ensuring electricity in java-bali rev

E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E

Bandung, November 10th, 2009

Ensuring Electricity in Java-Bali

Presented by PT PLN (Persero) for Business Forum West Java International Expo 2009


AGENDA

1 Present Condition

Electricity Demand Projection 2009-20193

Generation Capacity Addition 2009-20195

2

Java-Bali Electricity System – October 20092

Java-Bali Capacity Balance 2009-20194

Transmission and Distribution Development 2009-20196

Fuel Mix in Java-Bali System7

2nd Fast Track Program8

West Java Grid Development9


NAD74,91%

NAD74,91%

Sumut69,32%Sumut69,32%

Sumbar68.72%Sumbar68.72%

Riau + Kepri54,66%

Riau + Kepri54,66%

Sumsel49,80%Sumsel49,80%

Bengkulu50.08%

Bengkulu50.08%

Babel72,45%Babel

72,45%

Lampung47,66%

Lampung47,66%

Jakarta100%

Jakarta100%

Banten72,11%Banten72,11%

Jabar64,95%Jabar

64,95% Jateng70,60%Jateng70,60%

Jambi48.85%Jambi

48.85%

Jogya79,64%Jogya

79,64%

Jatim71,08%Jatim

71,08%

Bali74,42%

Bali74,42%

NTB31.99%

NTB31.99%

NTT24.24%

NTT24.24%

Kalbar45,65%Kalbar45,65%

Kalteng44,33%Kalteng44,33%

Kalsel71,39%Kalsel

71,39%

Kaltim68,37%Kaltim68,37%

Sulut66,62%Sulut

66,62%

Gorontalo48,70%

Gorontalo48,70%

Sulteng47,64%Sulteng47,64%

Sultra38,21%Sultra

38,21%

Sulsel54,90%Sulsel

54,90%

Malut47,81%Malut

47,81%

Maluku55,36%Maluku55,36%

Papua + Irjabar32,05%

Papua + Irjabar32,05%

Category :Category :

> 60 %

41 - 60 %

20 - 40 %

Present Condition

National Electrification Ratio 2009 : 65%

Source: ESDM3


Java-Bali Electricity System – as of October 2009

Normal : No load curtailment, operation reserve > biggest unit Alert : No load curtailment, operation reserve < biggest unit Deficit : Rotating load curtailment

4

SURALAYA

CILEGON

M.TAWAR

GANDUL

CIBATU

CIBINONG

CIRATA

SAGULING

DEPOK

BEKASICAWANG

TASIKMALAYA

BANDUNGSELATAN

MANDIRANCAN

UNGARAN

T.JATI

PEDAN

KEDIRIPAITON

GRATI

KRIAN

GRESIK

KEMBANGAN

GLNUK

PMRON

BTRTI

KAPAL

NGARA

ANTRI GNYAR

AMPLA

NSDUA

GTENG

STBDO

BWNGI

BDWSO

JMBER

TNGULLMJNG

GNDING

PBLGO

PAKIS

WLNGI

KKTES

KBAGN

BNGIL

BNGIL

SKLNG

KBAGN

BNRAN

GLTMR

BKLAN

SPANG

PMKSN

SMNEP

LNGAN

NGBNG

MKRTO

NGOROKTSNO

SBLTN

TUBAN

BABAT

DWIMA

BJGRO

NGAWI

MNRJO

RBANG

BLORA

CEPU

SRGEN

PWRDI

KDMBO

PATIJPARA

KUDUSTBROKKRPYKWLERI

KLNGU

GRUNG

DIENG

WSOBO

WALIN

PWRJO

WATES

MDARI

KNTUG

WNGIRI

WNSRI

PALUR

JAJAR

MJNGO

KBSENBRBES

KBSEN

RWALO

CLCAP

GBONG

KBMEN

MRICA

MNANGBNJARCAMIS

JTBRG

HRGLS

SRAGI

SKMDIINDMY

SBANGPWKTA

CKPAY

PBRAN

GARUT

DRJAT

CKSKA

RCKEK

KMJNG

CGRLG

UBRNG

PDLRGDAGO

KSBRU

RGDLK

KNGAN

BBKAN

MLBNG

ARJWN

PMPEK

SMDRA

SNTSA

CNJUR

LBSTUPRATU

UBRUG

SALAK

BGBRUBUNAR

RKBTGMENES

TNAGA

BLRJA

P

P

PP

P

TLGNG

TLGNG

TUREN

PBIAN

UBUD

CLGONGU

GU GU

MKRNG PRIOK

GU

GU

MRGEN

MSPTI

PLOSO

PCTAN

NGJUK

SMANMDLAN

SLRJO

deficitdeficit

alertalert

Bottleneck on IBT 500/150 kV

Deficit in Bali subsystem and bottleneck on Java-Bali

150 kV submarine cable

BNTUL

SMANU

NDC PL BL

JAMALIJAMALI

Capacity BalanceCapacity Balance

NDC: Net Dependable CapacityPL: Peak LoadBL: Balance

NDC: Net Dependable CapacityPL: Peak LoadBL: Balance


-

10,000.0

20,000.0

30,000.0

40,000.0

50,000.0

60,000.0

70,000.0

80,000.0

90,000.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

GWh

West Java

Electricity Demand Projection 2009-2019

5

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

GWh

Java-Bali

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Indonesia

Electricity demand projection is calculated per PLN’s region using demand forecast modelling to consider economic growth per customer sector, electrification ratio target and big customer waiting list in a region.

Electrification ratio and economic growth is based on the National Electricity Master Plan (RUKN), which will increase from 65% in 2009 to 91% in 2019. This projection is calculated based on the assumption of economic growth 6.2% per year.

LPEM UI study: For 1% economic growth need an input of electricity growth 1.5 – 2% (elasticity). PLN average elasticity is 1.5.

Electricity demand in Indonesia will increase at 9.2% per year (Java-Bali 8.97% and West Java 8.72%).


Demand Forecast of West Java

======================= ========== ========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== ===========Calendar Year 2008*) 2009**) 2010#) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

======================= ========== ========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== ===========

Total Population (10^3) 46,559.2 47,186.9 47,810.5 48,428.9 49,044.3 49,641.1 50,270.9 50,850.2 51,441.9 52,024.3 52,597.5 53,153.2 - Growth Rate (%) 1.38 1.35 1.32 1.29 1.27 1.22 1.27 1.15 1.16 1.13 1.10 1.06 Growth of Total GDP (%) 5.8 4.5 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 Electrification Ratio (%) 64.4 66.8 69.8 73.1 76.7 80.4 84.3 88.4 92.5 96.8 100.0 100.0

Energy Sales (GWh) 34,051.0 36,533.1 39,101.6 42,571.2 46,542.5 50,880.6 55,619.3 60,795.6 66,182.9 72,043.9 78,420.1 85,356.6 - Growth Rate (%) 5.30 7.29 7.03 8.87 9.33 9.32 9.31 9.31 8.86 8.86 8.85 8.85 -- Residential 10,710.0 11,440.7 12,201.2 13,390.4 14,691.6 16,115.1 17,672.4 19,376.0 21,152.2 23,087.2 25,195.2 27,491.7 -- Commercial 2,632.3 2,790.0 3,018.1 3,279.0 3,618.8 3,993.6 4,406.8 4,862.3 5,337.6 5,858.8 6,430.4 7,057.2 -- Public 929.0 1,031.0 1,118.4 1,218.2 1,327.0 1,445.4 1,574.4 1,715.0 1,860.4 2,018.2 2,189.4 2,375.0 -- Industrial 19,779.6 21,271.4 22,763.9 24,683.6 26,905.2 29,326.6 31,965.8 34,842.3 37,832.7 41,079.7 44,605.0 48,432.7

Power Contracted (MVA) 13,224.2 13,800.1 14,589.0 15,592.8 16,479.3 17,422.9 18,426.8 19,494.2 20,574.0 21,718.2 22,789.7 23,573.1 -- Residential 5,851.8 6,128.8 6,489.2 6,892.0 7,321.0 7,777.6 8,263.6 8,780.7 9,304.6 9,860.3 10,309.0 10,433.4 -- Commercial 1,569.4 1,593.7 1,704.4 1,831.0 1,968.1 2,116.4 2,276.6 2,449.6 2,626.3 2,816.1 3,019.9 3,238.8 -- Public 556.6 583.0 618.1 658.0 700.9 747.2 796.9 850.2 904.6 962.7 1,024.8 1,091.1 -- Industrial 5,246.4 5,494.7 5,777.4 6,211.8 6,489.3 6,781.7 7,089.7 7,413.7 7,738.5 8,079.1 8,435.9 8,809.7

Number of Customer 8,146,194 8,582,395 9,102,295 9,682,419 10,299,568 10,956,109 11,654,559 12,397,597 13,150,262 13,948,675 14,607,607 14,837,408 -- Residential 7,684,353 8,095,724 8,581,619 9,123,316 9,699,208 10,311,451 10,962,341 11,654,317 12,354,999 13,097,808 13,697,263 13,863,447 -- Commercial 242,218 255,188 274,099 295,578 318,721 343,654 370,514 399,447 428,943 460,586 494,531 530,941 -- Public 208,626 219,797 234,359 250,721 268,224 286,946 306,974 328,397 350,179 373,404 398,166 424,568 -- Industrial 10,997 11,686 12,219 12,803 13,416 14,058 14,731 15,436 16,140 16,877 17,647 18,453

Total Production (GWh) 37,077.7 39,996.8 42,696.2 46,368.0 50,569.9 55,265.4 60,392.9 65,991.9 71,816.4 78,150.9 85,049.1 92,572.1 Energy Requirement (GWh) 37,004.9 39,924.0 42,618.5 46,283.5 50,477.8 55,164.8 60,282.9 65,871.7 71,685.6 78,008.5 84,894.2 92,403.4 Station Use (%) - - - - - - - - - - - - T & D Losses (%) +) 7.98 8.49 8.25 8.02 7.80 7.77 7.74 7.71 7.68 7.65 7.63 7.63 PS GI&Dis (%) 1) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Load Factor (%) 83.58 83.61 80.33 80.25 80.21 80.18 80.15 80.12 80.09 80.07 80.04 80.02 Peak Load (MW) 5,064 5,461 6,068 6,596 7,197 7,868 8,602 9,403 10,236 11,143 12,130 13,207

======================= ========== ========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== ===========

Annual growth rate of sales = 8.85% (Energy sales in 2009 is about 36.5 TWh and 85.4 TWh in year of 2019)Electrification ratio = 100% in year of 2018Additional customer = 650.000 customer/yearAdditional peak load = 700 MW/year


Java-Bali Capacity Balance 2009-2019

7

No. Supply and Demand 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20191 Demand

Energy Sales GWh 106,956 115,099 125,199 136,807 149,618 163,688 179,053 195,314 213,020 232,167 252,547 Growth % 5.7 7.6 8.8 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.1 9.0 8.8 Production GWh 123,066 132,867 145,113 158,410 173,097 189,215 206,801 225,396 245,150 267,184 290,639 Load Factor % 79.5 77.5 76.5 75.5 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 Peak Load MW 17,671 19,571 21,654 23,951 26,347 28,800 31,477 34,307 37,314 40,667 44,237

2 Supply MWInstalled Capacity 21,936 21,503 21,425 21,425 21,425 21,425 21,425 21,425 21,425 21,425 21,425

PLN 18,071 17,638 17,560 17,560 17,560 17,560 17,560 17,560 17,560 17,560 17,560 IPP 3,865 3,865 3,865 3,865 3,865 3,865 3,865 3,865 3,865 3,865 3,865 Retired -300 -433 -78 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 Capacity Addition3.1

Ongoing Project MW 1,445 4,084 2,036 243 1,360 - - - - - - Plan

Upper Cisokan PS PS - - - - - 500 500 - - - - Muara Tawar Add-On 2,3,4 CCPP - - 150 - 1,050 - - - - - - Bojanegara (LNG Terminal) CCPP - - - - - - - - 750 1,500 - New CCPP CCPP - - - - - - - - - 750 - New GTPP GTPP - - - - - - 600 600 600 600 600 New SCPP (Indramayu) SCPP - - - - - 1,000 1,000 - - - 4,000 GeoPP FTP2 - PLN GeoPP - - - - 60 220 260 110 110 - - Kesamben HEPP - - - - - - - - 37 - - Kalikonto-2 HEPP - - - - - - - 62 - - - Matenggeng PS PS - - - - - - - - 443 443 - Grindulu PS PS - - - - - - - - - 500 500

3.2Ongoing Project MW 110 150 660 2,250 250 - - - - - - Plan

Banten SCPP - - - - - - 660 - - - - Madura (2x300 MW) SCPP - - - - - 600 - - - East Bali SCPP - - - - 200 - - - - - - Sumatera Mine Mouth SCPP - - - - - - - 1,800 1,200 - - Central Java SCPP (Infrastructure) SCPP - - - - - 1,000 1,000 - - - - GeoPP FTP2 - IPP GeoPP - - - 175 310 445 55 235 330 545 370 Rajamandala HEPP - - - - - - - 30 - - - Jatigede HEPP - - - - - - - - 110 - - Cikotok HEPP - 4 - - - - - - - - - Girimukti, Cianjur HEPP - 8 - - - - - - - - -

4 Total Supply 23,551 27,364 30,133 32,801 36,031 39,196 43,271 46,708 50,287 54,625 60,095 5 Reserve Margin % 33 40 39 37 37 36 37 36 35 34 36 6 Potential Project

West Java SCPP (Ex. Tj Jati A) SCPP - - - - - - 660 - - - -

PLN

IPP


1,699

4,241

3,152

1,470

3,748

2,391 2,789

1,600 2,438

4,650

6,093

117

475

1,261

2,983

2,430

2,680 2,568

3,441 2,465

1,116

907

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

IPP

PLN

Generation Capacity Addition in Java-Bali System [2009-2019]

Capacity addition in Java-Bali up to 2019 = 38,600 MW or 3.500 MW per year.

PLN = 26.100 MW, and IPP = 12.500 MW Ongoing Project = 12.600 MW (PLN = 9.200 MW, IPP =

3.400 MW]

Source: Draft RUPTL 2010-2019

MW

8


2nd Fast Track Program

9

Region Hydro Electric

Combine Cycle

Geothermal Steam Turbine

Total

Java 1,000 1,200 1,525 2,000 5,725

Outside Java 174 426 2,058 2,294 4,952

Total 1,174 1,626 3,583 4,294 10,677

Portion 11% 15% 34% 40% 100%

Type of Power Plant

PLN + IPP PLN IPP

Capacity(MW)

Capacity(MW)

Investment(Mil. USD)

Capacity(MW)

Investment(Mil. USD)

Steam turbine 4,294 3,064 4,039 1,230 2,031

Combine cycle 1,626 1,200 1,020 426 362

Geothermal 3,583 977 1,537 2,606 6,057

Hydro electric 1,174 1,174 1,010

Total 10,677 6,415 7,605 4,262 8,450

MW


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Jaringan TM Jaringan TR Trafo Distribusi-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

500/150 kV 150/70 kV 150/20 kV 70/20 kV

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

500 kV AC 500 kV DC 150 kV 70 kV

Source: Draft RUPTL 2010-2019 10

Transmissions (kms)

kms MVA

Substations (MVA)

Distribution

Transmission and Distribution Development in Java-Bali System 2009-2019

T/L development = 6.600 km

Substation = 77.000 MVA

Distribution

Medium Voltage = 98.000 km

Low voltage = 174.000 km

Dist. Transformer = 21.000 MVA

New Customers =17.000.000

T/L development = 6.600 km

Substation = 77.000 MVA

Distribution

Medium Voltage = 98.000 km

Low voltage = 174.000 km

Dist. Transformer = 21.000 MVA

New Customers =17.000.000


HSD (Oil)2%

MFO (Oil)0%Gas

18%

LNG5%

Coal58%

Hydro2%

Pumped Storage

2%

Geothermal13%

2019

HSD (Oil)7%

MFO (Oil)6%Gas

23%

Coal51%

Hydro6%

Geothermal7%

2009

Fuel Mix in Java-Bali System

Source: Draft RUPTL 2010-2019

Energy Production: 123.1 TWh Energy Production: 290.6 TWh

11


12

West Java Sub-system – Coverage Area

Bandung Raya : Bandung City Cirata : Purwakarta, Subang, Indramayu,

Padalarang Tasikmalaya : Tasikmalaya, Garut, Banjar, Ciamis Cirebon : Cirebon, Jatibarang Cibatu : Bekasi Industrial Area, Tambun Cikarang

and Karawang Bogor : Kota Bogor, Puncak Area, Sukabumi,

Cianjur


West Java Grid

13

f

iI

Ii

I

MLBNG

PRKAN

SMDNG

CKSKA

GARUT

KMJNG

DRJAT

KNGAN

PLMAN

SMDRA

PMPEK

ARJWN

CKRNG

SRAGI

BBKAN BRBES

MDCAN

PWKTA

JTLHR

DWUAN

RGDLK

HRGLS

INDMY

BKASI

CIBNG

TSMYACAMIS

UBRNG

MJLYA

BDSLN

STOSA

CKLNG

SGLNG

CRATA

PDLRG

PEDAN

BNJAR

JTBRG

PGDRN

MNANG

CGRLG

KDPTN

SKMDI

DAGO

CKPAY

WYNDU

RCKBA

CNJUR A

A

SBANG

MKSRI

PRURI

PYNYG

PRMYA

MLIGI

PLTU KANCI

DGPKR

LGDAR

KSBLM

TLJBE

ARCKEK

MTWAR

CBATU

DEPOK

INDRM

KRTMR

TSMYA-7

CKJNG

LMJAN

GU

BOGOR

KRCDG

INBRN

SOUTH

CBRUM

CBBAT

BDTMR

PASIA

CGNEA

CURUG

KRPYG

PNDLI

TGHRG

PNDLI

A

PBRAN

BKASI

PDKLP

JBEKA

GDMKR

CKLDO

TMBUN

FAJAR

PNCOL TYGRIKe Jtrgn

DRJAS

P

P

PTUHA P

KSBRU

PLTU JAB-UT

P

SKTNIBKUTR

P

CKDNG

A GHEJO

P

P

A

UJBRG

CibatuCibatu

TasikmalayaTasikmalaya

Bandung Raya

Bandung Raya

CirebonCirebon

CirataCirata


Strengthening of West Java Grid [1/2]

14

Bandung Raya Sub System to supply Bandung CityBandung Selatan Substation , 500 kV, 2x500 MVA (existing)Kamojang Geothermal = 200 MW, Darajat Geothermal = 275 MW Wayang Windu Geothetmal = 220 MWUjung Berung Substation 500 kV, 2x 500 MVA (2012)

Cirata Sub System to supply: Purwakarta, Subang, Indramayu, PadalarangCirata Substation, 500 kV, 2x500 MVAIndramayu Steam Coal Power Plant 3 x 300 MW (2010)

Tasikmalaya Sub System to supply: Tasikmalaya, Garut, Banjar, CiamisGITET Tasikmalaya 1x500 MVA


Strengthening of West Java Grid [2/2]

15

Cirebon Sub System to supply : Cirebon, Jatibarang GITET Mandirancan 1x500 MVAIBT-2 Mandirancan 1x500 MVA (2010)PLTU IPP Cirebon 1x660 MW (2011)

Cibatu Sub System to supply : Bekasi Industrial Area , Tambun, Cikarang and KarawangGITET Cibatu 3x500 MVAIBT-4 Cibatu 1x500 MVA (2011)PLTGU IPP Cikarang Listrindo

Bogor Sub System to supply Kota Bogor, Puncak Area, Sukabumi, CianjurPLTP Gunung Salak 300 MWPLTU Pelabuhan Ratu 2x300 MW (2011)


West Java Grid

16

P

P

P

P

P

P

250 MW

0 MW

75 MW 47 MW63 MW20 MW

275 MW

163 MW

58 MW

220 MW

450 MW

136 MW

369 MW 190

MW 200 MW

280 MW

Sub Sistem Bandung Raya

MW

MW MW

UJBRG

KRCDG

BDSLN

WYNDU

TSBRU

MW

CAMIS BNJARGARUT

HRGLSSKMDI

JTBAR

CRATA

BDUTR

CNJUR

TSBRU-7

TSMYA

CGRLG1

CRATA-7

MTWAR-7

CBATU-7

BKASI-7

P

LGDARPTUHA

PKANCI

SGLNG-7 BDSLN-7

Sub Sistem Cirebon

Sub Sistem Tasik-Garut-BnjarP

P

DRJAT

PBRAN

PJABUT

Sub Sistem Bogor-Skbmi

P

JABSEL

CBATU

MDRCN-7

PDLRG

BKASI

MDRCN

SRAGI

KMJNG

RCKEK

CKSKA

ARJWN

PWKTA

JTLHR CKMPY

KSBRU

DWUAN

Sub Cirata Pwkta

Sub Sistem Cikrng-Cbatu

SKTNI

GHEJO

UJBRG7UJBRG5


17

Thank You…Thank You…Thank You…Thank You…

ensuring electricity in java-bali rev

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