Enrollment and Facility Use Committee

Report to Board of Education January 10, 2012

Charge Statement and Focus Questions

1. How might we accurately predict the enrollment trends for the future?

2. How might our buildings best be used to plan for that uncertain future?

Strategic Plan Action Plan 4.B.1.c: Develop a build plan based on up-to-date forecasts that will inform SPLOST and other revenue needs.

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Historical Enrollment

enrollment

See: What Research Tells Us

12%

1%

7%7%

Since 2007 =

31% growth

See: What Research Tells Us

Research = no refereed journals

Our own Enrollment DataOther Data Sources

Pre-K wait listsHomebuilding DataCensus Data

See: What Research Tells UsEnrollment Calculation for

KindergartenSum of 2010-2011 Kindergarten and 2011-2012

Kindergarten enrollment Sum of 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 live births

Sum of 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 grade one Sum of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 Kindergarten

Enrollment Calculation for Other Grade Levels

Example: grade one

See: What Research Tells UsTwo-year Cohort Ratio

2011-2012

actual

2012-2013

projection

2013-2014

projection

2014-2015

projection

2015-2016

projection

3,246 3,574 3,905 4,218 4,538

One-year Cohort Ratio

2011-2012

actual

2012-2013

projection

2013-2014

projection

2014-2015

projection

2015-2016

projection

3,246 3,630 3,967 4,283 4,599

See: What Research Tells UsOne-year Cohort Ratio

Grade Level

September, 2011

Projection September 2012

K 353 353 1st 313 373 2nd 302 339 3rd 270 298 4th 256 297 5th 241 284 6th 228 288 7th 232 239 8th 226 243 9th 260 275 10th 218 259 11th 188 209 12th 159 174 Total 3,246 3,630

See: What Research Tells UsPre-Kindergarten Data

PreK2010-2011

K2011-2012

Difference

Clairemont Elementary 42 23.46% 79 23.65% 0.19%Glennwood Elementary 29 16.20% 57 17.07% 0.86%Oakhurst Elementary 67 37.43% 114 34.13% -3.30%Winnona Park Elementary 41 22.91% 84 25.15% 2.24%

2011-2012 Pre-Kindergarten Wait List53 residents 8 courtesy tuition 2010-2011 Pre-Kindergarten Wait List40 residents7 courtesy tuition

Pre-K enrollment zones are a valid predictor of Kindergarten enrollment zones.

See: What Research Tells Us

Homebuilding DataLenore Street development

9 houses Estimated completion August 2012

South Candler development

9 houses Estimated completion December 2012

Midway Road development

26 houses

Estimated completion January 2013

Source: Amanda Thompson, City of Decatur

See: What Research Tells Us2010 Census Data

% Δ% Δ

under 5

% Δ 5-9 YO

% Δ 10-14

YO

3.22% 15.38% -1.52% -15.19%

% Δ% Δ

under 5

% Δ 5-9 YO

% Δ 10-14

YO

8.65% 83.13% 29.36% -15.72%

% Δ% Δ

under 5

% Δ 5-9 YO

% Δ 10-14

YO

14.03% 28.51%117.58

%68.82%

% Δ% Δ under 5

% Δ 5-9 YO

% Δ 10-14

YO

-3.11% 16.44% 40.59% -5.36%

See: What Research Tells Us

Growth of Young LearnersCity of Decatur percent

Δ 2000-2010City Schools of Decatur percent

Δ 2000-20100-5 year olds 34.41% 93.96%5-9 year olds 34.08% 43.20%

For 0-5 population, used proxy of Kindergarten growth from 2000-2011; for 5-9 year olds assumed growth in 1st-3rd grades from 2000-2011

See: What Other Districts and Communities Tell Us

Using current

grade level enrollments and placing

those enrollments into the next grade level

Using one-year cohort

ratios combined

with qualitative interviews

Discovery: city birth rate data available from Department of

Public Health

See: What Our Stakeholders Tell Us

Survey and Focus Group with Realtors

Oakhurst could be 33% through transitionSouth side has higher densitySouth side attracts more families with younger childrenSummer is busiest move-in time

RecommendationsThe short-term overall recommendation of the

Enrollment Committee is to not re-zone or open up additional buildings for the 2012-

2013 school year.

CSD will continue to transfer students between K-3 buildings that cannot manage their zoned enrollments.Class sizes for 1st grade 2012-2013 will resemble the class sizes for Kindergarten 2011-2012.One trailer would stay at each school: Oakhurst and Winnona Park.Candidates for paying tuition for Kindergarten and 1st grade will not be informed of their status until July 11, 2012, thus allowing summer resident registrations to subside.

Assumptions:

RecommendationsThree Categories Processes to improve projections Strategies to accommodate growth Educational opportunities for the community

Recommendations Recommendation 1a: Develop an annual process

involving stakeholders to validate enrollment projection formula with other data sources.

Recommendation 1b: Institute a Pre-Registration tracking process on CSD website.

Recommendation 1c: Strategically publicize Pre-Registration tracking process with realtors and City of Decatur.

Processes to improve projections

RecommendationsRecommendation 2a: Consider how College

Heights and Westchester could serve some birth-grade 3 students.

Strategies to accommodate growth

Sub-recommendati

on 2a-1:Consider adding K-3 classrooms

at College Heights and

opening Westchester as a birth-grade 3 school with a

small enrollment zone.

Sub-recommendati

on 2a-2:Consider opening

Westchester as a preschool-

grade 3 school with a small enrollment

zone.

Sub-recommendati

on 2a-3:Consider opening

Westchester as a Controlled

Choice preschool-

grade 3 school.

Sub-recommendati

on 2a-4:Consider opening

Westchester as a Controlled Choice K-3

school.

Recommendations

College Heights Oakhurst Westchester

Sub-recommendation 2a-1 Birth-grade 3 Addition maybe later Birth-grade 3

Sub-recommendation 2a-2 Birth-age 4 Addition high urgency Age 3-grade 3

Sub-recommendation 2a-3 Birth-age 4 Addition high urgency Age 3-grade 3 controlled

choiceSub-recommendation

2a-4 Birth-age 4 Addition medium urgency K-3 controlled choice

Recommendation 2: Summary Matrix

Strategies to accommodate growth

RecommendationsRecommendation 2b: Begin addition to FAVE to

accommodate system-wide growth

Strategies to accommodate growth

FAVE was designed in 2009-2010, a year of 1% enrollment growth following years of 4% and 7% growth

respectively. At that time, it was not foreseeable that years of 7% and 12% growth respectively were to come.

RecommendationsRecommendation 3a: Host Enrollment Zone

Information night.

Educational opportunities for the community