entering a new phase in the response to aids in africa joint annual meeting of the au conference of...

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Entering a new phase in the Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development Planning and Economic Development Economic Commission for Africa Economic Commission for Africa Addis Ababa, 31 March 2008 Addis Ababa, 31 March 2008

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Page 1: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

Entering a new phase in the Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africaresponse to AIDS in Africa

Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA

Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Developmentand Economic Development

Economic Commission for Africa Economic Commission for Africa

Addis Ababa, 31 March 2008Addis Ababa, 31 March 2008

Page 2: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

HIV prevalence in adults HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 1990−2005in sub-Saharan Africa, 1990−2005

Page 3: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

Top Causes of Death in AfricaTop Causes of Death in Africa

1.1. HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDS2.2. MalariaMalaria3.3. Lower respiratory infectionsLower respiratory infections4.4. Diarrhoeal diseasesDiarrhoeal diseases5.5. Perinatal conditionsPerinatal conditions6.6. Cerebrovasuclar diseaseCerebrovasuclar disease7.7. TuberculosisTuberculosis8.8. Ischaemic heart disease Ischaemic heart disease 9.9. MeaslesMeasles10.10. Road traffic crashes Road traffic crashes

Page 4: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

HIV prevalence and income inequality in

sub-Saharan Africa

Gillespie et al. Poverty, wealth, HIV transmission. AIDS, Volume 21 Supp. November 2007.

Page 5: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

HIV Prevalence by Wealth Quintile of HIV Prevalence by Wealth Quintile of Women in Eight African CountriesWomen in Eight African Countries

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Burkin

a Fas

o

Ghana

Cameroon

Uganda

Kenya

Tanza

nia

Mala

wi

Leso

tho

Poorest

Middle

Wealthiest

Mishra V, Bignami-Van Assche S, Greener R, Vaessen M, Hong R, et al. (2007) HIV infection does not disproportionately affect the poorer in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS (supplement)

Page 6: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

Change in Mean Years of Schooling by Change in Mean Years of Schooling by HIV PrevalenceHIV Prevalence

Jane Forston. Mortality Risk and Human Capital Investment: The Impact of HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa. March 2007

Page 7: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

Number of people receiving ARV therapy in low- and middle-Number of people receiving ARV therapy in low- and middle-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2002—2007income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2002—2007

end-2002

end-2004

end-2003

end-2005

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.2

2.8

Mill

ion

s

Year

2.4

2.6

3.0

0.0

0.2

0.6

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.0

end-2007

end-2006

Page 8: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

Estimated number of people newly infected with HIVEstimated number of people newly infected with HIVin Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2007in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2007

Year

0

1

2

3

4

5

199019911992 199319941995 199619971998 199920002001 200220032004 200520062007

Milli

ons

Upper range

Estimate

Lower range

Number of people newly infected with HIV

Page 9: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

[i] 1996-2005 data: Extracted from 2006 Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic (UNAIDS, 2006)[ii] 1986-1993 data: AIDS in the World II. Edited by Jonathan Mann and Daniel J. M. Tarantola (1996)

Notes: [1] 1986-2000 figures are for international funds only [2] Domestic funds are included from 2001 onwards

Funding Funding Total annual resources available for AIDS, 1986 ‒2007Total annual resources available for AIDS, 1986 ‒2007

Funding Funding Total annual resources available for AIDS, 1986 ‒2007Total annual resources available for AIDS, 1986 ‒2007

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

US$ million

2921623

8.3 billion

Signing of Declaration of Commitment on HIV/AIDS, UNGASS

‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘051986 ‘87 ‘88 ‘89 ‘90 ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95

Less than US$ 1 million

59212

World BankMAP launch

Global Fund

PEPFAR

257

UNAIDS Gates

Foundation

‘06 2007

10 000

8.9 billion

10 billion

Page 10: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

Domestic Public Per Capita Expenditure on AIDS - USD in Domestic Public Per Capita Expenditure on AIDS - USD in Sub-Saharan African Countries by income level (GNI)Sub-Saharan African Countries by income level (GNI)

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

2004 2005 2006 2007

Sub-Saharan Africa - Uppermiddle income

Sub-Saharan Africa - Lowermiddle income

Sub-Saharan Africa - Lowincome

Page 11: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

Resources Required for AIDSResources Required for AIDSSub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa

5,277 6,632 7,974 9,141 9,578 10,437 11,358 12,116 13,209

Resources Required by Scenario (US$ Millions)

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Current Scale-up

Page 12: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

Breakdown of DAC members’ bilateral aid to health and Breakdown of DAC members’ bilateral aid to health and reproductive healthreproductive health

2000-06 commitments, annual averages in USD million, constant 2005 prices2000-06 commitments, annual averages in USD million, constant 2005 prices

OECD, 2007

Page 13: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

Change in Under-Five Mortality Rate in Select Change in Under-Five Mortality Rate in Select Countries with High HIV Prevalence, 1990–2003Countries with High HIV Prevalence, 1990–2003Change in Under-Five Mortality Rate in Select Change in Under-Five Mortality Rate in Select

Countries with High HIV Prevalence, 1990–2003Countries with High HIV Prevalence, 1990–2003

R. Hecht et al. Putting It Together: AIDS and the Millennium Development Goals. PLoS Medicine, 2005

Page 14: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

Epidemic CurvesEpidemic Curves

T.Barnett, A.Whiteside

T1 T2 Time

Numbers

A1A2

HIV prevalence

B1

A

B

AIDS - cumulative

Impact

Page 15: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

Volatility in Aid for Health, Selected Countries, Volatility in Aid for Health, Selected Countries, 1999–20031999–2003

Volatility in Aid for Health, Selected Countries, Volatility in Aid for Health, Selected Countries, 1999–20031999–2003

Source: World Health Organization, 2006

Page 16: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

MOH MOEC

MOF

PMO

PRIVATE SECTORCIVIL SOCIETYLOCALGVT

NACP

CTU

CCAIDS

INT NGO

PEPFAR

Norad

CIDA

RNE

GTZ

SidaWB

UNICEF

UNAIDSWHO

CF

GFATM

USAID

NCTP

NCTP

HSSP

HSSP

GFCCPGFCCPDAC

CCM

T-MAP

3/5

SWAPSWAP

UNTG

PRSP PRSP

200 MUSD

290 MUSD

50 MUSD

60 MUSD

Page 17: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

The Three OnesThe Three Ones

One agreed AIDS action frameworkOne agreed AIDS action framework

One national AIDS coordinating authorityOne national AIDS coordinating authority

One agreed country-level monitoring and One agreed country-level monitoring and evaluation system evaluation system

Page 18: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

Prices (US$/year) of first-line antiretroviral Prices (US$/year) of first-line antiretroviral regimen in Uganda: 1998-2003regimen in Uganda: 1998-2003

Prices (US$/year) of first-line antiretroviral Prices (US$/year) of first-line antiretroviral regimen in Uganda: 1998-2003regimen in Uganda: 1998-2003

Page 19: Entering a new phase in the response to AIDS in Africa Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference

Optimal Management?Optimal Management?Enormous variation in unit costsEnormous variation in unit costs

$1

$10

$100

$1000

0 10 100 1000 10,000

Annual Clients Completing VCT (scale)

Co

st p

er V

CT

Co

mp

lete

d (

un

it c

ost

)

MexicoUgandaRussiaIndiaSouth Africa

S. Bertozzi