ensing and predicting the pulse of the city through … · human computer interaction laboratory...
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Human Computer Interaction Laboratory
@jonfroehlich Assistant Professor Computer Science
SENSING AND PREDICTING THE PULSE OF THE CITY THROUGH SHARED BICYCLING International Workshop on Spatio-temporal Data Mining for a Better Understanding of Human Mobility:
The Bicycle Sharing System Case Study
December 5th, Paris, France
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A quick story re: traveling to this workshop.
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I never take Vélib’. The redistribution is completely broken.
— Girl On Train
Parisian Exchange Student from England
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bikeshare research stakeholders & benefits
Operators: benefit from more accurate
models of demand for load balancing
End-users: benefit from understanding and
forecasting how system will be used for trip
planning
Urban planners: can use bike models to
improve the bikeability of the city
Social scientists & human geographers:
can study and better understand human
mobility and routine
1
2
3
4
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The social sciences can finally
have access to masses of data
that are of the same order of
magnitude of their older
sisters, the natural sciences
Bruno Latour, 2007
French philosopher and sociologist
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data
my research
this talk
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bikeshare data
Station Capacity Data
granularity
Data collection method
(1) Data dump from operator
(2) Scrape bikeshare website
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bikeshare data
Station Capacity Data
granularity
Data collection method
(1) Data dump from operator
(2) Scrape bikeshare website
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bikeshare data
Station Capacity Data
granularity
Data collection method
(1) Data dump from operator
(2) Scrape bikeshare website
(3) 3rd-party DIY APIs
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bikeshare data
Station Capacity Data O/D Bike Data
granularity
Data collection method
(1) Data dump from operator
(2) Scrape bikeshare website
(3) 3rd-party DIY APIs
Data collection method
(1) Data dump from operator
(2) …
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Some interesting stats
found with that data
about CabiBikeShare
Some Quick Fun Facts
(1) “Average” trip is downhill (by -1.94 meters)
(2) Last mile usage: four most common trips are short
and seem to cover areas that subway/bus do not
(3) Sixth most common trip is a return trip from
Smithsonian station back to the Smithsonian station
(4) Casual vs. members usage fees: 40.7% casual riders
incur fees vs. 3.3% of members incur fees
Source: http://greatergreaterwashington.org/post/13351/capital-bikeshare-data-already-yields-interesting-facts/
Analysis Enabled by Anonymized O/D Bike Data
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[MV Jantzen, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h0rV7tw1Eo]
Washington DC, Capital Bikeshare (CaBi) Flows
MV Jantzen, CaBi Trips, http://youtu.be/-h0rV7tw1Eo
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Using heuristics to infer bike flow.
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Martin Austwick & Oliver O’Brien, CASA-UCL, Boris Bikes Redux, https://vimeo.com/19982736
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The routing is done using OpenStreetMap data & Routing routing scripts optimized for bike usage (i.e., constant speed on all road types, obeying one-way roads and taking advantage of marked cycleway). I’ve tweaked the desirability of road types, so that the trunk and primary roads are only slightly less desirable than quieter routes.
— Oliver O’Brien
UCL CASL http://oliverobrien.co.uk/2011/02/boris-bikes-flow-video-now-with-better-curves
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Jo Wood, Experiments in Bicycle Flow Animation, https://vimeo.com/33712288
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Fernanda Viegas & Martin Wattenberg, Wind Map, http://hint.fm/wind/
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bikeshare data
Station Capacity Data O/D Bike Data O/D User Data
granularity
Data collection method
(1) Data dump from operator
(2) Scrape bikeshare website
(3) 3rd-party DIY APIs
Data collection method
(1) Data dump from operator
(2) …
Data collection method
(1) Data dump from operator
(2) Scrape user account logs
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“Working collaboratively with Transport for
London (TfL), customer records reporting a
unique customer identifier, gender and
postcode, have been made available. So too
has a complete set of user journeys [for those
customer ids]”
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Human route repetition in car driving.
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Route Prediction from Trip Observations
Description Average Median
trip distance (miles) 7.7 4.2
trip time (min) 16.3 11.5
num trips / day 4 3.9
num trips / subject 60.3 50
num days of data /
subject 15.1 13
14,468 trips / 240 subjects
Greater Seattle Area High Level Trip Stats
[Froehlich & Krumm, Route Prediction From Trip Observations, SAE 2008]
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
% o
f Tri
ps
that
are
Rep
eat
Tri
ps
Day of Observation
Percentage of Trips that are Repeat Trips
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
% o
f Tri
ps
that
are
Rep
eat
Tri
ps
Day of Observation
After approximately 1
month of observation,
the number of repeat
trips reaches 50%
Percentage of Trips that are Repeat Trips
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151
Perc
en
tag
e o
f Tri
ps
Route (Ordered By Most Frequently Traveled)
No Repeat Trips
Avg Cumulative Distribution of Trips in Routes
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151
Perc
en
tag
e o
f Tri
ps
Route (Ordered By Most Frequently Traveled)
Average
No Repeat Trips
The most frequently traveled route accounts
for 12% of a driver’s trips
The top ten most frequently traveled routes account for
50% of a driver’s trips
Avg Cumulative Distribution of Trips in Routes
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bikeshare data
Station Capacity Data O/D Bike Data O/D User Data
Event Based Station I/O with cloud
when bike docked/hired
Continuous Use sensors to track
movement
Instrumented Bicycles (e.g., GPS sensor)
Instrumented Users (e.g., mobile phones)
Instrumented Cities (e.g., CCTVs)
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bikeshare data
Station Capacity Data O/D Bike Data O/D User Data
Event Based Station I/O with cloud
when bike docked/hired
Continuous Use sensors to track
movement
Instrumented Bicycles (e.g., GPS sensor)
Instrumented Users (e.g., mobile phones)
Instrumented Cities (e.g., CCTVs)
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sensing and
predicting the
movement of a
city via shared
bicycling [Froehlich et al., UrbanSense2008; IJCAI2009]
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Summer 2008:
- 373 stations
- 6,000 bicycles
- 150,000 subscribers
bicing barcelona, spain
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Data Collection
• Scrape bicing webpage every 2 mins
• Extract:
– station’s geo-location
– # of available bicycles
– # of vacant parking slots
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fri sat sun mon tues wed thurs fri
0
10
20
random zero value
erroneous oscillations
after cleansing
station 15: num available bicycles
0
10
20
fri sat sun mon tues wed thurs fri
station 15: num available bicycles
# o
f av
ail b
icyc
les
# o
f av
ail b
icyc
les
time
before cleansing
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How do we know what to clean?
6 hours
random zero value
and here as well
# o
f av
ail b
icyc
les
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dataset
raw
dataset
cleaned
dataset
stations 390 370
days 25K 22.7K
observations 26.1M 20.2M
parking slots 9831 9315
13 weeks of observations
Aug 27 – Dec 1, 2008
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Num checked-out bicycles across all stations
morning
commute
late spanish
lunch
evening
commute
evening
commute
sleeping in on
weekends
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Two-spike pattern
found in study of London
Underground
[Lathia, Froehlich & Capra, ICDM2010]
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Introducing DayViews
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Mon Tues Wed Thur Fri
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morning
commute
starts @
7am
lunch
rush
begins @
1pm
return from
lunch/work
at 3:30pm
10am beach goers begin
arriving
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morning
commute
starts @
7am
lunch
rush
begins @
1pm
return from
lunch/work
at 3:30pm
Activity Score: AS(t)=|Bt -Bt-1|
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How are Bicing patterns shared across
stations and distributed in the city?
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Temporal Clustering
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
acti
vity
sco
re
time of day (hrs)
Activity0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
pe
rce
nta
ge f
ull
time of day (hrs)
Weekday
activity clusters available bicycle clusters
Applied dendrogram clustering with
dynamic time warping as distance metric
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Cluster A2 (N=76) Cluster A3 (N=74) Cluster A4 (N=12)
Cluster A1 (N=207)
Activity Clusters
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Cluster A2 (N=76) Cluster A3 (N=74) Cluster A4 (N=12) Cluster A5 (N=1)
Cluster A1 (N=207)
Activity Clusters
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Temporal Clustering
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0.04
0.05
0.06
acti
vity
sco
re
time of day (hrs)
Activity0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
pe
rce
nta
ge f
ull
time of day (hrs)
Weekday
activity clusters available bicycle clusters
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Cluster B2 (N=72) Cluster B1 (N=106)
flat
Cluster B4 (N=62) Cluster B3 (N=42)
outgoing
Cluster B6 (N=38) Cluster B5 (N=50)
incoming
Available Bicycle Cluster
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flat outgoing incoming
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Can Bicing station usage be predicted?
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Why Care?
• load balancing
• assist urban planners / city
officials about expected activity
• provide new web/mobile
services to bicing users
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Uphill Station
(midday)
Downtown Station
(night)
76% of respondents had difficulty finding a bicycle
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Downtown Station
(morning)
66% of respondents had difficulty finding a parking slot
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Beach Station
(evening)
50% of respondents avoid Bicing when they are
traveling to a place where they must be on time
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Station Models
0
30
time
t0 Bt0 =27
PW=10min # o
f av
aila
ble
bic
ycle
s
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0
30
time
t0 Bt0 =27
PW=10min
PW=2hr
PredLV=27 PredLV=27
Actual Value=10
Actual Value=27
PredLV=(t0,Bt0,PW)=Bt0 #
of
avai
lab
le b
icyc
les
Last Value
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0
30
time
t0 Bt0 =27
PW=2hr
PredLV=27
Actual Value=10
PredLV=(t0,Bt0,PW)=Bt0 #
of
avai
lab
le b
icyc
les
Last Value
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Station’s
DayView
PredHM=(t0,Bt0,PW)=BTBt0 + PW
Historic Mean
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0
30
time
t0 Bt0 =27
PW=10min
PW=2hr
PredHM=23
PredHM=14
Actual Value=10
Actual Value=27
Station’s
DayView
# o
f av
aila
ble
bic
ycle
s PredHM=(t0,Bt0,PW)=BTBt0 + PW
Historic Mean
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0
30
time
t0 Bt0 =27
PW=2hr
PredHM=14
Actual Value=10
Station’s
DayView
# o
f av
aila
ble
bic
ycle
s PredHM=(t0,Bt0,PW)=BTBt0 + PW
Historic Mean
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0
30
time
t0 Bt0 =27
PW=10min
PW=2hr
PredHT=27+(25-24)=28
PredHT=27+(15-24)=18
Actual Value=10
Actual Value=27
Station’s
DayView
PredHT=(t0,Bt0,PW)=Bt0+BTBt0 + PW-BTBt0
# o
f av
aila
ble
bic
ycle
s
Historic Trend
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0
30
time
t0 Bt0 =27
PW=2hr
PredHT=27+(15-24)=18
Actual Value=10
Station’s
DayView
PredHT=(t0,Bt0,PW)=Bt0+BTBt0 + PW-BTBt0
# o
f av
aila
ble
bic
ycle
s
Historic Trend
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PredBN=(t0,Bt0,PW)=Bt0+ delta
• time: discrete observed node
corresponding to hours in the day
• bikes: the # of avail bikes at time t
• PW: the prediction window
• delta: continuous Gaussian var that
represents change in number of
bikes at time t + PW
PW time
bikes
delta
Prediction made by adding the value of the delta
node to the most recent observation
Bayesian Network
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Prediction Evaluation november
3 weeks of data to build models
1 week of test data
models were fed: • the current time • current # of avail bicycles • each of the six pw values (10,20,30,60,90,120 mins)
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Prediction Error Metric
• Absolute difference between the
predicted number of bicycles &
the ground truth observation at
time t0 + PW
• Error is in number of bicycles
– normalized by the station’s size
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High Level Results
Model
Avg
Error
Stdev of
Error
Random 0.37 0.27
HistoricMean 0.17 0.16
LastValue 0.09 0.14
HistoricTrend 0.09 0.13
Bayesian Network 0.08 0.12
*error is in normalized available bicycles (nab)
0.37 corresponds to roughly 9 bicycles
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High Level Results
Model
Avg
Error
Stdev of
Error
Random 0.37 0.27
HistoricMean 0.17 0.16
LastValue 0.09 0.14
HistoricTrend 0.09 0.13
Bayesian Network 0.08 0.12
*error is in normalized available bicycles (nab)
0.08 corresponds to roughly 2 bicycles
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Prediction vs. Activity Cluster
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
A5 A4 A3 A2 A1
pre
dic
tio
n e
rro
r (n
ab)
LastValue HistMean
HistTrend Bayesian
A5 (N=1) A4 (N=12) A3 (N=74) A2 (N=76) A1 (N=207)
acti
vity
sco
res
0.1 corresponds to ~2.5 bicycles at a station with 25 slots
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0 30 60 90 120
avg
% o
f av
aila
ble
bic
ycle
s
Elevation (meters)
station elevation vs. avg % of available bicycles
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0 30 60 90 120
acti
vity
sco
re
Elevation (meters)
station elevation vs. activity score
Topographical Influences?
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weather
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other mass transit other transit sources
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cross city examination
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self-sustainable system
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promote usage
at current pace: expected arrival: 11 mins
current: 4 empty slots predicted: 6 (11 mins)
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Longitudinal
Study
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Related Collaborators
Related Publications
NealLathia NuriaOliver JoachimNeumann JohnKrumm LiciaCapra ChrisSmith
Individuals Among Commuters: Building Personalised Transport Information Services From Fare Collection Systems
Neal Lathia, Chris Smith, Jon Froehlich, Licia Capra, Journal of Pervasive and Mobile Computing (PMC) 2012
Mining Public Transport Usage for Personalised Intelligent Transport Systems
Neal Lathia, Jon Froehlich, Licia Capra, Proceedings of ICDM2010
Sensing and Predicting the Pulse of the City Through Shared Bicycling
Jon Froehlich, Joachim Neumann, Nuria Oliver, Proceedings of IJCAI2009
Measuring the Pulse of the City Through Shared Bicycle Programs
Jon Froehlich, Joachim Neumann, Nuria Oliver, Proceedings of UrbanSense2008
Route Prediction From Trip Observations
Jon Froehlich, John Krumm, Proceedings of SAE2008
Download publications here: http://www.cs.umd.edu/~jonf/publications.html
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Human Computer Interaction Laboratory
@jonfroehlich Assistant Professor Computer Science
SENSING AND PREDICTING THE PULSE OF THE CITY THROUGH SHARED BICYCLING International Workshop on Spatio-temporal Data Mining for a Better Understanding of Human Mobility:
The Bicycle Sharing System Case Study
Co-organized by GERI Animatic, le Labex Futurs Urbains et l'Ecole des Ponts ParisTech
December 5th, Paris, France