ensemble data assimilation for watershed water quality ... · 9/12/2014 cahmda-hepex/dafoh...
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DA for watershed water quality forecasting
Ensemble Data Assimilation
for Watershed Water Quality
Forecasting
Sunghee Kim1,Hamideh Riazi1, D.-J. Seo1,
Changmin Shin2 ,Kyunghyun Kim2
1Dept. Of Civil Eng., The Univ. of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA2Water Quality Control Center, National Institute of Environmental
Research, Incheon, Korea
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DA for watershed water quality forecasting
In this presentation
• Water quality forecasting
– Needs, challenges for DA
• Maximum likelihood ensemble filter for
Hydrologic Simulation Program – Fortran
(MLEF-HSPF)
• Hindcasting experiment
• Operational implementation
• Conclusions and research questions
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DA for watershed water quality forecasting
Why watershed water quality
forecasting?
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DA for watershed water quality forecasting
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base on Scenario #3
DA for watershed water quality forecasting
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DA for watershed water quality forecasting
Operational WQ forecasting in
NIER, Korea
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DA for watershed water quality forecasting
Operational WQ forecasting in
NIER, Korea
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MLEF-
HSPF
DA for watershed water quality forecasting
DA for HSPF – Challenges
• High dimensionality
– A large number of control variables (28 state
variables, 31 model segments → 331 control
variables)
• Sparse observations
– In-river variables only
– Weekly only
• Nonlinear bio-physiochemical processes
• Nonlinear observations
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DA for watershed water quality forecasting
MLEF-HSPF
• Based on MLEF (Zupanski, 2005)
– Model error added via state augmentation
• Formulated as a fixed-lag smoother
• Bias correction added in the observation equations to
remove/reduce systematic biases
– Conditional bias-penalized linear regression (Seo 2012)
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DA for watershed water quality forecasting
Hindcasting experiment
• 2 catchments in the Nakdong River Basin, Korea, for
2008-2009
– Kumho, Banbyeon
• Assimilate weekly observations at the outlet and up to 4
interior monitoring stations
– Flow, TW, NH4, NO3, PO4, CHL-a, TN, TP, TOC, BOD,
DO
• Ensemble size of 9 based on sensitivity and eigenvalue
spectrum analysis (see poster by Riazi et al.)
• No. of control variables: 333 for Kumho, 316 for Banbyeon
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DA for watershed water quality forecasting
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(2,000 km2)
Nakdong River Basin (23,817 km2)
Meteorological stations
(2,000 km2)
DA for watershed water quality forecasting
Kumho, CHL-a, outlet only
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RM
SE
(ug/l)
Analysis Day-1 Day-2 Day-3
Base
BC-Base
BC-DA
HSPF simulation without
Bias correction or DA
HSPF simulation with
bias correction
HSPF simulation with
bias correction and DA
15% 15% 18%
DA for watershed water quality forecasting
Banbyeon, DO, outlet only
Dec 12, 2013 AGU 2013 Fall Meeting 13
Analysis Day-1 Day-2 Day-3
RM
SE (
mg
/l)
Base
BC-Base
BC-DA
DA for watershed water quality forecasting
MSE skill score - Kumho
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-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
BOD CHL-a DO NO3 PO4 TW FLOW
Skill
Sco
re
Analysis DAY-1 DAY-2 DAY-3
DA for watershed water quality forecasting
Kumho
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Reach
No.
Sampling
frequency
(sample
size)
Missing
observations
109 Weekly (96) Flow
118 Weekly (96) NO3, PO4
CHL-a in 2008
121 Weekly (96) NO3, PO4
124 Weekly (96) Flow
126 Weekly (96) Flow
127 Weekly (96) NO3, PO4
CHL-a in 2008
135 Weekly (96) ------
Reach 135: outlet
DA for watershed water quality forecasting
CHL-a at Reach 121
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Obs from 1station (121)
assimilated
RM
SE
(ug/l)
Analysis Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Analysis Day-1 Day-2 Day-3
Obs from 4 (121, 109, 118, 127)
stations assimilated
(NO3, PO4 observations missing)
RM
SE
(ug/l)
DA for watershed water quality forecasting
MLEF-HSPF
• Plugin module for the Water Quality Forecast System at
the National Institute of Environmental Research
(WQFS-NIER)
– FEWS-based
• Module components
– MLEF-HSPF program
– HSPF processor
• Interfaces MLEF-HSPF with HSPF
– MLEF-HSPF adapter
• Interfaces MLEF-HSPF with WQFS-NIER
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DA for watershed water quality forecasting
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Ensemble Data Assimilation:
MLEF
Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran
(HSPF)
Import in real time
MLEF-HSPF Adapters
HSPF Processor
• Weather
• Water quality
• Hydrologic data
WQFS-NIERExport forecasts for display
Set parameters
• Forecast frequency
• Length of lead time
• Model links
MLEF-
HSPF
module
DA for watershed water quality forecasting
Ongoing work
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• Multi-catchment, multi-basin
evaluation
– Data analysis
– Hindcasting
• Operational implementation of MLEF-
HSPF
– Configuration for WQFS-NIER
River
basin
Number of
Catchment
Number of
monitoring stations
Han 9 86
Keum 7 21
Yeongsan 6 24
DA for watershed water quality forecasting
Conclusions & research questions
• DA is generally effective in improving accuracy in water
quality prediction
– Correction of model biases as part of the observation
equation is important
• MLEF handles nonlinear observation equations very well
• Improvement is larger for Banbyeon (natural) than Kumho
(urbanized)
• How underdetermined is the inverse problem? How to
reduce?
• Toward ensemble forecasting
– Verify and improve the quality (in particular, reliability and
spatio-temporal consistency) of updated ensemble ICs
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DA for watershed water quality forecasting
Thank you
For more information:
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