enhancing local readiness to adapt to climate change through role-play simulations · 2015. 2....

New England Climate Adaptation P R O J E C TEnhancing Local Readiness to Adapt to Climate Change through Role-Play Simulations

Danya RumorePhD Candidate, MIT Department of Urban Studies and PlanningNECAP Project Manager, MIT Science Impact [email protected] | (208) 659-1415 | http://necap.mit.edu

Four local risk assessments Development of

four tailored role-play simulations

Four local stakeholder

assessments

Multiple role-play simulation workshops in each partner town

Identification and engagement of key stakeholder representatives and local

officials in each partner town

Control group surveys in each partner town

Before-and-after surveys of every participant

Simulation debriefings

One-on-one interviews with sample of role-play participants

4-6 weeks after workshops

Evaluation of effect on individual

and collective understanding and

awareness

Evaluation of effect on collective adaptation efforts

Debriefing with key local officials and stakeholders at 18 months and 2 years

into the project

Ongoing observation of local board and

committee meetings following workshops

Danya Rumore1, Paul Kirshen2, Lawrence Susskind11MIT Department of Urban Studies and Planning, 2University of New Hampshire Department of Civil Engineering

These reports are available for download on our website:

necap.mit.edu

DUSPMIT This project is a collaborative effort involving a number of MIT DUSP graduate students, MIT undergraduates, and project partners. The NERRS Science Collaborative provided project funding. Lawrence Susskind, Ford Professor of Urban and Environmental Planning at MIT, and Patrick Field, Managing Director of CBI, were the Principal Investigators on the project.

CONTACT INFORMATION

R E S E A R C H Q U E S T I O N S• What are the climate change risks facing

coastal communities?• What can these communities do to

manage or adapt to these risks?• Can widespread playing of tailored role-

play simulations enhance the readiness of communities to collectively manage climate change risks?

• What will it take to build informed agreements in each community about the appropriate steps to take?

R E S E A R C H M E T H O D SPublic Polls | Two professional public opinion polls were conducted in each community, one in May 2013 and one in May 2014, to assess and track public attitudes about climate change and managing local risks.

Stakeholder Assessments| Key stakeholders in each community were interviewed to gain a deeper un-derstanding of local views on climate adaptation from different perspectives (government, business, civic groups, etc), and to assess potential opportunities and barriers to local action on climate change risks.

Summary Risk Assessments| For each community, local climate change risks and opportunities for en-hancing local resilience were broadly assessed, using downscaled climate projections produced by climate scientists at University of New Hampshire.

Role-Play Simulations & Workshops| A role-play game was custom-made for each community using data and insights from the Stakeholder Assessments and Summary Risk Assessments. A series of workshops then en-gaged local officials, town staff, and community members (500+ participants total) in a mock collaborative decision-mak-ing process to help participants collectively think about how to manage the climate change risks facing their community.

Workshop Surveys & Follow-Up Interviews| Both before and after each workshop, participants filled out surveys to indicate their views on climate change and managing local risks. In-depth interviews were also con-ducted with 20% of participants a few weeks after each workshop to better understand how the workshop experience impacted their perspective.

Dover, NH

Wells, ME

Cranston, RI

Barnstable, MA

A N E E D F O R A C T I O NClimate change presents a variety of risks for coastal communities, including possible impacts associated with sea level rise, more severe storms, and hotter temperatures. There are many things that at-risk coastal communities can do today to decrease their vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. However, planning and preparing for climate change will require that towns and cities make collective risk-management decisions, a challenging task given uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of impacts; disagreement among stake-holders about whether and how to adapt to climate change; and limited financial and technical resources.

In an effort to develop tools and approaches to help coastal communities move forward with adaptation, the New England Climate Adaptation Project (NECAP) is working with four coastal New England communities to assess local climate change risks, identify key challenges and opportunities for adaptation, and test the use of role-play simulations as a means to educate the public about climate change threats and help communities explore ways of enhancing their climate resilience.

R E S E A R C H S T R A T E G Y

S A M P L E O F F I N A L R E P O R T S

Role Play Simulation

PRODUCED BY:Massachusetts Institute of Technology Science Impact Collaborative

Consensus Building Institute

National Estuarine Research Reserve System

2014

New England Climate Adaptation PROJECT

Flooding and Climate Change Risks in Northam

Photo Credit: Strafford Regional Planning Commission

Stakeholder Assessment Barnstable, Massachusetts




2014


Summary Climate ChangeRisk Assessment Cranston, Rhode Island




March 2014


Case StudyWells, Maine




October 2014


SafeSorry

Climate Change Risks

C O M I N G S O O N !

ANTHEM PRESS

F I N D I N G SPublic PerspectivesKey stakeholders in all of our partner communities said that lack of public concern about climate change is a main barrier to adaptation. However, results from our public polls indicate relatively high levels of public concern about local climate change impacts. Additionally, many people think their town should do something to prepare, although they often lack confidence in the ability of their local government to take effective action.

Climate Change RisksFor each town, climate scientists at the University of New Hampshire developed projections of temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise for a “best case” and “worse case” climate change scenario. Local risks around flooding, drought, heatwaves, loss of economic activity, and ecosystem changes were evaluated, as well as options for addressing those risks through municipal planning strategies.

Role-Play SimulationsOver 500 people participated in almost 30 NECAP workshops between June to December 2014. In small groups of seven, participants played the roles of planners, engineers, business representatives, environmentalists, and more as they attempted to reach consensus on adaptation planning recommendations for a fictional town much like their own. Participation in the workshops increased participant concern about local impacts, sense of need for local adaptation action, and confidence in their local government’s ability to manage climate change risks.

How concerned are you about the possible impacts a changing climate might have on your town?

Not at all concerned

Somewhat concerned

Very concerned

PUBLIC POLL

Concerned

Lessconcerned

26%

21%27%

11%

15%

WELLS, ME

“I just wouldn’t have guessed that local folks could have as much impact as really they can. I think it was some-thing that the workshop brought out for me”

How significant do you think addressing climate change risk will actually be in your town’s planning and decision making over the next ten years?

Percentage of respondents per answer

WORKSHOP SURVEYS

PRE-SURVEYRESULTS

POST-SURVEYRESULTS

46.5%

51.8%

32.5%7.9% 11.4%

1.8%

22.8%

2.6%

21.9%

0.9%

Not at all significant

1 2Somewhatsignificant

3 4Very

significant

5

DOVER, NH

C O N C L U S I O N SRole-play simulations, when used as part of a broader engagement strategy, can enhance local readiness to adapt by:• Increasing concern about local climate change risks

• Increasing sense of local responsibility for preparing for and managing climate change risks

• Increasing confidence in a community’s collective ability to reduce its vulnerability to climate-related risks

• Enhancing collaborative capacity through enhancing understanding of other perspectives and appreciation of the need for collective action

• Catalyzing local climate adaptation efforts

“This approach gets people to think, ‘this is my town,’ we better get together to solve what we can, while we can”

60

70

80

90

100

110

Days of Extreme Cold (<32oF)

0

5

10

15

20

30

25

Days of Extreme Heat (>90oF)

da

ys /

ye

ar

1980-2009historic

2070-2099future

1980-2009historic

2070-2099future

low emissions scenariohigh emissions scenario

New England Climate Adaptation ProjectClimate Change Risk Assessment, March 2014

BARNSTABLE, MA

eve

nts

/ d

ec

ad

e

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1980-2009historic

2070-2099future

4” Precipitation Extreme Events

low emissions scenariohigh emissions scenario

CRANSTON, RI

Land inundated in the high emissions scenario, long term (2085)N

Sea Level RiseWELLS, ME

-workshop participants

How important is it that residents, local groups, and businessesbe involved in deciding how to respond to climate change risks?

Not at all Important

SomewhatImportant

Important

Very Important

PUBLIC POLL

54%

19%

7%

20%Less Important

3%4%

23%

25%

45%

CRANSTON, RI

How important is it that residents, local groups, and businesses be involved in deciding how to respond to climate change risks?

How concerned are you about the

possible impacts a changing climate

might have on your town?

Paul Kirshen, Ph.D.Research Professor, University of New Hampshire Department of Civil Engineering: Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space

Lawrence Susskind, Ph.D.Ford Professor of Urban and Environmental Planning, MIT Department of Urban Studies and PlanningDirector, MIT Science Impact Collaborative

PUBL

IC P

OLL

SR

ISK

ASS

ESSM

ENTS

WO

RKS

HO

P SU

RVEY

S

Sea Level Rise WELLS, ME

4” Precipitation Extreme Events

CRANSTON, RI

BARNSTABLE, MA

Days of Extreme Heat (>90°F)

Days of Extreme Cold (<32°F)

How significant do you think addressing climate change risk will actually be in your town’s planning and decision making over the next ten years?

DOVER, NH

enhancing local readiness to adapt to climate change through role-play simulations · 2015. 2....

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