enterprise roundtable mega-session telephony market outlook the transition to ip
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Enterprise Roundtable Mega-Session Telephony Market Outlook The Transition to IP. Mike Robinson CTO www.citel.com. IP Telephony Is Compelling. Seamless Scalability Lower Operating Cost Better Disaster Resistance Revolutionary Features: Computer-Telephone Integration (CTI) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Bridging Two Worlds
www.citel.com
Enterprise Roundtable Mega-Session
Telephony Market OutlookThe Transition to IP
Mike RobinsonCTO
www.citel.com
Bridging Two Worlds
www.citel.com
IP Telephony Is Compelling
Seamless ScalabilityLower Operating CostBetter Disaster Resistance
Revolutionary Features:
- Computer-Telephone Integration (CTI)
- Unified Messaging
- Telecommuter/Branch Office Support
- Web Based Administration
Bridging Two Worlds
www.citel.com
Having It All on TDM PBX
TDM PBX
What’s wrong withthis picture??
Who is being difficult?
WAN or
VPN
WAN or
VPN
IP
IP Trunk Adaptor
RAA
TelecommuterBranch PBX / KTS
AdminServer
PSTNPSTN
VoiceAdaptors
UM Server
CTI Adaptor
IP T. A.
Circuit Trunks
AdminLink
Remote Access
Bridging Two Worlds
www.citel.com
Having It All on an IP PBX
In an IP PBX, the call control application becomes a data application on a standard server platform.
Other applications like CTI, UM, and Web Admin are built in and can run on the same server platform.
All the applications communicate in an IP standard.Additional servers can be added in to provide scale.
Trunk Gateway
Trunks
IP PBXPlusApplications
PSTNPSTN
LAN
LANWAN or
VPN
WAN or
VPN
Bridging Two Worlds
www.citel.com
IP Telephony Takes Over The Market
It’s not a question of “if”, only how fastAnnual Telephone Handset Market Share
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
% M
ark
et
Sh
are
Circuit Switched
IP (per TEQ)
IP (per IDC)
• IDC suggests 50% IP PBX market share in 2005 • InfoTech puts it in the middle – 50% share in 2006.
• Moving a $50B market means rapid growth for IP Telephony, . even though the total phone market is growing slowly
• BUT The rest of the market is still buying circuit switched phones.
• For another few years, most new sales are still circuit switched
Bridging Two Worlds
www.citel.com
Installed Base Lingers LongIt takes a long, long time to drain the ocean
• 315M PBX phones installed w/w (per InfoTech and ABI)• Annual handset sales are a small fraction of the base • Wide majority of new sales today are still circuit switched• At the end of this decade, PBX phone base is still 200M• Later this decade, there will be massive replacement of . TDM PBXs with IP PBX systems.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Millions
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Installed Base of Telephone Handsets
Bridging Two Worlds
www.citel.com
What’s The Holdup?Many predictions from ‘99 would have put
IP at 50% share today. Why isn’t it?
- The Economy- Nothing is going as fast as it was. Carrier capital
crisis has delayed deployment of IP Centrex.
- Sunk Costs / Existing Investment- Massive pre-Y2K PBX buying in ’98 & ’99.
- Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD)- Too many competing standards, too much
proprietary infrastructure.
- Cost/Complexity of IP Deployment- A fully deployed IP Phone is $600 per seat!
- Most LAN’s are NOT ready for IP Telephony
Bridging Two Worlds
www.citel.com
What Is Needed?
What will make IP really take off?
- Economic Recovery- People need to start buying again.
- Better Migratory Solutions- The total system swap out is too big a leap.
- More Open Choices- Better public standards. More interoperability.
- Reduce Cost & Complexity of IP- IP Phones will get cheaper with time.- LAN infrastructure will get upgraded (but slowly).- Migratory solutions also ease the burden.