environmental change research centre euro-limpacs : integrated project to evaluate the impacts of...

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE

Euro-limpacs : Integrated Project to Evaluate the Impacts of Global Change on European

Freshwater Ecosystemshttp://www.eurolimpacs.ucl.ac.uk

Martin Kernan, Environmental Change Research Centre, UCL

Euro-limpacs is funded by the European Union under Thematic Sub-Priority 1.1.6.3 “Global Change and Ecosystems"

of the 6th Framework Programme Co-ordinators: Environmental Change Research Centre, UCL

1st EIONET workshop on climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation EEA, Copenhagen, 27-28 November 2007


Future climate change In Europe

Mean temperature anomalyfor 2069-2099• hotter everywhere• west-east and north- south gradients HadRM3 - A2a TEMP

Rationale

•Climate changing rapidly beyond the range of recent (historical) natural variability

•Aquatic ecosystems under stress from land use change and pollution face additional pressures from climate change

•Need to understand direct effects of climate change and also indirect impacts through interaction with pollutants

•Availability and quality of freshwater determines functioning of every ecosystem.


Future climate change In Europe

Mean precipitation anomaly,2069 - 2099• little change in mid-latitudes• wetter in the north• drier in the south HadRM3 A2a PRECIP

•to improve understanding of how global change, especially climate change in its interaction with other drivers (land-use change, nutrient loading, acid deposition, toxic pollution) has changed, is changing and will change the structure and functioning of European freshwater ecosystems;

•to encapsulate this understanding in the form of predictive, testable models;

•to identify key taxa, structures or processes (indicators of aquatic ecosystem health) that clearly indicate impending or realised global change through their loss, occurrence or behaviour;

Objectives I


•to identify better approaches for the re-naturalisation of ecosystems and habitats in the context of global change that will lead to the successful fulfilment of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in achieving good ecological status in freshwater habitats;

•to provide guidance, in the form of useable models, decision support systems and other appropriate tools to respond to the interactions between climate and other changes, in the best interests of conservation of the goods and services provided to the community by its freshwater systems;

•to communicate this information and understanding to users, stakeholders and the wider public.

Objectives II


Euro-limpacs- Work programme structureWP1. Direct I mpacts of Climate Change

WP2. Climate-hydromorphologyinteractions

WP3. Climate-nutrient interactions

WP4. Climate-acidification interactions

WP5. Climate-toxic substances interactions

WP6.I ntegrated Catchment Modelling and Analysis

WP7.I ndicators of ecosystem health

WP8.Reference conditions & restoration strategies

WP9.Tools f or catchment management

WP10.Dissemination & Training

WP1. Direct I mpacts of Climate Change























What will be the magnitude, frequency and severity of episodic eventsin future?

For example:

With respect to surface water acidification,currently ANC is increasing, andthe severity of acid episodes in riversis decreasing. What will be the casein future with changed timing of snowmelt,flooding and temperature?

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Long-term changes in the pH-discharge relationship of the Afon Gwy, Wales

Temporal Themes I: Episodes


How will ecosystems respond to seasonal shifts in temperature and precipitation? Provide a coherent framework where to integrate the knowledge gained throughout Euro-limpacs on seasonal dynamics of freshwater European systems

For example:

Global warming is expressed bywarmer winters rather than warmer summers. How might this affect the timing of the spring bloom?

Asterionella formosa spring bloom for Esthwaite

Asterionella formosa spring bloom for Esthwaite

Temporal Themes II: Seasonality


How will ecosystems respond to decadal-scale changes in mean climate?

Can we combine palaeo-records with data from long-term observations to providelonger high quality time-series for analysis?

Temporal Themes III: Decadal scale


Sediment core sites with co-located monitoring

All sites in database with a palaeo record. Green =also a monitored site



Sediment core sites with co-located monitoringSediment core sites with co-located monitoring




Direct Impacts of future climate change

What are the likely changes to structure and functioning of ecosystems resulting from climate change (temperature, precipitation) that are independent of natural variability and other human impacts (e.g. acidification, land use change, eutrophication) (Photo Anton Brancelj)


Climate – hydromorphology interactions

climate

hydrology(more intense floods)

land use

more intense: loss of buffer

strips

withdrawed: increase ofbuffer strips

removal of floodplain fine-sediment cover

(mountain rivers)

decreasing substrate stability, silting, scouring(lowland rivers)

deteriorating morphology

and biodiversity

improving morphology

and biodiversity

deteriorating morphology

and biodiversity

braided sectionsand increasing

biodiversity

deteriorating nutrient retention

Will climate change lead to a deterioration of catchment hydrology and channel morphology (e.g. land use changes causing habitat loss)?

Will climate change lead to an improvement if, for example, human disturbances are withdrawn from floodplains due to increased flooding frequency

How will climate change interact with hydromorphological and land use change to affect aquatic ecosystems at the reach and microhabitat scale


Climate – eutrophication interactions

LAKES: Will increased temperature interact with continued high nutrient loading to increase the severity of eutrophication symptoms to an extent greater than that expected from natural fluctuations in climate?

STREAMS/FLOODPLAINS: Will predicted prolonged low-flow periods increase denitrification and sedimentation rates?

Will increased winter flows enhance the deposition of sediment-associated nutrients and nitrogen removal rates?


(Monteith et al.)

Climate – acidification interactions

What are the effects of long-term and seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation on the leaching of nitrogen, dissolved organic carbon and sulphate?

What are the effects of increased frequency of episodic inputs of water and sea-salts on acidification pulses?

What are the effects of these factors on the recovery of acidified freshwaters?


Climate – toxic substances interaction

(Grimalt et al.)

How will future climate change influence the distribution patterns and mobility of organic pollutants and toxic metals (lead, cadmium, mercury) in freshwater systems?

How might this lead to changes in the uptake and accumulation of these substances in freshwater food chains?

Will climate change result in a remobilisation of toxic substances stored in catchment soils?


Approaches - Palaeolimnology

• response to natural climate variability •climate impacts on sediment accumulation • past interaction between climate and nutrient impact• identification of modern analogues for pre-acidification and pre-eutrophication status • remobilisation of trace metals in eroding upland organic soils • definition of reference conditions and restoration targets

Diatom analysis of varvedsediments from Kassjon between400 BC and 400 AD


Approaches – long-term data-sets

• data-sets on chemical mass flux, air temperature and precipitation• data-sets on glacier retreat and extreme events (floods) in the Alps• data-sets on river, lake surface temperature, lake temperature profiles, ice-on and ice-out dates for rivers and lakes• data-sets on macro-invertebrate populations in rivers• data-sets for nutrient chemistry and phytoplankton for five nutrient-rich large lakes (Lakes Constance, Maggiore, Windermere, Esthwaite, Leven and Lomond• data-sets for chemistry of 58 acidified lakes and streams with over 15 years data

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Increase in stream and river temperature in Switzerland1965-2002 – decrease in brown trout catch after 1987-8

DavidLivingstoneEAWAG

air

water


Approaches – field experiments

• lake response to increased input of mixing energy (THERMOS) in Finland • DOC generation in response to night-time warming and drought in Wales• response of stream-water quality (N,C,S) to riparian wetland snow-cover• in-stream nutrient retention in response to temperature, aridity and stream channel morphology in Spain• stream chemistry response to manipulations of snow-cover, freeze-thaw cycles and soil wetness in Norway• chemical (including Hg and MeHg) response to hydrological and sea-salt extremes in Sweden

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Runoff response

SBC SO4

Al ANC

solid lines are concentrations in the input

Changes in stream water chemistryat the G1 catchment at Gårdsjön after6 days of clean water and 4 days ofsea-salt addition


Approaches – mesocosm experiments

• biogeochemical response of marginal wetlands to increased flooding using intact cores in climatically-controlled incubators• aquatic macrophyte response to nutrients and temperature in 24 temperature controlled tanks including sediments and mixed plankton• plankton response to nutrients and temperature in 48 temperature controlled tanks with and without fish• litter decomposition response to increased temperature and nutrients in littoral wetlands using

submerged plant (Denmark) phytoplankton (UK) emergent plant (Switzerland)


Approaches – paired study experiments

• paired studies of straight and braided mountain streams in relation to land-use and discharge controls on habitat and benthic invertebrate distribution in German and other sites • paired studies of near-natural and degraded meadering streams in relation to impact of scouring, woody debris abundance and discharge in Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Sweden• paired groundwater-fed (constant temperature) and rainwater-fed streams (ambient temperature) comparisons to assess impact of temperature on functional structure of macro-invertebrate community • paired sites in Iceland with naturally warm (geothermal) and cool water for experiments on the influence of nutrients on stream and lake communities


Approaches – spatial studies

• relationship between benthic diatoms and under-water irradiance along a DOC gradient in the UK to develop a training set for DOC reconstruction• analysis of land-use, hydromorphological and biological data for study rivers across Europe• data collation and analysis from sites across Europe to assess food-web, nutrient and climate interactions, especially with respect to seasonality• reconstruction of food-web relationships at sites from the sub-arctic to Mediterranean using stable isotopes• altitudinal transects in the Pyrenees, Tatras and Alps of POPs and metals in soils, snow and fish

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Gill net loss Gut net uptake

Gut uptake Gill exchange

• fugacity model• OC in food, water, fish • increases with mol. weight• residence time in L.Redo >10 years for >PCB#52


Approaches - models• MyLake – physical lake model to simulate increased input of mixing energy in the THERMOS experiment• Coupled hydrophyscial/ecological modelling of climate impacts on large, deep lakes (Maggiore, Lomond, Constance and Hornindalsvatn• PROTECH – to simulate phytoplankton response to nutrients and climate at Esthwaite and EU-CLIME sites• MAGIC – to address interactions between climate and surface water acidification processes at sites throughout Europe and in Canada• The INCA family - Integrated catchment models for N, P,C, Hg, and sediment (INCA-N, INCA-P, INCA-C, INCA-Tox, INCA-Sed• Model chaining e.g HBV/MAGIC/INCA-N/Fjord models for N at Bjerkreim

INCA-NFrilsham

Wade andWhitehead


•Data collation & process analysis at data rich catchments •Model development •Uncertainty analysis •Socio-economic integration •Model tool-kit development •Impact assessment •Impact management

Key Euro-limpacs sites

Integrated catchment analysis and modelling


Management I Reference conditions and restoration targets • improve methods for establishing reference conditions for

different ecosystem types (rivers, lakes and wetlands) • develop methods for validating reference conditions• develop and improve methods to establish restoration

targets • evaluate the success or failure of current restoration

strategies, and to assess the role of climate change ininfluencing recovery

• assess how restoration targets for differentecosystems may need modification to accommodate the future impact of climate change


Management II Indicators of Ecosystem Health

OBJECTIVES

i) to use databases to summarise knowledge on chemical, hydrological, biological and functional indicators of ecosystem health

ii) to generate a set of chemical, biological and functional parameters for monitoring climate change impacts

iii) to expand and modify existing assessment and prediction methods for European freshwater ecosystems by integrating knowledge and widening their applicability to questions of global change.


www.freshwaterecology.info – online database on the ecological preferences and distribution of 22,000 European freshwater taxa (diatoms, benthic invertebrates, fish) based on the evaluation of >8,000 literature references)


Management III Catchment Modelling and Decision Support Systems

(Pickering 2001)

Develop a tool-kit to simulate hydrological, hydrochemical and hydroecological process interactions between rivers, lakes and wetlands within integrated catchment systems that can be used to assess the potential impact of global change at the catchment scale.


WP9: Tools for catchment management and decision support

OBJECTIVES

i) to investigate the socio-economic pressureson catchment management with reference to global change and develop methods for the socio-economic valuation of freshwater systems;

ii) to analyse which policies and structures at both European and national level influence catchment management;

iii) to consult stakeholders at the European, national and catchment levels to ensure that management strategies are appropriate and useable;

iv) to develop a user-friendly Decision Support System for effective management of freshwaters


Dissemination and training

Deals with the transfer of knowledge internally within Euro-limpacs and externally with the user community and wider public.


Climate Change and Aquatic Ecosystems in Britain: Science, Policy and Management

Sponsored by The Environment Agency

Wednesday 16th May 2007

Environmental Change Research Centre, UCL

Although climate models vary in their projection of future climate change all are in agreement that significant further global warming will occur within this century, principally as a result of a continuing rise in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Exploring the implications of these projections for the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems is now a priority for freshwater scientists, decision makers and managers. Consideration needs to be given not only to the direct impact of climate change on aquatic ecosystems (e.g. with respect to changes in temperature, precipitation and wind) but also to the indirect impacts through interactions with other drivers of change (e.g. nutrient loading, acid deposition, soil erosion). In this one-day meeting we aim to:

(i) Review progress in modelling climate change in the UK; (ii) Present the interim results of current EU-funded research on

climate change, especially from the CLIME and Euro-limpacs projects;

(iii) Discuss the implications for the implementation in the UK of current EU policies on water quality and aquatic biodiversity (principally the Water Framework Directive and the Habitats Directive)

(iv) Identify gaps in our understanding and assess priorities for future research

Invited speakers include: The Hadley Centre, Rick Battarbee (UCL), Glen George (CEH/UCL), Chris Evans (CEH), Brian Moss (Liverpool), John Murphy (CEH), Paule Whitehead (Reading), Ed Maltby (Liverpool), Rob Wilby (Environment Agency), Natural England, SEPA, European Commission, Water Industry For further information contact: Heather Binney, ECRC, UCL, Pearson Building, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT Tel: 020 7679 0575 Email: [email protected]

One day meeting, Wednesday 16th May,UCL

Speakers from Euro-limpacs & CLIME projectsEnvironment AgencySEPANatural EnglandWater Industry

Climate Change and Aquatic Ecosystems in Britain: Science, Policy and Management

Sponsored by The Environment Agency

Wednesday 16th May 2007

Environmental Change Research Centre, UCL

Although climate models vary in their projection of future climate change all are in agreement that significant further global warming will occur within this century, principally as a result of a continuing rise in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Exploring the implications of these projections for the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems is now a priority for freshwater scientists, decision makers and managers. Consideration needs to be given not only to the direct impact of climate change on aquatic ecosystems (e.g. with respect to changes in temperature, precipitation and wind) but also to the indirect impacts through interactions with other drivers of change (e.g. nutrient loading, acid deposition, soil erosion). In this one-day meeting we aim to:

(i) Review progress in modelling climate change in the UK; (ii) Present the interim results of current EU-funded research on

climate change, especially from the CLIME and Euro-limpacs projects;

(iii) Discuss the implications for the implementation in the UK of current EU policies on water quality and aquatic biodiversity (principally the Water Framework Directive and the Habitats Directive)

(iv) Identify gaps in our understanding and assess priorities for future research

Invited speakers include: The Hadley Centre, Rick Battarbee (UCL), Glen George (CEH/UCL), Chris Evans (CEH), Brian Moss (Liverpool), John Murphy (CEH), Paule Whitehead (Reading), Ed Maltby (Liverpool), Rob Wilby (Environment Agency), Natural England, SEPA, European Commission, Water Industry For further information contact: Heather Binney, ECRC, UCL, Pearson Building, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT Tel: 020 7679 0575 Email: [email protected]

One day meeting, Wednesday 16th May,UCL

Speakers from Euro-limpacs & CLIME projectsEnvironment AgencySEPANatural EnglandWater Industry

Presentation and panel discussion


































HOW WELL INFORMED ARE WE?

ADAPTATION MEASURES?


Euro-limpacs – Integration workshops

We have identified 4 themes that summarise the project and its objectives:

1. What are the meteorological/climate effects on the physical and chemicalstatus of freshwater systems

2. What are the ecological consequences of changes in the physical and chemicalstatus of freshwater ecosystems caused by climate change and how can they bedetected

3. What can be done by adaptation and remediation measures to cope with thephysical, chemical and ecological changes expected?

4. What are the implications of climate change for policy and management offreshwater ecosystems?


What can we do about adaptation and remediation to cope with the physical/chemical and ecological changes?

• What are the practical measures that can be take to mitigate or adapt to future projected Climate impacts on different aquatic ecosystems (NB with respect to different stressors, in different regions)? NB think also outside the Eurolimpacs project

• what implications do these responses have for further research?

• Are there existing case studies in Euro-limpacs or elsewhere

• Can we Identify new case studies for Euro-limpacs

• Euro-limpacs position paper early 2008 summarising state of the art, Euro-limpacs activities, gaps in knowledge and proposing research agenda

environmental change research centre euro-limpacs : integrated project to evaluate the impacts of...

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