Australia’s Environment in 2018 Briefing

4 April 2019, Canberra

Albert van Dijk

Shoshana Rapley

Centre for Water and Landscape Dynamics Fenner School of Environment & Society

The Australian National University

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About Australia’s Environment

• An annual summary of environmental conditions in Australia

• Largely to limited to data sources that can tell us something about the previous year – so not complete

• Intended to demonstrate how the 5-yearly State of Environment report can be supplemented

• Summarises large amounts of data from various sources you may not be aware of, or cannot examine yourself

• Includes additional integrative analysis using ANU’s model-data fusion system OzWALD

• Collaborative effort with NCI, TERN, IMOS and ALA.

The Conversation

Australia’s Environment Explorer www.ausenv.online/2018

Partners and data providers • National Computational Infrastructure (NCI)

• Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN)

• Atlas of Living Australia (ALA)

• Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS)

• Geoscience Australia

• CSIRO

• Bureau of Meteorology

• Australian Bureau of Statistics

• Dept. Environment and Energy

• NASA, NOAA, ECMWF, and others

Special thanks • Rowena Smith, Luigi Renzullo (ANU)

• Joel Rahman (FlowMatters)

• Jingbo Wang, Kelsey Druken (NCI)

• Matt Paget, Juan Pablo Guerschman (CSIRO)

• Norman Mueller (GA)

• Lee Belbin (ALA)

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Rivers

Wetlands

Soil

Vegetation

Land cover

Biodiversity

Topics covered today

Population

Global change

Oceans

Temperature

Rainfall

Fire

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Population pressure

Australia’s population • Increased by ~433K in 2018

• Exceeded 25 million in June 2018

• 33% increase from 2000

• More than ¾ of growth is in capital cities

• Greatest increase in Victoria

source: ABS

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Ozone hole

• Increased 27% from 2017

• 4th largest since 2005 peak

• Growth due to cold temperatures exacerbating ozone depletion

Source: NASA, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service

Global context

Global context

Atmospheric CO2

• Peak of 411 ppm in 2018

• 10% increase from 370 ppm in 2000

• 29% increase from 316 ppm in 1960

• Growth rate 2.86 ppm in 2018

• 33% above 2000-2017 average

Source: NOAA

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Global mean temperature • 2018 fourth warmest year on record

• Past 5 years collectively warmest on modern record

• 0.83 °C warmer than 1951-1980 mean

Global context

Source: NASA

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Global context

Source: US National Snow and Ice Data Center

Sea ice extent • 12% decline since 1979

(area approximately the size of Western Australia)

• Up <1% (165,000 km2) on 2017 (about the size of 3x Tasmania)

• Sudden decline in Antarctic sea ice since 2014 continued

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Ocean Heat Content • Oceans store most of the heat from

global warming

• 2018 broke the previous year’s heat record, continuing a steady increase.

Source: IAP CAS

Oceans

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Sea level rise • Sea level rose 2.9mm in 2018

• Since 1993, sea level has risen 91 mm or an average 3.6 mm per year

Source: NASA

Oceans

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Sea level around Australia • Has been rising faster than

the average 3.6 mm per year

• Influenced by climate variability associated with the El Niño/La Niña cycle and the Indian Ocean Dipole

Oceans

Source: CSIRO

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Source: BoM / NOAA

Sea surface temperature (SST)

Oceans

• Average SST around Australia was lower than 2017

• Still 0.46 °C above 1961-1990 average

• ~1 °C warming since 1910

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Oceans

Sea surface temperature

• Mean SST was in the top 10% of years everywhere except the southwest

• Parts of Tasman sea hottest SST recorded. Mean Tasman sea SST the 2nd highest recorded

• December SST in south-east cool due to Tasman sea upwelling

Source: NOAA, BoM

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Trends in mean hard coral based on broad-scale (manta tow) surveys up to March 2018

Source: AIMS

Oceans

• No bleaching

• No recovery

Great Barrief Reef condition

Rainfall

Precipitation Combining satellite and BoM gauge data

• National average 422 mm

• 15% less than 2017

• 11% below long-term average

Source: BoM/NASA/ANU

Rainfall

Regional differences

Source: BoM/NASA/ANU

• Lowest in parts of NSW and north since at least 2000

• Above average in parts of WA

Mean temperature • 3rd highest mean temperature (+1.14 °C)

• Warmest year on record for NSW

• 2nd highest maximum temperatures (+1.55 °C)

Reference: 1961-1990 mean

Source: BoM

Temperature

Record temperatures • Summer-like heat records in April

• Nov/Dec heat wave in northern Queensland

• Highest max temperatures this century across North Australia

• 3rd-highest December temperature ever: 49.3 °C (Marble Bar)

Source: BoM

Temperature

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High temperatures • Largest number of days over

35°C in several other regions

• Record heat wave on FNQ coast in November

• Cool summer in SW WA

• Fire season several months longer than normal

Temperature

Source: ECMWF/ANU

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Frost days • Frosty nights in several areas

where frost is uncommon due to dry soils and atmosphere

Temperature

Source: ECMWF/ANU

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Snow cover • No snow in early winter in Tasmania

• Somewhat below average overall

Temperature

Source: NASA / ANU

Fire

Fire occurrence Derived from GA’s Sentinel Hotspots fire monitoring system based on satellite observations

• 27% fewer fires than in 2018

• Fewer fires in Top End and WA

• More fire in Eastern Australia

Source: GA/ANU

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• January 14, Sawyers Valley, WA: 1,000 ha

• January 19, Pillaga NP, NSW: 17,000 ha

• March 18, Tathra, NSW: 1,000 ha+, 70+ houses lost

• March 19, Terang, Vic: 6,700 ha

• April 15, Holsworthy/Menai, NSW

• May, Wellstead, WA: 4,000 ha

• May, Porongurup, WA: 17,000 ha

• August 15, Bega, NSW: 2,300 ha

• August 15, Budawang NP: 1,516 ha, 1 casualty

• August 18, Salt Ash, NSW: 2,000 ha

• October 11, south of Broome, WA - 880,000 ha

• November 25, Blackdown Tablelands, Qld - 1,000+ ha

• December 4, Eungella NP, Qld - 110,000 ha

Major events

Fire

Source: GA/ANU

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December 4, Eungella NP, Qld 110,000 ha

Photo: ABC News: Jessica Kidd

Fire

Source: GA/ANU

Biomass burning Estimated by Europe-based Global Fire Assimilation System from model and satellite data

• Most emissions from Northern Australia

• 161 Mt C burnt in 2018

• 10% more than in 2017

Fire

Source: ECMWF/ANU

By land use • Increase mainly from natural

environments and native pasture in northern WA and Queensland

Fire

Source: ECMWF/ANU

Streamflow depth (mm) of water flowing into rivers per unit area, derived from ANU’s OzWALD system

Rivers

Daly River flood, January 2018

Photo: NT News

• Estimated national average runoff 563 GL in 2018

• 20% less than 2017

• below average

• Major events:

• Jan: WA/NT

• Mar: N Qld

• May: Tasmania

Source: ANU

Rivers

Streamflow • Very low inflows in

most catchment in SE Australia, some lower than Millennium Drought

• Lowest this century in Ord Catchment

Source: ANU

Rivers

Water storages • Storage declines in all major water

supply systems except Perth

Source: BoM WaterData

Closing volume

2018 (GL) Change from 2017

GL %

Murray-Darling

Basin 11,901 - 5,427 -31%

Ord 6,335 - 2,560 -29%

Canberra 181 - 44 -20%

Sydney 1,575 - 452 -22%

Brisbane 1,670 - 51 -3%

Melbourne 1,125 - 132 -11%

Adelaide 114 - 32 -22%

Perth 286 + 77 +37%

Inundated area The fraction area covered by water (less than a day or the entire year) mapped from MODIS and Landsat satellite imagery

• 53,398 km2 was flooded in 2018

• Lower than ever during the Millennium Drought

• 23% less than in 2017

Wetlands

Inundated area

Wetlands

Source: GA/ANU

Soil moisture mm water in the top 6m profile, derived from ANU’s OzWALD system

• Estimated national soil moisture storage decreased by 38 mm (or 6%) in 2018

• Good start to the year in N Australia, but very dry cool season in SE Australia.

Soil condition

Source: ANU

Regional differences

• Soil driest since 2000 along SE Coast, NT and Northern Qld

• Wettest since 2000 in parts of WA

Soil condition

Source: ANU

Exposed soil Percentage of soil that is not protected by live or dead plant matter, from satellite imagery

• Deterioration across most of Australia

• Worst since 2009

Soil condition

Source: CSIRO/ANU

Vegetation leaf area The one-sided area of living leaves per unit surface area (m2/m2), produced by NASA from their MODIS satellite data.

• 11% decline from 2018

• Worst conditions since 2009

Vegetation

Source: NASA / ANU

Vegetation leaf area Regional differences

• Poor vegetation condition in NSW and SA

• Improved conditions in southern WA

Vegetation

Source: NASA / ANU

Vegetation carbon uptake Photosynthesis, derived from the ANU OzWALD system

• 15% lower than 2018

• Lowest since 2009

Vegetation

Source: ANU

Differences by land use Biomass dry matter production estimated from carbon uptake by the OzWALD system

• Poor year for dryland cropping (except WA), irrigation, grazing

• Dip but positive trends in forestry and natural environments

Vegetation

-11% -4%

-20% -17% -17%

-34% +17%

Source: ANU

Persistent cover

• Current definitions of ‘forest’ lead to artefacts in annual reporting. Persistent cover is more reliably assessed from satellite instruments.

• Mapped from MODIS satellite imagery.

• Persistent cover generally equivalent to woody vegetation canopy cover, but not always. Can include other evergreen pasture or vegetation

• Reductions can be due to different processes (drought, fire, clearing).

Persistent cover

Source: CSIRO/ANU

Persistent cover

• Widespread reductions in persistent cover, overall 12% less than 2017

• Equivalent to net loss of 12 Mha canopy cover

• Mostly related to water availability, compounded by fire and clearing.

Persistent cover

Source: CSIRO/ANU

• Greatest losses in cropping and grazing areas in SE Australia

• Largely related to cover reduction in perennial pasture

Persistent cover by land cover type

2018 Change from 2017

Mha Mha % Natural environments 41.3 -4.1 -10%

Forestry 6.7 -0.2 -3%

Grazing 33.0 -6.5 -20%

Cropping 3.3 -0.7 -22% Other uses 1.3 -0.1 -8%

Total 85.5 -11.6 -12%

Persistent cover

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Biodiversity

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Biodiversity

Accounting for biodiversity Comprehensive data on changes in biodiversity, species distribution and abundance are either impossible or extremely expensive to collect.

Some alternatives:

• Threatened species listings

• Rapid survey methods

• Bio-indicators

• Key Threatening Processes (KTPs)

• Citizen science

Southern corroboree frog critically endangered since 2013

photo

: J.

Lane

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Biodiversity

Threatened species list • 54 species newly listed

• Total 1775, +3% from 2017 and +47% from 2000

• Conservation advice for 97%

• Recovery plans for 43%

Source: EPBC Act List, DoEE

flora

fishes

frogs

reptiles

birds

mammals

other fauna

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Biodiversity

Threatened species • 54 new listing mostly

intersect with 2017 distribution

• Extended distribution of threatened species in south-west Australia

Source: EPBC Act List, DoEE, ALA

Number of threatened species (pre-2018)

ALA records for newly listed species

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Biodiversity

Source: Federal Department of Environment and Energy, Atlas of Living Australia

5 down-listed

59 added

14 up-listed

1 extinct

Solanum bauerianum Bridal flower

Atrichornis clamosus Noisy scrub-bird

Euploea alcathoe enastri Gove crow butterfly

Antechinus arktos Black-tailed antechinus

Photo: Gold Coast Bulletin Photo: Alan Danks, ABC Photo: Wikipedia commons Photo: Wikipedia commons

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Biodiversity

Photo: DoEE Photo: Jodi Rowley, Australian Museum

Ph

oto

: Neh

a P

atil, A

lchetro

n

Species ‘rediscovered’ in 2018

Booroolong frog (Litoria booroolongensis) presumed locally extinct since 1975

Douglas’s broad-headed bee (Hesperocolletes douglasi) rediscovered after declared extinct in 1994

Narbarlek subspecies (Petrogale concinna) presumed extinct in mainland WA since 70s

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Biodiversity

Source: UNSW 2017 Eastern Australian Waterbird Survey Report

Annual airborne count over wetlands in NSW and southern Queensland by UNSW

All major indices in decline: total abundance, breeding species richness, breeding abundance, wetland area, bird concentration

Rapid surveys: Water birds

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Bio-indicators: Flying Foxes

• Live in colonies, hence a useful bio-

indicator of heat stress in a broader range of fauna

• 4 species in Australia, 2 EPBC listed

• Grey-headed flying fox vulnerable

• Spectacled flying fox up-listed to endangered (February 2019)

• Susceptible to heat illness above 39°C and mortality occurs above 42°C

• Major mortality event during December 2018 FNQ heatwave

Biodiversity

Source: CSIRO

Photo: David White, ABC Photo: Geoff Holland

Spectacled flying fox population

Bio-indicators: Sharks Shark net and drumlines intend to reduce human interactions also indicative of depletion of shark populations over last half century

Capture per unit effort of shark nets in Queensland. Source: Roff et al. (2018)

Biodiversity

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Key Threatening Processes Invasive species (affect 82%* of species)

• Novel biota (e.g. goats, deer, buffalo, horses) • Rabbits • Red fox • Rats on offshore islands • Feral cats • Pigs • Cane toads • Noisy miners • Gamba and other exotic grasses • Escaped garden plants • Yellow crazy ant • Red fire ant

Biodiversity

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Source: SPRAT

Pathogens (affect 16% of species)

• Root-rot fungus (Phytophthora cinnamomi) • Chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) • Psittacine Circoviral (beak and feather) disease

Direct human impacts

• Land clearing (35%) • Anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases (36%) • Trawling bycatch of sea-turtles (0.3%) • Long-line bycatch of seabirds (2%) • Marine debris killing wildlife (2.5%)

* Direct effects only. Indirect and not yet documented effects are not included in percentage

Key Threatening Processes: invasive species

Photo: Wikipedia commons

Biodiversity

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Source: Kearney et al. (2018)

Feral horses

Estimated 7,000–8,000 wild horses in the Australian Alps

Affect 67 threatened species, inc. 16 in the Alps

Kosciuszko Wild Horse Heritage Act 2018 (NSW) June

90 researchers signed the Kosciuszko Science Accord (8/11/2018)

Ph

oto

: OEH

, Dr G

reen

Ph

oto

: W. C

hen

, Flickr

Biodiversity

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Ph

oto

: Pa

rks Victo

ria

Source: DOEE, SPRAT database Alpine buttercup Broad-toothed rat

Horse exclosure

Chytrid fungus

Most threatening pathogen in the world

Still causing declines in amphibian populations globally and in Australia

Arrived in Australia in 1970s - ongoing and present declines

Caused decline of 43 species: 7 now extinct

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Biodiversity

Photo

: C

. D

oughty

Photo

: P

. T

aylo

r, T

hre

ate

ned S

pecie

s R

ecovery

Hub

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Biodiversity

Citizen* Science: The Atlas of Living Australia

* and non-citizen

Photo: D. Rowland Photo: Wiki-media Photo: M. Chappel Photo: D. Paton Photo: JJ Harrison

Birds 56% of all records. Five most recorded species:

Australian Magpie 1.3% of all records Magpie-lark Willie wagtail Galah Welcome swallow

Ph

oto

: eBird

Ph

oto

: bird

ga

rd

Noisy miner Native honeyeater, only native KTP

Affect 4 threatened species and 1 entire ecological community (Victorian temperate woodland; 24 birds)

Biodiversity

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Ratio of ALA noisy miner sightings over all ALA bird sightings, with 1998-2002 average = 100

Common myna: Asian

starling, pest biota

Different bird:

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Headline indicators

Headline indicators

Change from previous year Hides much context and complexity, e.g.

• Some changes have desirable as well as undesirable impacts

• Indicators can have high or low natural variability

• Differences between regions

Headline indicators

Ranking years • Provides more historic context

• Environmental Condition Score (ECS): composite indicator that averages seven indicators, each scored between 0 and 10

• Terrestrial environment only

• Subjective, though many indicators are correlated with water availability

3.7

-1.8

ACT

Headline indicators

Ranking years • Provides more historic context

• Environmental Condition Score (ECS): composite indicator that averages seven indicators, each scored between 0 and 10

• Terrestrial environment only

• Subjective, though many indicators are correlated with water availability

2.7

-3.9

National

Regional differences

• Conditions deteriorated to below average in all states

• Worst conditions since 2000 in NSW

• Least bad conditions in WA and Tas

Headline indicators

2.7

-3.9

National

2017 in Summary

• Global change continues unabated, climate change is here

• ..

• ..

• ..

• ..

• Ecosystem integrity and biodiversity are poorly known, but declining

• Human pressure and ecological decline continue

For more information, visit Australia’s Environment online:

www.ausenv.online/2018