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Entera Bio Ltd
Company Valuation
May 2016
2
Disclaimer
This work is composed by GSE Financial Advisory Ltd. (“GSE”) for Entera Bio Ltd (“Entera” and/or “the Company”), following valuation for 31.12.2014 and for 30.09.2015. The work is
intended solely for Entera’s 31.3.2016 financial report.
For the purpose of composing this work, we have relied on information and/or explanations and/or forecasts and/or exhibits the Company and/or anyone on its behalf have provided us
with. GSE assumes that this information is credible and does not perform an independent examination of the information. Also, nothing which may point to the data being unreasonable
has come to our attention. The data has not been examined in an independent manner, and therefore the work presented to you does not constitute a verification of these data's
correctness, completeness and accuracy. An economic evaluation should reflect in a reasonable and fair manner a given state of being at a given time, based on known data, while
considering the basic assumptions and estimated forecasts. Additionally, we have relied on external data sources, as described in the Appendix.
This work does not constitute a due diligence review and is not to replace such. In addition, this work is not intended to determine the Company's value for a specific investor, and there
is nothing within this work to constitute any legal advice or opinion.
This work does not include any accounting auditing regarding the compliance with the accounting rules. GSE is not liable for the manner of the Company's accounting presentation of
the financial reports in all that regards the accuracy and completeness of the data and the implications of that accounting presentation, as far as such exist.
This work includes a description of the methodological principles and analysis principles. The description refers to the main substantial work practices which we have implemented, and
does not constitute a complete and detailed description of the Company and its environment.
If the case may be that the data GSE has relied upon is not complete nor accurate or credible, the results of this work might change. We reserve the right to return and update this work
in light of new data which might have not been brought before us. To remove all doubt, this work is valid only for the time it has been signed.
This work includes prospective information, as its definition in the Securities Law, 5728-1968, obtained, among others from the Company. In this opinion of ours, we referred to, among
others, the estimates, forecasts and appraisals we have been provided with by the Company's management. The realization of this information is not certain. The information is based
in part on information which existed in the Company prior to writing this work, as well as on various assumptions and anticipations regarding both the Company as well as many
external factors; including the state of the market in which the Company operates, the potential competitors and the general state of the market. It shall be emphasized that there is no
certainty that such assumptions or anticipations shall be actualized, in whole or in part.
We hereby confirm that we hold no dependency on the Company, excluding the fact that we are being paid for composing this work. Also, we hereby confirm that our fees are not
dependent on the outcomes of the work.
We hereby confirm that we have no personal stake in the Company/ controlling shareholder.
GSE and any company controlled by it directly and/or indirectly as well as any controlling shareholder, officer and employee in any of such, are not liable for any damage, loss of profit
or expense of any kind and nature, including direct and/or indirect, which might incur to anyone relying on the mentioned in this work, in whole or in part. To remove all doubt, it is
hereby clarified that nothing in this work constitutes an offer or recommendation or opinion regarding the profitability of the purchase of the Company's securities/ executing the
transaction.
The Company shall not be entitled to receive from us, whether due to contract or damages, in accordance with the law or otherwise, any sum due to loss of profits, data or reputation,
or due to any consequential damage, random or indirect, or as special or punitive damages regarding any lawsuits resulting from services provided within this work or which are related
in any other way with the services provided by us within this work. All, whether the likeliness of such loss or damage has been expected or not, in the case where we have not acted
with gross negligence and / or malice.
3
Details of Assessing Company
Giza Singer Even
Giza Singer Even is Israel’s largest economic and financial advisory and investment banking firm. The firm has extensive expe rience
in accompanying the largest companies, the most prominent privatizations and the most important deals in the Israeli economy, which
it has accumulated over its thirty years of activity. Giza Singer Even is active in three areas, via independent business divisions:
economic consulting; investment banking; analytical research and corporate governance.
This paper was prepared by a team headed by Nir Harush, Head of Financial Advisory Services, CPA with a BA and MBA in , with 14
years of experience in the field of economics corporate finance.
Respectfully,
GSE Financial Advisory Ltd.
Date: 24.05.2016
4
Company Overview
5
Business Card
Entera was founded in 2009, in Israel, by Dr. Phillip
Schwartz and commenced operations in August
2010 with financing by DNA and logistic support
from Oramed Pharmaceuticals
The Company focuses on the development and
commercialization of orally delivered protein and
other large molecule therapeutics
Entera holds a patent, combining two technologies:
• Synthetic molecule absorption enhancer,
facilitating the absorption of large molecules
• Proprietary formulation to prevent molecule
degradation
The drugs are designated for two medical
conditions: Hypo-Parathyroidsm and
Osteoporosis
The company has succesfully completed a
phase 2a of the clinical trial in Hypo-
Parathyroidsm patients
Company Description Management(1)
Key
Personnel Role Experience
Dr. Phillip
Schwartz CEO
• Biotech and Pharmaceutical
experience
• Research experience
Mira
Rosensweig CFO
• Financial and executive
management
Dr. Hillel
Galitzer COO
• Early stage Biotech
• Medical research
• Osteoporosis research
Dr. Miriam
Blum CMO
• Pharmaceutical clinical trial
experience
• Residency in internal medicine &
fellowships in endocrinology &
bone metabolism
Shareholder Non diluted Fully diluted
DNA 69.9% 51.44%
Centillion Fund 18.7% 17.91%
Phillip Schwartz - 7.34%
Private investors 9.4% 15.7%
Others 2% 7.61%
Shareholders (31.03.2016)(1)
(1) Source: the Company
6
Target Conditions
Entera targets two medical conditions - Hypoparathyroidsm and Osteoporosis
Hypo-Parathyroidism is a disorder in which the
parathyroid glands of the neck are absent, or
do not produce sufficient parathyroid hormone
(PTH)
The incidence of severe Hypo-Parathyroidism
is estimated at 100,000 patients in the US and
180,000 patients worldwide (orphan disease)
Hypo-Parathyroidism leads to a number of
serious clinical issues including peripheral
neuropathies, electrolyte imbalances and even
fatalities
NPS(1) (acquired by SHIRE in 2015 for $5.2 B)
received an FDA approval for the use of the
PTH hormone for Hypo-Parathyroid treatment
(Natpara) (2) . Shire made Natpara available on
April 1, 2015(3) at an annual cost of $100k
(1) NPS (acquired by SHIRE the main competitor of Entera’s Hypo-Parathyroid treatment
(2) http://www.nasdaq.com/article/nps-hormone-drug-gets-fda-approval-20150123-00697
(3) http://investors.shire.com/~/media/Files/S/Shire-IR/quarterly-reports/2015/q2-2015-earning
Hypo-Parathyroidism Osteoporosis
a systemic skeletal disease characterized by
low bone mass, deterioration of bone tissue
and increased bone fragility and susceptibility
to fracture
It most commonly affects older populations,
primarily postmenopausal women
The condition can even be fatal, as 25% of
those who fracture a hip will die within six
months of injury
Injectable osteoporosis medications currently
account for more than 20% of the market
(Monetary) and sales of more than $2.5bn per
annum
7
Entera’s Solution
Currently, there are few possible treatments for Osteoporosis, including a once daily hormone injection.
For Hypo-Parathyroidism, NPS’ (acquired by SHIRE) newly approved drug Natpara, replaces the missing
hormone by a daily injection of the missing PTH hormone
• An oral dosage form of PTH would be superior for two main reasons:
− In Hypo-Parathyroidism, the FDA declared, that a once daily treatment is inferior to multiple daily
doses, which can easily be administered orally (1)
− There is material advantage in the convenience for the patients in taking an oral drug, and for
physicians with adjusting patients’ dosage
Entera’s oral delivered PTH hormone will substituted the current solution of injectable hormone,
providing a combination of efficacy, tolerability and convenience
The solution combines
A patented technology, addressing two aspects of oral drug delivery’s hurdles:
• A proprietary synthetic chemical complex, which enables molecular transport of large molecules such
as hormones through the intestinal wall
• A proprietary molecular protection system, which prevents drug break down and significantly extends
the half life of delivered entities in the gut
With an effective hormone drug (PTH) - an extensively studied hormone, commercially available as
a treatment for Osteoporosis, FDA approved since Dec 2002(2)
Creating the first effective oral treatment for Hypo-Parathyroidism and Osteoporosis
1
2
1 2
(1) https://www.pharmamedtechbi.com/~/media/Supporting%20Documents/The%20Pink%20Sheet%20DAILY/2014/September/Natpara_FDA_brfg.pdf
(2) https://www.centerwatch.com/drug-information/fda-approved-drugs/drug/812/forteo-teriparatide
8
Key Milestones
Osteoporosis Hypo-Parathyroid General & Finance
Date Milestone
Oct 2009 Incorporation
Aug 2010 Commenced operation
Jan 2011
DNA purchased 47% of
Entera from Oramed (stock
& cash) - $1.8m valuation
Oramed transferred the
patent rights - 3% royalties
and back-licensing
May 2011 Additional $500K from DNA
Sep 2012 $1.15m in convertible loans
- $9.3m valuation
Nov 2013 $635K round - $12.5m
valuation
Feb 2014
$5m round + $1.125m in
preferred shares - $22.5m
pre-money valuation
Date Milestone Date Milestone
Sep 2010 Oral formulation was tested in pigs and rats
Aug 2011 1st human test
Jan 2012
Multi stage phase 1 - more than 30 subjects and over 16 months duration. Till this
stage the development was for Osteo but also provided results that enabled the
Hypo phase 2
Jun 2013
Successful formulation was
developed
Plans for phase 2
commenced
Aug 2013 Complete phase 1a trial
Jan 2014 FDA Orphan Drug application
submitted
Apr 2014 FDA grants Orphan Drug
status
9
Key Milestones (Cont’d)
Date Milestone
Dec 2014
Signed engagement with a
leading American
underwriter for a US IPO
Date Milestone
Jul 2014 Multi centre phase 2a trial
Q3 2015 Successful completion of
phase 2a trial
Q4 2016 UK /US phase 2b
Q1 2017
IND phase 3 submission
Q3 2017 Multi centre phase 3
Q3-4 2018 Study report for phase 3 trial
Submit NDA/BLA to FDA
Date Milestone
Q4 2014
Phase 1 b trial - formulation
optimisation for large scale
manufacture
Q3 2016 Phase 2a trial in small cohort
- 6 months
Q3 2016 Pre-IND preparation
Q4 2016 IND submission for phase 2
Q1 2017 Phase 2b trial
Q2 2017 Partner with large pharma -
phase 3 development
Q4 2019 Study report for phase 3 trial
Submit NDA/BLA to FDA
Osteoporosis Hypo-Parathyroid General & finance
Aug 2015
The company received a
convertible loan - $2
million
10
Recent Developments
On 2 February 2014 Entera announced raising $5m in private placement, indicating a valuation of
$22.5m pre-money
Additional investments (on the same pre-money valuation of $22.5m):
• During 2014 additional investments of $1.1m, and $25k by a private investor in January 2015
On 24 April 2014, Entera received an Orphan Drug status from the FDA for Hypo-Parathyroidisim
2014: Entera acquired the necessary equipment and facilities for larger scale production (for phase 2
trials) scaling up from 100 to over 1,000 tablets a day and still adjusting its production capacities
Following a successful phase 1, Entera conducted an additional clinical trial with the focus of examining
production scale up and food interaction
• The trial’s goal of scale up validation was completed on 10 patients, and as a result the Company has
the production capacity needed for phase 2
• A second cohort was subsequently enrolled for additional process optimization. The study showed
significantly higher bioavailability and lower variability (similar to the available injection, and surpassing
other oral delivery technologies).
On September 2014 the FDA published a briefing document(1) regarding Natpara (a competitor drug
manufactured by NPS for Hypo-Parathyroidisim), stating that a lower and more frequent dosing regimen
will likely provide a better control on hypercalciuria - strengthening the premise for an oral based
medication
On December 2014 Entera announced a signed engagement with a leading US underwriter for a
US IPO
(1) https://www.pharmamedtechbi.com/~/media/Supporting%20Documents/The%20Pink%20Sheet%20DAILY/2014/September/Natpara_FDA_brfg.pdf
11
Recent Developments (Cont’d)
July 2015 : Entera announced phase 2a trial completed successfully
-On August 2014 Entera initiated a pilot study to assess the safety and efficacy of oral PTH (1-34) in the
treatment of Hypo-Parathyroidisim.
-17 patients used oral PTH (1-34) for 4 months during the trial
-The oral PTH (1-34) was used by the patients more than 8,000 times
-The trial met its primary endpoint for both safety and efficacy
August 2015 : Entera raised approximately $2m in convertible loan
The company estimates a two quarters delay in milestones due to an updated capital raising
schedule. Due to the necessity of capital raising to the continuous operations of the company, we
incorporated such risk in our current valuation
Based on the company’s forecast, it will start selling in Q1 2019 for the Hypo-Parathyroidisim, and
in H-2 2020 for Osteoporosis. This timeline reflects a two quarters delay compared to previous
valuation in the Hypo-Parathyroidisim selling (for 09/2015)
(1) https://www.pharmamedtechbi.com/~/media/Supporting%20Documents/The%20Pink%20Sheet%20DAILY/2014/September/Natpara_FDA_brfg.pdf
12
Business Strategy and Competitive Edge
Entera has a proprietary drug delivery technology, on which it can develop new oral formulations
Commercialization
• Entera will initially focus on developing the oral treatment for Hypo-Parathyroidism
• Oral treatment for Osteoporosis would be a second product also based on the technology and the
same API (PTH) but would be a different formulation, dose and treatment regimen
• At a later stage, the Company could extend the development to other proteins or large molecules
Business model
• Entera is still in early stages of clinical trials, and therefore does not operate a sales team, at the
moment
• At the appropriate stage, Entera plans on partnering with a large pharmaceutical company for the
marketing stage
• In the final stages of the clinical trials for Osteoporosis, the Company will try to form a partnership,
whereby the partner will support the trials, regulatory approvals and registrations. For Hypo the
company plans to form a partnership for the commercial sales stage only.
Competitive Edge
• Entera is utilizing one patent that addresses two aspects of the oral drug delivery hurdles (protein
degradation and lack of absorption). Additional PCTs have been filed and more are expected
• Additional patents (PCTs) have been filed in 2015 and more are expected in the near future.
• The actual hormone treatment (PTH) is already an approved treatment by the FDA
• The technology, enables a synergetic solution for oral drug delivery with the most effective hormone
treatment
13
Market Analysis
14 http://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/hyperparathyroidism/basics/causes/con-20022086
Acquired Hypo-Parathyroidism - The most
common cause of Hypo-Parathyroidism
develops after accidental damage to or
removal of the parathyroid glands during
surgery. This surgery may be a treatment for
diseases of the nearby thyroid gland, or for
throat cancer or neck cancer.
Autoimmune disease - The immune system
creates antibodies against the parathyroid
tissues, trying to reject them as if they were
foreign bodies.
Hereditary Hypo-Parathyroidism - Either the
parathyroid glands aren't present at birth, or
they don't work properly.
Hypo-Parathyroidism is decreased function of
the parathyroid glands with underproduction
of parathyroid hormone.
Can lead to low levels of calcium in the blood
often causing cramping and twitching of
muscles or tetany (involuntary muscle
contraction), and several other symptoms.
What is Hypo-Parathyroidism?
Hypo - Parathyroidism Treatment Market
According to markets researches the value of Hypo-Parathyroidism market will increase at a CAGR of
3.3% over the next five years. The market value will also increased from $2.3bn today to $2.62bn till 2019
Causes of Hypo-Parathyroidism
Number of Patients
Chronic Hypo-Parathyroidism affects
approximately 180,000 patients worldwide
In the U.S. this population is believed to total
about 50,000 and may affect a similar number
of patients across Europe
Available western market is about 100,000
patients
15
www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/hyperparathyroidism/basics/causes/con-20022086
Hypo - Parathyroidism Treatment Market (Cont’d)
Recent neck surgery, particularly if the thyroid
was involved
A family history of hypoparathyroidism
Having certain autoimmune or endocrine
conditions, such as Addison's disease, a
condition characterized by a deficit in hormone
production by the adrenal glands
Extensive cancer radiation treatment:
Radiation can result in destruction of the
parathyroid glands, as can radioactive iodine
treatment for hyperthyroidism, occasionally.
Low levels of magnesium in your blood: which
can affect the function of the parathyroid
glands. Normal serum magnesium levels are
required for optimum secretion of parathyroid
hormone.
Risk Factors More Causes
16 http://www.transparencymarketresearch.com/pressrelease/osteoporosis-drugs-market.htm
Reduced sex hormones, particularly in women
Anorexia nervosa and bulimia
Tobacco smoking
Excessive alcohol intake
Reduced calcium and vitamin D
Inactivity or immobility
A progressive bone disease characterized by a
decrease in bone mass and density which can
lead to an increased risk of fracture
In osteoporosis, the bone mineral density
(BMD) is reduced, bone microarchitecture
deteriorates, and the amount and variety of
proteins in bone are altered
Osteoporosis is defined by the World Health
Organization as a bone mineral density of 2.5
standard deviations or more below the mean
peak bone mass Risks Factors
What is Osteoporosis?
Osteoporosis Treatment Market
According to market research the value of osteoporosis treatment market in 2015 will be $8.5bn and is
estimated to reach $8.9bn in 2020, growing at a CAGR of 1.2% averagely from 2014 to 2020
Causes of Osteoporosis
Age - risk increases with age after the mid-30s
Being Caucasian or Asian
Small bone structure
Osteoporosis in the family (a parent or sibling
having the disease, but particularly a parent
having a hip fracture)
Previous fracture during a low-level injury, at
age over 50 years in particular
Number of Patients
Osteoporosis is estimated to affect 200
million worldwide. Of this population 75
million live in western world countries -
U.S.A, Japan and western Europe countries
17
Osteoporosis - Overview
Worldwide osteoporosis causes more than 9m fractures annually resulting in an osteoporotic fracture
every 3 seconds.
As stated, Osteoporosis is estimated to affect 200m people worldwide: (By the following segmentation)
• Age 60- 10%
• Age 70- 20%
• Age 80- 40%
• Age 90- 66%
The disease affects in estimation 75 million people in Europe, USA and Japan which is considered
to be a more accessible markets
The osteoporosis therapeutics market is the primary reason for the continued growth of the global bone
metabolism sector.
The strong performance of the osteoporosis market is expected to continue, with GBI research predicting
it will help the overall bone metabolism therapeutics market reach a value of $27.1bn by 2018.
18
Orphan Drug - Overview
An orphan drug, is a dedicated route to manufacture, market and approve a unique product which is used
by special populations. The US Drug Administration encourages the pharmaceutical companies to
develop drugs for special populations suffering from rare medical conditions with incentives
Due to the small consumer market and relatively high development costs pharmaceutical companies
have low interest in developing such kind of products
The orphan drug act 1983 defined a patient population (up to 200,000 people in the United States) and
offers governmental incentive to pharmacy companies such as:
• Seven years of market exclusivity. Even if the patent period ends, the company will be able to continue
sell of the drug without competition
• Tax relives, Grants and government subsidies for R&D and more
Females, White and Hispanics are more likely to suffer from Hypo-Parathyroidism than other gender and
races. The prevalence of Hypo-Parathyroidism increases with age:
• Age 12 - 19: ~2%
• Age 65: ~15%
19
Drug Costs - Insurance Participation
Source: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) and the Colorado Thyroid Disease Prevalence Study
Osteoporosis treatments typically are
considered medically necessary and covered
by health insurance when prescribed by a
doctor
For patients covered by health insurance,
typical out-of-pocket costs would include a
prescription drug usually ranging
from $5 to $150, depending on which drug is
used and how the insurance company
classifies the specific drug
Osteoporosis
Despite the cost, insurers are usually willing to
pay for the therapies because they have few
members who need them and the drugs can
be lifesaving
Hypo - Parathyroidism
20
Phases of Clinical Research
Clinical trials involving new drugs are commonly classified into four phases
If the drug successfully passes through Phases I, II, and III, it will usually be approved by the national
regulatory authority for use in the general population
Source: Nature Publishing Group - ‘A better prescription for drug-development financing, August 2007
Phase Primary Goal
Pre-clinical Testing in non-human subjects, to gather efficacy, toxicity and pharmacokinetic information
Phase 0 Oral bioavailability and half-life of the drug
Phase 1 Testing of drug on healthy volunteers for dose-ranging
Phase 2 Testing of drug on patients to assess efficacy and safety
Phase 3 Testing of drug on patients to assess efficacy, effectiveness and safety
Phase 4 Post-marketing surveillance - watching drug use in public
21
Competitors
22
Eli Lilly & Company – Forteo (Osteoporosis Treatment)
Eli Lilly is a public medical company listed on NASDAQ (Market Cap-over $80 B)1.
Among different products Eli Lily offers the Forteo injected drug
This drug is a recombinant form of a hormone secreted by the parathyroid and called the parathyroid
hormone or PTH. Exists naturally in the body and increases bone density and bone strength in order to
help prevent fractures, especially, in treating Osteoporosis and for other medical uses
The drug is injected in the thigh or abdomen through an easy-to-use delivery device. The drug must be
injected and can’t be taken in any other way or form.
The annual revenue generated by Forteo was $1,322m in 2014 and $1,348.3m in 2015. The revenue is
expected to grow annually in CAGR of 3.82% up to $1,497m in 2019
Source: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) and the Colorado Prevalence Study
1.Source: Yahoo Finance
23
NPS Pharmaceuticals – Natpara (Hypo-Parathyroidism Treatment)
NPS, acquired by Shire Plc in 2015,specializes in rare-disease drugs. Its Gattex injections treat a
potentially deadly bowel disorder that diminishes the body’s ability to absorb nutrients and fluids. Gattex
had $142m sales in 2015
The market for rare-disease treatments is considered attractive, despite a small number of patients,
because companies can increase prices dramatically - as in Gattex case.
Natpara is another rare-disease drug which treats hormone underproduction situation called Hypo-
Parathyroidism and is already approved in U.S.A.
NPS Revenues in 2014 according to its financial statement were $384m, with an EBITDA margin of 14%
On January 2015, Shire Plc. Acquired NPS for $5.2 Billion
Natpara had $ 24.4m sales during 2015
24
Public Pharma companies - Financial Data
(1) Based on Analysis Report – J.P Morgan North America Equity Research (19/12/2014) ; Market Cap is as of J.P.Morgan’s report
Company(1) Rev. (M$) COGS
Margin Market Cap EBITDA
Margin
EBIT
Margin EV/Rev. EV/EBITDA
Bristol - Mayers 15,395 25% 101,519 23% 25% 6.51X 28.5X
Eli Lilly & company 20,351 24% 77,142 20% 23% 4.21X 21.1X
Merck & Co. 40,051 24% 171,690 33% 36% 4.75X 14.11X
Pfizer Inc. 47,287 18% 204,703 38% 39% 4.37X 11.33X
Mylan Inc. 10,582 42% 22,578 24% 28% 2.85X 11.17X
Valeant
Pharmaceuticals 9,029 24% 48,805 39% 51% 6.98X 17.4X
NPS 384.4 7% 4,008 14% - 11.62X 70.45X
Average (w/o NPS) 23,782 26% 30% 34% 4.94X 17.26X
Average (w/ NPS) 20,439 23% 27% - 5.98X 24.86X
25
NPS & Eli Lilly Competitor Products - Global Market Data
Natpara & Forteo Market Model Projection – Analysis Reports
NPS - Natpara 2016E 2017E 2018E E2019 2020E
Patients worldwide
Cost / patient $54k $55k $56k $57k $58k
Disease Incidents 130,381 131,614 132,859 134,115 135,384
Expected Penetration 6.4% 9.8% 14.1% 17.9% 20.9%
Number of Patients 2,365 4,703 8,053 11,027 14,055
Total Sales $148M $234M $404M $570M $727M
Eli Lilly - Forteo 2016E 2017E 2018E E2019 2020E
Patients worldwide
Cost / patient(1) Approximately $14k
Total Sales $1,409M $1,436M $1,446M $1,171M $1,063M
26
Valuation Analysis
27
Valuation Methodology
A DCF analysis was applied for this valuation
The discounted cash flows method is a commonly accepted method in the theory of finance
A DCF analysis is appropriate and reasonable as long as the basic assumptions it is based on are correct
and accurate, as known at the valuation date
The analysis is sensitive to the determination of the appropriate discount rate, which by itself is not an
easy task and is somewhat subjective
The calculation of the applied discount rate is shown in the following slide
Discounted Cash Flows (DCF)
28
Value Parameter
22.0% Cost of equity
- D/V
22.0% WACC
Valuation Methodology (Cont’d)
For the purpose of the valuation, we used a rounded Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 22%
We used the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to
determine the required return on the Company’s
equity, and made certain assumptions to determine the
Company’s appropriate capital structure
Cost of equity:
1. US Treasury Real Long-Term Rates, as of March 31, 2016
2. The market premium is estimated at 6.25%, based on
Damodaran Online
3. According to Duff & Phelps, 10z docile 2015
4. In order to determine the Company’s Beta, we selected a
number of publicly traded companies which operate in the
Pharma segment
5. Specific risk premium added based on GSE’s professional
opinion regarding the risk related to the delay in capital
raising schedule
Below is the list of companies used for the beta
calculation:
WACC summary
The following tables summarizes the WACC calculation:
Note Value Parameter 1 0.8% Risk-free interest
2 6.25% Market Premium
3 12.0% Size risk
4 0.7 Beta
5 4.0% Specific risk
22.0% Cost of equity (rounded)
Unlevered Beta Company
0.6 Eli Lilly and Company
0.7 Shire
0.5 Abbott Laboratories
0.9 Bayer AG
0.7 Pfizer Inc.
0.9 Novartis AG
0.9 Roche Holding AG
0.7 Merck & Co. Inc.
1.0 AbbVie Inc.
0.6 Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
0.9 Amgen Inc.
0.7 Average
29
Valuation Methodology (Cont’d)
Since the Company is still in the process of clinical trials, a probability factor is applied
The nature of clinical trials indicates that not all
companies will achieve regulatory approval,
and therefore the cash flows assumed for the
valuation analysis are subject to probability of
success
Based on a research including studies with
novel APIs (1) taking inventory of a large
number of clinical studies, here are the
probabilities for entering the next phase
(1) Trends in Risk Associated with New Drug Development: Success Rates for Investigational Drugs JA DiMasi, L Feldman, A Seckler and A Wilson
Probability Factor Factor Applied for the Company
For a company just entering phase 1, the
probability of reaching the market is:
• 71%*44%*86%*80%=21%
The Company has already completed phase
2a and intend to start phase 2b clinical trials,
and therefore the probability of reaching the
market is higher
We are applying the full risk of probability for
phase 2, since trail (phase 2b) not completed
yet. Therefore the probability of Entera
reaching the market is:
• 44%*86%*80%=30%
For the R&D expenses, we have applied the
probability factor based on the relevant phase
Current Phase Probability of entering
the next phase
Phase 1 71%
Phase 2 44%
Phase 3 86%
Registration 80%
30
Main Assumptions - General
Both treatments are prescribed medications that most probably will be covered by patients’ medical
insurance
In this analysis, we have assumed that the company will raise material equity to serve the needed
investments up until 2018
The company estimates a two quarters delay in milestones due to an updated capital raising
schedule. Due to the necessity of capital raising to the continuous operations of the company, we
incorporated such risk in our current valuation
Based on the company’s forecast, it will start selling in Q1 2019 for the Hypo-Parathyroidisim, and in
H-2 2020 for Osteoporosis. This timeline reflects a two quarters delay for Hypo -Parathyroidisim
compared to previous valuation (for 09/2015)
The company has modified the R&D forecast from the 9/2015 valuation’s forecast to reflect the delay
We have not taken into account in our valuation analysis the development of future treatments, other than
the treatments for stated two conditions
The Company’s patent, that is relevant for Hypo-Parathyroidisim treatment and for Osteoporosis treatment
will expire on 2029. The Company does not plan to compete in the generic drugs market, and therefore, we
did not assume additional revenues from these medications post 2029.
Revenue:
• Concluded based on the estimation for the number of patients per year and the average annual price per
patient.
− Important to emphasize that these conditions are chronic, and as such, the treatment is not a one-time
process (i.e. the majority of the patients are repeated patients)
31
Main Assumptions - General (Cont’d)
COGS:
• The majority of the manufacturing will be outsourced to an external contractor
• Analysis of comparable companies shows an average COGS margin of 23%. We have applied
additional 10% as the company does not have the size benefits of the comparables
In 2018, there is a one-time royalty payment to the OCS of $450k
CAPEX:
• The Company will need to invest in equipment and facilities for part of the manufacturing process
Royalties:
• As per the agreement with Oramed(1), Entera is obliged to pay Oramed 3% of the gross profit (post
sales and marketing)
R&D:
• The majority of the R&D expenses are the costs for the clinical trials (adjusted to the two quarters
delay)
• Once the drug is FDA approved, there are very minimal additional costs
(1) Royalties calculation is based on an agreement with Oramed, as quoted by the Company
Company Bristol -
Mayers Eli Lily Merck Pfizer Mylan Valeant NPS Average
COGS margin 25% 24% 24% 18% 42% 24% 7% 23%
32
Main Assumptions - Hypo-Parathyroidisim
Hypo-Parathyroidisim is an orphan drug, and as such is protected for a period of 7 years from start of
sales
• The Company assumes it will complete the necessary trials, and receive an FDA approval by Q4 2018,
reflecting two quarters delay than previously estimated, and start selling in Q1/2019. Therefore, the
protection period is until the beginning of Q1 2026 instead of Q3 2025
Number of patients:
• 2019: start sales with 3,500 patients (c. 5% of total market and c. 9% of the Western market(1)).
• We have assumed growing penetration growth, stabling at 20% of the Western market and c. 11% of
total market (lower than the expected penetration rate of Natpara)
− In orphan drugs there is usually a tendency for faster growth rates
• Post Orphan protection, we believe the company will start losing market share due to new entrants,
and have assumed a 10% decrease in market share every year, up until 2029.
• Due to the delay in the sales from Q3 2018 to Q1 2019, the partial growth for each year is being taking
into account for the revenues calculation.
(1) Includes the US, Europe and Japan
(2) Calculated as 0.5*20% + 0.5*0.9*20% to reflect the delay in the orphan protection
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
% of world
market 2% 5% 8% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6%
% of western
market 3% 9% 15% 20% 20% 20% 20%2 19% 16% 15% 13% 12%
33
Main Assumptions - Hypo-Parathyroidisim (Cont’d)
Pricing model:
• The company estimates a launching price around $50k per year, per patient..
• To be conservative, we have applied a discount rate of 50% on the above estimated price, for the
launching price, i.e. $25k(1)
• Once the orphan drug protection terminate, we are assuming there will be a minimal price drop, due to
competition, to c.$21.3k (15% drop).
Sales and Marketing:
• The Company assumes start of sales Q1 2019 is the launch year, and as such the sales and marketing
expenses are expected to be relatively high. Estimated to be 50% of revenue in 2019 will be paid for
marketing costs in 2018 and 50% of revenue in 2019 will be paid in 2019.
• From 2020 onwards we are assuming sales and marketing to stable at 30% of revenues, slightly higher
than industry average
34
Main Assumptions - Osteoporosis
The Company assumes it will complete the necessary trials, and receive an FDA approval for marketing
& sell by 2020
Number of patients:
• 2020: start sells with 10,000 patients (compared with total market of 200m patients and 75m in the
western world(1)
• We have assumed growing penetration rate, stabling at 0.1% of the Western market
Pricing model:
• Similar drugs in the market (injection based) cost, approximately, $14k per year, per patient
• To be conservative, we have applied a discount rate of 50% on the above price, for the launching
price, i.e. $7k
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
% of world
market 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
% of western
market 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
(1) Includes the US, Europe and Japan
35
Main Assumptions - Osteoporosis (Cont’d)
Sales and Marketing:
• The Company assumes start of sales in Q3 2020, and as such the sales and marketing expenses are
expected to be relatively high. Estimated to be 60% of revenue through commercial JV with other
pharma company.
• Additionally, the company has assumed start of marketing efforts in 2019 - estimated at half the level of
2020, as the company will already have a S&M team in place, and will only need to increase
accordingly
• From 2021 onwards we are assuming sales and marketing to stable at 30% of revenues, slightly higher
than industry average
36
Forecasted Cash Flows
($m) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Revenues:
- - - - - 88 219 388 521 525 529 532 509 372 337 305
- - - - - - 35 140 315 525 709 790 796 801 807 813
Total revenues - - - - 88 254 528 836 1,050 1,237 1,323 1,305 1,173 1,144 1,118 Revenue growth 190% 108% 58% 26% 18% 7% -1% -10% -2% -2%
COGS:
Hypo. - - - - 29 73 130 174 176 177 178 170 124 113 102
Osteo. - - - - - 12 47 105 176 237 264 266 268 270 272
Total COGS - - - - 29 85 177 280 351 414 443 437 393 383 374
Gross profit - - - - 58 169 352 557 699 823 880 868 781 761 744 Gross margin 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67%
S&M:
Hypo. - - - 44 44 66 116 156 158 159 160 153 112 101 92
Osteo. - - - - 11 21 56 95 158 213 237 239 240 242 244
Total S&M - - - 44 54 87 172 251 315 371 397 392 352 343 335
Royalties - - - 0 0 2 5 9 12 14 14 14 13 13 12
R&D - 5 26 44 56 40 8 5 6 7 8 7 7 7 7
G&A - - 2 3 5 9 18 28 36 43 45 43 41 39 39 % of revenue 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Depreciation 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3
EBIT (0) (5) (28) (92) (58) 30 147 262 328 386 414 410 365 356 348 EBIT margin -67% 12% 28% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31%
Tax - - - - - - - 63 82 97 103 102 91 89 87
Profit, after tax (0) (5) (28) (92) (58) 30 147 200 246 290 310 307 274 267 261
CAPEX 0 0 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Depreciation 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3
FCF (100%) (0) (5) (30) (93) (60) 29 145 199 245 289 310 307 273 267 261
FCF (probability factor)* (0) (5) (16) (35) (26) 7 44 60 74 88 94 93 83 81 79
* Expenses were factored based on clinical phases development. 2015: 100%; 2016: 100%; 2017: 53%; 2018: 44%; 2019: 43%; 2020:34%; 2021 - 2029: 30%
37
Enterprise Value and Sensitivity Analysis
As mentioned above, we have applied:
• A 30% probability factor on the FCF (expenses were factored based on clinical phases development,
taking into account the weight of each treatment in the R&D expenses)
• A rounded 22% WACC
− We have valued Entera’s Enterprise Value at $65.7M
Sensitivity analysis of the EV:
WACC
18% 20% 22% 24% 26%
100.5 81.5 65.7 52.5 41.3
($m) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
FCF (100%) (0) (5) (30) (93) (60) 29 145 199 245 289 310 307 273 267 261
FCF (probability factor) (0) (5) (16) (35) (26) 7 44 60 74 88 94 93 83 81 79
Period - 0.375 1.25 2.25 3.25 4.25 5.25 6.25 7.25 8.25 9.25 10.25 11.25 12.25 13.25
Discount factor 1.00 0.93 0.78 0.64 0.52 0.43 0.35 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.07
Discounted cash flows (0) (5) (12) (22) (14) 3 15 17 18 17 15 12 9 7 6
EV 65.7
38
Equity Value
Net Financial Debt (31.3.2016):
Equity Value:
We have valued Entera’s Equity as of 31.03.2016 in the amount of $64.2M
($m) 31.3.2016
Cash 0.5
Loans (1.9)
Debt component of convertible loan (0.1)
Net Financial Debt (1.5)
($m) 31.3.2016
Enterprise Value 65.7
Net Financial Debt (1.5)
Equity Value 64.2
39
Conclusions
(1) http://investors.shire.com/~/media/Files/S/Shire-IR/quarterly-reports/2015/q2-2015-earning-
release-resultsday-23-Jul-2015
Based on the above mentioned methodology, we have valued Entera’s equity at $64.2m.
Subject to the successful capital raising of the company, we will update Entera’s valuation in the future.
Supporting Analyses:
• There were few material developments during 2015, supporting the decrease in Entera’s valuation:
− The company estimates a two quarters delay in milestones due to an updated capital raising
schedule. Due to the necessity of capital raising to the continuous operations of the company, we
incorporated such risk in our current valuation
− Based on the company’s forecast, it will start selling in Q1 2019 for the Hypo-Parathyroidisim, and in
H-2 2020 for Osteoporosis. This timeline reflects a two quarters delay compared to previous
valuation (for 09/2015)
40
Comparison to previous valuation results
The following detailing of the differences from the current valuation to the previous valuation:
Subject 30.09.2015 31.03.2016 Notes
Revenue Flow
(Hypo-Parathyroidisim) H-2 2018 Q1 2019
Based on the company’s forecast, there
will be a two quarters delay in Hypo-
Parathyroidisim sales. There is no
change in the rest of the forecast years
revenues.
Expenditures
H-2 2018
Q1 2019
In accordance with the delay in the
revenues, expenditures delay is also
expected.
WACC 19% 22%
Due to the two quarters delay in
milestones there is a necessity of capital
raising to the continuous operations of
the company. Therefore, we
incorporated such risk in our current
valuation.
Net Financial Debt - ($1.5M)
The current valuation has also
considered the company’s net financial
debt , in order to value Entera’s equity.
Enterprise Value $76M $65.7M
The decrease in the Enterprise Value
has resulted from the increase in the
company’s WACC as mentioned above.
41
Appendix
42
Data sources
We have based our analysis on the following sources:
• Conversations with management
• Company presentation
• Company’s forecasts
• DNA filings
• Different analysis reports
• Similar companies financial statements
• Publications:
− National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) and the Colorado Thyroid Disease
Prevalence Study
− Nature Publishing Group - ‘A better prescription for drug-development financing, August 2007
− Natpara FDA Briefing - September 2014
• Trends in Risk Associated with New Drug Development: Success Rates for Investigational Drugs JA
DiMasi, L Feldman, A Seckler and A Wilson
• TASE immediate announcements
• CapitalIQ
• Bloomberg