enlarging the sorting hat: multiple measures for placement [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
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Enlarging The Sorting Hat: Multiple Measures For Placementbrad.bostian@
cpcc.edu
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Let’s Review Our Assumptions
Placing some students into developmental education is a good idea
Placement should be based on the knowledge students have when they enter college
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First AssumptionPlacing some students into developmental education is a good idea
After all, according to Clifford Adelman, students placed into multiple levels of dev. ed. fail to complete due to their lack of academic preparation, not the dev. ed. track itself
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Second AssumptionPlacement should be based on the knowledge students enter college with
ACT defines college readiness as the level of achievement a student needs to be ready to enroll and succeed —without remediation— in credit-bearing first-year postsecondary courses
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And These Sub-Assumptions• College readiness is about content knowledge• Placement tests predict college success• Placement test items reflect college work• Students understand the importance of the
placement tests• Students prepare for placement tests• Students survive developmental education• Developmental education improves college readiness • Developmental education solves the right problem• A blanket approach to placement can cover the right
students
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First Some History
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A Typical Chart From The CCRC Study
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Another Typical Chart From The Study
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Math In-Order Course Completion and Enrollment – NC
3+ levels below
2 levels below
1 level below
GKAlgebra
Referred to Level
3+1,507
TOTAL: 8%
Not completed 23%
Not completed 12%
Not completed 6%
Not enrolled23%
Not enrolled11%
Not enrolled9%
Not enrolled7%
• Sample: 2002-2005 cohorts, tracked for three years
Passed54%
Enrolled77%
Enrolled43%
Passed31%
Enrolled22%
Passed16%
Enrolled9%
Not completed 2%
Math students don’t get through
From Dr. Tom Bailey, CCRC, presented to NC State Board of Community Colleges. Does not include students who didn’t test
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22 Passed
27 Took Developmental
Reading By Spring 2011
326 Placed Into Basic Skills For Reading (7%)
4546 Students Began Fall 2010
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Our Students Aren’t Getting Through
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Not
Getting
Through
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Research Supports Using Multiple Measures To Place Students
Scott-Clayton 2012Poole, Shulruf, Rudland & Wilkinson 2012Kobrin & Patterson (College Board) 2011Morrison & Schmit 2010Sawyer (ACT) 2010Kobrin, Patterson, Shaw, Mattern & Barbuti (CB) 2008Geiser & Santalices 2007Lotkowski, Robbins & Noeth (ACT) 2004Robbins, Davis, Lauver, Langley & Carlstrom 2004Kobrin, Camara & Milewski 2002Noble & Sawyer (ACT) 2002Bridgeman, McCamley-Jenkins & Ervin (CB) 2000Smittle 1995Nordstrom 1990Sawyer (ACT) 1989Morgan (CB) 1989Troutman 1982
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We Could Flip The Ratio Of College Level To Developmental Level
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Developmental M
ath
Developmental R
eading
Developmental E
nglish
Any Deve
lopmental0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
41%34% 35%
56%
18% 19%25%
39%
Developmental Placement Versus Reg-istration: 5093 New Fall 2012 Students
PlacedTook
Students Avoid Developmental Classes
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The Mean HS GPA In NC Was 2.55
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MAT 101
MAT 110
MAT 115
MAT 121
MAT 140
MAT 151
MAT 155
MAT 161
MAT 171
ENG 110-111
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2.32.6
2.42.7 2.6
3.0
2.6
3.0 3.0
2.5
High School GPA Level Predicting C Or Better In Particular College Courses
Hig
h Sc
hool
GPA
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2006 (N121)
2007 (N319)
2008 (N5182)
2009 (N6879)
2010 (N646)
0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.50
0.28
0.21
0.38 0.390.45
0.010.06
0.14 0.16 0.18
0.02 0.030.09 0.09
0.17
Correlations With NCCCS ENG-111 Grade By HS Grad Year
High School GPASAT WritingACCUPLACER Sentence Skills
What Should The Expiration Date Be?
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2005 (N1) 2006 (N21) 2007 (N46) 2008 (N1279)
2009 (N1453)
2010 (N132)
00.05
0.10.15
0.20.25
0.30.35
0.40.45
0.5
0.00
0.26
0.14
0.41 0.390.43
Correlation of High School GPA to NCCCS MAT-161 Grade
Predictive Power Diminishes Gradually
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< 1998 (N33)
1998-2002 (N23)
2003-2007 (N37)
2008 (N8)
2009 (N10)
2010 (N27)
2011 (N90)
2012 (N161)
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00
0.040.10
0.01
0.86
0.450.39
0.27
0.46
Correlation of High School GPA to CPCC English Grade
How Long Are Transcripts Still Predictive? We Need More Data
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< 1998 (N16)
1998-2002 (N10)
2003-2007 (N23)
2008 (N12)
2009 (N11)
2010 (N19)
2011 (N59)
2012 (N112)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.05
0.22
0.47
0.66
0.57
0.44
0.30
0.43
Correlation of High School GPA to CPCC Math Grade
How Long Are Transcripts Still Predictive? We Need More Data
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MAT 101
MAT 110
MAT 115
MAT 121
MAT 140
MAT 151
MAT 155
MAT 161
MAT 171
ENG 110-111
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00 College Course Grades By HS GPA
0.0-2.60.0-4.02.6-4.0
Mea
n Co
urse
Gra
des
What Will Happen To College Course Grades?
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CPCC College Math Grades Should Go Up, Not Down
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High School English Grades Aren’t Very Predictive
ENG090 or RED 090 No ENG090 or RED 0900.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.27
0.34
0.020.06
Correlation Of Charlotte HS GPA And English Grade With College English
Grade
HS GPAHS English Grade
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What About Other States? Long Beach CC
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Here Is A Study From Long Beach CC In CA
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At Long Beach CC, They Flipped The Ratio
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How Does This Affect Cost Over Five Years?
PC per allied health major
PC per business major
PC per LAS major
PC per college-ready
PC per dev ed student
$30,564
$16,313
$17,246
$19,668
$17,010
Pathway Cost (PC): 2005-06 First Time in College Students after 5 Years
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That Depends How We Measure Cost
PC per allied health major
PC per business major
PC per LAS major
PC per college-ready
PC per dev ed student
$135,668
$117,837
$113,351
$74,544
$125,595
Outcome-Adjusted Pathway Cost: 2005-06 First Time in College Students after 5 Years
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Cost Benefit Changes Will Be More Incremental
• An increase of 15% in the rate of recent high school graduates completing college level math in their first year might take a 13% graduation rate to 15%
• And lower the cost per completer from $112,000 to $102,000
• Moving to 100% completion of college math by year 2 would take a 13% graduation rate to 27%
• And reduce cost per completer to $76,000
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Are All NC HS GPA’s Equally Predictive?
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Is Grade Inflation An Issue?
---*--- HS GPA---*--- College GPA
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• The CCRC study only got data on HS GPA for 37% of students
• There will be data and matching issues• Colleges vary in collection rates, from
>90% to <40%, with average ~60% • CPCC’s Rate Is Currently About 50%
What If The Student Doesn’t Have A HS Transcript?
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Our New Statewide Policy
Students place college level with 2.6 unweighted high school GPA by 2015 Fall ifTranscripts are 5 years old or less and have FRC codes 1-4Colleges will make local policies for out of state transcripts and missing FRC codesColleges may require students with GPA between 2.6-3.0 to take additional math labs for MAT 151 through MAT 171
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Future-Ready Core: Course of Study
The Core (22 units)- 4 credits of English- 4 credits of Mathematics- 4 credits of Social Studies - 3 credits of Science- 1 credit of Health/Physical Education- 6 Elective Credits (required)
• 2 credits from CTE, Arts or World Languages • 4 credit Concentration (recommended)
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Future-Ready Core Math Sequence
4th Math
4
+ +
+or
Algebra I
1
Geometry
2
Algebra II
3
+ +Integrated I
1
Integrated II
2
Integrated III
3
Future-Ready Core
In rare instances, students will be exempted from the Future-Ready Core math sequence. In cases where parents, teachers, counselors, principals and the students believe a different path is appropriate, the student will take the following sequence…
1 2 3 4
Algebra I or Integrated I
Algebra II/Geometry
or Integrated II
Applied
Math I
Applied
Math II
Upon Approval Math
Substitution
*N.C.G.S. §115C-81(b) will remain in effect for students with learning disabilities in mathematics that will prevent those students from mastery Algebra I content. This student will be required to take 4 math classes aligned with their goals and abilities.
*
Eligible for UNC System
Statistics
Pre-Calculus
AP Calculus
Courses such as…
Eligible for comm. college
Drafting
Engineering
Accounting I
Courses such as…
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Multiple Measures Policy Continued• Students not meeting HS GPA 2.6 will place college level
with:English: ACT Reading 20 OR ACT English 18
SAT Writing 500 OR SAT Critical Reading 500
Math: ACT Math 22 SAT Math 500
• Others will take Diagnostic Placement Tests
*No student should be placed into basic skills by placement test score alone, and without an additional measure
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Reviewing Makes A Difference From November 4, 2011 to June 27, 2012, students took 17,592 practice tests
•36% did the review•They went up 11 points on math, 6 on English•46% went up at least one level
•Saving $400,000 in unnecessary remediation
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Only 44% of colleges said they provided any practice tests, and “. . . many students did not know they were available” (Venezia, Bracco, & Nodine, 2010).
“It wasn’t a test of what you could do, but about what you could remember from a long time ago.”
“I came straight after high school, and I was doing algebra and geometry. After you are at so high a level, to come to college and get an assessment on just all basics—you’re really not in that mindset anymore. Even right after high school, you’re on to bigger and better problems, so to come back in [and do] fractions— what are fractions?”
Does Reviewing Make A Difference?
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Current tests have no projects, no research, no media, no writing process, no revision, no presentations, no formatting, no group work, no lab work, no purpose of interest to the student, no authentic assignments, no active learning, etc.
Diagnostics will help manage learning
Should Placement Tests Themselves Change?
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Content Knowledge
Academic SkillsAcademic Behaviors
PersistenceSelf-Efficacy
High ExpectationsSocial Intelligence
MemoryFinancial Resources
Family Support
Adult and college life College Instructor
My Theory Of College Readiness
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Let’s Review Our Assumptions
Placing some students into developmental education is a good idea
Placement should be based on the knowledge students have when they enter college
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And These Sub-Assumptions• College readiness is about content knowledge• Placement tests predict college success• Placement test items reflect college work• Students understand the importance of the
placement tests• Students prepare for placement tests• Students survive developmental education• Developmental education improves college readiness • Developmental education solves the right problem• A blanket approach to placement can cover the right
students