ensembles

An Integrated Project under the 6th Framework Programme of the EU

Project overview and updatefor RT4/RT5 meeting, ENS, 10-11 February 2005

Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, [email protected]

ENSEMBLES

© Crown copyright 2004

Outline

Overview of the ENSEMBLES project (10RTs)

Achievements to date

Current, planned activities and latest developments


The ENSEMBLES Project

A five year project, up to €15 million funding from EC

Currently about 66 partners from across EU, Switzerland, Australia, US

Ten Research Themes (~300 page DoW)

Project is being managed by a Management Board under the terms of a Consortium Agreement

Follows on from/builds upon FP5 projects (e.g. DEMETER, PREDICATE, STARDEX)


Strategic Objectives

Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the principal state-of-the-art high resolution, global and regional Earth System models, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales

Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System

Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management


Overview of Research Themes

RT1 James Murphy, Tim Palmer To build and test an ensemble prediction system based on

global Earth System Models for use in the generation of multi-model simulations of future climate in RT2A.

RT2A Jean-Francois Royer, Guy Brasseur To produce sets of climate simulations and provide the

multi-model results needed in other RTs: validation RT5, understanding processes RT4, as well as providing boundary conditions and forcing fields for regional model simulations RT2B.


Overview of Research Themes

RT3 Jens Christensen, Markku Rummukainen To provide improved climate model tools developed in the

context of regional models, first at 50 km, later at 20 km resolution for specified sub-regions, including provision of a multi-model based ensemble system for regional climate prediction for use in RT2B.

RT2B Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob To provide ensemble based regional climate scenarios and

seasonal to decadal hindcasts for use in other RTs: understanding processes RT4, validation RT5, and impacts studies RT6.


Overview of Research Themes (continued)

RT4 Julia Slingo, Herve le Treut To advance the understanding of the basic science at the

heart of the ENSEMBLES project, exploiting integrations performed in RT2A, linking with RT5 on the evaluation of the ensemble prediction system and feeding back results to RT1.

RT5 Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank To perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation

of the performance of the ensemble prediction system, including the production of high resolution observational dataset, and using integrations from RT1, RT2A, RT2B and RT3.


Overview of Research Themes (continued)

RT6 Andy Morse, Colin Prentice To carry out climate impact assessments, including linking

impact models to ENSEMBLES probabalistic scenarios produced in RT2A and RT2B, in order to develop risk based estimates of impacts.

RT7 Richard Tol, Roberto Roson To provide scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, land-use

changes and adaptive capacity with and without greenhouse gas reduction policies, and test the sensitivity of these scenarios to climate change.

RT8 Martin Beniston, Christos Giannakopolous Represents the interface between the ENSEMBLES scientific

consortium and a wider audience that includes scientists, stakeholders, policymakers and the general public.


Research Themes


RT0 Management


RT0 Management

Provide overall co-ordination and top-level management for the project.

Organise General Assemblies to discuss progress and plans

ENSEMBLES Management Board meet as often as required

End of project conference and brochure to showcase the project’s outcomes

Coordinate reporting, and comms. between EC and project

Project Office can be contacted on [email protected] or look at http://www.ensembles-eu.org


Achievements to date (Feb 05)

Project started 1 Sep 04 (the date you can charge costs from)

Kick-off meeting (13 absent partners) and 1st EMB meeting

Contract signed and pre-financing distributed

Project web site http://www.ensembles-eu.org available

along with web sites for RT1, RT2A, RT6, RT8 (RT2B,3 soon)

Project-wide and RT mailing lists developed.

Eos overview article published 1st Newsletter released, 1st ENSEMBLES Workshop arranged.

Please provide RT8 with requested information so they can disseminate project information and results.

Links with other projects (e.g. DYNAMITE, 3rd&4th call), and requests for participation from additional organisations


Current and planned activities

1. 6 month reportingFOR COMPLETION BY RESEARCH THEME CO-ORDINATORS

6-month progress report

Period: 1 September 2004 to 28 February 2005

RT9, prepared by Chris Hewitt (METO-HC) on 1 March 2005

Status of milestones and deliverables due in this period: Number Date due Description Status D9.1 Month 1 Hold first RT meeting Completed on time. D9.2 Month 2 Design system Completed 1 month late. M9.1 Month 6 Prototype system installed Not completed on time.

Expected to be 2 months late because of [some reason].

Forecast status of milestones and deliverables due in next 6 months: Number Date due Description Forecast Status D9.3 Month 12 Improve system after user trials Expected to be completed on

time. D9.4 Month 12 Final system installed Expected to be delivered 2

months late because of delays with milestone M9.1 .

Summary of achievements this period: [a few sentences/bullet points]

Summary of anticipated future problems and solutions (if any):

Any issues to be raised with, or advertised to, other RTs: [for example] we need such and such from RTy by Jun05. We will be able to provide such and such to RTz by Aug05.


FOR COMPLETION BY WORK PACKAGE LEADERS



WP9.0, prepared by Chris Hewitt (METO-HC) on 1 March 2005

Status of milestones and deliverables due in this period: Number Date due Description Status D9.1 Month 1 Hold first RT meeting Completed on time.

Forecast status of milestones and deliverables due in next 6 months: Number Date due Description Forecast Status D9.3 Month 12 Improve system after user trials Expected to be completed on

time.

Summary of achievements this period:


Any issues to be raised with, or advertised to, other WPs/RTs: e.g. we need such and such from WPx by Jun05. We will be able to provide such and such to WPy Feb05.

For WP leaders

FOR COMPLETION BY PARTNERS FOR EACH RELEVANT WORK PACKAGE



Prepared by: Chris Hewitt on: 1 March 2005

For partner: METO-HC

In WP: 0.0 Partner’s key personnel in this WP Name Email address,

Telephone/Fax Address

Chris Hewitt [email protected] +44-1392-884520 / 885681

Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB. UK

A N Other [email protected] +44-1392-884521 / 885681

As above

Partner’s resources used in this period Funded Unfunded Person months effort 1 1 Approximate total costs €3000 €3000

Summary of achievements this period:


Any issues to be raised with, or advertised to, other WPs/RTs: e.g., we need such and such from WPx by Jun05. We will be able to provide such and such to WPy Feb05.

For partners


Current and planned activities

1. 6 month reporting (1Sep04 – 28Feb05). RT coordinators will advise

2. End of year reporting – strongly recommend all partners do a practise run, particularly for cost statements (but don’t do the audit certificate)

3. EMB to discuss a timetable for end of year reports

4. Gender committee – volunteers contact me or Clare Goodess


Current meeting timetable

EMB meeting, 23 March, Copenhagen

Informal meetings at EGU? 24-29 April, Vienna

Cross-cutting Worksop, 9-11 May, Evora

RT6 meeting, June (TBC)

Joint RT1/RT2A meeting, 13-15 June, Toulouse

General Assembly, 5-9 September, Athens

Joint AVEC summer school, 18-30 September, France


Discussion items

General Assembly schedule:

• Day 0 Monday Optional RT/WP meetings

• Day 1 Tuesday RT meetings

• Day 2-3Wed-Thu General Assembly

• Day 4 Fri. a.m. Management Board

Interaction with other RTs

Web sites


Example of an RT web site


Questions & Answers

ensembles

Documents