Environment and Development Challenges:The Imperative to Act

Bob WatsonBob WatsonStrategic Director of the Tyndall Centre, UEAStrategic Director of the Tyndall Centre, UEA

Chief Scientific Advisor at DefraChief Scientific Advisor at Defra

Based on a paper prepared by the Asahi Glass Foundation Based on a paper prepared by the Asahi Glass Foundation Blue Planet Laureates for Rio+20Blue Planet Laureates for Rio+20

Princeton UniversityPrinceton University2 April, 2012 2 April, 2012

Environment and Development Challenges:The Imperative to Act

  Gro Harlem Brundtland, Paul Ehrlich, Jose Gro Harlem Brundtland, Paul Ehrlich, Jose Goldemberg, James Hansen, Amory Lovins, Gene Goldemberg, James Hansen, Amory Lovins, Gene Likens, Suki Manabe, Bob May, Hal Mooney, Karl-Likens, Suki Manabe, Bob May, Hal Mooney, Karl-

Henrik Robert, Emil Salim, Gordon Sato, Susan Henrik Robert, Emil Salim, Gordon Sato, Susan Solomon, Nicholas Stern, MS Swaminathan, Bob Solomon, Nicholas Stern, MS Swaminathan, Bob

WatsonWatson

Barefoot College, Conservation International, Barefoot College, Conservation International, International institute for Environment and International institute for Environment and

Development, and International Union for the Development, and International Union for the Conservation of NatureConservation of Nature

Current Situation• Unacceptable levels of poverty and

income inequality• Unacceptable levels of hunger• Lack of access to clean water and

energy• Significant increases in population• Unsustainable economic system• Rapid Environmental changes

Climate change Loss of biodiversity and ecosystem

degradation Land degradation Water pollution Local and regional air pollution

The Blue Planet Laureates DreamA worldA world without povertywithout poverty that is equitablethat is equitable that respects human rightsthat respects human rights with increased and improved ethical behaviorwith increased and improved ethical behavior that is environmentally, socially and economically that is environmentally, socially and economically

sustainable, where the challenges such as climate sustainable, where the challenges such as climate change and loss of biodiversity have been successfully change and loss of biodiversity have been successfully addressedaddressed

This is an achievable dream, but the current system is This is an achievable dream, but the current system is deeply flawed and our current pathway will not realize deeply flawed and our current pathway will not realize

it it

The time to act is now Address population – education of girls,

empowerment of women and access to modern forms of contraception

Improve resource efficiency – production and use Transition to a low-carbon economy, coupled with

adaptation to climate change Address the drivers of biodiversity loss and the

degradation of ecosystem services Go beyond GDP – complement with the five forms of

capital – built, financial, human, social and natural Eliminate subsidies and create functioning markets

to pay for ecosystem services Address failures of governance at the local,

national and global level – eliminate the power of vested interests - create systems that are multi-sectoral

Scale up grass-roots actions Enhanced levels of education, training, R&D and

assessments

Population

20002000 20502050 21002100

12B12B

8B8B

4B4B

PopulationPopulation projection projection (Lutz & Samir 2010)(Lutz & Samir 2010)

20%20%60%60%

95%95%

Action needed – education of girls, empowerment of women, health care of children and the elderly, and making modern health care of children and the elderly, and making modern

contraception accessible to allcontraception accessible to all

Sustainable Production and Consumption

There is an urgent need to break the link between There is an urgent need to break the link between production and consumption on the one hand and production and consumption on the one hand and environmental destruction on the otherenvironmental destruction on the other

This would allow raising material living standards for This would allow raising material living standards for a period that would allow us to overcome world a period that would allow us to overcome world povertypoverty

However, indefinite material growth on a planet with However, indefinite material growth on a planet with finite and often fragile natural resources will finite and often fragile natural resources will eventually be unsustainable eventually be unsustainable

We need to get the economics right – see upcoming We need to get the economics right – see upcoming slidesslides

Climate Change

Climate ChangeClimate Change The composition of the atmosphere, and the Earth’s climate has The composition of the atmosphere, and the Earth’s climate has

changed, mostly due to human activities (highly certain), and is changed, mostly due to human activities (highly certain), and is projected to continue to change, globally and regionally:projected to continue to change, globally and regionally:

• Increased greenhouse gases and aerosolsIncreased greenhouse gases and aerosols• Warmer temperatures Warmer temperatures • Changing precipitation patterns – spatially and temporallyChanging precipitation patterns – spatially and temporally• Higher sea levels – higher storm surgesHigher sea levels – higher storm surges• Retreating mountain glaciersRetreating mountain glaciers• Melting of the Greenland ice capMelting of the Greenland ice cap• Reduced arctic sea iceReduced arctic sea ice• More frequent extreme weather eventsMore frequent extreme weather events

heat waves, floods and droughtsheat waves, floods and droughts• More intense cyclonic events, e,g., hurricanes in the AtlanticMore intense cyclonic events, e,g., hurricanes in the Atlantic

The Climate is The Climate is WarmingWarming

Surface TemperatureSurface Temperature

Precipitation ProjectionsPrecipitation Projections

Dealing with impacts is about managing risk -economic, Dealing with impacts is about managing risk -economic, environmental and social economyenvironmental and social economy

1°C1°C 2°C2°C 5°C5°C4°C4°C3°C3°C

Sea level rise threatens Sea level rise threatens major citiesmajor cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions developing regions

FoodFood

WaterWater

EcosystemsEcosystems

Risk of Abrupt and Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Major Irreversible ChangesChanges

Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)0°C0°C

Falling yields in many Falling yields in many developed regionsdeveloped regions

Rising number of species face extinctionRising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate systemlarge-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern AfricaMediterranean and Southern Africa

Small glaciers disappear Small glaciers disappear – water supplies – water supplies threatened in several threatened in several areasareas

Extensive Damage to Extensive Damage to Coral ReefsCoral Reefs

Extreme Extreme WeatherWeather Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat wavesRising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Possible rising yields in some Possible rising yields in some high latitude regionshigh latitude regions

Stern Review (2006)Stern Review (2006)

What level of risk are we willing to bear?What level of risk are we willing to bear?

Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy Universal access to clean energy services is vital for the Universal access to clean energy services is vital for the

poorpoor

A transition to a low carbon economy will require rapid A transition to a low carbon economy will require rapid technological evolution in the efficiency of energy use, technological evolution in the efficiency of energy use, environmentally sound low-carbon renewable energy environmentally sound low-carbon renewable energy sources and carbon capture and storage sources and carbon capture and storage

The longer we wait to transition to a low carbon The longer we wait to transition to a low carbon economy the more we are locked into a high carbon economy the more we are locked into a high carbon energy system with consequent environmental damage energy system with consequent environmental damage to ecological and socio-economic systems, including to ecological and socio-economic systems, including infrastructureinfrastructure

Putting a price on carbon throughPutting a price on carbon through• emissions tradingemissions trading• taxationtaxation• regulation - national, regional and globalregulation - national, regional and global

Technology transformationTechnology transformation• Carbon capture and storageCarbon capture and storage• Future generation biofuelsFuture generation biofuels

Mobilising behaviour changeMobilising behaviour change• CitizensCitizens• BusinessBusiness• Public sectorPublic sector

Mitigation Strategy

Potential technological options • Efficient production and use of energy: coal plants (e.g.,

re-powering old inefficient plants and developing IGCC); vehicles (e.g., fuel cell cars) and reduced use of vehicles (e.g., mass transit and urban planning), buildings, and industries

• Fuel shift: coal to gas

• Renewable Energy and Fuels: Wind power; solar PV and solar thermal; wave and tidal power: small and large-scale hydropower; bio-energy

• CO2 Capture and Storage: Capture CO2 in the production of electricity followed by geological storage (e.g., IGCC – CCS)

• Nuclear fission: Nuclear power

• Forests and Agricultural Soils: Reduced deforestation and degradation; reforestation; afforestation; conservation tillage; reduced fertilizer use

Emissions Paths to StabilizationEmissions Paths to Stabilization

Source: Stern Review

Elements of an adaptation strategyElements of an adaptation strategy

The eight The eight elements of an elements of an

adaptation adaptation strategystrategy

Information Information and good and good sciencescience

Education Education and and

communicationcommunication

Responsibility Responsibility for for

developmentdevelopment

Risk Risk management management

plansplans Linking with Linking with other planning other planning

processesprocesses

Legislation Legislation and and

enforcementenforcement

Support Support networksnetworks

Financing Financing adaptationadaptation

• Delivery of adaptive responses depends on Delivery of adaptive responses depends on governancegovernance mechanismsmechanisms

• Adaptive capacity and society’s self-organisation is determined Adaptive capacity and society’s self-organisation is determined by by governancegovernance

• Distribution of costs and benefits in society is determined by Distribution of costs and benefits in society is determined by governancegovernance

Source: Emma TompkinsSource: Emma Tompkins

Physical limits: Physical limits: there are there are physical limits to potential physical limits to potential adaptation on small low lying adaptation on small low lying islandsislands

Behavioural limits: Behavioural limits: there are there are behavioural constraints that behavioural constraints that influence where we live and influence where we live and whywhy

Technological limits: Technological limits: there there are technological limits to are technological limits to the flood defences that can the flood defences that can be constructedbe constructed

Financial limitsFinancial limits

There limits to adaption: physical, behavioural, technological, financial

Biodiversity Loss and Ecosystem Degradation

Air, land, water, and all living organisms Air, land, water, and all living organisms

ECOSYSTEMSECOSYSTEMSPlaces (e.g: Broad Habitats) where Places (e.g: Broad Habitats) where

biological, chemical and physical interactions occur. biological, chemical and physical interactions occur.

In terrestrial habitats these include In terrestrial habitats these include above and below ground processes above and below ground processes

ECOSYSTEM APPROACHECOSYSTEM APPROACH““the integrated management of land, water and the integrated management of land, water and

living resources that promotes conservation living resources that promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way” and sustainable use in an equitable way”

Ecosystem ServicesEcosystem Services

ECOSYSTEM SERVICESECOSYSTEM SERVICESThe benefits people get from ecosystemsThe benefits people get from ecosystems

Supporting servicesSupporting servicesNecessary for the delivery of other ecosystem Necessary for the delivery of other ecosystem

servicesservicesSoil formation, Nutrient cycling, Water cycling, Primary Soil formation, Nutrient cycling, Water cycling, Primary

productionproduction

ProvisioninProvisioning servicesg servicesCrops, Livestock, Crops, Livestock, Game, Fisheries, Game, Fisheries,

Water supply, Wild Water supply, Wild species diversity species diversity

(genetic resources)(genetic resources)

Regulating Regulating servicesservices

Climate, Hazards, Climate, Hazards, Detoxification & Detoxification &

Purification, Purification, Disease/pest Disease/pest

control Pollinationcontrol Pollination

Cultural Cultural servicesservices

Aesthetic, Spiritual, Aesthetic, Spiritual, Inspirational, Inspirational, Educational, Educational, Recreation, Recreation,

Tourism Wild Tourism Wild species diversityspecies diversity

Drivers of Biodiversity Loss

Biodiversity Loss

HabitatHabitatChangeChange

ClimateClimateChangeChange

InvasiveInvasiveSpeciesSpecies

Over-Over-exploitationexploitation

NutrientsNutrients& pollution& pollution

EconomicEconomic Demo-Demo-graphicgraphic

Socio-Socio-politicalpolitical

Cultural &Cultural &religiousreligious

Science &Science &TechnologyTechnology

Indirect driversIndirect drivers

Direct driversDirect drivers

Unprecedented change: Ecosystems

Species extinctions

Human activities Human activities have taken the have taken the planet to the edge planet to the edge of a massive wave of a massive wave of species of species extinctions, further extinctions, further threatening our threatening our own well-beingown well-being

Getting the Economics Right: Beyond GDP

Governments should recognize the serious limitations of Governments should recognize the serious limitations of GDP as a measure of economic activity and complement GDP as a measure of economic activity and complement it with measures of the five forms of capital: built, it with measures of the five forms of capital: built, financial, natural, human and social capitalfinancial, natural, human and social capital

Green taxes and the elimination of environmentally-Green taxes and the elimination of environmentally-damaging subsidies in areas such as energy, damaging subsidies in areas such as energy, transportation and agriculture and should be eliminatedtransportation and agriculture and should be eliminated

external environmental and social costs should be external environmental and social costs should be internalizedinternalized

market and non-market economic values, and cultural market and non-market economic values, and cultural and shared social values, of ecosystem goods and and shared social values, of ecosystem goods and services should be taken into account in decision-makingservices should be taken into account in decision-making

2626

Valuation of goods and ecosystem Valuation of goods and ecosystem services services

Primary productionPrimary production

DecompositionDecomposition

Soil formationSoil formation

Nutrient cyclingNutrient cycling

Water cyclingWater cycling

WeatheringWeathering

Climate regulation Climate regulation

Pollination Pollination

Evolutionary processes Evolutionary processes

Ecological interactions Ecological interactions

Crops, livestock, fishCrops, livestock, fish

Water availabilityWater availability

TreesTrees

PeatPeat

Wild species diversityWild species diversity

Drinking waterDrinking waterFoodFood

FibreFibreEnergyEnergyNatural medicineNatural medicine

££££££££££££££££££££££££££

££££££££££££££££££££££££££

Final ecosystem Final ecosystem servicesservices

GoodsGoodsValue of Value of goods...goods...

… …ES ES valuevalue

Primary & intermediate Primary & intermediate processesprocesses

PeoplePeopleOther capital Other capital inputsinputs

Natural enemiesNatural enemies

DetoxificationDetoxification

Local climate Local climate

Waste breakdownWaste breakdown

Purified waterPurified water

Stabilising vegetation Stabilising vegetation

Meaningful places Meaningful places Wild species diversity Wild species diversity

Flood controlFlood control

Equable climate Equable climate

Disease controlDisease control

Pollution controlPollution control

Erosion controlErosion control

Good healthGood health

Health and Health and Well-beingWell-being

Food Security

Failing to end hunger Failing to end hunger Undernourishment data versus the MDG Undernourishment data versus the MDG targettarget

Source: Oxfam (2010) Data cited from FAO Hunger Statistics (from 1969 to 2006); Source: Oxfam (2010) Data cited from FAO Hunger Statistics (from 1969 to 2006); UN (2009)UN (2009)

2007-08 2007-08 Food Food price price spikespike

Milli

ons

Milli

ons

Cereal Yield Increases Cereal Yield Increases

Fisheries CollapseFisheries Collapse

Page Page 3131

Climate change scenario effects differClimate change scenario effects differ(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography))

Minimum and Minimum and maximum effect maximum effect from four climate from four climate

scenariosscenarios

Food security: options to increase productionFood security: options to increase production Embed economic, environmental and social sustainability into Embed economic, environmental and social sustainability into

agricultural policies, practices and technologiesagricultural policies, practices and technologies Today’s hunger problems can be addressed with appropriate use of Today’s hunger problems can be addressed with appropriate use of

current technologies, emphasizing agro-ecological practices (e.g., current technologies, emphasizing agro-ecological practices (e.g., no/low till, IPM, INRM), coupled with decreased post-harvest lossesno/low till, IPM, INRM), coupled with decreased post-harvest losses Small-scale farmers need access to the best seeds, financing and Small-scale farmers need access to the best seeds, financing and

access to markets access to markets Advances in S&T are always a needed but cannot be fully utlilzed Advances in S&T are always a needed but cannot be fully utlilzed

without rural development, institutional and governance reformwithout rural development, institutional and governance reform Advanced biotechnologies (genomics) may be needed to address Advanced biotechnologies (genomics) may be needed to address

future demands for increased productivity and emerging issues such future demands for increased productivity and emerging issues such as climate change and new plant and animal pests – but the risks and as climate change and new plant and animal pests – but the risks and benefits must be fully understood benefits must be fully understood

Access to financing, better seeds, and markets (improved roads0Access to financing, better seeds, and markets (improved roads0

Food security: options to increase productionFood security: options to increase production Provide payments to the farmer for maintaining and enhancing Provide payments to the farmer for maintaining and enhancing

ecosystem servicesecosystem services Empower women – gender sensitive extension services, access to Empower women – gender sensitive extension services, access to

financing, property rightsfinancing, property rights Reform international trade, e.g., eliminate OECD production Reform international trade, e.g., eliminate OECD production

subsidies, eliminate tariff escalation on processed products, subsidies, eliminate tariff escalation on processed products, recognize the special needs of the least developed countries through recognize the special needs of the least developed countries through non-reciprocal market access non-reciprocal market access

Increase public and private sector investment in research and Increase public and private sector investment in research and development, and weather and market informationdevelopment, and weather and market information

Improve public-private-CSO involvement in AKST with Improve public-private-CSO involvement in AKST with accountability for social and environmental outcomesaccountability for social and environmental outcomes

Action on waste and demandAction on waste and demand

• Determines supply Determines supply challenge challenge

• Incentivising the Incentivising the public and private public and private sectorsector

• Empowering the Empowering the consumer consumer

• Need to stimulate Need to stimulate the debate on meatthe debate on meat

Waste in different countriesWaste in different countries

Governance, Grass Roots, Education, Training and Knowledge

Better Governance is Essential There are serious short-comings in the decision making There are serious short-comings in the decision making

systems at local, national and global levels systems at local, national and global levels The rules and institutions for decision making are influenced The rules and institutions for decision making are influenced

by vested by vested interests with an interest in the status quointerests with an interest in the status quo Effective change in governance demands action to Effective change in governance demands action to

establish transparent means for holding those in power to establish transparent means for holding those in power to account account • Local level public hearings and social audits to give Local level public hearings and social audits to give

voice to marginalized groupsvoice to marginalized groups• National level, parliamentary and press oversightNational level, parliamentary and press oversight• Globally, we must find better means to agree and Globally, we must find better means to agree and

implement measures to achieve collective goalsimplement measures to achieve collective goals Governance failures also occur because decisions are Governance failures also occur because decisions are

being made in sectoral compartments, with being made in sectoral compartments, with environmental, social and economic dimensions environmental, social and economic dimensions addressed by separate, competing structuresaddressed by separate, competing structures

Learn from Grass Roots Actions Decision makers should learn from ongoing grass-roots Decision makers should learn from ongoing grass-roots

actions and knowledge in areas such as energy, food, actions and knowledge in areas such as energy, food, water, natural resources, finance and governancewater, natural resources, finance and governance

This is key, not the least in rural communities with a This is key, not the least in rural communities with a view to their management, control and ownership of view to their management, control and ownership of these resourcesthese resources

There is a need to scale-up the grass roots actions by There is a need to scale-up the grass roots actions by bringing together a complementary top-down and bringing together a complementary top-down and bottom-up approach to addressing these issuesbottom-up approach to addressing these issues

Global cooperation can be improved by building on on-Global cooperation can be improved by building on on-going regional cooperation to deal with common going regional cooperation to deal with common sustainable development issues sustainable development issues

Training, Education, Research and Assessments are Critical

Effective training programs for decision makers in Effective training programs for decision makers in business and government to learn how to:business and government to learn how to:• integrate programs and policies within sustainability integrate programs and policies within sustainability

constraints, and constraints, and • acquire the skills to strategically move towards such acquire the skills to strategically move towards such

sustainability goalssustainability goals

Increase investments in education for allIncrease investments in education for all

Multi-disciplinary research – “Future Earth Initiative”Multi-disciplinary research – “Future Earth Initiative”

Assessments of knowledge – need to be coordinatedAssessments of knowledge – need to be coordinated

The Time to Act is NowIf we are to achieve our dream, the time to act is now, given:The inertia in the socio-economic systemThe inertia in the socio-economic system

The adverse effects of climate change and loss of The adverse effects of climate change and loss of biodiversity cannot be reversed for centuries or are biodiversity cannot be reversed for centuries or are irreversible (for example, species loss)irreversible (for example, species loss)

We know enough to act - we are facing a problem of risk We know enough to act - we are facing a problem of risk management on an immense scalemanagement on an immense scale

Failure to act will impoverish current and future Failure to act will impoverish current and future generationsgenerations