Enrollment Growth Initiative

February 8-9, 2017

Tim Fuller, Senior Vice President/Owner Roger Kieffer, Senior Affiliate Consultant

ABHE 2017 Pre-Conference

Overview

• Introductions – personal and campus

•Best Practice Enrollment Principles/Enrollment Truths

•Questions welcome throughout

•PowerPoint available tomorrow

“Higher education in the United States is at a pivotal juncture in its history.

Multiple forces, including

• demand for knowledge and skills,

• constrained public funding,

• public concerns regarding affordability,

• student demographic change, and

• technological innovations are driving a need for change at the system, institution, course, faculty, and student levels.

• Innovation leading to improved performance certainly seems to be in order.”

Pivotal Juncture

Louis Soares

Vice President for Policy Research/Strategy American Council on Education (2015)

The landscape

that is making the

job more difficult

Projected High School Graduates – Minnesota – 1997 – 2028 - WICHE, 2012

Changing Demographics

Numeric Growth: Adults

28% of all enrolled undergraduate

students are over 25 years of age

Projected Growth by

2019

51%

Babson, 2012

The Influence of Technology

9

•Options (“Swirling”) (Adelman, 2014)

•Multiple content options (Blumenstyk, 2015)

•Challenges faced in K-12 education (Lumina,

2013)

•Diversity of needs: SES, students of color, First-Generation

Student Success Complexity

Student Success Complexity

• The economic climate and its impact on:

• Family resources to afford higher education (Adelman, 2010)

• The confidence to borrow to pay for higher education (Hossler, 2009)

• Government funding: vulnerabilities and compliance

• Securing funds for capital improvements

• Financial aid discount rates

• Increasing cost of meeting expectations of constituents

The Economy & Financing Higher Ed

12

“Institutions lacking clear differentiation, a demonstrable value proposition, organizational flexibility and a strong balance sheet will face severe difficulties....In the face of this change no college or university can remain static and survive.”

- Unsettling Times: Higher Education

in an era of change

Marketing and Branding

13

• Mission expansion in search of additional students (the Christian higher education continuum)

• Challenges to Title IV aid eligibility given commitment to Biblical values

• Lack of clarity in the marketplace about the value of Christian higher education

• Building a sustainable business model in support of mission

• Sufficient enrollment/net revenue

• Enough majors, programs and facilities but not too many

• Finding and keeping talented team members

ABHE Nuances

Grow – more new students, better retention (and hopefully more net tuition revenue!)

Raise – annual fund, campaign, major gifts

Borrow – bond issue, other forms of traditional financing, borrow from yourself (quasi-endowment/net surplus)

Shift – (the hardest way) – stop doing something to do something else and/or do less of one thing to do more of another

Focus – get more with existing resources through training and raising awareness

Alternate – create new revenue streams

Partner – a continuum with cooperation on one end and merger on the other

The 7 Legal Ways to Get Resources

15

Given all these challenges, what will it take to succeed as an ABHE institution? • A continuous attitude of prayer

• Diligent, relentless, focused pursuit of the right things

• A compelling case for enrollment and support driven by alumni evidence

• A clear strategic plan supported by operating plans

• A strong team and a mobilized campus

• Strategic thinking about the Seven Legal Ways • Strengthening enrollment (including retention)

• Courageous leadership on shifting and cooperating

So Now What?

16

2/8/2017 17

2/8/2017 18

2/8/2017 19

What People Want

Perceived ABHE

Real ABHE

Brand

2/8/2017 20

• Leaders leading

• Accountability from the top

• Clarity around what success looks like

• Jim Collins – right people in the right seats on the bus

• Team roles

• Recruiting

• Data/systems/processes

• Hospitality

• Analysis

The Enrollment Truths – Leadership and Roles

2/8/2017 21

• Arrival branding/wayfinding

• Attractive admission space

• Campus guest coordinator

• Website facilitates the experience

• Intentional scheduling to highlight what guests need to see and hear

• Faculty

• The close

• Just enough events

• Campus tour storyboarded with script but still feels and sounds genuine

• Walk them to the car

The Enrollment Truths – Campus Guest Experience

2/8/2017 22

• Who to mobilize

• Faculty

• Athletics

• Physical plant staff

• Current students

• How to mobilize

• Information

• Affirmation

• Clarity on most strategic tasks

The Enrollment Truths – Mobilizing the Campus

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• Characteristics of a strategic pipeline

• External (to the admission office) champion

• Attracting students who might not otherwise consider the college

• Business plan with budget

• Achievable enrollment goal

• Impact on retention/student success as well

The Enrollment Truths – Strategic Pipelines

Rethinking “The Funnel”

NEW

PIP

ELINE ID

ENTIFIC

ATIO

N

Ath

letics

Pipeline Building: Identify Champions

Bu

siness

Mu

sic

Ho

no

rs Pro

gram

5 more students X 5 programs = 25 new students

2/8/2017 25

• Knowledge of transfer “facts”

• Swirling students

• Community college impact

• Quick turn-around on transcript review

• Transfer specialist (as numbers warrant)

• Articulation agreements and other steps to facilitate transfer traffic

• Transfer-specific guest experiences

The Enrollment Truths – Leveraging Transfer Recruitment

2/8/2017 26

• A focus on next steps throughout the admission funnel

• Applies to everyone in the recruitment process

• Implies knowledge of

• Where the student is in the funnel

• Next steps

• Accountability around the ability to move people to the next step

The Enrollment Truths – Moves Management

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• The best way to make the case is through alumni evidence

• Employment

• Graduate school

• Living out mission

• Outcomes data featured prominently

• Web

• Publications

• Conversations

• Campus visuals

• Outcomes data gathered systematically

The Enrollment Truths – Evidence and Outcomes

2/8/2017 28

• A clear elevator speech known and used across campus to make the case for enrollment

• Focus on compelling reasons to enroll since distinction is rare

• A functional and effective website

• Academic information

• Admission functionality

• Communication flow(s)

The Enrollment Truths – Marketing and Messaging

2/8/2017 29

• The right person/people

• Timely turnaround

• Leveraged financial aid and enrollment data

• Data protocols

• Effective training and use of current system

• Efficient processes

• Archiving of key data points

• An enrollment research agenda • Carried out

• Data analyzed

• Steps taken as necessary (“so what?”)

The Enrollment Truths – Data, Systems and Processes

2/8/2017 30

• Yield rates along the funnel (and by major, gender, geography and other key variables)

• Source code analysis – ROI

• Campus visit totals and yield rates by type and month

• Admitted student research

• Validity of admission requirements

• Market research (top of the funnel, parents, etc.)

• Predictive modeling

• Application and deposit trends by month

• Yield by counselor territory

• The competition

• Strategic financial aid analysis

• Benchmarking and comparisons

• Student success research

• Impact of policy decisions on recruitment and retention

Building an Enrollment Research Agenda

2/8/2017 31

Academic Program Funnel Analysis

ABC College - Academic Program Funnel Analysis

Program InquiriesApplications Completes Admits Matriculants

Biology 350 100 85 80 40

Business 1,100 150 100 80 20

History 100 15 13 13 7

Overall * 6,500 875 600 550 230

Yield Rates

Inq to

App

App to

Complete

Complete

to Admit

Admit

to

Matric

Biology 28.6% 85.0% 94.1% 50.0%

Business 13.6% 66.7% 80.0% 25.0%

History 15.0% 86.7% 100.0% 53.8%

Overall 13.5% 68.6% 91.7% 41.8%

* includes other majors offered beyond these three highlighted majors

2/8/2017 32

• A living document that includes: • Goals

• Strategies • Travel

• Campus guest experiences

• Marketing/advertising

• Top of the funnel

• Budget

• Responsibilities

• Review cycle

• Plan developed by admissions, updated and communicated regularly

The Enrollment Truths – Strategic Enrollment Plan

2/8/2017 33

Strategic Enrollment Plan:

This should be a living plan that includes: • Detailed Enrollment Goals (segmented by classification and time) • Benchmark and Reporting Variables • Territory Management • Marketing Plan (Admission) • Communication Flow • Event Planning / Goals • Internal Partnerships (faculty, athletics, physical plant, etc) • Budget Review • Financial Aid Strategy • Commuter and Transfer Strategies • Competition Study • New Recruitment Territory Strategy • Enrollment Research Plan • Historic Enrollment Data • Demographic Data

Bottom Line – where are we going and how will we get there?

Own your backyard!

Strategic geo-targeting of other regions

Data matters! A regular rotation of enrollment and market research focuses recruitment strategies

Your most important recruitment tool is the website

Your most important strategy is the campus visit

Everyone has a role to play in building enrollment

Clear and compelling case-making for the college in general and for specific majors/programs

Best Practice Enrollment Principles

Data Matters - Admitted Student Research

2/8/2017 36

• Since 2007 Credo has done more than 100 admitted student research projects with 58 college campuses studying more than 10,000 students

• Format

• On-line survey

• Survey incentives to drive response rates

• Standard survey with minor institutional customizing to ensure comparability on key data elements

• Summarized highlights follow from summer 2016 studies

Context

2/8/2017 37

Associate'sDegree

Bachelor'sDegree

TeachingCredential

Master'sDegree

Doctorate Medical orLaw Degree

Other (pleasespecify)

15%

32%

2%

24%

5% 5%

16%

13%

34%

2%

26%

6% 5%

14%

Matriculant

Non-Matriculant

What is the highest degree you see yourself obtaining at some point in your life?

Aspirations of Admitted Students

2/8/2017 38

• 1,988 non-matriculants answered this question • 48% said “yes” • And then we asked “how much more would it have taken?” • And they said “A LOT MORE!”

Would More Financial Aid Have Made A Difference?

<$2,000 $2,000 -$3,999

$4,000 -$5,999

$6,000 -$7,999

$8,000 -$9,999

$10,000 -$14,999

$15,000 -$19,999

$20,000 -$24,999

$25,000+

1%

5%

11%

9%

13%

19%

14% 13% 15%

2/8/2017 39

Importance of Various Factors in College Choice – Top 11

ASR 2016 - Importance Factors In College Choice

Factor Matriculants Non-Matriculants

Faculty dedicated to effective teaching 6.50 6.17

Faculty who are knowledgeable in their field 6.48 6.27

Good career preparation 6.39 6.26

Good academic reputation 6.26 6.10

Good career placement after graduation 6.25 6.10

Offering of a specific major 6.05 6.00

Availability of grants and scholarships (not loans) 5.97 6.09

Student body with whom I can fit in 5.92 5.83

Total cost to you after financial aid 5.90 6.13

Safe campus 5.85 5.60

Student body that actively gets involved both in and out of the classroom 5.79 5.69

Scale of 1 to 7: 1 = "not important at all" and 7 = "very important"

2/8/2017 40

Who Influenced College Decisions?

Influencer Matriculants Non-Matriculants

Mother 5.28 5.14

Father 4.69 4.57

Friend 3.73 3.60

Brother/sister 3.25 3.09

Teacher 3.23 3.19

High school guidance counselor / advisor 3.14 3.16

Youth minister or other church leader 2.39 2.26

Scale of 1 to 7: 1 = "not important at all" and 7 = "very important"

2/8/2017 41

• Virtually all matriculants and 61% of the non-matriculants reported campus visits to the college commissioning ASR

• In general, matriculants reported greater depth to their campus visits. They were more likely to meet with:

o a faculty member

o admissions staff

o students beyond their tour guide

o financial aid staff

• Most non-matriculants were well served on their visit and enjoyed it, but it didn’t do enough to sway them

Campus Visits

Data Matters – Benchmarking Budgets, Staffing and Funnel Ratios

2/8/2017 43

• Since 2008 Credo has conducted research for NACCAP (www.naccapresearch.org)

• It includes an annual study of the cost to recruit a student

• The next four slides are real data from an ABHE institution (names changed to protect the innocent)

• Let’s see what we can learn to apply on your campus

• St. Francis – “if we compare ourselves with others we’ll either become vain or bitter”

Context

2/8/2017 44

Admission Budget - Dollars

Average Budget Dollars

ABC

College

Selected

Schools

Smallest

Enrollment

Bible

College

Advertising $72,800 $74,000 $33,865 $41,101

Publications $12,836 $31,220 $12,312 $16,072

Electronic Media $1,000 $11,167 $4,556 $5,574

Direct Mail $7,123 $17,705 $7,665 $9,562

Marketing Subtotal (sum of

above categories) $93,759 $134,091 $58,397 $72,310

Travel $17,625 $38,258 $38,578 $39,942

On-Campus Entertainment $3,500 $61,359 $13,441 $23,462

Student Wages $19,200 $45,230 $27,039 $32,874

2/8/2017 45

Admission Budget - %

Average % of Total Budget

ABC

College

Selected

Schools

Smallest

Enrollment

Bible

College

Advertising 17.02% 8.92% 7.39% 7.40%

Publications 3.00% 3.84% 3.24% 3.25%

Electronic Media 0.23% 1.36% 1.08% 1.07%

Direct Mail 1.67% 2.20% 1.58% 1.65%

Marketing Subtotal (sum of

above categories) 21.92% 16.32% 13.28% 13.37%

Travel 4.12% 4.75% 10.96% 9.54%

On-Campus Entertainment 0.82% 8.38% 4.01% 4.80%

Non-Salary Total 33.12% 38.61% 38.91% 38.02%

Professional Salaries 40.15% 37.40% 35.61% 36.48%

Support Salaries 7.84% 5.29% 5.51% 5.57%

Student Wages 4.49% 5.89% 7.63% 7.32%

Total Salary and Fringe 66.88% 61.39% 61.09% 61.98%

2/8/2017 46

Enrollment, Staffing and Ratios

Enrollment, Staffing Ratios

ABC

College

Selected

Schools

Smallest

Enrollment

Bible

College

Total Undergrad Enrollment 331 692 307 420

Fall 2015 FT New Students 137 197 91 123

Spring 2015 FT New Students 21 27 16 18

Total 2015 FT New Students 158 224 107 141

FTE Professional Staff 5.45 6.20 4.18 4.97

FTE Prof Staff - Direct Recruiting 3.80 5.35 2.78 3.54

FTE Support Staff 1.11 1.50 1.07 1.23

Ratio: New Students / Prof Staff FTE 28.99 40.69 25.20 28.44

Ratio: New Students / Recruiting FTE 41.58 43.07 40.08 40.81

Ratio: Total Budget $ / New Student $2,707 $3,718 $4,056 $3,896

Professional Staff Overhead 1.65 0.85 1.40 1.43

Support Staff / Total Staff 16.90% 19.60% 19.40% 19.20%

New Transfers 72 55 27 36

Transfer % of Total Fall 2015 New

Students 52.60% 28.70% 23.90% 25.30%

2/8/2017 47

Admission Funnel

Admissions Funnel

ABC

College

Selected

Schools

Smallest

Enrollment

Bible

College

2015 Grads Who Inquired 8544 7199 2416 3969

Inquiry to Application % 2.45% 6.79% 13.06% 11.31%

2015 Grads Who Applied 209 488 212 295

App to Completed App % 63.16% 55.97% 62.89% 61.78%

2015 Grads Who Completed Apps 132 270 131 179

Completed App to Admitted % 93.18% 97.39% 94.37% 95.16%

2015 Grads Who Were Admitted 123 264 123 170

Admitted to Enrolled % 52.85% 55.83% 55.46% 54.66%

2015 Grads Who Enrolled 65 142 64 87

2/8/2017 48

If you had to choose ten data elements to watch . . .

• Funnel trends • Yield rates by key variables such as intended major,

geography, denomination

• Completion rate

• Persistence • First to second year

• Graduation rates

• Competition

• Market trends and demographics

• Discount rate/net price

Which Numbers Matter Most?

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If you had to choose ten numbers to watch . . .

• Campus visit totals, trends and yield by type

• Territory progress reports

• Student quality measures

• Admission office scorecard

• ROI/benchmarking

What would you add?

Which Numbers Matter Most?

Recommendation Make your communication flow systematic, automated, and timed interval-based:

• At all levels of the funnel: Inquiry; Application; Admitted; Deposited

• Key messages throughout the funnel • Process (calls to action)

• Promotional

• Segmented • Year in High School

• First Years as well as Transfers

• Pipelines

• Parents too!

Thank you!

Tim Fuller, Senior Vice President/Owner Credo