epic research special report of 22 feb 2016
TRANSCRIPT
DAILY REPORT 22
nd FEB. 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
Global markets at a glance
Wall Street ended little changed on Friday, as Applied Ma-terials helped lift the tech sector and offset a renewed drop in oil prices, with major indexes capping their best week of the year. The Nasdaq rose, helped by a 7 percent jump in Applied Materials shares after the chip equipment provider gave a strong profit and revenue forecast for the current quarter. Buoyed by big gains on Tuesday and Wednesday, the major indexes posted their best weekly performances this year, with the Nasdaq tallying its strongest week since July. The S&P 500 remains down 6.2 percent this year, however, hurt by oil's prolonged slide and fears of China-led slowdown in the global economy.
European shares turned lower on Friday, hit by a drop in bank, oil and auto shares, as investors locked in gains fol-lowing a strong week that has helped to stabilise markets after a tumultuous start to the year. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down 0.7 percent at 1,285.07 points at the close, but still gained 4.3 percent since Monday, posting its best week since October 2015. The index had been buoyed by gains in bank and energy stocks this week after a tough start to the year, but those sectors saw profit-taking on Friday.
Previous day Roundup
It was a consolidation session for the market on Friday but the week was strong as equity benchmarks saw biggest weekly gains in 2016 on short covering and globally rally & oil recovery. The market gained for third consecutive ses-sion with the Sensex rising 59.93 pts to 23709.15. The Nifty closed above 7200 level, up 19 pts to 7210.75, supported by technology & oil and select banks & auto stocks. Experts say the market may continue to consolidate in near term, though rally may be seen in long term. For the week, the Sensex and Nifty rallied 3% each, the biggest weekly upside in current calendar year and also the biggest since October 2015. The broader markets underperformed benchmarks today with the BSE Midcap down 0.12% and Smallcap rising 0.16%. The market breadth was positive as about 1303 shares advanced against 1198 advancing shares on the BSE.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial indices performed as follow; Consumer Durables [up 5.63pts], Capital Goods [down 18.75Pts], PSU [down 7.79pts], FMCG [up 9.15Pts], Realty [up 1.03pts], Power [up 6.86pts], Auto [up 143.07Pts], Healthcare [down 2.04Pts], IT [up 42.70pts], Metals [up 5.39Pts], TECK [up 31.91pts], Oil& Gas [down 85.62pts].
World Indices
Index Value % Change
D J l 16391.99 -0.13
S&P 500 1917.78 +0.00
NASDAQ 4504.43 +0.38
FTSE 100 5950.23 -0.36
Nikkei 225 15967.17 -1.42
Hong Kong 19285.50 -0.40
Top Gainers
Company CMP Change % Chg
PNB 75.95 3.50 4.83
HEROMOTOCO 2,705.00 87.25 3.33
SBIN 164.95 5.15 3.22
BOSCHLTD 16,890.00 509.60 3.11
ASIANPAINT 856.80 21.55 2.58
Top Losers
Company CMP Change % Chg
BPCL 764.35 25.40 -3.22
MARUTI 3,560.00 93.25 -2.55
VEDL 74.35 1.50 -1.98
BHEL 101.70 2.00 -1.93
COALINDIA 312.20 5.40 -1.70
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
- -
Indian Indices
Company CMP Change % Chg
NIFTY 7210.75 +19.00 +0.26
SENSEX 23709.15 +59.93 +0.25
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
HDFC 1,059.65 -9.45 -0.88
HINDCOPPER 44.70 1.10 2.52
SOBHA 242.15 -1.35 -0.55
STCINDIA 98.00 -4.05 -3.97
SUVEN 145.40 -8.90 -5.77
TRITURBINE 92.10 -2.40 -2.54
BHEL 101.70 -2.00 -1.93
DAILY REPORT 22
nd FEB. 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
3. SUVEN
Suven is too weak stock on daily chart it made new 52 week low now it don't have any support up to 135 so it will be good to sell below 144 for target of 141 138 135 with strict stop loss of 147
MACRO NEWS
TataSteel talks to sell European long pdts biz for Rs 3K cr
L&T bags international orders worth Rs 1,404 cr
No tax, regulatory issue since filing RHP, clarifies Team-Lease
Suven Life gets patent for neuro-degenerative drug
Etihad stake hike may add $300-400mn to Jet kitty by Mar'16: CAPA
Maruti Suzuki Co Says Due To Agitation In Rohtak, Sup-plies Of Certain Components Disrupted
IDBI Bank board Approves `1500 Cr worth preferential issue to LIC
Godrej Properties To Sell Commercial Assets Worth `1,500 Cr: From PTI
RCF Likely To Get PIB Clearance For `5,500 Cr Urea Plant: From PTI
ONGC Gets Green Panel Nod For `1,752 Project In Guja-rat
Jet Airways Clarifies: News of Etihad Raising Stake is speculative
Strides Shasun: US FDA Concludes Inspection At Strides-Shasun Bengaluru Facility
JK Tyre: CCI Approves acquisition of Cavendish Ind
Renewable energy stocks - CERC floats draft regulations on renewable energy target and grid operations
Divi's Labs says US FDA Inspected Unit-2 At Chippada, Vizag; No Observations Made
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. PFC [FUTURE]
Last week PFC future create bottom near to 140 level but it is facing resistance at 156 and at last session it finished at 153.20 with long bullish candle so we advise to buy it around 148-150 for target of 155 160 170 with stop loss of 144. 2. ARVIND [FUTURE]
We seen last sharp fall in starting February expiry but this week ARVIND future hold level because of it has strong sup-port around 262 but 300 will be psychological resistance since this week it bounce from 100DMA of 269 on weekly chart so we advise to buy it in decline around 273-275 with stop loss of 255 for target of 295 320.
DAILY REPORT 22
nd FEB. 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
FUTURE & OPTION
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol Op-
tion
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
NIFTY CE 7,200 51.30 5,87,716 44,90,925
NIFTY CE 7,400 3.80 2,29,346 60,51,900
BANKNIFTY CE 14,500 71.00 1,14,291 5,92,680
SBIN CE 170 1.65 6,579 68,30,000
TATASTEEL CE 260 2.80 4,029 21,48,000
ICICIBANK CE 200 3.15 3,682 55,43,700
LT CE 1,200 5.60 2,658 6,33,000
MARUTI CE 3,700 14.25 2,476 1,51,625
MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol Op-
tion
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
NIFTY PE 7,100 18.05 4,08,393 45,30,075
NIFTY PE 7,200 47.85 3,62,591 50,56,350
BANKNIFTY PE 14,000 39.80 1,21,615 5,17,440
SBIN PE 160 1.80 3,480 40,40,000
SBIN PE 150 0.45 2,410 39,60,000
BHEL PE 100 2.25 2,187 13,70,000
TATSTEEL PE 240 1.70 2,091 21,46,000
LT PE 1,100 5.50 1,775 2,63,700
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY SELL
No. of
Contracts Amount in
Crores No. of
Contracts Amount in
Crores No. of
Contracts Amount in
Crores NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES 33082 1695.34 49856 2541.70 329013 17106.97 -846.36
INDEX OPTIONS 702308 36317.29 736351 37965.00 1476008 78194.44 -1647.70
STOCK FUTURES 138979 5984.88 139152 6018.36 1179437 50453.78 -33.49
STOCK OPTIONS 52341 2183.03 54459 2276.98 91061 3802.10 -93.95
TOTAL -2621.50
STOCKS IN NEWS Lupin Co along with Gavis to divest 2 generic drugs DLF brands may shut down Kidswear & Baby products
portal Electrosteel Steels Lenders to take the non SDR Route India set to seal major power deal in Bangladesh, beat-
ing China Nestle's Maggi market share shrinks 35%, ITC’s Yippee
grabs 33% Maruti Suzuki suspends production in north India amid
Jat protests India’s crude oil import bill for current fiscal may fall
45% NIFTY FUTURE
Nifty future remained range bound in last trading ses-sion. It kept fluctuating around 80 points and in the end-ing hours its signaled the bullishness. Now nifty take an upside rally respecting the Union budget this week. So we advise you to buy it above 7250 for the targets of 7350 and 7500 with strict stop loss of 7100
INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2
BANK NIFTY 7,283.00 7,257.00 7,201.00 7,175.00 7,119.00
NIFTY 14,504.00 14,424.00 14,315.00 14,235.00 14,126.00
DAILY REPORT 22
nd FEB. 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
RECOMMENDATIONS
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD ABOVE 29600 TARGET 29680 29780 SL 29500
SELL GOLD BELOW 29300 TARGET 29220 29120 SL 29200
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER ABOVE 37800 TARGET 38000 38300 SL 37500
SELL SILVER BELOW 37400 TARGET 37200 36900 SL 37800
COMMODITY ROUNDUP Indian Copper markets were static ahead of weekend and lack of triggers. The prices were trading at Rs 315.60 per kg against Rs 314.80 per kg. The prices tested a high of Rs 318.05 per kg and a low of Rs 314.55 per kg. The World Bu-reau of Metal Statistics newly released data showed that in 2015, global copper supply surplus of 146,000 tons, while 2014 cooper surplus of 116,000 tons. In 2015, global copper consumption was 22.931mn tons; while, 2014 copper con-sumption was 22.811mn tons. In 2015, Chinese copper ap-parent demand increased by 148,000 to 11.451mn tons, account 50% of total global demand. Meanwhile, Indian mines ministry has written to the finance ministry for scrap-ping of 10 percent export duty on iron ore with Fe content below 58 percent, a move that is designed to make the min-ing industry in Goa more competitive. Besides, it has also requested the finance ministry to consider raising the im-port duty on aluminium products by 2.5% to 7.5% and not raise the same on aluminium scrap. The global nickel mar-ket recorded its fourth straight year of oversupply in 2015, with output outpacing demand by 80,700 tonnes, data from the International Nickel Study Group showed on Thursday. Lead futures rose 1.47% to Rs 120.95 per kg on the back of strong demand in spot market and a firming trend overseas. At MCX lead for delivery in March edged higher by Rs 1.75 or 1.47% at Rs 120.95 per kg with a turnover of 26 lots. Also, the metal for delivery this month traded Rs 1.65, or 1.39% higher at Rs 120.25 per kg in 325 lots. Pick-up in domestic demand, particularly from battery-makers and a firming trend in base metal pack LME amid optimism that demand will recover in China after the govt signaled increased sup-port for the economy through higher spending and new measures to boost bank lending. Globally, at the LME, lead, used to make batteries, increased as much as 2.4%, the big-gest daily gain since Feb 8, to $1,763.5 per tonne. MCX Zinc gained about 1% amid a generally supportive un-dertone in metals today as buying stayed in place for the metal amid strong Chinese Zinc imports. Traders also eyed the setback in global supplies following mining output cuts. The commodity rose sharply yesterday, recovering from a one week low and added around 3% to close at Rs 117 per kg. The commodity is currently trading at Rs 118.10 per kg for February delivery, up 0.90% on the day. Technically driven supports have also swung into action for the counter as the latest rebound has occurred exactly after the metal came off its 20 day EMA. LME Zinc inventories have surged in last couple of sessions but remain around 50000 tonnes- down about 20% in last six months.
DAILY REPORT 22
nd FEB. 2016
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NCDEX
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value % Change
CHANA 4255 -0.95
CORIANDER 6639 -3.99
COTTON SEED 2108 -0.71
GUAR SEED 3105 -0.51
JEERA 14345 -1.88
MUSTARDSEED 3988 -0.57
SOY BEAN 3789 -0.11
SUGAR M GRADE 3075 -1.50
TURMERIC 8744 -0.70
RECOMMENDATIONS
DHANIYA
BUY CORIANDER APR ABOVE 6780 TARGET 6825 6975 SL
BELOW 6715
SELL CORIANDER APR BELOW 6600 TARGET 6555 6405 SL
ABOVE 6665
GUARGUM
BUY GUARGUM MARABOVE 5880 TARGET 5930 6000 SL
BELOW 5820
SELL GUARGUM MARBELOW 5680 TARGET 5630 5560 SL
ABOVE 5740
After almost a month since trading of castor seed futures was suspended, leading commodity derivative exchange for agri commodities NCDEX is keen to re-launch it. However, before that, it is reviewing surveillance and risk manage-ment, and has ordered internal audits of four members who were put on square-off mode and a forensic audit of the whole episode to find out what went wrong. The foren-sic audit began last week and its report is expected next month. It will be a holistic report that will look in to all as-pects of castor seed futures, including trading pattern, and explore whether there was meeting of minds or use of proxy to build positions, The forensic audit will also cover members and exchange officials. Flows of Indian white sugar to Myanmar, a gateway fors-muggling into China, are slowing down, while Brazilian sugar is becoming more competitive due to cheaper freight. Volumes of white sugar shipped to Myanmar soared last year and early this year due to jump in smuggling into-China because of high domestic prices in the world's top sugar buyer. Up to 1mt of sugar is trafficked into China every year, a Chinese agriculture ministry official said. The bulk of the smuggled white sugar came from India and Thai-land, with far-away Brazil supplying a much lower share. But persistently high domestic Indian sugar prices, around $30 per tonne above world prices, are now reducing incen-tives to ship low quality Indian whites to Myanmar. A fall in onion prices in the domestic market has resulted indehydrated onion exports rising by 30% at the opening of a new production season. The dehydrated onion industry begins fresh production and exports from January every year which goes on till July.
DAILY REPORT 22
nd FEB. 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
RBI Reference Rate
Currency Rate Currency Rate
Rupee- $ 68.4940 Yen-100 60.1500
Euro 76.3297 GBP 97.8642
CURRENCY
USD/INR
BUY USD/INR FEB ABOVE 68.76 TARGET 68.89 69.04 SL BE-
LOW 68.56
SELL USD/INR FEB BELOW 38.37 TARGET 38.24 38.09 SL
ABOVE 38.57
EUR/INR
BUY EUR/INR FEB ABOVE 76.8 TARGET 76.95 77.15 SL BE-
LOW 76.6
SELL EUR/INR FEB BELOW 76.13 TARGET 75.98 75.78 SL
ABOVE 76.33
CURRENCY MARKET UPDATES:
The US dollar continues to hold steady against a basket of
currencies on Friday with investors eyeing the release of
U.S. inflation data due later in the day. Oil prices began to
decline once again. The dollar index, which measures the
greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basket of six
major currencies, was at 96.85.
Meanwhile, demand for the safe-haven yen strengthened
as oil prices resumed their downward trend on Friday, a
day after the Energy Information Administration said U.S.
crude inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels last week, to a
peak of 504.1 million barrels. USD/JPY slid 0.34% to 112.87.
The European unit was little changed at 1.1101 versus the
greenback. Sentiment on the single currency remained vul-
nerable after the minutes of the European Central Bank's
January meeting, released on Thursday, signaled that the
bank is prepared to inject further monetary easing next
month if necessary to bolster growth.
As against the pound, dollar was higher with GBP/USD
down 0.32% at 1.4290. Retail sales in UK rose 2.3% in Janu-
ary, beating expectations for a 0.8% gain. Year-on-year,
retail sales climbed 5.2% last month, exceeding expecta-
tions for a 3.6% rise. Core retail sales, which exclude auto-
mobiles and fuel, increased by 2.3% in January, compared
to expectations for an uptick of 0.7%.
Sterling held gains against the dollar in choppy trading late
on Friday after European Union Council President Donald
Tusk said an agreement to keep Britain in the bloc won
unanimous support from all of the states' 28 leaders. Late
on Friday, sterling rose 0.4 percent against the dollar to
$1.4387, while the euro slipped 0.1 percent against the
British pound to 77.36 pence. The summit was forced into
extra time on Friday as British Prime Minister David Cam-
eron struggled for a deal he could sell to skeptical British
voters in a referendum promised by the end of 2017 but
that is likely to come in June
DAILY REPORT 22
nd FEB. 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
Date Commodity/ Currency
Pairs Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
19/02/16 NCDEX DHANIYA APR. BUY 6956 7001-7151 6891 NOT EXECUTED
19/02/16 NCDEX DHANIYA APR. SELL 6850 6805-6655 6915 BOOKED FULL PROFIT
19/02/16 NCDEX GUARGUM MAR. BUY 5850 5900-5970 5790 SL TRIGGERED
19/02/16 NCDEX GUARGUM MAR. SELL 5740 5690-5620 5800 NO PROFIT NO LOSS
19/02/16 MCX GOLD APR. BUY 29300 29380-29480 29200 BOOKED FULL PROFIT
19/02/16 MCX GOLD APR. SELL 29100 29020-28920 29200 NOT EXECUTED
19/02/16 MCX SILVER MAR. BUY 37600 37800-38100 37300 BOOKED FULL PROFIT
19/02/16 MCX SILVER MAR. SELL 37200 3700-36700 37500 BOOKED FULL PROFIT
Date Scrip
CASH/
FUTURE/
OPTION
Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
19/02/16 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 7200-7210 7100-7000 7350 NO PROFIT NO LOSS
19/02/16 JUSTDIAL FUTURE SELL 523 513-500 431 SL TRIGGERED
19/02/16 HINDZINC FUTURE SELL 167.5-168.5 164-160 172 NOT EXECUTED
18/02/16 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 7200-7210 7100-7000 7350 CALL OPEN
17/02/16 JUBLFOOD FUTURE BUY 1050 1065-1072 1220 CALL OPEN
DAILY REPORT 22
nd FEB. 2016
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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TIME REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL CONSENSUS
FORECAST PREVIOUS
MONDAY, FEB.22
8:30 AM CHICAGO FED NATIONAL ACTIVITY JAN. -- -0.22
9:45 AM MARKIT PMI FLASH FEB. -- 52.4
TUESDAY, FEB. 23
9 AM CASE-SHILLER U.S. HOME PRICES DEC. -- 5.3% YOY
10 AM CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FEB. 96.9 98.1
10 AM EXISTING HOME SALES JAN. 5.40 MLN 5.46 MLN
WEDNESDAY, FEB. 24
10 AM NEW HOME SALES JAN. 528,000 544,000
THURSDAY, FEB. 25
8:30 AM WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS 2/20 -- N/A
8:30 AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS JAN. 3.3% -5.0%
FRIDAY, FEB. 26
8:30 AM GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 4Q 0.3% 0.7% (4Q)
8:30 AM ADVANCE TRADE IN GOODS JAN. -$61.2 BLN -$61.5 BLN
10 AM CONSUMER SENTIMENT FEB. 91.9 90.7
10 AM PERSONAL INCOME JAN. 0.4% 0.3%
10 AM CONSUMER SPENDING JAN. 0.4% 0.0%
10 AM CORE INFLATION JAN -- 0.0%