other winners –both independents –later joined Congress as associate members. One of the associate members –Manohar Lal –has been given ticket in Billawar provoking two rebels from party to join fray. In Kathua party has fielded sitting MP Lal Singh (his wife is contesting from Basohli) but here the associate member –Babu Singh –has rebelled to joined fray.

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DISTRICT KATHUA

CONGRESS

To Rewrite Constitution For Empowering Regions

MANIFESTO OFPEACE, DIGNITY AND HOPE

FOR ELECTION TO THE

JAMMU & KASHMIRLEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY

2008

Jammu & KashmirPradesh Congress Committee


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

powers to Jammu and Kashmir is what block level councils to ensure effective

National Conference asks for in its participation of people in the

Autonomy manifesto. On making democratic system. This constitutional borders soft, rather irrelevant, the mechanism will guarantee the unity and Congress appears to have touched up integrity of regions and the state. the PDP manifesto as it calls for blurring

of boundaries between two parts of The party has expressed faith that all

Jammu and Kashmir, making trans-LoC the issues and disputes could be

trade and travel completely hassle free resolved through dialogue. The party

affairs and opening at least five more has promised to “restructure the

LoC links for people-to-people contacts. Constitution of the state into a federal

set-up by setting up separate regional On regional balance, which is the councils for Jammu and Kashmir.”dominant buzzword in present

elections, the Congress has promised T h i s c o u l d b e f u r t h e r e d b y going to the extent rewriting the state “decentralization and devolution of constitution for making constitution powers to district and block level councils empowerment of each region in the to ensure effective participation of state. Therefore, the manifesto says: people in the democratic system.” When elected to power, Congress will

restructure constitution of the State Besides, the party has laid emphasis on into a federal setup by creating separate setting up a delimitation commission to regional councils for Jammu and restructure the legislative assembly Kashmir and further decentralization constituencies. The manifesto also and devolution of powers to district and speaks of consolidating the Panchayati

Raj system. the hands of Jammu and Kashmir's

dominantly Muslim rulers. n essentially drab document, the

BJP manifesto does not reflect Aintellectual prowess its 'thinking But it made no mention of article luminaries' like Arun Jaitly who is party's 370 that entitles Jammu and Kashmir in-charge of Jammu and Kashmir affairs. to have its own citizenship laws, Otherwise, the party's trademark forbids non-permanent residents penchant for abrogation of Article 370 from buying immovable assets, would not have been missing from the ga in ing jobs or admiss ion in man i fe s to wh i ch t a l k s abou t professional institutions. The BJP empowerment of regions with Jammu as has for decades campaigned against epicenter of power. article 370, saying only its abolition

would firmly tie Jammu and Kashmir

to the rest of India.The document makes no mention of

Article 370 of the Indian constitution

that grants special status to the In the manifesto, the BJP promised to do state. The 16-point manifesto focuses away with regional imbalances in the mostly on the alleged discrimination state, appoint provincial councils and of Hindu-majority Jammu region at grant citizenship rights to refugees from

BJP

Making Jammu Epicenter Of Power


Samba, 74,863 (37,861M, 37,002F); Vijaypur, 98,066 (48,366M, 49,700F)

Anyone who wins from either of two constituencies in Samba district will be actually like winning a lottery ticket. The reserved constituency of Samba (for Scheduled Castes) and neighbouring Vijaypur make Samba district epicenter of Dalit politics. Major hopes of BSP and its breakaway National Bahujan Party are here only. NC, Congress, BJP and Panthers Party –none of them can be undermined. PDP too has a strong contest in Vijaypur segment where its Manjit Singh had won in 2002 on BJP ticket and later joined PDP and remained a Minister till fall of Azad government.

DISTRICT SAMBA

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COVER STORY

otwithstanding iconic Independent candidates. However,

presence of leaders like after 1972, it has been downhill for

Mehbooba Mufti and new women as their numbers only declined.

symbols of women voice Nlike Shabnam Ghani Lone, Kashmiri women are not just stepping parties have been cold to the women in out to vote in the ongoing elections, but giving a fair representation to contest to get voted into office. This is the first assembly elections but the fair sex is time that a sizeable number of female breaking barriers. As a large number of candidates are standing for election, the fairer sex contests the Assembly defying stereotype. Traditionally, the elections in Jammu and Kashmir this woman in Jammu and Kashmir are time, people are waiting to see if a 36- perceived to be housebound. But the year-old record for the highest number new wave of wannabe women of women in the Assembly will be legislators have very personal reasons broken. for entering the political arena.

It was in 1972 that four women were For Shabnum Ghani Lone, daughter of elected to the legislature, which still the slain separatist leader Abdul Ghani remains the highest figure for women Lone, it was the people's will. "They MLAs in the state. Zainab Begum, Hajra want their miseries to end," says Lone, Begum, Shanta Bharti and Nirmala Devi who is contesting as an independent made it to the Assembly then while four candidate from Kupwara constituency. other female contestants -- Khem Lata

Wakhloo, Amina Begum, Hassan Ara Social worker Seher Iqbal, who is

Begum and Misra Bano -- lost their contesting on a PDP ticket from

security deposits after getting very few Kokarnag constituency in south Kashmir,

votes. All women were elected on says her candidature is an attempt to

Congress tickets. help solve the Valley's problems. Iqbal

helped with rehabilitation work after This year a large number of women, the Uri earthquake in 2005. She says, more than 30, are in the fray in the state "conflicting situations need creative and it remains to be seen whether the solutions" and her way of arriving at a 36-year-old record will be broken or solution would be to "give priority to they will have to wait for the next developmental work." AT 27, she is the elections. youngest woman in the fray in J&K ever

who will face the ballot on December

As many as 10 women candidates are in 17.

the fray in the first three phases of

elections and a large number are There are different reasons driving expected to contest in the remaining young mother Gowsia Bashir, to seek the phases. While some political observers people's mandate. Bashir wants to say the boycott of polls by National highlight excesses against women in Conference in the last polls helped the Kashmir. "I will expose the exploiters of Congress candidates across the state to women once I am elected an MLA. There win, others negate this claim on the is a need to protect Kashmiri women," ground that most National Conference insists the outspoken woman, who has leaders took part in elections as


Nagrota, 64,230 (33,230M, 31,000F); Gandhi Nagar, 1,52,100 (78,663M, 73,437F); Jammu East, 55,062 (28,196M, 26,866F); Jammu West, 1,45,549 (74,383M, 71,166F); Bishnah, 83,936 (42,328M, 41,608F); R.S. Pura, 75,646 (38,504M, 37,142F); Suchetgarh, 58,238 (28,691M, 29,547F); Marh, 66,313 (33,751M, 32,562F); Raipur Domana 90,520 (46,348M, 44,172F); Akhnoor, 83,296 (41,655M, 41,641F); Chhamb, 68,499 (32,796M, 35,703F)

efore its division, Jammu had B13 constituencies and Congress won 8 in 2002; one each went to BJP, Panthers Party, NC, BSP and an independent. BJP used the Amarnath land row to its full to gain the ground; it did gain but the effect appears fizzling out as polling date comes closer. The Hindutva vote stands divides between BJP and its 'like-minded parties'. Ability of Congress to repeat 2002 success cannot be undermined even as NC and BSP are two other active players. This imminent division of BJP vote bank is a sure advantage of Congress. Success in this district holds key to the survival of both BJP and Congress. Contrary to expectations, Amarnath Sangharsh Samiti is not playing any active role in campaign.

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DISTRICT JAMMU

Defying The Sterotypes


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

contested from Bandipora constituency. But it is not just Kashmir that is seeing

more women candidates than before.

Jammu has several as well. Tabassum Though each of them marches to a Bano is contesting from Poonch-Haveli different drummer, all these aspiring Assembly constituency as the J&K women politicians are united in their National Panthers Party candidate; her freedom from fear of defeat. Lawyer opponent is Sarita Sharma of the Shameema Firdaus is a case in point. She Bhartiya Chaitanya Party. But J&K is lost the last time she contested from about as far as female participation in Habba Kadal constituency but this time politics goes. There are no women she is confident "people will vote for me candidates in pristine Ladakh's four as the previous MLA deceived them" constituencies. Firdaus is a NC nominee.


Surankote, 84,969 (43,442M, 41 ,527F ) ; Mendhar , 77 ,853 (39,023M, 38,830F); Poonch-Haveli, 96,758 (49,642M, 47,116F)

aste factor between Gujjars Cand Paharis is loaded heavily in this district. Eleven Pahari candidates are pitted against one Gujjar (Javed Rana of NC) in Mendhar but towards end of campaign non-Gujjar saw consolidation in favour of PDP's Rafiq Khan. Contest is neck to neck. Congress handpicked a Gujjar from NC for Poonch seat but backfired by consolidation of non-Gujjar vote towards NC nominee. In Surankote RS MP and former state Congress president Choudhary Aslam is pitted against Mushtaq Bukhari of NC who earlier won twice. Bukhari's cousin is a PDP nominee and may eventually help Aslam regain constituency after two decades. All parties and candidates are playing the dangerous caste factor well development issues are though being talked about by electors.

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DISTRICT POONCH

Social activists Sehar Iqbal is PDP nominee from Kokernag constituency in South Kashmir.Social activists Sehar Iqbal is PDP nominee from Kokernag constituency in South Kashmir.


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

midst anti-poll campaign Not only Kupwara constituency, a

and call of social boycott of significantly major part of Kupwara

those contesting assembly district in North Kashmir draws an

elections, the separatist influence from ideology of slain Hurriyat Apolit ical spectrum in leader Abdullah Gani Lone. A moderate

Kashmir finally has a genuine contest face and ready with imaginative ideas

'within' which underlines that elections on Kashmir, Lone was shot dead by

for forming a government and the vexed unidentified militants in May 2002, the

'Kashmir issue' are two different day then Prime Minister Atal Behari

processes altogether. Vajpayee reached J&K on a two-day

tour. As Vajpayee had come with his

proposal of resolving Kashmir issue Separatist 'stalwart' Sajjad Lone and his

under the 'ambit of humanity' (breaking brother Bilal Lone of the Peoples

far from clichéd four wall of Conference (founded by their father

constitution), it was widely expected Abdul Ghani Lone) are out on a well

that Lone may meet the Prime Minister drawn up anti-poll campaign in Kashmir.

to give a new shape to the dialogue They don't have the well explained and

process but this initiative was cut short cogent reasons for opposing polls but

by mysterious bullets that afternoon. their bottomline is that elections have

to be opposed because they don't lead

towards resolution of Kashmir. This may Six years down the line, the Lone

true in that context but after all brothers have tried to do well keeping

government are also required for his name alive, but it is their sister

running day to day affairs of the public which appears to have donned mettle of

life which, of course, cannot be held the father and represent his people.

hostage to the issue which has been Shabnam says, "I have been forced by

lingering on for six decades. the supporters and followers of my

father to represent them where exactly

they need someone to speak for them". Closer to home and much closer to

She admits that Kashmir issue can't be heart, the sister of Lone brothers,

resolved through elections but firmly Shabnam Lone has filed her nomination

believes that elections are important papers as an independent candidate

democratic exercise of empowering from Kupwara constituency which goes

people. Observers believe Shabnam to polls in third phase of elections on

would not have been the lone aspirant November 30. Shabnam's participation

to represent people had her father is an election is not a token presence

Abdul Ghani Lone been alive. and apparently not at all any ploy which

may be difficult to understand. "I am

serious and my people are much serious The Kupwara is the north district of

about it", says the Supreme Court lawyer Kashmir valley which is going to polls for

Lone who has left the separatists in five seats of Karnah, Kupwara, Lolab,

Kashmir surprised. Shabnam challenges Handwara and Langate on November 30,

Mir Saifullah of National Conference 2008. The Kupwara district is having

who has represented Kupwara twice 341946 electors and a total of 448

since 1996. polling booths are being set up across


Nowshera, 84,657 (43,406M, 41,251F); Darhal, 88,186 (45,488M, 42,698F); Rajouri, 105271 (54,323M, 50 ,948F) ; Kalakote , 75 ,343 (39,312M, 36,031F)

n three of four constituencies Iof this caste-sensitive district, there should have been a triangular contest between NC, Congress and PDP but an unexpected storm by deserters has changed entire scheme of things. Now it is neither between any party or any caste. Contest is about merits; individual winning prospects, credibility and reputation of contests. Congress has a strong rebel in Ashok Sharma in Kalakote, Qamar Hussain in Rajouri and Iqbal Malik in Darhal. Choudhary Talib Hussain is NC rebel and MS Tariq PDP rebel in Rajouri. NC and Congress face straight contest in Nowshera. NC had won three seats in 2002; this time tally is not likely to go beyond one.

DISTRICT RAJOURI

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The ‘Lone’ Challenger


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the north Kashmir district of Kupwara. Elections in Kupwara district are up for

an interestingly battle as the 2002

element of proxy is missing. In 2002, the According to official figures Kupwara

Peoples Conference of Sajjad Lone had Assembly segment leads the district

fielded and supported proxy candidates with the largest electorate of 90,805

i n K u p w a r a a n d H a n d w a r a which includes 47,131 male and 43,674

constituencies. Sofi Ghulam Mohiuddin, female voters.

a staunch follower of Lone, won from

Handwara defeating NC stalwart "Shabnam has a chance to win in Chowdhary Mohammad Ramzan. This Kupwara constituency as her father has time the Lone brothers are leading an done a lot for the area" said Advocate anti-election campaign. Not it has to be Bushan Lal Pandita, a Kashmiri Pandit, seen as how democracy responds to call who originally belongs to the same of brothers and sister. district and now resides in Jammu.

2 Constituencies Total Vote Count: 1,39,475

Wachi, 68,388 (35,262M, 33,126F); Shopian, 71,087 (37,040M, 34,047F)

Mehbooba Mufti is seeking election from Wachi which Mohammad Khalil Naik of CPI(M) represented in 2002. Her decision to contest from Wachi speaks of overconfidence as Muftis have never moved out of Anantnag-Bijbehara-Pahalgam triangle. There are at least 20 other candidates and most of them independents. Shopian was represented by PDP's Ghulam Hassan Khan in 2002 but this time he has been denied ticket as last year he was named in the infamous Srinagar sex scandal. He has, however, jumped into fray as an independent candidate. National Conference has fielded Showkat Hussain Ganai in Wachhi and Shabir Ahmad Kullay in Shopian. Both are new faces.

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DISTRICT SHOPIAN

Our previous issue on J&K Elections


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY


Noorabad, 61, 136 (32,263M, 28,873F); Kulgam, 80,793 (41,826M, 38,967F); Home Shalibug, 65,657 (33,668M, 31,989F); Devsar, 76,147 (39,692M, 36,455F)

Except Kulgam proper seat, this district has significant stronghold of the PDP. Mohammad Yusuf Tarigami of CPI(M) represented Kulgam twice since 1996 and is now seeking election for third time. Congress and NC have gone soft against him but PDP is posing a tough challenge. If Abdul Aziz Zargar is able to recapture Noorabad constituency, this will be a history of sorts. Zargar is one of the only three living signatories of the J&K constituent assembly. Two others –Comrade KD Sethi and Ram Piara Saraf –are leading a retired life while Zargar is still active in public life.

DISTRICT KULGAM

41

39

38

37

mar's chief polling agent has declared the results even

before votes are counted. He says 'Omar has won' and for Othat he has extended thanks to the people of Ganderbal. A

lackluster performance of Omar rival Qazi Afzal of PDP who

remained embroiled in controversies during five years as Minister is

still not enough a ticket for Omar's entry to legislative assembly and

restoration of constituency to the family.

GANDERBAL

zad remained in national politics for over 30 years but never won any election from the home state till by-election to assembly in A2006 came his way. He wanted to create history. No campaigning;

not even a visit to constituency. Azad won by a huge margin. This time he has a campaign schedule drawn out. NC has fielded former Advocate General Aslam Goni who is giving a tough contest. BJP's Daya Kishan Kotwal too is strength to reckon with. No candidate in last 46 years has won twice from here. Azad will have to break this jinx.

BHADARWAH

fter he went nearly missing in action in 2002, Farooq

Abdullah is this time contesting election for himself and Ahas been declared as party's Chief Ministerial candidate.

Hazratbal is an NC turf held by straight since 1952. PDP and ANC

are giving sleepless nights to NC.

HAZRATBAL

hotbed of Amarnath land agitation, this constituency has

BJP's Chaman Lal Gupta, a former Union Minister and ACongress' Mangat Ram Sharma, a former Deputy Chief

Minister of state locked in a tough contest. Mangat had won in 2002

when BJP had no strong candidate. Jammu State Morcha is a

potential entity to cut votes of BJP this time.

JAMMU WEST

DP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed is seeking election from

his home district constituency against Dr Mehboob Baig of PNational Conference. Baig won here in 2002 and earlier in

1983 and it was his illustrious father Mirza Afzal Baig who had

wrested Anantnag in 1977. It is Mufti's overconfidence which brings

him to Anantnag.

ANANTNAG


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY


Anantnag, 75,000 (38,325M, 36,675F); Dooru, 61,824 (32,132M, 29,692F); Kokernag, 69,604 (36,619M, 32,985F); Shangus, 70,159 (36,489M, 33,670F); Bijbehara, 75,518 (38 ,384M, 37 ,134F) ; Pahalgam, 68,429 (35,300M, 33,129F)

PDP nearly wiped out NC in Anantnag in 2002. The only solace for NC was Anantnag proper seat which Dr Mehbooba Beg won. But this time he has been challenged by PDP patron and former Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed. Contest is tough. Kokernag was won by Peerzada Mohammad Sayeed of Congress who was earlier this year eased out of Ghulam Nabi Azad cabinet on corruption charges. This time he has been challenged by a political novice of PDP –Sehar Iqbal, a social worker and daughter of a top J&K bureaucrat. This district has a significant population of Gujjars –the community PDP made all possible efforts to woo since 2002.

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DISTRICT ANANTNAG

WACHI

SOPORE

KUPWARA

JAMMU EAST

NAGROTA

his constituency in newly created Shopian district has been

held by National Conference from 1977 to 1996. Mohammad TKhalil Naik of CPI(M) won in 2002 by wafer thin margin of 40

votes and perhaps this what has attracted PDP president Mehbooba

Mufti to take on him this time.

his is home constituency of Syed Ali Shah Geelani, the pro-Pakistan separatist hardliner. He won from here as Jamat-e-TIslami candidates in 1972, 77 and 1987 before he launched he

launched a campaign for Azadi. NC stalwart Abdul Ahad Vakil won in 1996 and lost to Abdul Rashid of Congress in 2002. Geelani's influence still reigns supreme and only 8.9 per cent votes were polled last time. Former MP and former state Congress president Ghulam Rasool Kar has revolted against part and is an independent candidate among 23 others.

except two exceptions, Kupwara has been with National

Conference since 1957. Its candidate Mir Saifullah is seeking Aelection for third time. Election in this segment is most

interesting scene anywhere in the Valley. Shabnam Lone, the daughter of

Hurriyat leader Abdul Ghani Lone and sister of Sajjad and Bilal Lone of

Peoples Conference is seeking election. Sajjad and Bilal's anti-election

campaign failed to influence their sister and electorate of Kupwara.

JP's state president Ashok Khajuria is contesting against a

Congress dummy Narinder Singh, former Mayor of City. BKhajuria won here in 1996 and lost in 2002. This time he is in

strong position –courtesy Amarnath land row but still it is not an

easy going for him. There are at least three other candidates

equally banking on vote bank which makes Khajuria confident.

cion of Dogra dynasty and son of former Sadre-e-Reyasat, Ajat

Shatru Singh is NC candidate from this constituency on Soutskirts of Jammu City. Congress has fielded a Gujjar

candidate in view of significant Muslim population here. Both have

strong rebels from their own parties in the constituency which BJP

wrested from Ajat Shatru in 2002 by 67 votes. Nagrota is unique in

not repeating any candidate since creation of this constituency.


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

4 is the magic number a multitude of factors specific to

required in the House of 87 to individual constituencies and individual

form government in Jammu districts. No party is seen having a

a n d K a s h m i r. A s t h e dominant wave even in any single region 4electioneering heats up, despite the fact the regional divides in

parties open their cards and people Jammu and Kashmir too are deep. A

break silence on their day, it appears team of Epilogue comprising staffers

that no party is likely to reach anywhere and over two dozen volunteers traveled

closer to the magic number. At a closer across different parts of state between

look of public mood, the planks on which October 30 and November 27 to gauge

elections are being fought and a host of the public mood. At an average of 20 to

other reasons including insurmountable 25 respondents per constituency, a total

rebellion in almost all parties one can of 1914 people were spoken to in all 87

cautiously conclude that highest tally of segments to elicit their views on winning

any party is likely to be around just a prospects of parties and candidates.

little halfway the magic number. An The verdict again appears to be divided.

essential ingredient of electioneering, It is not overwhelmingly in favour of any

in their public meetings all parties, party or against the other as the mood

including Panthers Party, BJP and BSP, varies from case to case and place to

are claiming that they are poised to place.

form the next government. However, if

reliable insiders are to be believed, in In Kashmir Valley there are similarities their private meetings no party is able to and dissimilarities in views as one peg its tally above 30. This is what travels from South to North. Ever ready Epilogue team also concludes from a to rend a slogan for Azadi, the men and statewide survey. The one which gets women, the young and old all have an something between 25 to 30 seats is appetite for mainstream politics. They likely to be the largest party on floor of don't find anything in manifestos of next legislative assembly but no political parties which can actually guarantee of forming government. change destiny of Kashmir. Still Independents and smaller parties are enthusiasm is high. It reflects upon the likely to emerge as key players in local issues and local loyalties with government formation. Indications are contesting candidates. A surprisingly clear for a Hung House and Congress in h i gh number o f i ndependen t any case is likely to be a part of the candidates, mushrooming small and ruling formation after results are out. newer parties and landing of local Peoples Democratic Party and National candidates of national political parties Conference joining hands to form have made the election in many government in Jammu and Kashmir can constituencies of Kashmir Valley more or be nothing less than BJP and Congress less like a lottery ticket. Who wins or striking an alliance at New Delhi or who is in a winning position is not known Osama bin Laden and George Bush to even the one who may actually win on launching a joint war against global December 28 when the votes are terrorism. counted.

Usually the pre-election waves set In 2002 the National Conference had trends for position of parties. This time emerged largest party in Kashmir there are no sweeping waves. There are

2 Constituencies Vote Count :

Ramban, 77,400 (40,287M, 37,113F); Banihal, 70,483 (36,998M, 33,485F)

Ramban constituency is reserved for Scheduled Castes while the neighbouring Banihal always witnesses a unique contest –between urban and rural aspirants. Well, there are no urban areas in Banihal except a small township on Jammu-Srinagar National Highway but people don't prefer candidates who permanently or temporarily reside in this township. It was this reason which saw Maulvi Abdul Rashid winning as a NC rebel in 2002 against party's official nominee. Maulvi later joined Congress but has been denied ticket. Congress has fielded a quite youngster who lives in the township. PDP is also facing rebellion. In Ramban it is a contest between BJP and NC

DISTRICT RAMBAN

56 55

Headed for Hung Assembly


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

A team of Epilogue comprising staffers and over two dozen

volunteers traveled across different

parts of state between October

30 and November 27 to gauge the

public mood. At an average of 20 to 25

respondents per constituency, a total of 1914 people were

spoken to in all 87 segments to elicit

their views on winning prospects of

parties and candidates. The

verdict again appears to be

divided. It is not overwhelmingly in favour of any party or against the other

as the mood varies from case to case

and place to place.

87Expected 2008

NC 24 to 26

PDP 20 to 22

Congress18 to 20

BJP 04 to 06

Others* 15 to 19

2002 tally

28

16

20

1

22

*Panthers Party, Bahujan Samaj Party,

Peoples Democratic Party Front (S),

Democratic Party (N), Awami National

Conference, Ladakh Union Territory Front,

Independents, CPI(M) & Other Smaller

Parties


I N F O C U S

COVER STORY

winning 18 seats. Despite anti- standing against Baig could have been had won 15 seats in Jammu region in

incumbency factor and the devastating just like a ceremonial contest. Now 2002 and later six independents joined

Amarnath land low, the NC tally is Mufti gets in tough contest with Beig the party as associate members. Four of

apparently not poised for any surprise and may even win. Mehbooba has them have been given party tickets. Put

up. With loss of a couple of more seats in moved out of Anantnag district and is together, the party may not be in a

North Kashmir and a gain of two to four seeking elect ion from Wachi, position to repeat its 2002 tally as losses

seats in Central and South Kashmir, the represented by Khalil Naik of CPI(M). at four to five constituencies are quite

NC tally is likely to hover around 20 to 22 Naik is a thorough gentleman devoted to visible at the hands of rebels joining the

seats in the Valley. Though in a bid to his people but Mehbooba's charisma is fray as independents. It had won five

undo mistakes of 2002, the NC fielded likely to have an easy going in Wachi. seats in the Valley last time and securing

31 in new faces out of 46 seats in the PDP had won 16 seats in the Valley and half of this tally in present elections will

Valley but this has backfired. Its sulking its tally is expected to move upwards by not be less than a surprise.

aspirants either jumped into the PDP around four seats this time. It has been

bandwagon or have joined fray as able to make inroads in Srinagar City If BJP were in a position to consolidate independent candidates. NC is which has long been a traditional its 'gains' of Amarnath agitation, the expected to retain its one seat in Kargil bastion of the National Conference. In party could have been able to take and reap dividends of its tacit support to Jammu region, PDP may open its home around 10 to 12 seats. Probably to the Ladakh Union Terriroty Front in Leh account by one to two seats even as keep its image at the national level, the but again in Jammu region prospects are party has a serious contest at six of the party did not enter to into a seat sharing not quite bright. In Jammu, NC had 37 seats in the region. arrangements with leaders of agitation secured nine seats in 2002 but this time and preferred to go it alone. Now most scenario is not promising; strong Congress has been a lone sufferer of its of the parties and leaders, in their rebellion at two seats and fallout of own making – the communal ly individual capacities, who toiled for Amarnath land row communalism at surcharged Amarnath land row. But still two months to keep Jammu burning two more may bring the tally down even there are no major reasons for during land agitation, are in the fray as it may recapture one seat in Doda disappointment. The parties Congress against each other. Amidst such huge which the party lost in 2002. should have been worried about have division of votes, if BJP is able to secure

actually come of a help to it. Main four to five seats it will be a big victory

Peoples Democratic Party appears to influence and emphasis of Congress is in ever.

have done a sort of engineering and an Jammu region and it has very little to

astute strategic planning in handling its catch in the Valley. And it was in Jammu Bahujan Samaj Party is contesting on election exercise. Its Self Rule proposal that BJP and other Hindutva parties more than 60 seats and so is Panthers though does well to cut the separatist pushed the Congress to wall during Party. Both parties could have won half sentiment in Kashmir but, after all, Amarnath land row. At one point of time a dozen seats each had they slogans are not enough to catch votes. It (during Amarnath agitation) it appeared concentrated on not more than twice as needs planning. The ticket distribution that Congress is about to get wiped out m a n y c o n s t i t u e n c i e s . T h e i r in PDP has been done in a manner that it but the strength its opponents gathered participation on more than two-thirds has taken opponents by surprise. For eventually turned into their weakness. of total seats in Jammu and Kashmir example, Pahalgam is a safe bet for PDP Most of the parties which spearheaded may certainly bring them a significant but the father or daughter –Mufti or agitation are now contesting separately voter share but not exactly the seats. Mehbooba –are not contesting on this –BJP, Jammu State Morcha, Shiv Sena

home turf. Instead they have fielded a etc. This is a sure division of votes which Other keen players in Kashmir Valley are

former NC MLA who joined PDP a couple otherwise had to go against the Peoples Democratic Front of Hakeem

of years back and was subsequently Congress. Adding to this division are Mohammad Yaseen, Democratic Party of

nominated to the Legislative Council. Panthers Party and Bahujan Samaj Party Ghulam Hassan Mir, Awami National

Mufti himself has taken on NC who may not pocket much seats but Conference of GM Shah, CPI(M) and

strongman Dr Mehbooba Beig in have the built up capacity of taking some potentially strong independent

Anantnag. For any other PDP candidate away a significant vote share. Congress candidates.

epilogue magazine, december 2008

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