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i Fundy Ocean Research Center for Energy Environmental Effects Monitoring Programs Fundy Ocean Research Center for Energy (FORCE) March 2016

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Fundy Ocean Research Center for Energy

Environmental Effects Monitoring Programs Fundy Ocean Research Center for Energy (FORCE)

March 2016

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Executive Summary

TheFundyOceanResearchCenterforEnergy(FORCE)isCanada’sleadingresearchcentreforthedemonstrationandevaluationoftidalin-streamenergyconversion(TISEC)technology.TISECtechnology(commonlyreferredtoas“tidalenergyturbines”),isdesignedtogeneraterenewableenergyfromtidalresourcesitesacrossCanadaandtheglobe.FundamentaltoFORCE’smandateisthemonitoringandreportingofanyenvironmentaleffectsfromtidalturbinesattheFORCEsite.

FORCEisademonstrationproject,withberthsitesgrantedtoanumberoftechnologydevelopers(orberthholders)includingAtlantisOperationsCanada,DPEnergy,BlackRockTidalPower,CapeSharpTidalVentures,andMinasEnergy,ThegovernmentofNovaScotiahasgranted22.5megawatts(MW)ofTISECcapacityatFORCE,undertheprovince’sdevelopmentalfeed-intariffprogram.ThisrepresentsthedeploymentofapproximatelytwotothreeTISECturbinesbyeachdeveloperattheirberthsite.Asthesedeploymentsareexpectedtobephasedinoverthenextseveralyears,FORCEandregulatorswillhaveopportunitytoadaptenvironmentalmonitoringapproachesovertime,bothtobetterunderstandwhateffectsturbinesmayhaveontheenvironment,andtoreportonthemonitoringresultsandanyidentifiedeffectstothepublic.

EnvironmentalmonitoringhasbeenongoingatFORCEsince2007whenbackgroundstudieswereinitiatedfortheprojectEnvironmentalAssessment(EA).WhentheinitialEAwasapprovedbythefederalandprovincialgovernmentsin2009,thedevelopmentandimplementationofenvironmentaleffectsmonitoringprograms(EEMPs)werestipulatedintheTermsandConditionsofEAApproval.Inresponse,FORCEcompleted20monitoringstudiesbetween2009andlate2013,includingfishcharacterization,seabirds,marinemammals,lobstertracking,marinenoise,benthichabitat,electromagneticfields,andmore.TheresultsofthestudiesundertakentodatealongwiththeoriginalEAareavailableontheFORCEwebsite:http://fundyforce.ca/environment/.

AturbinewasoperationalattheFORCEsiteforashorttimein2009.Sinceremovalofthisunitin2010,notidalturbineshavebeenpresentattheFORCEsite.Consequently,theenvironmentalstudiesconductedbetween2009and2015havelargelyfocusedonthecollectionofbackgrounddata,ratherthanonmonitoringtheeffectsofturbines.Thissituationwillchangewiththeplanneddeploymentoftwocable-connectedturbinesin2016followedbyadditionaldeploymentsinsubsequentyears.

ThisreportdescribesnewEEMPsbasedondataandlessonslearnedfromtheenvironmentalstudiesconductedtodate.TheEEMPsaredesignedtosupplementbackgrounddatasetswhereneededbutareprimarilyaimedatverifyingpredictionsmadeintheEAandatmonitoringtheenvironmentaleffectsofoperatingturbines.TheEEMPsareintendedtomonitorpotentialeffectsfromtheinitialdemonstrationscaleproject,ratherthanfromapotentialcommercialscaleprojectthatmayoccurinthefuture.Tothisend,theEEMPsarelimitedtoeffectswithintheFORCECrownLeaseArea(CLA),anddonotattempttomeasureeffectsinthemuchlargerBayofFundy.

Monitoringprogramshavebeendevelopedforfivesubjectareas:Lobsters,Fish,MarineMammals,MarineSeabirdsandAcoustics(marinenoise).TheEEMPsareintendedtocoverinitialturbinedeploymentsoverthetimeperiod2016-2021.Theprogramsaredesignedtoaccommodateunforeseenchangesinturbinedeploymentschedulesandareadaptivetoinitialmonitoringresults.Itisalsoexpectedthatthedesignand/ormethodsofcertainprogramsmaybeupdatedinlateryearsonceearlyresultsareknown.WithintheCLAmeasuring1.0x1.6km,FORCEleasestoeachberthholderadedicatedberthsome200mindiameter.Theberthholderinturnwilldeploy,operateandtesttheirturbinetechnologies,whichwillbeconnectedtotheelectricalgridthroughdedicatedsubseacables.Giventheseoverlappingareas

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ofresponsibility,theberthholdersareresponsibleformonitoringwithina100mradiusoftheirturbines(theso-called“nearfield”effects),whileFORCEwillberesponsibleformonitoringoutsideofthiszonewithintheCLA(theso-called“midfield”effects).Berthholder-generatedEEMPswillbeavailabletoprovideacomprehensivepictureofallmonitoringthatwillbeundertakenwithintheCLA.FORCEwill:

• reportresultsfromboththeFORCEandberthholderEEMPstoregulators;and• makeallEEMPreportsavailabletothepublic.

TheFORCEEEMPsareintendedtobepractical,achievableusingavailabletechnologies,anddemonstrativeofnegativeornulleffects.Themonitoringapproachesalsoreflectthedifficultyinoperatinginthishighenergyenvironmentandcertaintechnologicallimitationsinherentinsomeoftheequipmentthatwillbeemployed.However,throughtheseEEMPs,FORCEintendstoprogressivelyverifytheenvironmentaleffectpredictionsmadeintheoriginalEAoverthenextfiveyears.Asummaryoftheprogramsispresentedinthetableattheendofthisreport.

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TABLEOFCONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 61.0 FORCE .......................................................................................................................... 61.1 Context ......................................................................................................................... 91.2

1.2.1 FORCE’sEAApproval ........................................................................................... 91.2.1 EEMPDevelopment ............................................................................................. 9

Objectives ................................................................................................................... 111.3 BerthHolderEEMPs ..................................................................................................... 121.4 EMACRecommendations ............................................................................................. 121.5 RegulatorReview ........................................................................................................ 121.6

SECTION2:LOBSTERS ............................................................................................................ 132.0 Objectives ................................................................................................................... 132.1 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 132.2

2.2.1 Overview .......................................................................................................... 132.2.2 MidFieldStudyDesign ....................................................................................... 132.2.3 MultipleTurbines ............................................................................................... 14

2.3Discussion ...................................................................................................................... 15 SECTION3:FISH .................................................................................................................... 173.0

Introduction ................................................................................................................ 173.1 Objectives ................................................................................................................... 173.2 MonitoredVariables .................................................................................................... 183.3 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 193.4

3.4.1 BoatPlatformandAcousticSurveySystem .......................................................... 193.4.2 SurveyDescription ............................................................................................. 193.4.3 Schedule ........................................................................................................... 213.4.4 DataProcessing ................................................................................................. 223.4.5 DataAnalysis .................................................................................................... 22

SECTION4:MARINEMAMMALS ............................................................................................. 244.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 244.1 EEMPContext ............................................................................................................. 244.2 EEMPObjectives ......................................................................................................... 254.3 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 264.4

SECTION5:ACOUSTICS(MARINENOISE) ................................................................................. 335.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 335.1 Objectives ................................................................................................................... 345.2 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 355.3

SECTION6:MARINESEABIRDS ............................................................................................... 376.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 376.1 Objectives ................................................................................................................... 376.2 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 376.3

6.3.1 MonitoringApproach ......................................................................................... 376.3.2 StudyDesign ..................................................................................................... 386.3.3 SamplingFrequency ........................................................................................... 386.3.4 EEMPFieldSurveys ............................................................................................ 396.3.5 ShoreBasedSurveys .......................................................................................... 39

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6.3.6 DataAnalysis .................................................................................................... 41 SECTION7:SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 427.0 SECTION8:REFERENCES ........................................................................................................ 458.0

LISTOFACRONYMS

CLA CrownLeaseArea

CSAS CanadianScienceAdvisorySecretariat

DFO FisheriesandOceansCanada(formerlytheDepartmentofFisheriesandOceans)

EA EnvironmentalAssessment

EC EnvironmentCanada

EEMP EnvironmentalEffectsMonitoringProgram

EMF ElectromagneticField

EMAC EnvironmentalMonitoringAdvisoryCommittee

FAST FundyAdvancedSensorTechnology

FORCE FundyOceanResearchCenterforEnergy

MARS MarineAnimalResponseSociety

MW Megawatt

NSE NovaScotiaEnvironment

TISEC TidalIn-StreamEnergyConversion

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INTRODUCTION1.0

FORCE1.1

TheFundyOceanResearchCentreforEnergy(FORCE)isCanada’sleadingresearchfacilityfortidalenergytechnologylocatedintheMinasPassage,BayofFundy.FORCEisaprivate,not-for-profitdemonstrationfacility,withfundingsupportfromtheGovernmentofCanada,theProvinceofNovaScotia,EncanaCorporation,andparticipatingdevelopers.

FORCEwasdesignedtoexplorethepotentialfortidalin-streamenergyconversion(TISEC)technology–resemblinganunderwaterwindmill–tocontributetoNovaScotiaandCanada’srenewableenergysupply,andleveragetheregion’sexistingexpertiseintheoceansciencesector.

FORCEhasfourkeyroles,including:

- Host:Providingdeveloperswithanapprovedoffshoredemonstrationarea,onshoreandoffshoreelectricalequipment,anoperationsfacility,andconnectiontothetransmissiongrid.

- Monitoring:Asmentionedabove,since2009,FORCEhasconductedanindependentlyreviewedenvironmentaleffectsmonitoringprogram(EEMP),andhassharedresultswiththepublic.

- Research:FORCEsupportsnewtoolstocharacterizetheresourceandadvancenewmonitoringtechniques.Thisincludesbothonshoreradarandweatherinformationaswellasoffshoreunderwatermonitoringplatforms–allpartofaprogramcalledFAST(FundyAdvancedSensorTechnology).

- Engagement:FORCEconnectsindustry,government,academiaandthepublicinanefforttoensuredevelopmentactivityintheBayofFundyistransparentandviable.

TheFORCEprojectcurrentlyconsistsoffiveunderseaberthsforTISECsubseaturbinegenerators(tobeinstalled),foursubseapowercablesthatwillconnecttheturbinestoland-basedinfrastructure,anonshoresubstation,andpowerlinesconnectedtotheNorthAmericanpowertransmissionsystem.Themarineportionoftheprojectislocatedinaleasedareafromtheprovince(FORCE’sCrownLeaseArea,orCLA),1.6-kmby1-kminarea,intheMinasPassage,andtheonshorefacilitiesarelocatedapproximately10kmWestofParrsboro,NovaScotia.

Todate,accesstoFORCEberthsiteshasbeenawardedviaaprovincialtenderissuedbytheNovaScotiaDepartmentofEnergy.FORCEdevelopershavereceivedapprovalthroughNovaScotia’sdevelopmentalfeed-intariffprogramforatotalof22.5megawatts(MW)ofelectricity:

·MinasEnergy,4MW

·BlackRockTidalPower,5MW

·AtlantisOperationsCanada,4.5MW

·CapeSharpTidalVenture,4MW

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·DPEnergy,4.5MW

Theapprovalallowsthedeveloperstoenterintoa15-yearpowerpurchaseagreementwithNovaScotiaPower.Figure1showstheFORCEfacilityintheMinasPassage,includingthemarinedemonstrationarea,berthsitesandcablesroutes.

Figure1:FORCESiteincludingberthsandpowercablelocations

(proceedingpage)

Crown Lease Deployment Area

Cable Termination

Cable Termination

Cable Termination

Cable Termination

Main Anchor

Main Anchor

Main AnchorMain

Anchor

Grappling Anchor

Grappling Anchor

Grappling Anchor

Clump Weight

Clump Weight

Hub C

onne

ctor

Hub Connector

Open Hydro Hub

Data CablePower Cable B

Power Cable C

Power Cable D

Power Cable AE

D

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C

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64°24'30"W64°25'W64°25'30"W64°26'W64°26'30"W

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387000 387500 388000 388500 389000 389500 39000050

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Bay of Fundy

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Parrsboro

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Seaforth Geosurveys Inc.300 Prince Albert Road, Suite 200

Dartmouth, Nova ScotiaCanada B2Y 4J2

Phone: (902)468-3579www.seaforthgeosurveys.com

Rev Date Prepared By Checked By Comments

Prepared By:Job / Proposal #: 612 Doc #: SGI-612-105-A

Title:

Client:

Project:

1:10,000

0 100 200 300 400 500 m

A 02/24/16 AA

Scale:

Datum / Projection: WGS84 UTM 20

Notes: 1) Plan view showing FORCE berths, cables and deployed Open Hydro assets.

2) The Data cable was laid in December, 2013; the power cables were laid in October, 2014; the Open Hydro hub and connectors were deployed in December, 2015.

FORCE

Fundy Tidal Energy Demonstration Project

FORCE POWER CABLES ANDBERTH POSITIONS

Legend

DRAFTGC

Cable FeaturesGround Tackle

Hub To HC ConnectorsCrown Lease Deployment Area

Power Cables And Berth Sites

Berth Site E

Cable & Berth ACable & Berth BCable & Berth C

D, InferredCable & Berth D

Unsurveyed Cable Sections Data Cable

FORCE March 2016 Environmental Effects Monitoring Program 1.0 INTRODUCTION

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FollowingapprovaloftheDemonstrationProjectinSeptember2009,thefirstTISECturbine(OpenHydrodesign)wasdeployedonNovember12,2009byNSPIandOpenHydro.TheNSPI/OpenHydroturbinewasretrievedinDecember2010,andsincethennofurthertidaldeviceshavebeendeployedintheFORCEdemonstrationarea.

Context1.2

1.2.1 FORCE’sEAApproval

AnEEMPwasmadeaconditionofEnvironmentalAssessment(EA)ApprovaloftheFORCEtestsitein2009andanumberofbiophysicalstudieshavebeenundertakensincethen(FORCE2011;FORCE2014;FORCE2015).Thesestudiesweredesignedtodocumentpre-developmentconditions,assessinstrumentationanddataretrievaltechniques,andforalimitedtimewhenafunctioningturbinewaspresentin20091,monitorenvironmentaleffectsoncertainbiophysicalcomponents.

Theoriginal2009EAApprovalwasforthree,1MWdemonstrationscaleTISEC2units.TheEARegistrationdocumentandApprovalbothindicatethatFORCE’sprimaryenvironmentalmonitoringmandateisassessingthepotentialeffectsofdemonstrationscaleprojectsattheFORCEsite,ratherthancommercialscaleeffectsorbroaderresearchpriorities.TheEEMPsdescribedherethereforeaddresstheFORCEdemonstrationprojectandpredictionsmadewithrespecttopossibleenvironmentaleffects,andnotlargerscaleresearchissuesinthegreaterBayofFundy.

Atthesametime,datageneratedthroughtheseEEMPsmayeventuallybeusedbyothersformodellingandotherworkintendedtopredictthepotentialimpactsfrom‘scalingup’turbinedeploymentsfromdemonstrationtopotentialfuturecommercialscaledevelopmentsintheProvince.

A2011amendmenttotheEAApprovaladdedafourth,1MWprojecttobelocatedwithinthelimitsoftheCLAattheFORCEdemonstrationsite.InMarch2015,theProvinceofNovaScotiaawardedeachofthefourberthholderstherighttotestdemonstrationscaleturbinearrays,meaningtwoormoreconnectedturbinestotalingupto5MWperberth.SubsequentlyinNovember2015,theProvinceannouncedthatafifthberthwouldbepermittedwithintheFORCECLA.FORCEaccordinglyrequestedasecondamendmenttoitsEAApproval,whichwasreceivedinNovember2015.Thecurrentdemonstrationprojectconsistsoffivegridconnected,4-5MWdemonstrationscaleprojects,eachprojectsituatedwithinadesignatedberthwithintheCLA,witheachberthhostingadifferentturbinetypeandplatformdesign.

1.2.1 EEMPDevelopment

FORCEinNovember2014issuedapublicrequestforproposalsfortheprocurementofservicestosupportthedevelopmentofenhancedmonitoringprogramsinadvanceofturbinedeployment.TheRFPandoverallprojectscopeweredevelopedinconsultationwithFORCE’sEnvironmentalMonitoringAdvisoryCommittee(EMAC).FollowingfurtherconsultationwithFORCE’sEMAC,theworkwasawardedtoaprojectteamofexpertsledbySLRConsulting(Canada)Ltd.andtheirresultingreport

1TheturbinedeployedbyOpenHydroandNovaScotiaPowerInc.waspresentfromNovember2009untilDecember2010butwasonlyoperationalforseveralweeksinNovember2009.2 In this report, the industry term“TISEC”or Tidal In-streamEnergyConversionunit is used interchangeablywith “turbine”,whichismorecommon.HoweveritshouldberecognizedthatnotallTISECsareturbines.

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(“Consultant’sReport”postedhere:fundyforce.ca/environment/monitoring/)formsthebasisfortheFORCEEEMPsdescribedbelow.PleaserefertotheConsultant’sReportformoredetailregardingtheprojectteam,pastresearchstudiesintheBayofFundyandadditionalrationaleforeachstudymethodologysummarizedbelow.

FollowinginitialdiscussionswithFORCEandEMAC,thestudydesignsindraftformwerepresentedtoFisheriesandOceansCanada(DFO),NovaScotiaDepartmentoftheEnvironment(NSE),andthejointfederal-provincial“OneWindow”StandingCommitteeontidalenergy.Concurrently,CapeSharpTidalVenture3presentedtheirEEMPtotheCommittee.

Atthesametime,FORCEupdatedandsoughtinputfromlocalfishersandFirstNationrepresentativeswithrespecttopastmonitoringstudyresultsandprogressontheEEMPmandate.FishersandFirstNationrepresentativesarealsomembersofEMACandattendedEEMPproject-relatedmeetingsandpresentationsrelatedtothedevelopmentofthenewEEMP.

TheEEMPsareprimarilydesignedtoverifytheimpactpredictionsmadeintheEA(AECOM2009;AECOM2010).TheyarebasedonthemonitoringrequirementsfirstdescribedintheTermsandConditionsofEnvironmentalAssessmentApproval(NSE2009),whichrequirethattheEEMPconsider:

• Fishandlobster• Marinebirds• Marinemammals• Acoustics(MarineNoise)• Physicaloceanography• Currentsandwaves• Benthicenvironment

OfthesesubjectareasandbasedoninputbyFORCE’sEMAC,thepresentEEMPislimitedtomonitoringprogramsforfish,lobster,marinemammals,marinebirds(seabirds)andacoustics(marinenoise).Thisisbecause:

• Giventheworkalreadyundertakenonthedifferentphysicaloceanographiccomponents(includingcurrentsandwaves),bothDFOandEMAChaveindicatedthatadditionaloceanographicmeasurementsarenotneededforademonstrationscaleprojectatthistime(DFO2012;EMAC2011).Nevertheless,ongoingmeasurementsofcurrents,tidesandotheroceanographicparameterswillbeundertakenbybothFORCEandtheberthholdersaspartoftheiroperationalactivities.Asanexampleoftheseactivities,FORCEisdeployinganumberofautonomousinstrumentplatformsaspartofitsongoingcommitmenttodevelopinginnovativeresearchandmonitoringtechniquesinhighcurrentenvironments.MoredetailontheFundyAdvancedSenorTechnology(FAST)platformscanbefoundontheFORCEwebsiteathttp://fundyforce.ca/fast/

• FORCEisnotcurrentlyplanningtomonitorthemidfieldbenthic(seabottom)environmentbecauseitisanticipatedthatthemostpronouncedeffects,i.e.scouring,maybeobservedinthenearfieldclosetotheturbines.FORCEwillworkwiththeberthholderstoconductthenearfieldbenthicmonitoring.Additionally,thebenthicbiotaontheexposed,current-scouredseabedwithintheCLA

3 Cape Sharp Tidal Venture is a joint venture between Emera Inc. and OpenHydro, a DCNS Company, formed to deployOpenHydro-designedturbinesattheFORCEsite.

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wascharacterisedduringinitialbackgroundstudiesasrathercommonintheBayofFundy.Thishabitatexhibitslittlebiologicaldiversityorunusualspeciescomposition.Giventhesecharacteristics,anefforttodocumentminimal(ifany)actualchangestothemidfieldbenthicenvironmentwasthoughttobeanunproductiveuseoftheresourcesavailableformonitoring.

TheConsultantdidnotdevelopanEEMPforthesubjectofelectromagneticfields(EMFs).ThepotentialenvironmentaleffectsofEMFsweredescribedasbeingessentiallynegligibleinthe2009EAandsubsequentlywerenotlistedintheConditionsofEAApprovalasrequiringatopic-specificEEMP.Inaddition,adetailedliteraturereviewonthissubjectcommissionedbyFORCEin2012concludedthatinjuryorotheradverseeffectsareunlikelytoeventhemostEMF-sensitivemarineorganisms(Collins2012;seealsoWoodruffetal.2013).AsrecommendedinCollins(2012),FORCEwillcontinuetomonitortheemerginginternationalresearchliteratureregardingtheeffectsofEMFsonmarinebiota.

Objectives1.3

Globally,in-streamtidalenergyprojectsaredevelopingbeyondsingleunitdeploymentstolarger,demonstration(pre-commercial)andcommercialscalearrays,andFORCEisfollowingthedevelopmenttrajectoryofdemonstration(pre-commercial)arrays.Aspartofitsmandate,FORCEistaskedwithmonitoringandevaluatingtheenvironmentaleffectsoftheactivitiesundertakenatitssite,andreportingontheseeffectstothepublic.FORCEisnottaskedwithdeterminingpotentialeffectsfrompossiblefuturecommercialscaleprojects,sinceFORCEisademonstrationprojectandcommercialisationfallsoutsideofFORCE’smandate.Itisalsoimportanttounderlinethatitisunusuallydifficult(andexpensive)todeploy,manageandretrievemonitoringequipmentatthishighenergysite.TheFORCEEEMPsarebasedonpastexperienceinMinasPassageandthebestavailablescientificadviceregardingmonitoringapproachesandinstrumentation.TheEEMPisiterativeandwilllikelychangeasearlyresultssuggestnewapproachesordifferentinstruments.

TheultimateobjectiveistoimplementEEMPsthatwillallowtheassessmentofenvironmentaleffectsoncriticalecosystemswithintheFORCEprojectareaandnearbywatersoverthenextphaseofturbinedeployment.Ingeneral,theseprogramshavebeendesignedforthenextfiveyears,andareresponsivetochangesinturbinedeploymentschedulesandadaptabletotheultimateturbinepositionswithintheFORCECLA.TheoverarchingpurposeofeachEEMPistoverifytheaccuracyoftheenvironmentaleffectpredictionsmadeintheEAandmaintaincompliancewithconditionsofprovincialandfederalapprovals.Incontrasttotheresearch-orientedfocusofpastworkundertakenatFORCEtocharacterisebaselineconditions,theseEEMPsareaimedspecificallyatpost-deploymenteffectsmonitoring.

Asnotedabove,theEEMPsaredesignedtobeflexibleandadaptivetotheTISECdeploymentschedules.Inkeepingwiththe“adaptivemanagement”approachthatwasrecommendedbyregulatorsandFORCEsincethebeginningoftheFORCEproject,modificationstotheEEMPs(ifneeded)canbeimplementedoncedeploymentschedulesarebetterknown.Adaptivemanagementisaniterativeapproachthatapplieslessonslearnedfrompaststudiestoinformthedesignoffutureprograms.Italsoattemptstoincorporatechangingexpectationsexpressedbyregulators,thepublicandtheberthholders.Asmoreturbinesaredeployed,actualeffectsmaydifferfromeffectsmeasuredatsingledevicesandtheEEMPscanbeadjustedtoaccountforthis.

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BerthHolderEEMPs1.4

Eachberthholderistaskedwithmonitoringwithin100moftheirturbinesandthuswilldeveloptheirownEEMPs.BerthholderEEMPs(oncereviewedbytheregulators)willbemadeavailableinordertoprovideacomprehensivepictureofallmonitoringthatwillbeundertakenwithintheCLA.Thenewberthholder’sEEMPswillbeavailablepriortotheirturbinedeployment.FORCEwill:

a) beresponsibleforreportingtheresultsfromboththeFORCEandberthholderEEMPstoregulators,andsubsequently

b) makethereportsavailabletothepublic.

EMACRecommendations1.5

FORCE’sEMACplayedakeyroleinreviewingandcritiquingdraftmonitoringprogrammethodsandreviewingthefinalEEMPs.EMACismadeupofindependentscientificexpertsandrepresentativesfromFirstNationsandthelocalfishingindustry.TheCommitteeistaskedwithprovidingadviceontheadequacyofthemonitoringprogramsthatFORCEisrequiredtodevelopandimplementundertheEAApproval.AlistofEMACmembers,theCommittee’sTermsofReferenceandtheircommentsregardingtheEEMPareavailableontheFORCEwebsite:fundyforce.ca/about/advisory-committees/

AsindicatedinEMAC’sRecommendationsRegardingtheFORCEEnvironmentalEffectsMonitoringProgram(EEMP)for2016andBeyond,(fundyforce.ca/environment/monitoring/),EMACsupportsthemonitoringapproachesforeachsubjectareaasdescribedinthisreport.EMACrecommendationsorsuggestionsaimedatindividualmonitoringprogramshavebeenincorporatedwhereapplicableintothechaptersbelow.

RegulatorReview1.6

PreliminaryadviceontheConsultant’sReportwasalsoreceivedfromtheNovaScotiaDepartmentofEnvironment(NSE),DFOandEnvironmentCanada(EC),whichhavebeentakenintoconsiderationwhendesigningthemonitoringprogramsdescribedbelow.Furtheradvicewillbeprovidedbytheregulatorsovertime,aspartoftheAdaptiveManagementapproach.

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SECTION2:LOBSTERS2.0

Objectives2.1

AsdescribedintheEA,asignificantadverseeffectisdefinedasonethatcreatesasignificantalterationtoapopulation(oraportionofit)tocauseanunnaturaldeclineorchangeintheabundanceordistributionofthepopulationtoalevelfromwhichrecoveryofthepopulationisuncertain,overonegenerationormore.

Inordertomeasurea“significantalterationinapopulation”sothatanynegativeeffectscanultimatelybedetermined,knowledgeoftheabundanceandmovementoflobstersintheMinasPassageduringvarioustimesoftheyearisneeded.Pastlobstercatchabilitystudiescombinedwithacoustictaggingsurveyshaveprovidedsufficientbackgroundinformationtoestablish,ingeneralterms,relativeabundanceandseasonalmovementpatterns.PleaserefertotheConsultantReportforadetailedreviewofpastworkinMinasPassageonthesubjectoflobster.SincecommercialfishingwastheprimaryconcernidentifiedintheEA,theEEMPbelowisdesignedtoanswerthequestion:doesthepresenceoftheturbineaffectthenumberorweightoflobsterenteringthetraps?

Methodology2.2

2.2.1 Overview

Theprimaryenvironmentaleffectsvariablethatwillbemonitoredisthenumberoflobstercaughtpertrap,combinedwith(assuggestedbyDFO2012)theweightoflobstercaughtpertrap.Asinpastcatchabilitystudiesthatusestandard,baitedcommerciallobstertraps,theprimaryevaluationofeffectswilluseAnalysisofVariancetocomparecatchabilityatdefineddistancesfromtheturbine(s).

DespitethelimitationsanddifficultiesimposedbytheBayofFundymarineenvironment,thepriorlobstercatchabilitystudiesdemonstratedthatasimpleBeforeAfterControlImpact(BACI)studycanprovideusefulenvironmentaleffectsmonitoringdata.Bayley(2010)determinedthenumberofsamples(traps)neededtodetectachangeinlobstercatchabilitywithsufficientstatisticalreliability.Basedonpreliminaryresults,areductionincatchof2lobsterspertrapwasconsideredsignificant.

2.2.2 MidFieldStudyDesign

Thetextbelowdescribesamid-fieldEEMPwithoneturbineatthecenterofthemonitoringprogram.Thestudydesignproposessamplecollectionfromrandomsamplestationslocatedwithintworingsaroundtheturbine:oneringat300-350mfromtheturbine(calledthe“treatmentring”)andoneringat450-500m(calledthe“controlring”).Bothringswouldbedividedintofourquadrats(east,west,northandsouth)andsamplesiteswouldberandomlyassignedineachringwithineachquadrant.Ideally,thequadratsshouldbealignedwiththetidalcurrentdirectionsothatdirectionaleffectsinfrontofandbehindtheturbineinactioncanbecomparedwithresultsinquadratsbesidetheoperatingturbine.

Thedouble-ring-and-quadratapproachisproposedtoaccountforpossibledirectionaleffectsduetowatercurrentsandnoisefromtheturbine,andtoallowforcurrent-inducedtrapmovement.

Regardingthetotalnumberofsamplestations,Bayley(2010)suggestsitisimportanttohaveasufficientnumberofback-upsamplestoensureasbalancedadesignaspossible.Atotalof24randomizedsample

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stations,12ineachring,isproposed.Withtworings(oneat300-350mandoneat450-500m),thismeanssixstationsineachquadrant.

Itisfurtherproposedthatallstationsaresampledthreetimestocompleteonesurvey.Bayley(2010)notesthatthreereplicationsandsixstationsperquadrat“wouldprovidegoodinsuranceforsinglelossesinlocationsorsitereplications,andstillretaintemporalandspatialreplication…”

Ifallsamplescouldbecompleted,thetotalsamplespersurveywouldbe72(24stationssampled3times),meaning36samplesforthe“treatmentring”and36samplesforthe“controlring,which,Bayleynotes,providesgoodpowerforthemaintreatment/controleffect.Abalanceddesignof72samplespersurveywillprovidedatatoevaluate:

1. Differencesincatchabilitywithdistancefromtheturbine(“distanceeffects”);2. Differencesincatchabilityinfront/behindvsbesidetheturbine(“directionaleffects”);3. Allowanceforlossofsamples(traps);and4. Comparabilitywithexistingdata.

Iftheresultsofthisstudydonotdetectastaticallysignificantchangeinlobstercatchability,ortheeffectsofadetectedchangearesolowastoensurethatnosignificanteffectsonthecommercialharvestwillbefelt,thentheEEMPcanbediscontinuedafteraminimumofthreesurveys.Afullthreesurveysareproposedtocaptureprogressivedevicedeploymentsovertime.Theactualnumberofsurveyscompletedwilldependonthedeploymentscheduleandinitialresults.

CEF(2010)reportsthatapproximately15stationscanbesampledroutinelyinatypicalday.Morestationscanbesampledatloweramplitudetidesbecausethesurveyvesselcanspendmoretimeinthewaterandtrapsremainclosertotheirsetlocation.Atextremehightides,buoysmayremainatthesurfaceforlessthan30minutesateachslacktide,allowingrecoveryofrelativelyfewtraps.Thisexperienceimpliesthatallstationscanbesampledoverthecourseoftwodays,andthatasinglesurveyconsistingofthreereplicateswouldrequireatotalof6days,notincludingpreparation,trapsettinganddataanalysis.

Giventhattwoturbineswillbeinstalledin2016withinBerthD,thestudydesignproposedabovecanbeeasilymodifiedtoaccommodatetwoturbineswithinasingleberth,asisproposedforBerthD.Thetwoturbineswillbelocatedwithin200mofeachothersincetheberthdiameteris200m,andsocanbetreatedasasingleunit.Oncetheexactplacementoftheturbinesisknown,theringdistancecanbeadjustedtoincludeandeffectivelyrepresentbothturbines.AswiththeotherEEMPs,studytimingwilldependontheturbinedeploymentschedule.

2.2.3 MultipleTurbines

Secondinpriorityisthequestionoffar-fieldeffects.AsBayley(2010)observes:aretherelargerscaleconsequences(i.e.,outsideof500mfromtheturbine)oftheturbinepresence?

Itisunlikelythatsignificanteffectsinthefarfieldwillbedetectedwithonlyoneortwoturbinesinstalled.Giventhis,FORCEproposestodeferanyfar-fieldstudiesuntilthreeormoreturbinesaredeployed,asrecommendedintheConsultant’sReport.Oncethreeormoreturbinesareinstalled,thestudycanbeexpandedasperDesignBintheConsultantReport,ifdeemedappropriate.

Atthistime,itappearsthefirsttwoturbineswillbedeployedin2016inBerthDandthenextturbineswillbedeployedin2017inBerthB,over1000maway.Thegreatdistanceseparatingthesetwoturbine

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berthssuggeststherewillbelimitedinterferenceoroverlapinenvironmentaleffectsbetweenthem.Giventhis,theyarebestmonitoredasseparateinstallations;themidfieldstudydesigncanbeappliedtotheBerthBturbines.Whenthenextberthisoccupied,studydesignsmaybemodifiedtoaccountforthepotentialcumulativeeffectsfrommultipledevices.

Oncethreeberthsareoccupied,thejointeffectofmultipleturbinescanbeassessed.Insteadofdistinguishingdistancefromturbineonacategoricalbasis(treatment/control),asimpliedbytheringsinthemidfielddesign,onecantakeacontinuousapproachbylabellingsamplesfromeachsiteintermsoftheirdistancefromoneormoreturbines(Bayley2010).Toaccomplishthis,asufficientnumberofrandomlyselectedsamplestationswouldbeselectedatdifferentdistancesfromtheturbinesandaccountingforvaryingwaterdepths.

Giventheuncertaintyregardingthetimingoffuturedeployments,planningforfuturestudiesdesignedtoaddressmultipleturbineswillbedeferreduntilshort-termstudyresultsareknownanddeploymentschedulesarefurtherdefined.

2.3Discussion

ThesestudydesignsincludesuggestionsproposedinDFO(2012):

• Thenumberofreplicatesamples(traps)isdescribed(threereplicatesformonesurvey).

• Themonitoringprogramisdesignedtoassesseffectsoncatchabilitywhiletheturbinesareinoperation.

• CatchratesexpressedasKg/traphauledwillalsoberecordedandevaluated.

• Monitoringactivitieswillbeconductedduringtheout-of-fishingseason.

Sincethenumberoflobsterscaughtpertrap-setisnotnormallydistributed4,Bayley(2010)recommendsthatfuturestatisticalanalysesofstudyresultsuseGeneralizedLinearModels(GLM)withanegativebinomialdistributionratherthanthestandardlog(count+1)transformationthatistypicallyappliedtodatathatisnormallydistributed.

Thisproposeddesignrequiresnewstationstoberandomlyselected.Sincedepthisknowntobeasignificantvariable,CEF(2012)suggestssomestratificationbydepthbeintroducedintothestationselectiontoensurethatanadequatebalanceofdepthsissampled.

Toincreasestudyefficiencyandwiththeintentionofreducingcurrent-inducedtrapmovement,certainstationsduringpastsurveysweresampledwithpairsoftrapsconnectedbya60mrope.Statisticalanalysisindicatestheresultsfromthepairedsamplesarenotcomparabletothenon-pairedsamples(Bayley2010).Thereviewerrecommendeddiscontinuingtheuseofpairedtrapsinfuturesurveys.ThisalsoreducestheentanglementsafetyhazardidentifiedinCEF2010.The2009-2010trappairdatacanstillbeusedinfutureanalyses:resultsforoneofthetwotrapsfromeachpaircanberandomlychosen,pooledandthenusedinstatisticalanalyses.

4“normal”distributionisastatisticaltermusedtodescribedatathattendstoclusteraroundacentralormeanvalue.

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Difficultieswereencounteredduetotheshorttimeoverwhichthetrapscouldbesetandrecovered(lessthananhouroverslacktide)andthetime(andexpense)requiredatseabecauseoflowwaterlevelsatthewharf.Inaddition,thestrongcurrentsoftenmovedtrapsfromtheirinitialdeploymentlocation,typicallyapproximately100mfrominitialdeploymentlocation(butupto1.0km).Duringthefirstfall2009survey,3of51trapswerelost.Duringthesecondfall2009survey,7of48trapswerelost.Duringthespring2010survey5of28trapswerelost.Analysisofresultsmusttakeintoaccountbothtraplossandtrapmovement.Planningandcostestimatesshouldfactorina15%traplossrate.

Itshouldalsobenotedthatlobsterpopulations(i.e.,abundance)arenoticeablyaffectedbycommercialfishingpressures.Noiseandvibrationeffectsoffourorfiveturbinesmaybeverydifficulttomeasureincomparison.Giventhis,thestudywillbedesignedtominimizetheeffectsofthecommercialharvestonstudyresultsi.e.lobsterfishingseasons.

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SECTION3:FISH3.0

Introduction3.1

Thefollowingparagraphdescribesthepredicteddemonstrationscaleimpactsonfish(AECOM2009):

ItisanticipatedthatmarinefishpresentormigratingthroughtheProjectareamayexperienceverylimitedbehaviouralchangessuchasavoidanceandaversion,aswellaslimitedmortalityandhabitatdisruption.Theextentoftheseeffectsisnotknowngiventhelackofspecificinformationrelatedtonoisegeneratedbytheproposeddevices,andthebackgroundnoiseintheProjectarea.Byfollowingexistingstandardconstructionpractices,availableguidelinesandassociatedmitigationmeasures,ProjectactivitiesandcomponentsarenotlikelytocausesignificantadverseresidualeffectsonmarinefishwithintheProjectareaorvicinity(i.e.,MinasPassageandMinasBasin).Ingeneral,thisisduetotherelativelysmallscaleoftheproject,combinedwiththelimiteddurationandintermittentnatureoftheProjectactivities(AECOM2009).

Possibleinteractionscanoccuratdifferentspatialscalesrelativetothedevices,beginningwiththenear-field.ATISECdevicenearfieldinteractioncouldincludefishcollisions,bladestrikes,and/orpressure-induceddamagetofishresultingfromdevicecavitation.Theseeventsaredifficulttocaptureinrealtime,especiallyinthefield.TherearenofieldstudieswhereobservationofTISECdevicebladestrikehasbeenrecordedbuttherearelaboratorystudiesthathavedocumentedsuchinteractions(Amaraletal.2015).ForthepurposesofthisEEMP,nearfieldinteractionssuchasbladestrikesandcollisionsareassumedtobethesubjectofmonitoringbythedeviceproponents.

Beforeattemptingtoanswerthequestionofwhetherornotthereareactualnearfieldphysicalinteractions(e.g.collisionsorbladestrikes)itisimportanttoaddressthelargerscalequestionofwhetherornotTISECdevicesaffectoverallfishuseofthewatercolumnatrangesfrom10-150mfromthedevice.Atthesedistancesandfarther(i.e.,themidfield),therearepossibleindirectlargescaleeffectsonfishuseofthewatercolumnduetothepresenceofTISECdevices.Forexample,doesfishdensitychangeanddoesfishverticaldistributionwithinthewatercolumnchangeduetothepresenceofaTISECdevice?TheFORCEprojectprovidesauniquesituationofdeployeddevicesandtheabilitytomonitorfishresponsesonthebasisofdensityanddepthdistribution.

Objectives3.2

ThegoalofthisEEMPistodescribeameansofquantifyingfishdistributionalchangesthatreflectbehaviouralresponsestothepresenceofadeployedTISECdevice.Theobjectivesofthisprogramareto:(1)testforindirecteffectsofTISECdevicesonwatercolumnfishdensity;(2)testforindirecteffectsofTISECdevicesonfishverticaldistribution;and(3)estimateprobabilityoffishencounteringadevicebasedonfishdensityproportionsinthewatercolumnrelativetoTISECdevicedepthinthewatercolumn.Theseobjectiveswillbemetusingestablisheddown-lookinghydroacousticmonitoringtechniques,Before-After-Control-Impact(BACI)studydesign,multivariateanalysis(HotellingsT2tests)offishverticaldistributions,andanencounterprobabilitymodel.

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MonitoredVariables3.3

FishDensity:Down-lookinghydroacousticsprovidesrawdatathatcanbeusedtocalculatefishdensitybyscalingmeanvolumebackscatter(Sv)bytheaveragescatteringcrosssection(σbs)oraveragingfishtrackspersampledvolume.Thisvariableisusedtorepresentfishconcentration.

FishVerticalDistribution:Thisvariableisestimatedbydividingthewatercolumnintoequaldepthbins(e.g.1m)andcalculatingtheproportionoffishdensityforeachbin.Thisvariableisusedtorepresentfishdistributionwithinthewatercolumn.

Toaddressthefirstobjective,indirecteffectsofaTISECdeviceonmonthlyfishdensityestimates(themeasuredparameter)willbecomparedusingaBefore-After-Control-Impact(BACI)design.The"before"componentmustbeestimatedfrompreviouslycollecteddatafromMelvinandCochrane(2014).The"after"componentwillbeestimatedfromdown-lookinghydroacousticssurveysfollowingthemethodsdescribedinMethodologybelow.ThiswillprovideastatisticallydefinedchangeinthedensityoffishattheFORCECLAafterdevicesaredeployed,providedthereissuchaneffect.Acontrolwillbeusedtoaccountforpotentialannualvariabilityinfishdensityestimates(Smith2002).ThiswillinformFORCEofanydifferenceinconcentrationbeforeandafterdeviceinstallationwhileaccountingforinter-annualvariability5.

Toaddressthesecondobjective,indirecteffectsofaTISECdeviceonmonthlyverticalfishdistributionsbasedon1mdepthbinsmeasuredupfromtheseafloorwillbecomparedusingaBefore-After-Control-Impact(BACI)design.Thisprovidesfishverticaldistributionby1mincrements(themeasuredparameter).The"before"componentofthestudywillusethedatasetfromMelvinandCochrane(2014).The"after"componentwillbeestimatedfromdown-lookinghydroacousticssurveydataasdescribedinMethodologybelow.Thiswillprovideastatisticallydefinedchangeinuseofthewatercolumn(verticaldistribution)byfishinthemid-fieldattheFORCECLArelativetoacontrolsite,ifinfactthereissuchaneffect(Stainesetal.submittedtoEuropeanWaveandTidalEnergyConference(EWTEC)2015).ThisinturnwillinformFORCEofanychangeinfishverticaldistributionbeforeandafterdeviceinstallationandwillaccountforinter-annualvariabilitywithcontrolsitecomparisons.

Toaddressthethirdobjective,indirecteffectsoffishwatercolumnuseatthedepthofadeployedTISECdevicewillbeassessedusinganencounterprobabilitymodel.Theprobabilitythatfishwillencounteradeployeddeviceisestimatedfromtwocomponents:1)theproportionoffishbeingatthedevicedepthwhenthedeviceabsent;and2)theproportionoffishbeingatthedevicedepthwhenthedeviceispresent.Theproductofthesetwoestimateswillprovideaprobabilityoffishencounter(Figure3-1).

5Intheirreviewofthisprogram,DFOnotesthattheproposeduseofXandYtransectsis“inadequate”sincefishabundancemid-channelmaynotbewellcorrelatedwithfishabundanceinthenorthendofthegridwheretheturbineswillbedeployed.FORCErecognizesthismaybethecasebutwillproceedontheassumptionthatfishdistributionisrelativelyuniformthroughtheCLA.Monitoringdatacollectedbythisandotherprogramsovertimeshouldhelpdemonstratefishdistribution.

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Figure3-1.DisplayofpartofthewatercolumnofatheoreticallyplannedsiteforTISECdeviceinstallation.Thedashedlinesrepresentthedepthinthewatercolumnofinterestbecauseitiswherethedeviceislocatedandwherepotentialfishinteractionswilloccur.(A)representsthewatercolumnpriortodeviceinstallationandprovidestheparameteroffishproportionbeforeinstallation.(B)representsthewatercolumnafterdeviceinstallationandprovidestheparameteroffishproportionafterinstallation.

Methodology3.4

3.4.1 BoatPlatformandAcousticSurveySystem

Previousmobile,down-lookinghydroacousticsurveyswereperformedusedan18.6msterntrawler(FORCE2015)anda15.4mpassengervessel(MelvinandCochrane2014).ThisEEMPproposestheuseofsimilarsizedvesselsbasedontheprevioussuccessofthesetwosurveys.

A120kHzechosoundersystemconsistingofatransceiverandlaptopcomputerhousedinsidetheboatcabinandtransducerthatispolemountedononesideoftheboatisproposed.Thetransducerwillbemounteddeeperthantheboathulltopreventinterferencewiththekeel.Thetransducerwillbemountedusingapoledesignattachedtothegunwale.AGPSunitwillbeusedtoprovideNationalMarineElectronicsAssociation(NMEA)serialstringdatatoalaptopcomputer.ForcomparabilitytotheMelvinandCochrane(2014)dataset,apingrateof1s-1isproposed.ProperinstrumentcalibrationpriortoeachsurveyisrecommendedaccordingtoFooteetal.(1987).

3.4.2 SurveyDescription

TheFORCECLAsurveyswillconsistof9paralleltransectsspaced100mapart(Table3-1).Eachtransectisapproximately1.8kmlong.Transectsarenumbered0-8startingnearesttoshore.TheparalleltransectswithintheFORCECLAwillbefollowedbythreecontroltransectsthatstartattheeasterlyendoftransect8.TransectY1isacrosstheChannel,andtheboatwilltakeasouthwestbearingacrosstheChannelfromtheeasterlyendoftransect8towardtheoppositeshoreuntilapproximately30mdepthisreached.FromheretransectX1willfollowthe30mcontoureasttothestartoftransectY2which

A B

Proportionoffishbeforeinstallation Proportionoffishafterinstallation

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parallelsY1backacrossthechannelgoingnorthandendingatthewesterlyendoftransect0(Figure3-2).Thissurveydesignisrepeateduntilslacktidetime.

Surveyswillbeperformed,totheextentpossibleatspeedsbetweenfiveandtenknots,althoughspeedsupto12knotsareconsistentwithMelvinandCochrane(2014).

Table3-1.LatitudeandlongitudeindecimaldegreesforproposedMinasChanneltransectsfordown-lookinghydroacousticsurveys.Transectswithanasteriskareforcontrolsamples.ThesetransectlocationsaresimilartoMelvinandCochrane(2014)butareslightlylongerinlengthtoencompassallberthsiteswithintheFORCECLA.

Along-ChannelTransects WestEnd EastEnd Lat Lon Lat Lon0 45.3725 -64.4409 45.3674 -64.41841 45.3717 -64.4414 45.3666 -64.41892 45.3709 -64.4419 45.3657 -64.41933 45.3701 -64.4424 45.3649 -64.41994 45.3692 -64.4430 45.3640 -64.42035 45.3684 -64.4435 45.3631 -64.42076 45.3676 -64.4439 45.3622 -64.42127 45.3667 -64.4444 45.3613 -64.42168 45.3658 -64.4449 45.3605 -64.4221X1* 45.3378 -64.4594 45.3330 -64.4364Across-ChannelTransects NorthEnd Southend Lat Lon Lat LonY1* 45.3658 -64.4449 45.3378 -64.4594Y2* 45.3674 -64.4184 45.3330 -64.4364

Figure3-2.LeftMapshowingapproximatelocationsofalltransectsfordown-lookinghydroacousticsurvey.ReproducedfromMelvinandCochrane(2014);andRight-GoogleEarthviewofMinasPassageshowingproposedsurveytransectlocations,FORCECLA,andTISECdeviceberthsitesA,B,andC.ThegreenrectangleistheFORCECrownLeaseArea.

Y1 Y2

X1

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3.4.3 Schedule

ForthesakeofcomparabilitywiththeMelvinandCochrane(2014)dataset,thisEEMPproposessamplingduringthesamemonthsonneaptides6aswasdonebyMelvinandCochrane(2014):sixsurveyeventsdistributedoversixdifferentmonths.ThemonthsofMay,June,August,September,October,andNovemberwillmatchwiththe2011-12dataset.

NosurveysareproposedforDecemberthroughAprilsincethesemonthslikelycoincidewiththelowestwatertemperaturesandlowestfishbiomass(Viehmanetal.2015;MelvinandCochrane2014).Julyisnotsurveyedbecausethismonthwasalsoskippedinthepreviousstudy.Table3-2listsproposed2016samplingdatesbasedondatesthatcoincidewithneaptides.ThesesamplingdatesmaycapturetheimmigrationandemigrationofmigratoryfishspeciesthatoccurinMinasPassageandMinasBasin.Residentfishspeciesandthoselifestagesofmigratoryspeciesthatusetheprojectareawillalsobecapturedinthesesurveys.

Table3-2.Proposed2016SamplingDatesCoincidingwithNeapTides.StartTimes=HighTideTimes.

Survey Startdate StarttimeADT

1 16May2016 9:28am

2 14June2016 8:49am

3 12August2016 8:20am

4 11September2016 8:38am

5 8October2016 6:14am

6 7November2016 5:35am

Eachsurveyeventwillconsistofafulltidalanddielcycleandthereforelast25hours.Thiscanbebrokenupintofourseparateshiftseacharound6hours.Timebetweentideswhentheflowisdecreasedcanbeusedtochangecrewsandmaintainequipment.Allsurveysshouldbeginonahightidetoensurethattheboatcanmanageentryandexitfromport.Surveyingwillbelimitedtocalmseadaysandifpossible,whenwindislessthan10knotsforsafetyandtomaximizedataquality.

TheEEMPproposesextendingthisstudyforfiveyearsinanattempttocapturemultipledeploymentsthatareplannedintheFORCECLA.Thefirstplannedinstallationwillbetwoopencentreturbinesin2016.

ExtendingthismonitoringprogramoverfiveyearswillimprovetheabilitytodeterminepotentialeffectsonfishuseinandaroundtheFORCECLAintwoways.First,itisimperativetocapturefuturedevicedeploymentstoaddressnotonlypotentialeffectsrelatedtoindividualdevicetypesbutalsotoassesscumulativeeffectsfrommultipledevicesoperatingatthesametime.Second,long-termstudieshaveahigherprobabilityofsuccessbecausetheyarelesslikelytomistakesingle,novelecologicaleventsas

6Thesurveycanbeperformedduringbothneapandspringtidesbutifdataqualityispoorenoughtoprecludeitscollectionduringacertaintidalphasethenitwouldbeadvisabletoavoidthistime.

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representative.Theexistenceofaneffectorlackthereofforseveralyearsofsurveyeddataisstrongerevidencewhencomparedtoasingleyear'sdata.Inotherwords,ifthereisevidenceofatrendforseveralyearsasopposedtoasingleyearthenthattrendislesslikelytohaveoccurredbychancealone.Additionally,long-termdatasetshavetheoptionoftimeseriesanalysisthatcanshowlongtermtrendsandprovideevidenceforforecasting.

EMACsuggeststestingthedownwardlookinghydroacousticprogramassoonaspossible,i.e.priortoturbinedeployment.This‘testrun’willidentifylogisticalissuesandpromoteafamiliaritywiththeinstrumentation,collectionmethodologyanddifficultworkingconditions.

3.4.4 DataProcessing

ThesurveysinMinasPassagewilllikelyhaveamajormanualprocessingcomponenttoseparatethelargeamountsofentrainedairparticulartothisarea.Anestablishedmethodforaddressingentrainedairatthesurfaceistoeliminateacertainamountofwaterdepthfromprocessingandanalysis(e.g.theupper10m)(Viehmanetal.2015).SomeresearchershavehadsuccessremovingentrainedairusingSchoolsDetectionmodulealgorithmsinEchoviewsoftware.

Additionally,whenutilizingsubjectivemanualprocessingtechniques,itisimportanttoincludeaqualityassurance(QA)andqualitycontrol(QC)protocol.Ideally,thequalityassurancecomponentisanadditionalpersonwithhydroacousticsdataprocessingexperiencetotakeasubsampleofprocesseddataandreprocessittocomparetotheresultsofthefirstperson'soutcome.Agoodmethodforqualitycontrolistofindoutliersinthefinalfishdensityestimatesandreferencethemtotheprocesseddatafiles.Oftentimesanoisespikeorothersourceofsignalcontaminationismissedduringmanualprocessingandisthereforeincludedinthefishdensityestimate.TherearenumerousotheravenuesforQA/QCandanythattheresearchershaveconfidenceinshouldbeused.

Hydroacousticsdatacanbeprocessedtoprovidedensityasametric.Fishdensitycanbecalculatedbyscalingthemeanvolumebackscatter(Sv)bytheaveragebackscattercrosssection(σbs)forasampledvolumeofwaterorbydeterminingthenumberofindividualfishtracksforasampledvolumeofwater.Additionally,usingjust(Sv)asametricisalsoeffective(Viehmanetal.2015).UsingSvaloneprovidesbiomassorrelativedensityasametricinsteadofdensity.ForObjective1,Svwillsufficeasametricfortheproposedanalysis.However,forObjectives2and3,researcherswillneedtouseareabackscattercoefficient(Sa)asametricfortheproposedanalyses(Stainesetal.2015).Researcherswithhydroacousticsexperiencewillhaveknowledgeofallofthesemetricsandtheirapplications.

Basedontheobjectivesofthisprogram,fishdensitywillneedtobeintwoseparateformsfortheproposedanalyses.First,overallfishdensityestimatesfor30or60minutetimeintervalsforthewatercolumnarerequiredforthefirstobjectiveofdeterminingseasonalfishdensityattheFORCECLA(hereafterreferredtoastheimpactsite)andcontrolsites.Second,fishdensityestimatesfor30or60minutetimeintervalsdividedinto1mdepthbinsforthewatercolumnarerequiredforthesecondobjectiveofdeterminingseasonalfishverticaldistributionattheimpactsiteandcontrolsites(Viehmanetal.2015).Objective1usesoverallfishdensityofthewatercolumnandobjectives2and3usefishdensityin1mdepthbins.

3.4.5 DataAnalysis

AnalysisforObjective1wouldinvolvea2-wayanalysisofvariance(ANOVA)basedonabefore-after-control-impact(BACI)experimentaldesign(Smith2002).The"before"componentwillbeapreviousdatasetcollectedbyMelvinandCochrane(2014)thattheaforementionedsurveymethodsarebased

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on.The"after"componentofthestudycouldpotentiallybeanyyearofsurveysafterTISECdeviceshavebeendeployed.The"control"componentistakenfromthexandytransectsofthesurveydesignwhilethe"impact"componentistakenfromtheparalleltransectsnumbered0-8.Theresultsofa2-wayANOVAanalysiswillprovideaneffectforthebefore/aftercomponent,thecontrol/impactcomponent,andtheinteractionofthetwo.AsignificantinteractioneffectisevidenceoftherebeinganeffectofaTISECdeviceonoverallfishdensityattheimpactsite(Stainesetal.2015).

AnalysisforObjective2shouldincludeusingHotellingsT2permutationteststocomparethedifferencebetweenthefishverticaldistributiondensitiesofcomplimentarymonthsofthe"before"surveytothe"after"surveysforboththecontrolandimpactsites.Forexample,inthe"before"surveyofMelvinandCochrane(2014),themonthofMayin2012wassampled.Assumethereisan"after"surveyperformedinthemonthofMayin2016afterTISECdevicesarepresent.BothoftheseMaysampleswouldbecomplementaryandwouldbetestedfordifferences.Thecomplementarypairfortheimpactsitetransectswouldbetestedandthecomplementarypairforthecontroltransectswouldbetested.Ifboththeimpactsiteandcontrolsitehadnon-significanttestresultsorbothhadsignificanttestresultsthenthatwouldindicatenoevidenceforeffectsfromTISECdevicepresence.However,ifonlyoneortheotherofthecontrolorimpactsitehasasignificanttestresultthenthiswouldindicatepossibleevidenceforTISECdeviceeffectsonfishverticaldistribution.

AnalysisforObjective3willinvolvere-analysisoffishverticaldistributiondatausedinanalysisofObjective2.DeterminingtheprobabilityofencounteroffishwithTISECdevicesattheimpactsitewillrequireseveraldatainputsthatwillallbeavailableafterdeviceinstallationanddown-lookinghydroacousticsurveyshavebeencompleted.ThefirstinputrequiredisthedepthofaparticulardeployedTISECdevice.Knowledgeofthisdepthisimportantbecausethisiswhereexpectedinteractionwilllikelyoccurwithfishmovingintotheimpactsite.Theprobabilitythatfishwouldencounterthedeployeddeviceisestimatedusingtwoprobabilities:1)theprobabilityoffishbeingatthedevicedepthwhenthedeviceisnotpresentattheimpactsite(p1);and2)theprobabilityoffishbeingatthedevicedepthwhenthedeviceispresent(p2).Thereforetheprobabilityoffishencounteringthedevicecanbecalculatedas:

p=p1*p2

Notethattheprobability(p1)offishbeingatthedevicedepthcanbedeterminedfromtheMelvinandCochrane(2015)datasetsincemostofthesedatawerecollectedattheimpactsitewhennodevicewaspresent.Infact,thiswouldbethebestestimateofp1.Usingthecontrolsitetodeterminep1assumesthatthecontrolsiteissimilartotheimpactsite.IfthecontrolsiteistobeusedtodeterminetheprobabilityofencounteritshouldbetestedforpotentialdifferenceswiththeFORCECLA.Thesemethodswouldbestbeundertakenin2017or2018aftersite-specificdatahavebeencollectedandsamplesizesareadequateforconfidentestimates.

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SECTION4:MARINEMAMMALS4.0

Introduction4.1

ManyoftheimpactsofTISECdevelopmentsarelikelytobethesameasthoseassociatedwithmoreestablishedmarineindustries,suchasoilandgasexploration,constructionandextraction.However,thereareanumberofpotentialimpactsthatarespecifictothesenewtechnologies.Theseinclude,forexample:

a)deterrenteffectsofnoiseassociatedwithoperationalandinstallationactivities;

b)disruptionofcommunicationasaresultofincreasedunderwaternoise;

c)indirecteffectsthroughchangesinpreydistributionandabundance;and

d)directcollisionorphysicaldynamicinteractionwithTISECdevices.

IndividualTISECdeviceshavearelativelysmallphysicalfootprintsoitisunlikelythatthepresenceofsingledevicesorsmallarrayswillposeasignificanthabitatexclusionriskatalevellikelytoresultinmeasureableimpacts.

Environmentaleffectsfromcontinuousnoisesourcesarerelatedtosoundintensity,signaltonoiseratios,spectralfrequencyandtheexposureperiod,butalsocontextualfactorslikethenoveltyofthesoundsource(Southalletal.2007;Ellisonetal.2012).Harbourporpoise(Phocoenaphocoena),thekeymarinemammalspeciesinMinasPassage,usehighfrequencyecholocationclickstohuntandcommunicate(Kasteleinetal.2002)andareknowntobeverysusceptibletopulsednoisedisturbance(Tougaardetal.2009),butfewstudieshavefocusedonexposuretocontinuous(non-pulsed)periodsoflowfrequencynoisesourcessuchasthoseemittedbytidalturbines.

EEMPContext4.2

BaselinedatacollectedtodatecoupledwithhistoricalinformationindicatesthatonlyonemarinemammalspeciesispresentinsufficientnumberstotestEA-relateddistributionoravoidancepredictions,namelyHarbourporpoise.Lowsightingratesofharbourandgreyseals,white-sideddolphinsandsporadicsightingsoflargerwhales(mainlylong-finpilot,minkeandhumpbackwhale)resultinalackofstatisticalpowertorobustlyassesschangeinabundanceordistributionsorindeedavoidancebythesespecies,evenifcurrentbaselinemonitoringstudieswerecontinuedorexpanded.

RecognizingthatonlyasmallportionoftheBayofFundyHarbourporpoisepopulationutilizesMinasPassage,thisEEMPfocusesonthemoreobtainable‘sub-population’levelEApredictions.TheoverallgoalistoassesschangeinmidfieldareausebyHarbourporpoise,includingpermanentorlargescaleavoidance/attractionoftheFORCECLAandsurroundingmidfieldstudyarea.

MarinemammalEApredictionsweredevelopedforaminimumofonegeneration.ForHarbourporpoise,thisisconsideredtobesevenyears,therebyrequiringanEEMPthatextendsoverthisperiod.Logically,monitoringstudiescanbestaggeredtoallowtimeforsitedevelopmentofmultipleturbinesandlong-termoperationsinordertomaximizethevalueoftheEEMP.

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Effortwillbedirectedtowardsgatheringmonitoringdatainthenearandmidfieldaroundindividualturbines.Givensafetyconsiderationsnearoperationalturbines,immediatenearfieldmonitoring(consideredtobewithin100m)isbestundertakenbydeviceowners,ratherthanthroughthedeploymentofmoveableequipmentfromsurfacebyindependentmonitoringentities.

TheproposedfocusofthemarinemammalEEMPistoassesslong-termeffectsoftwokeystressorsonHarbourporpoise:

1) Directeffectsofoperationalturbinenoise.Specifically,Harbourporpoisesmayrespondtotheacousticstressorsthroughattractionoravoidance.

2) Indirecteffectsduetochangesinpreydistributionandabundance.Duetodynamicinteractions,preyaggregationsornear-fieldavoidancebyfishduetoacousticeffects,Harbourporpoisemayrespondtolocalstudyareascalepreyaggregationsthroughattractionoravoidance.

Theassessmentofbothdirectandindirectstressorsisachievableconcurrently,asbotharepotentiallymonitoredthroughrelativechangesinporpoiseactivityandrelativesiteuse.

TurbinedeploymentattheFORCECLAisanincrementalprocessthatwilloccuroveranumberofyears.ThisEEMPproposalhasassumedthattwoturbineswillbedeployedatBerthDin2016,withdeploymentofadditional(anddifferent)turbinesintheotherberthsoccurringinsubsequentyears.

EEMPObjectives4.3

TheprimaryobjectivesofthemarinemammalEEMParetoassessthefollowingeffects:

1) Permanentavoidanceofthemidfieldstudyareaduringturbineoperations.

2) Changeinthedistributionofaportionofthepopulation,specificallylargescale(~50%)decreasesorincreasesinrelativeoccurrence(echolocationactivitylevels)acrossthemidfieldstudyarea.

ThesecondaryobjectivesofthemarinemammalEEMPareto;

1) MonitortheregionalfrequencyofstrandedcarcassesinconjunctionwiththeMarineAnimalResponseSociety(MARS)programandassesscauseofdeathwherepossibleandmaintainanadaptivemanagementapproachtonewinformationoncollisionriskandfromC-PODmonitoringstudies.

2) ProviderecommendationsonthepotentialapplicationsfortheFORCEFASTPlatformandpotentialresearchthemesthatwouldincreasescientificunderstandingofthescaleofturbine-marinemammalinteractions.

TheseobjectivesareslightlyreducedfromthosedescribedintheConsultant’sReport.Uponfurtherdiscussionwiththereportauthors,itwasdecidedtowaitfortheresultsofstudiescurrentlyunderwaybeforedecidingiftheuseofthepassiveacousticAMARisjustifiedinMinasPassage.Similarly,theyear1programwillnowbeundertakenpost-turbinedeploymentandsoithasbeenreducedfromfiveCPODs(whichwereproposedtocollectadditionalbutnon-criticalbaselinedata)tothreeCPODs(todetectbehaviouralchangesrelatedtoturbinepresence).

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Methodology4.4

ThisEEMPproposesthecontinueduseofC-PODs(housedinSUB-buoys)whichareconsideredsufficienttodetectavoidanceandlargescalechangesin“midfieldrelativeoccurrence”(specificallyviamonitoringlong-termratesofecholocationactivity).TheEEMPhasahighprobabilityofsuccessatdetectingavoidanceandamoderate-highprobabilityofsuccessindetectingchangesinmidfieldoccurrenceratesexceeding50%.

Ataminimum,theEEMPproposesmidfieldareamonitoringusingC-PODsat2standardizedreferencesitesinyears1,3and7(Figure4-1),butthismonitoringintensityisadaptivebeyondyear3(i.e.,afterthis‘Phase1’datahasbeenanalysed).Inaddition,oneC-PODwillbeassignedtoeachberthastheturbinesaredeployedandwillmonitoreachberthat100-150mdistanceforfixedperiodsoftime.AllC-PODsaredeployedforthreemonthsinthespring,retrievedanddeployedagainforthreemonthsinthefalltocaptureperiodsofpeakseasonaloccurrenceidentifiedin2011-2014(Porskampetal.2015).

Inadditiontothesedeployments,theEEMPproposesathree-yearcollationofstrandedmarinemammalreportsthroughco-ordinationwithNovaScotiaMarineAnimalResponseSociety(MARS).AdetailedrationaleandmethodologyaredetailedbelowandalsosummarizedinTables4-1&4-2.Insummary,foreachyeartheproposedEEMPplansto:

Year1(2016):

a) Deploy2calibratedC-PODsattwoofthefiveavailablemidfieldreferencesites(Figure4-1)inspringandfalltoprovideanimprovedporpoiseoccurrencebaselinedatasetatmultiplesitesinthespring,aswellasacomparative‘after’datasetfollowingturbinedeploymentatBerthD.

b) Deploy1calibratedC-PODwithin100-150mofBerthD(Figure4-1)infalltoprovideaberth-focusedmidfieldporpoiseoccurrencedataset(assumessummer-fall2016turbinedeploymentinBerthD).

c) Initiatelong-termcollaborationwithNovaScotiaMarineAnimalResponseSocietyandlocalveterinarypathologist.Assessifdynamicinteractionadaptivemanagementtriggershavebeenreached(seeTable4-2).

d) AssessmidfieldareaC-PODdatatodetermineifadaptivemanagementtriggers(avoidanceorlargescalereductioninactivity)havebeenreached(SeeTable4-2).

Year2(2017):

a) Deploy1calibratedC-PODwithin100-150mofBerthD(Figure4-1)inspringtoprovideafocusednear-fieldturbineporpoiseactivitydata-set.

b) Deploy1calibratedC-PODwithin100-150mofBerthBandeachofBerthsAandC(ifoccupied)infalltoprovideaberth-focusedmidfieldporpoiseactivitydata-set(assumessummer2017turbinedeployments).

c) ContinuecollaborationwithNovaScotiaMarineAnimalResponseSociety.Assessifdynamicinteractionadaptivemanagementtriggershavebeenreached.

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d) AssessmidfieldC-PODdatatodetermineifadaptivemanagementtriggers(avoidanceorlargescalereductioninactivity)havebeenreached.

Year3(2018):

a) Deploy5calibratedC-PODsat5midfieldareareferencesites(Figure4-1)inspringandfalltoprovide‘after’porpoiseactivitybaselinedata-set.IdenticalC-PODswouldbelocatedatthesamesitesasinyear1.ExactsiteslocationsforWest1andEast1shouldconsiderfinalturbineandnear-fieldC-PODplacementlocationsandassociatedcablings,aimingtodeploy>400mawayinsimilarwaterdepth.

b) Deploy1calibratedC-PODwithin100-150mofBerthBandA/C(Figure4-1)inspringtoprovideturbineberth-focusedmidfieldporpoiseactivitydata-set(assumessummer2017turbinedeployments).

c) Continuelong-termcollaborationwithNovaScotiaMarineAnimalResponseSociety.Assessifdynamicinteractionadaptivemanagementtriggershavebeenreached.

d) AssessmidfieldC-PODdatatodetermineifadaptivemanagementtriggers(avoidanceorlargescalereductioninactivity)havebeenreached.

Years4-6(2019-2021):

a) Monitoringintensityandmethodsdependentonresultsfromyears1-3andfromotherTISECprojectsworldwide(e.g.,adaptivemanagementapproach).

Year7(2022):

a) Deploy5calibratedC-PODsat5midfieldreferencesites(Figure4-1)inspringandfalltoprovide‘after’porpoiseactivitydata-setattimescaleofoneporpoisegeneration.IdenticalC-PODswouldbelocatedatthesamesitesasinyear1.ExactsiteslocationsforWest1andEast1shouldconsiderfinalturbineandnear-fieldC-PODplacementlocationsandassociatedcablings,aimingtodeploy>400mawayinsimilarwaterdepth.

b) Assessiffurtherenvironmentaleffectsmonitoringrequired.

Asrecommended,FORCEwillassesstheapplicationofshorelinemammalcarcasssurveysasanadditionalmonitoringtoolandindicatorpotentialofmammalsstrikesbyaturbine.Carcassstrandingfrequenciesintheregionarebelievedtobelow,butdatafrompre-installationperiodsmaybeusefulincomparisonwithfrequenciespost-installation.Thismethodprovidesacost-effectivemeanstopotentiallydetectlethalcollisionsbyspeciesofconservationandpublicconcern,FORCEwillcontactMARSonaroutinebasistoobtainupdatesonanymammalsstrandingsormortalitiesreportedintheMinasChannelarea.

Inaddition,FORCEwillcontinuetopublicizeitsemergencyresponsenumber(1-888-850-4625)numbersothatanymariners,fishers,andgeneralpublicwhoobserveanyunusualoccurrencesintheareaofCLA(i.e.,usualseabirdactivity,fishkills,injuredordeadmarinemammals)canquicklyreportthisinformationtoFORCE.

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BaselineandEEMPsites

Rejectedbaselinesites

Legend

TurbineBerths(A-D)W2 E1W1

N1

S2

S1

E2

Figure4-1:Locationofpastbaseline(redandgreentriangles)andproposedEEMPC-PODmonitoringsitesinthemidfieldarea(redtriangles).

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Table4-1.SummaryofProposedEEMPsMethodologyPhase/Duration MethodSummary Rationale/Reliability

Phase1:3years(2016-2018)Phase2:4years(2018-2021)DurationandscaledependentonPhase1results,notingasaminimumtoincludeyear7(2022),additionalC-PODdeploymentacrosslocalareaasperPhase1

C-PODcalibration:Pre-deploymentseachyear.C-PODGLMtrendanalysis:a) TwoC-PODsdeployedinthemidfieldstudyarea(red

symbolsinFigure4-1),onceinthespringandonceinthefallforthreemonthseachdeployment,2016,expandedto5C-PODsfor2018and2022ifwarrantedbynewdeployments.

b) OneC-PODdeployed>100mfromBerthDandone>100mfromanyotheroccupiedBerth,onceinthespringandonceinthefallforthreemonthseachdeployment,2016,2017&2018asnecessary.

Strandingprogram:Co-ordinationwithNovaScotiaMarineAnimalResponseSociety,initially2016,2017&2018.

• Avoidanceeffectsandlargescalereductions/increasesinrelativeusebyporpoisesisdetectable,

• C-PODdeployments(housedinSUB-buoys)providecomparablebefore-afterdata,

• Intermittentannualcoveragebutcoverskeytimeperiods,

• BaselinereferencesitesatEast2andNorth1excludedasconsideredsub-optimal.

• Adequateareacoverage,butlow-moderateriskofC-PODfailureorloss

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Table4-2.BreakdownofProposedEEMPMethodologyandAdaptiveManagementOptions

Objective SummaryofMethodology Rationale ProbabilityofSuccessandChallenges

1)Detectchangeinberth-specificporpoiseprobabilityofoccurrence(echolocationactivity)

Variables:Changeinoccurrence(e.g.,GLMecholocationactivitytrendsinJulianDayandDay-NightDPM/10min).

Method:1C-PODdeployedsafely(100-150m)nexttoaminimumof3turbines(siteideallysouthofeachturbine).

Duration:2deploymentsApril15-July15andSeptember15-December15.

Otherconsiderations:CalibrationofnewC-PODsrequired.C-PODIDshouldbeconsistentacrosssites,oraimtomaintainconsistentsensitivity.

• Long-termC-PODbaselineoccurrencerateswithinFORCECLAshouldallowdetectionoflargechangesinactivity(occurrence)inthevicinityofeachberth.

• Goodsuccessindetectinglargescalechangesduetooperatingturbines,relatedtonumberofturbinesmonitored.

• Collaborationwithdeveloperrequired.• C-PODfailure/lossandnearturbinedeployment

potentialrisk

2)Detectchangeinporpoiseprobabilityofoccurrence(echolocationactivity)inthemidfieldarea

Variables:Changeinoccurrence(e.g.,GLMecholocationactivitytrendsinJulianDayandDay-NightDPM/10min).

Method:2-5C-PODsdeployedatkeymidfieldreferencesitesasin2011-2014gradientbaselinestudyarea(seeredsymbolsinFigure4-1).

Duration:2deploymentsinyears1and3.April15-July15andSeptember15-December15

Otherconsiderations:CalibrationofpreviouslyusedandnewC-PODsrequired.C-PODIDshouldbeconsistentacrosssites,oraimtomaintainconsistentsensitivity.

• Increasedbaselinestudyareacoverageinyear1.

• Long-termC-PODbaselineratesshouldallowdetectionoflargescalechangesinmidfieldactivity(occurrence).

• Year2gapinmonitoringprogramtopermitincreasedsitedevelopment.

• Goodsuccessindetectinglargescalechanges.• Lackofmonitoringinyear2reduceseffectsreporting

andprobabilityofdetectingeffect.• C-PODfailure/losspotentialrisk.• Assumesrobustbaselinecoverageachievedinyear1.• Considerationofturbinedeploymentlocationsand

cablinginplacementofC-PODSwithinFORCECLAinyears3and7.

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Objective SummaryofMethodology Rationale ProbabilityofSuccessandChallenges

3)Assessifanyincreaseinincidenceofmortalityeventsofmarinemammalsintheregioncanbeattributedtocollision

Variables:Frequencyofregionalcarcassstrandingsandcauseofdeathassessment.

MethodOpportunisticcollectionofstrandedmarinemammalsthroughco-ordinationwithNovaScotiaMarineAnimalResponseSociety.Pathologicalinterpretationofcauseofdeathofcarcass.

Duration:3years(continuous).

• Lowincidenceofstrandedmarinemammalstodate.

• Abilitytodetectunusualmortalityeventsiftheyoccur.

• Lowchanceofsuccess,dependingonpublicinvolvementandassumingpredictedlowlikelihoodofeventsoccurring.

• Inabilitytodeterminecauseofdeath(C.O.D.)isarisk.• Adaptivetriggersshouldideallybepre-definedif

C.O.D.identifiedasstrike.

4)Possibleadaptivemanagementtrigger1:Largescalechangeinporpoisenear-fieldoccurrence

ExtendC-PODmonitoringdurationbyoneyearandconsider2ndC-PODdeployment400mawayfromturbine.

• AdaptivemanagementtriggerbasedonPhase1analysiswithincreaseinmonitoringintensity

• Definitionofbiologicallymeaningful(large-scalechange)triggerpoint.

• Unknowncostofmonitoringplan.

5)Possibleadaptivemanagementtrigger2:Largescalechangeatmultiplesitesinporpoisestudyareaoccurrence

ExtendC-PODmonitoringdurationbyoneyearandconsiderenlargingstudyareacoveragefocussedonareaofchange

• AdaptivemanagementtriggerbasedonPhase1analysiswithincreaseinmonitoringintensity

• Definitionofbiologicallymeaningful(large-scalechange)triggerpoint.

• Unknowncostofmonitoringplan.

6)Possibleadaptivemanagementtrigger3:CODconsidered

EMAC/Regulatorreviewofinformationrequired.

Reviewefficacyandfuturedeploymentofcurrentlyavailablemonitoringsystems(includingAAM)toassessnear-fielddynamicinteractions.

• Adaptivemanagementtriggerifdynamicinteractionstressorriskidentified

• Definitionofbiologicallymeaningfultriggerpointandcurrentlevelsofacceptablerisk.

• Unknowncostofmonitoringplan.

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Objective SummaryofMethodology Rationale ProbabilityofSuccessandChallengesprobablestrikeon1endangeredspeciesorregulatordefinednumberofotherspecies

Consideruseofacousticalarmsdeployedonturbines(Wilsonetal.2013).

7)Possibleadaptivemanagementtrigger4:ExternalandrelevantEEMPstudiesprovideempiricalevidenceofsignificantrisktoporpoises(orotherkeymarinemammalsfoundinthestudyarea)

EMAC/Regulatorreviewofinformationrequired.

Acousticeffects:

ExtendC-PODstudyareamonitoringdurationandincreasecoverageofmidfieldstudyareaifwide-scaleeffectsdocumented.

Near-fielddynamiceffects:

Reviewefficacyandfuturedeploymentofcurrentlyavailablemonitoringsystems(includingAAM)toassessnear-fielddynamicinteractions.

Consideruseofacousticalarmsdeployedonturbines(Wilsonetal.2013).

• Adaptivemanagementtriggerifturbinestressorriskidentifiedandriskconsideredsignificant

• Definitionofbiologicallymeaningfultriggerpointandcurrentlevelsofacceptablerisk.

• Issuesidentifiedinotherstudiesmaybesitespecificorturbinespecific.

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SECTION5:ACOUSTICS(MARINENOISE)5.0

Introduction5.1

Ithasbeenestablishedthatunderwaternoisemayaffectcertainbenthicorganisms,fish,cetaceansandothermarinemammals,althoughthetypeandintensityofnoisegeneratedbythedifferenttidalenergydevicesisnotwellunderstood(Cadaetal.2007).Thisisduetothelackofin-wateroperatinghoursonmostdevicesandarelatedlackofconcentratedefforttodeterminetheiracousticcharacteristics.Thenoisegeneratedbyagivendevicehasthepotentialtoinducebehaviouralchangesonmarinewildlifeinthenear-andmid-fieldmarineenvironment.

Marinemammalsandfish,particularlythosewithswimbladders,maybesensitivetoincreasednoiselevels(Table5-1).Fishrelyonsoundstocommunicate,forage,findamate,anddefendthemselves.Eggsandlarvaemaybemoresusceptibletonoisesourcessincetheyhavenoavoidancecapabilities(Degraeretal.2013).

Table5-1:NoiseSensitivitiesofSelectMarineBiota

Organism NoiseThreshold Source

Fish

•192dB(1μPa)–transientstunning;

•200dB(1μPa)–internalinjuries;

•220dB(1μPa)–egg/larvaldamage

•230–240dB(1μPa)–fishmortality

TurnpennyandNedwell1994

Harbourporpoise Avoidancedisplayedatnoiselevelsexceeding140dBre1µPa(broadband)

Southalletal2007

CetaceansandPinnipeds

120dB(re1μPa)isconsideredLevelBharassmentundertheUSFederalMarineMammalProtectionAct

PUD2012

Lobsters NoneNERC2013

PUD2012

Seabirds Nodata

RPS2011

LeopoldandImares2009.

TurnpennyandNedwell1994

ThetidalturbinesproposedforinstallationattheFORCEdemonstrationsitehavelarge,movingpartsandwillnaturallygeneratenoise.Additionalnoisewillbegeneratedduringinstallation,maintenanceandretrieval.Installationinparticularpresentsthepossibilityofsignificant(buttemporary)noiselevelsduringtheplacementofgravitybasefoundations,mooringsandespeciallymonopiles(Degraeretal.

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2013).Whilenomonopilesareplannedatthistime,itispossiblethatsuchfoundationswillbeusedinthefuturedeploymentofarraysofcertainTISECdevices.

Withinthe2009EA,nospecificnoiselevelwasidentifiedasexcessiveorlikelytocausesignificantimpact.Instead,“significantimpacts”withrespecttonoisearedefinedinrelationtoavoidanceby,orinjuryto,marinebirds,marinemammals,benthosandfish(AECOM2009).Nevertheless,anEEMPtoaddressnoiseisrequiredasaconditionofprovincialandfederalapprovalofthe2009EA.TheapprovalrequiresthattheEEMP“identifyappropriateenvironmentaleffectsindicators…and…considerprojecteffectson(amongothersubjects)acoustics.”

Tocomparenoiselevelsbetweendevicesandpredicteffectsonmarinebiota,twocriticaldatasetsareneeded:(a)thespatialandtemporaldistributionofambientnoiseand(b)turbinedevicenoiselevels,oftenreferredtoasthedevice“noiseprofile”or“sourcelevels”.Theselevelscanbeassessedbyconductingmeasurementsofambientnoiseanddevicebroadbandandnarrowbandsourcelevels.Thedevicedeveloperswillbeprovidinginformationontheirdevicenoiseprofilesinordertocomparenoiselevelsbetweendevicesandpredicteffectsonmarinebiota.

AttheFORCEsiteitisimpracticaltomeasuresoundlevelsatalllocationsanddepths.Moreover,hydrophonesdeployedontheseabottommeasurenoiseatasingle,nearbottompoint,whichmaynotprovidesufficientinformationtocharacterisesoundconditionsatdepthsfrequentedbyfishandmarinemammals.Toovercometheselimitations,acousticmodellingcanbeusedoverthelongertermtopredictsoundlevelsatalllocations,whichinturnareverifiedbytargetedpointmeasurementsundertakentovalidatethemodelpredictions.

Noiseisparticularlyamenabletonumericalmodellinggivenadequatedatarelatedtophysicaloceanography,baselinenoiselevels,andturbineacousticcharacteristics.Acousticimpactmodelshavebeensuccessfullydevelopedatothermarineenergysitesandusedtoretirerisksassociatedwithnoise(Ward2014).

Whileitisnotanticipatedthatthenoisegeneratedbytheinitialdemonstration-typeturbinedeploymentsattheFORCEsitewillhavesignificantimpactonmarinebiotaduetotheirlimitedscale(AECOM2009),noisedatacollectedatthedemonstrationstagewillprovideinformationthatcanbeusedtopredicteffectsonmarinebiota,furtherrefinethefishandmarinemammalEEMPs,andsupportanacousticmodeloverthelongerterm.AfixedautonomousrecorderwithashelteredinternalhydrophoneasdevelopedbyMartinandVallarta(2012)appearsabletodifferentiateturbinesourcenoisefromambientsounds.TheAMARequippedSmallFASTPlatformcanalsopotentiallybeusedtocollectpre-andpost-deploymentnoisedata,althoughitsdeploymentscheduleandoverallresearchobjectiveshavenotyetbeenestablished.

Theprimarydatagapsrelatedtonoisearethelimitedambientnoisedatacollectedtodate,thelackofoperatingturbinesthatcanbesubjectedtonoiseassessment,anddevicespecific“noiseprofiles”thatmustbeprovidedbythedevicedevelopers.

Objectives5.2

Giventhepresentlackofturbine“sourcenoiseprofiles”foruseinanacousticmodel,andbasedonthesummarypresentedintheConsultant’sReport,additionalfieldresearchisneededtodefinethemostsuccessfulmodelingapproachandmonitoringinstrumentationforuseintheMinasPassage.

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SincetheConsultant’sReportwascompleted,theglobalperspectiveoncollectingnoisedatasuggeststhattheuseofdriftinghydrophonesisthepreferredapproach(Norrisetal.,2014).Incontrasttofixedinstrumentswherewaterflowingoverthemicrophonecombinedwiththemovementcobblesandpebblesalongtheseafloorcombinestocausesignificantnoisethatcanobscurethenoisefromturbines,driftinghydrophonesmovewiththecurrentandfloatabovetheseafloor.Thesecharacteristicspreventinterferencefromboththesoundofflowoverthehydrophoneandthesoundofrockmovementalongtheseafloor.

Overtheshortterm,thereisaneedto:

• Determinethemostappropriateacousticmodelandrelatedinputdatarequirements;

• Testdifferentinstrumentationcurrentlyunderdevelopmentbylocalacousticengineeringfirmsforbothdriftingandbottommounteddevices;

• Conductadriftinghydrophonetestsurvey;

• Testtheperformanceofoff-the-shelfacousticinstrumentsandnoiseshieldingtechniquesontheFORCE-ownedFASTplatformsinordertomorefullyestablishbaselineconditions.

• Usingoneormoreoftheinstrumentsaboveand/oradriftinghydrophoneapproach,collectadditionalnoisedatawiththeCLA;and

• UsethenoisedatatoeventuallyverifytheEApredictionsthatsuggestnoisefromoperationalturbineswillnotnegativelyaffectmarinebiota.

ForthepurposesofthisEEMP,weassumetheacousticcharacteristicsofspecificdevices,includingabsolutebroadbandandnarrowbandsourcelevelsacrosstheiroperatingrange,willbemeasuredordeterminedbythedeviceownersandthisinformationwillbesharedwithFORCE.

Methodology5.3

Ingeneral,adriftinghydrophonethatisacousticallyisolatedfromitsconveyancewillprovidebetterqualitydatathanahydrophonemooredontheseabedorrigidlyattachedtoastructuresuchasaturbine.Logistically,however,thedeploymentandcollectionofdriftinghydrophonesoverasufficienttimeperiodtoadequatelycharacterisetheacousticenvironmentishighlylabourintensiveandthismethodrequiresadditionalefforttoprocessmeasurements(Schmittetal.2015).Together,thesefactorscanmakedriftingprogramsdesignedtoestablishbaselineconditionsandfullycharacterisethenoiseprofileofanoperatingturbinemoreexpensivethanmooredprograms.Giventhis,mooredhydrophonesareinitiallyproposedinthisEEMPbutdriftinghydrophonesaresuggestedasalongertermmeanstoverifyandvalidatedatacollectedbyamooredsystem.

Ingeneral,locatingthehydrophoneclosetothedevicewillimprovethequalityofmeasurementsbyincreasingthemeasurementsignaltonoiseratioandsimplifyingrequirementsforacousticchannelmodelling.Safetyisthecriticalfactorindetermininghowcloseahydrophonecanbedeployedtoanoperatingturbine.Deploymentofafixedhydrophonewithin100mofanoperatingturbineisoptimal.Thisnear-fieldmonitoringwithin100moftheturbineistheresponsibilityoftheberthholder.

Inordertoachievetheobjectivesoutlinedabove,thefollowingactivitiesareproposed:

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Collectambientmarinenoisedata

• Deployastreamlinedmooredhydrophonesystem..Adeploymentperiodontheorderofonetotwomonthsshouldbeconsideredtocapturenoiseconditionsovermultipletidalcycles.

• Thereissomeevidencetosuggestthatshielded,streamlinedhydrophonesmayinfactunder-measurenoiseduetotheactualshieldingdesignedtoreduceextraneousflownoise.Todeterminetheaccuracyofsuchamooredsystem,simultaneousdriftinghydrophonemeasurementsmaybeundertakenbyFORCEforcomparisonanddatavalidation.Alternatively,thehydrophonecanbereplacedwithadriftingnoisesourceemittingatknownfrequencies.Theaccuracyandsensitivityofthemooredsystemcanthenbeverifiedbasedonthisnoisesource.

• ReviewdatacollectedfromhydrophonesmountedontheturbinessubmittedinthetheberthholderEEMPreportsandintegratethisdatawithfuturenoisemeasurementprogramsandmodels.

• Identifyanappropriateacousticmodeltoaccommodatethedatageneratedbythedifferentinstruments.

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SECTION6:MARINESEABIRDS6.0

Introduction6.1

TheEEMPformarinebirdshasbeendesignedwithreferencetobirdsurveyspreviouslyundertakenatthesite(FORCE2011;2014;2015),existingguidanceonsurveymethodsandmonitoringprogramsfortidalenergyprojectsthatarecurrentlybeingundertakenbothinCanadianandScottishwaters(seeRPS2010;JacksonandWhitfield2011andRobbins2012).Ultimatelyhoweveranadaptivemanagementapproachthatallowsfor“flexibledecisionmakingthatcanbeadjustedasoutcomesfrommanagementactionsandothereventsbecomebetterunderstood”isproposedforthisprogram(FORCE2015).

Objectives6.2

Todate,marinebirdstudiesatFORCEhavenotbeenundertakeninthepresenceofafunctioningtidalturbine;turbinesareproposedfordeploymentbeginningin2016.Thepotentialfordirectcollisionbymarinedivingbirdswithtidalenergydevices,orharmfuleffectscausedbytheirpresence,includingthepotentialfordisplacementofmarinewildlifefromhabitualwaters,aretheprimaryconsiderationsaddressedinthisEEMP.

ThemainobjectiveofthisEEMPistoobtainrobustsite-specificspeciesabundanceandbehaviourdatawhichcanbeusedtoestablishwhethertheinstallation,presenceandoperationoftidalenergydevicescausesdisplacementofsurface-visiblewildlifefromhabitualwaters,andtoidentifyanydiscerniblechangestowildlifebehaviour.

TheEEMPproposedhereextendspreviousmonitoringprogramsandaimsto:

• ObtainmoredatawithrespecttotheoccurrenceandmovementofbirdspeciesinthevicinityoftheProjectsitetoverifytheexistingfindingsofshoreandboatbasedsurveys;and

• Withintheboundsofthecurrentsurveyprotocols,confirmEApredictionsrelatedtotheavoidanceand/orattractionofbirdstovesselsandtidalturbines.

Methodology6.3

6.3.1 MonitoringApproach

Post-deploymentmonitoringstudiesattheFORCEsitewillaim,wherenecessary,tobemorefocusedthanthepre-constructionbaselinesurveysalreadydescribed.Thefocuswillbeonthosespeciesidentifiedinthepre-deploymentassessmentprocesstobeofconcernalthoughoverall,birddensitiesintheProjectareawerefoundtoberatherlowinthecontextofthebroaderspatialdistributionsofbirdswithintheBayofFundy.

Thecontinuingmonitoringprogramwillaimtoquantifythemagnitudeofanychangesandprovideevidencetodemonstratewhethersuchchanges,shouldtheyarise,canbeattributedtothetidalenergydevelopmentorwhethertheyhaveoccurredforotherreasons.

JacksonandWhitfield(2011)notethatpostdeploymentmonitoringstudiesshouldprovideinformationon:

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• Changestotheabundance,distributionorbehaviourofspeciesconsideredtobeofhighormediumconservationimportance;

• Theextenttowhichpredictedadverseeffectssuchasdisturbanceandcollisionmortalityarerealised;and

• Theextenttowhich,overtime,speciesaffectedbydisturbanceanddisplacementhabituatetothepresenceofadevelopment.

6.3.2 StudyDesign

Althoughthestudywillneedtoberepeatableyearonyear,adegreeofflexibilityisrequiredastheuseofasitebymarinebirdsisoftenhighlyvariableandthiscanmakeitdifficulttoattributechangestoaparticularcause(suchasasingleturbinedeploymentinthemarineenvironment).Ifscientificallyvalidconclusionsaretobedrawnconcerningtheeffectsofdevelopment,studydesignmusttakeintoaccountnaturalvariationandchangeduetoothercauses.Ifthisisnotdonethenthemonitoringresultsarelikelytobeoflittlevalueastheyarelikelytolackthepowertoeitherdetectchangeoridentifythecauses(JacksonandWhitfield2011).

Thepost-deploymentmonitoringstudywilltargetthedevelopmentsiteandtheappropriatenearbyareasalreadyidentifiedinthebaselinesurveys.Theinclusionofabufferaroundthemainsurveyareawillprovideinformationonthebirdsusingtheareaimmediatelysurroundingadevelopment.

Asthisprojectis‘near-shore’(<4km)and<5km2intotalarea,abufferofatleast1kmisproposed.

6.3.3 SamplingFrequency

Thetimingofshore-basedsurveyvisitswillbeplannedsothattheyareastemporallyrepresentativeaspossible,includingthethreemaintemporalcycles:timeofday,timeofyearandstateofthetide.Althoughtimeofdayisnotgenerallyregardedasacontrollingfactorformarinebirdsurveys,surveyworkwillasfaraspossiblebeevenlydistributedthroughthedayfromdawntoduskwheredaylighthoursallow.

Birdsurveysaregenerallyundertakenatmonthlyintervalsthroughouttheyear.Althoughthereisvariationbetweenspecies,manymarinebirdsfollowabroadlysimilarannualtimetablewithregardtobreeding,moulting,migrationandwintering.Therefore,thesurveytimetablecanreflectthis,dividingtheyearupintoperiodsbasedaroundthemainannualstages,resultinginasurveythatislessthanmonthlyinfrequency(Table6-1).

Table6-1:ExamplePeriodsforMarineBirdSurveys.

YearPeriod Description ApproximateDates

1 Midwinter JanuaryandFebruary

2 Latewinter FebruaryandMarch

3 Earlybreedingseason April–midMay

4 Midbreedingseason MidMay–midJune

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5 Latebreedingseason MidJune–endJuly

6 Postbreeding/moult AugusttomidSeptember

7 Autumn MidSeptember–October

8 Earlywinter NovemberandDecember

(source:JacksonandWhitfield2011).Note:surveycanbeginatanytimeoftheyearbutallsampleeventsshouldbecompleted.

ForthepostdeploymentseabirdEEMP,monitoringwillbeconductedthroughouttheyear,basedontheyearperiodsdescribedinTable8-2.TheannualprogramisshownonTable6-2.ThefullmethodologiesforshoreandboatbasedsurveysaregiveninFORCE(2011)andwillbecontinuedwhererelevantforconsistencyandrepeatability.

Thebroadersurveyareahasalreadybeencharacterisedintermsofthespatialabundanceofmarinebirds;thesedataaresufficienttoprovidethewidercontextualpictureoftheavifaunasurroundingthedeploymentsite.AssuchnofurtherboatsurveysareproposedatthisstageunlessitisrequiredthatsuchsurveysprovideacontinuouspictureofbirdabundanceanddistributionintheMinasChannel.

6.3.4 EEMPFieldSurveys

Asnotedabove,thecurrentobservationalmonitoringofmarineseabirdshasprovidedacomprehensivefour-year,pre-deploymentdatasetusingstandardizedfieldproceduresanddatainterpretationguidelines.However,noturbineshavesofarbeeninstalledforasufficienttimetomonitoritseffectsonmarineseabirds.TherecommendedEEMPbuildsonthisprogram.

Demonstration-scaletidalturbineswillbedeployedinphasesoverthenextfiveyearsorso.Giventhedifferingdesigns(andhencethepotentialfordifferingeffectsonmarineseabirds)theproposedEEMPisdesignedtobeflexibleandadaptivetodifferentturbineforms,deploymentschedulesandresultsfromearlystudies.

TheproposedEEMPbeginsoncethefirsttwobottom-mountedCapeSharpTidalVentureturbinesareinstalledin2016andextendsthrough2017whenadditionalturbinesareslatedforinstallation.TheEEMPwillseektorepeatandaugmenttheprevioussurveysundertakenbetween2009and2012butwillfocusonthedeploymentareamorespecifically.

6.3.5 ShoreBasedSurveys

Toaccountforthevariabilityinthetemporalspanofshorebasedsurveysbetween2009and2012itisproposedthatfuturepostdeploymentshorebasedsurveysarerepeatableandcarriedoutduringthesamemonthsonayearbyyearbasis.ThesurveyswillmonitortheFORCEProjectareaincludingtheFORCEtestsite,theareabetweenBlackRockandshore(insideBlackRock),andtheMinasPassagebeyondBlackRock(outsideBlackRock)asinpreviousyears.

Thepre-deploymentsurveyshaveidentifiedspecificperiodsofhighabundanceanddiversity(albeitbetweenyears)withsteadyincreasesinabundancefromSpringtoearlySummer(MarchtoJuly)withapeakinJune.AfteraperiodoflowtomoderateabundancebetweenJulyandOctobernumberspeakedagainintheFallinearlyNovemberwhenlocalpopulationsweresupplementedbymigratory

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movementsthroughthestudyarea.TherewerehoweverdatagapswithlittleinformationforthemonthsofJanuary,February,lateAugust,SeptemberandOctober.

TheEEMPshorebasedsurveyswillbefocussedduringtheperiodsgiveninTable6-1tocoverthewholeannualcyclegivingatotalof90hoursofobservation,orabout16daysannually(Table6-2).Table6-2:MarineSeabirdSurveyScheduleYearPeriod Month NumberofSurveys1 January 1(6hours)1-2 February 1(6hours)2 March 1(6hours)3 April 2(12hours)3-4 May 2(12hours)4-5 June 2(12hours)5 July 1(6hours)6 August 1(6hours)6-7 September 1(6hours)7 October 1(6hours)8 November 2(12hours)8 December 1(6hours)

Note:surveycanbeginatanytimeoftheyearbutallsampleeventsshouldbecompleted.Toensureconsistencywithpaststudiesandallowbefore-and-afterdeploymentdatasetcomparison,shore-basedsurveyswillbeundertakenfromapproximatelyhightidethroughthe6-hourperiodoftheoutgoingtide.ObservationprotocolswillmirrorthosedescribedinCWS(2007)andWilhelmetal.(2008)(updatedbyGjerdrumetal.2012)forconsistencywithpreviouswork.Inadditiontofollowingthemonitoringprotocolsreferencedabove,observerswillbeinstructedtorecordabnormalconcentrationsofseabirdssuggestiveoffishkillsthatmayhaveresultedfromturbineoperation.Itisrecommendedthatthesurveyorstakea30minutebreakafterthefirstthreehourperiodtohelppreventobserverfatigue.Thevantagepointlocationswillremainthesame.Tohelpdiscernchangesinbirdactivitythatmayberelatedtoturbinedeployment,theobserverswillrecordactivityandapproximatedistancesfromtheturbines(i.e.,a‘distancetoimpact’approach).

ApostdeploymenttidalsitemonitoringprogrammehasbeenunderwayattheEMECtidaltestsiteatFallofWarness,EdayintheOrkneyIslandsofScotland.Thesurveyeffortherehasbeenconsiderable,withsome909hoursoflandbasedobservationsundertakenoverthecourseofasingleyear.ThemethodhoweveristriedandtestedanditisprudenttocollectdataisasimilarfashionforthesakeofmaintainingarelativelystandardapproachtoEEMPsatsimilarprojects.Withaviewtoinforminganymodellingapproaches,itisrecommendedthatthebirdsurveymethodsadoptedbyEMEC(2013)areusedhere.

Thefollowinginformationwillberecordedforeveryseabirdsightingmadeduringthescans.Recordsshouldbelimitedtobirdsthatareonthewaterorthatarehoveringdirectlyaboveit(withinafewmetres),ensuringthatthegridsquaretothelocationonthewaterbelowhoveringbirdsisrecorded.Inthiscasethegridadoptedisa500mx500mgridtoensurethatsurveysarecarriedoutinaconsistentandmethodicalfashion,ensuringthewholestudyareaiscovered.

• DATEDateofthewatch.

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• TIMETimeofthesighting.• SIGHTINGEQUIPMENTTheequipmentusedtosightthebird(s).• GRIDSQUAREThegridsquaretowhichthesightingwasallocated.• NUMBEROFSPECIESAsbirdsoftenformmixedgroups,providethenumberofspecieswithineach

group.• SPECIESThespeciessighted.Asitisoftendifficulttodistinguishbirdstospecieslevels,theoptionis

giventoenter'Unidentified'.FurtherdetailscanbeprovidedintheCOMMENTSsection.• NUMBEREstimatedtotalnumberofbirds(regardlessofspecies)inthegroup.

Detailsofthefollowingbirdbehaviorsshouldalsoberecorded.Anycombinationofthemcanbeincluded.

• DIVINGFROMFLIGHTOneormorebirdsdivingunderwaterfromahoveringorflyingposition.• DIVINGFROMWATEROneormorebirdsdivingunderwaterfromapositiononthewatersurface.• SWIMMINGATSURFACEThebirdsaremakingprogressatthesurface.• STATIONARYATSURFACEThebirdsarestationaryatthesurface.• COMMENTSAnyotherrelevantinformationaboutthesightingshouldbeincludedhere.Thismay

includedetailssuchasarecordoftheageorsexclassesofthebirds(i.e.,ifthereareanyrelativelysmallanimalsinthegrouporiftherearepredominantlymalesorfemales),andinteractionswiththeturbines(resting,nesting,collisions,etc.).

6.3.6 DataAnalysis

Inprevioussurveyreportsi.e.FORCE(2011)marinebirddatahasbeenanalysedusingtwowayanalysesofvariance(ANOVA)thatconsideredthedifferenceinmarinebirdabundancebetweensitesandbetweenyearsusingdensityperkm2astheunitofmeasurement.Asimilarmethodisproposedtoassessanypotentialsitespecificeffects,ensuringthatwherecountdataarenotnormallydistributed(asislikely)thenthesedataareeithertransformedtonormalityoranequivalenttoolusedfornon-normallydistributeddata.SuchatoolmayincludeforexampleMood’smediantestoraKruskal-Wallistest.

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SECTION7:SUMMARY7.0

EEMPshavebeencreatedforfivesubjectareas,basedonworkconductedtodateandthelessonslearnedduringbaselinedatacollection.

1.Fish;

2.Lobster;

3.MarineBirds;

4.MarineMammals;and

5.Acoustics.

Table7-1tentativelyshowshoweachEEMPwouldbedeployedonayear-to-yearbasis.TheactualscheduleofeachEEMPwilldependonanumberoffactorsincludingweatherconditions,devicedeploymentschedule,vesselavailability,etc.

AsnotedintheIntroduction,theEEMPsaredesignedtobeflexibleandadaptivetotheTISECdeploymentschedules.Inkeepingwiththe“adaptivemanagement”approachusedsincethebeginningoftheFORCEproject,modificationstotheEEMPs(ifneeded)canbeimplementedoncethedeploymentscheduleisbetterknown.Asmoreturbinesaredeployed,actualimpactsmaydifferfromimpactsmeasuredatsingledevicesandtheEEMPscanbeadjustedtoaccountforthis.

FORCE’sexperienceinMinasPassagehasdemonstratedhowchallengingitcanbetoundertakeworkinthishighenergyenvironment.Pastworkhasalsohighlightedlimitationstoequipmenttypesandmonitoringapproaches,andhasdemonstratedwhereadditionalexplorationisneeded.TheEEMPsprovideaninitial,systematicapproachtodetectingenvironmentalchangesthatcanbeattributedtotheturbines.TheresultsofthesestudiescanbeusedbyFORCE,theirEMAC,thegeneralpublic,regulatorsandtheberthholderstofirstmeasureandthenassessthelikelyenvironmentaleffectsoftheirtidalenergydevices.

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Table7-1:SummaryofFORCEEEMPScheduling

Subject 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Comments

Lobsters

WinterorFall:OneSurvey(2-3weeks)

WinterorFall:OneSurvey(2-3weeks)

--

WinterorFall:OneSurvey(2-3weeks)

--• Onesurveyconsistsofsamplingallstationsthreetimes.• Thenumberandtimingofsurveyswilldependonfishing

season,thedeploymentscheduleandinitialresults.

Fish

Sixmonths,beginninginAprilorMay

Sixmonths,beginninginAprilorMaydependingoninitialresultsandprovidednewdevicesaredeployed

Sixmonths,beginninginAprilorMaydependingoninitialresultsandprovidednewdevicesaredeployed

Sixmonths,beginninginAprilorMaydependingoninitialresultsandprovidednewdevicesaredeployed

Sixmonths,beginninginAprilorMayprovidedoninitialresultsandprovidednewdevicesaredeployed

• Eachannualprogramconsistsofsixsurveysdistributedoversixmonths.

• Eachsurveycompletedoverafulltidalanddielcycle(25hours).

• Studydurationoffiveyearstocapturemultipledeployments.

MarineMammals

Spring(3months)Fall(3months)

--

Spring(3months)Fall(3months)

--

2021:Spring(3months)2021:Fall(3months)

• TwoC-PODsatreferencesitesin2016,2018and2020.• Onceinthespringandonceinthefall.• Threemonthseachdeployment

Spring(3months)

TBD–Device

Spring(3months)

TBD–Device

Spring(3months)

• OneC-PODat100+mfromeachoccupiedberth• Onceinthespringandonceinthefall

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Subject 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Comments

Fall(3months)

Dependent Fall(3months)

Dependent Fall(3months)

• Threemonthseachdeployment.

Acoustics(MarineNoise)

FAST:Spring/Summer(1-2months)

Willdependoninitialresults

Willdependonongoingresults

Willdependonongoingresults

Willdependonongoingresults

• Tocaptureambientnoiseconditionsovermultipletidalcycles.

MarineSeabirds Monthly TBD-

Monthly -- TBD-Monthly

• Typically6hoursperobservationalevent;totalof90hoursofobservation;~16daysannually.

• Threeyears;canbeextendedifwarranted

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