envisioning skagit alternative futures
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Envisioning Skagit Alternative Futures. John Bolte Biological and Ecological Engineering Department Oregon State University. Alternative Futures Projects. Examine multiple scenarios of trends and assumptions about future conditions, generally using one or more models of change, - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Envisioning Envisioning Skagit Skagit
Alternative Alternative FuturesFutures
John BolteBiological and Ecological Engineering Department
Oregon State University
Alternative Futures Alternative Futures ProjectsProjects
Examine multiple Examine multiple scenariosscenarios of trends and of trends and assumptions about future conditions, generally assumptions about future conditions, generally using one or more models of change, using one or more models of change,
Assist in incorporating Assist in incorporating stakeholder interactionsstakeholder interactions to define to define goals, constraints, trajectories, drivers, goals, constraints, trajectories, drivers, outcomesoutcomes
Allow Allow visualizationvisualization of the results in a variety of of the results in a variety of types and formatstypes and formats
Ultimately are intended to assist in improving Ultimately are intended to assist in improving land management decision-making and land management decision-making and informing choices informing choices
An Approach to Projecting An Approach to Projecting Alternative Future Alternative Future
LandscapesLandscapes Based on modeling Based on modeling behavior and actionsbehavior and actions of of
individual land owners/land managers (individual land owners/land managers (actorsactors))
Our approach: spatially explicit, represents Our approach: spatially explicit, represents land management decisions of those with land management decisions of those with authority over parcels of landauthority over parcels of land
Actor decisionsActor decisions implemented through policies implemented through policies that guide & constrain potential actionsthat guide & constrain potential actions
Autonomous processesAutonomous processes (e.g. succession) (e.g. succession) simultaneously modeledsimultaneously modeled
Envision – Conceptual Envision – Conceptual StructureStructure
LandscapeFeedbacks
LandscapeFeedbacks
Actors Decision-makers managing the landscape by selecting policies responsive to their objectives
Policies
Fundamental Descriptors of constraints and actions defining land use management
decisionmaking
ScenarioDefinition
Autonomous Change Processes
Models of Non-anthropogenic Landscape Change
Landscape Production Models
Generating Landscape Metrics Reflecting Ecosystem Service Productions
Multiagent Decision-making
Select policies and generate land
management decision affecting landscape
pattern
Landscape Spatial Container in which landscape
changes, ES Metrics are
depicted
ENVISIONENVISION – Triad of Relationships – Triad of Relationships
Polic
ies
Inte
ntio
nsActors
Values
LandscapesMetrics of Production
Provide a common frame of referenceProvide a common frame of referencefor actors, policies and landscape productionsfor actors, policies and landscape productions
Goals•Economic Services•Ecosystem Services•Socio-cultural Services
Policy DefinitionPolicy Definition
Landscape policies are decisions or plans of Landscape policies are decisions or plans of action for accomplishing desired outcomes.action for accomplishing desired outcomes.
from:from:
Lackey, R.T. 2006. Axioms of ecological Lackey, R.T. 2006. Axioms of ecological policy. Fisheries. 31(6): 286-290.policy. Fisheries. 31(6): 286-290.
Policies in ENVISIONPolicies in ENVISION Policies are a decision or plan of action for Policies are a decision or plan of action for
accomplishing a desired outcome; they are a accomplishing a desired outcome; they are a fundamental unit of computationfundamental unit of computation in Evoland in Evoland
Describe actions available to actorsDescribe actions available to actors
Primary CharacteristicsPrimary Characteristics::
Applicable Site Attributes (Spatial Query)Applicable Site Attributes (Spatial Query)
Effectiveness of the Policy (determined by evaluative Effectiveness of the Policy (determined by evaluative models)models)
Outcomes (possible multiple) associated with the selection Outcomes (possible multiple) associated with the selection and application of the Policyand application of the Policy
ExampleExample: [: [Purchase conservations easement to allow Purchase conservations easement to allow revegetation of degraded riparian areasrevegetation of degraded riparian areas] in [] in [areas areas with no built structures and high channel migration with no built structures and high channel migration capacitycapacity] when [] when [native fish habitat becomes scarcenative fish habitat becomes scarce]]
Models in ENVISIONModels in ENVISION Models are “plug-ins” of two types:Models are “plug-ins” of two types:
1)1) Autonomous ProcessesAutonomous Processes: Represent : Represent processes causing landscape changes processes causing landscape changes independent of human decision-making independent of human decision-making – e.g. climate change, vegetative – e.g. climate change, vegetative succession, forest growth, fire, succession, forest growth, fire, flooding, ??? flooding, ???
2)2) Evaluative Models Evaluative Models – Generate – Generate production statistics and report back production statistics and report back how well the landscape is doing a how well the landscape is doing a producing metrics of interest – e.g. producing metrics of interest – e.g. carbon sequestration, habitat carbon sequestration, habitat production, land availability, risk, ???production, land availability, risk, ???
Models in ENVISIONModels in ENVISION A well-defined, relatively simple, yet robust A well-defined, relatively simple, yet robust
interface specificationinterface specification is defined for both is defined for both Autonomous Processes and Evaluative Models.Autonomous Processes and Evaluative Models.
Models can expose Models can expose input input andand output variables output variables
Models have Models have full access full access to to the underlying the underlying spatial representation, policy sets, exposed spatial representation, policy sets, exposed variables, actor representation, and spatial variables, actor representation, and spatial engineengine
Models can make changes to the Models can make changes to the underlying underlying landscape representationlandscape representation
EnvisionEnvision automatically manages automatically manages all exposed all exposed model datamodel data
ENVISION FrameworkENVISION FrameworkAndrews ApplicationAndrews Application
EN
VIS
ION
Mean Age at Harvest
Carbon Sequestration
Forest Products Extraction
Harvested Acreage
Fish Habitat (IBI)
Resource Lands Protection
Evaluative ModelsData Sources
Autonomous ProcessModels
Parcels (IDU’s)
Rural Residential Expansion
Policy Set(s)
Agent Descriptors
Vegetative Succession
Climate Change
Envision Andrews Study Envision Andrews Study AreaArea
Envision Andrews - Envision Andrews - ScenariosScenarios
Conservation - no Climate ChangeConservation - no Climate Change
Development - no Climate ChangeDevelopment - no Climate Change
Conservation - with Climate ChangeConservation - with Climate Change
Development - with Climate ChangeDevelopment - with Climate Change
DEMONSTRATIONDEMONSTRATIONEnvisionEnvision
Scenario Results – Forest Scenario Results – Forest CarbonCarbon
Scenario Results – Forest Scenario Results – Forest Product ExtractionProduct Extraction
Scenario Results – Fish Scenario Results – Fish IBIIBI
A possible approach for A possible approach for the Skagitthe Skagit
Use a mixture of parcel-level data, land use/land cover, and zoning Use a mixture of parcel-level data, land use/land cover, and zoning to establish decision units (IDU coverage)to establish decision units (IDU coverage)
Develop sets of policy alternatives, focusing on those landscape Develop sets of policy alternatives, focusing on those landscape areas of primary interest to the project, and addressing land areas of primary interest to the project, and addressing land management alternatives that represents a range of possible management alternatives that represents a range of possible management approachesmanagement approaches
Define several scenarios reflecting 1) plan trend , and 2) scenarios Define several scenarios reflecting 1) plan trend , and 2) scenarios addressing key stakeholder alternatives in terms of alternative addressing key stakeholder alternatives in terms of alternative policy setspolicy sets
Evaluate the resulting landscape trajectories with defensible models Evaluate the resulting landscape trajectories with defensible models of key metrics relevant to stakeholder goals.of key metrics relevant to stakeholder goals.