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  • EnhancEmEnts in ConveCtive Weather ForEcasting For naS traffiC …€¦ · 3 9 21 30 45 60 90 120 180 240 300 360 resolultion, km FSS EnhancEmEnts in ConveCtive Weather ForEcasting
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0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 3 9 21 30 45 60 90 120 180 240 300 360 Resolultion, km 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 3 9 21 30 45 60 90 120 180 240 300 360 Resolultion, km 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 3 9 21 30 45 60 90 120 180 240 300 360 Resolultion, km ENHANCEMENTS IN CONVECTIVE WEATHER FORECASTING FOR NAS TRAFFIC FLOW MANAGEMENT Results of the 2010 and 2011 Evaluations of CoSPA FAA Convective Weather Research Plans, 2012 CoSPA rated favorably for use in strategic traffic flow management planning and supporting CCFP development Performance Assessment 2010 FIELD USE ASSESSMENT Strong Benefits Case: CoSPA incorporated in Traffic Management Initiatives and Improved Situational Awareness CoSPA performed comparably to the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) based on weather impact metrics CoSPA Performed better inside than outside CCFP polygons (based on Fractions Skill Score) Most helpful characteristics: Resolution, animation, storm intensity, growth & decay, and deterministic nature (because it requires less interpretation) Suggested Improvements: Improve accuracy in the 4-8 hour timeframe Add forecast accuracy or trending score Add winter weather Gather information on Air Traffic Management (ATM) use and needs for convective weather forecast uncertainty information. Continue to develop and refine CCFP-like automated polygons in response to Aviation Weather Center feedback. Investigate possibilities to improve aircraft safety and situational awareness on oceanic routes using better predictions of storm likelihood. Conduct planning activities to develop an ensemble based 24 hour global forecast. Document lightning effects during airport operations and quantify the potential benefit of improved lightning nowcasts. Improve convective weather forecast performance of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical model. Improve the scientific understanding of Convective Initiation (CI) phenomena and the performance in CI forecasting. + Improve the use of satellite and model based indicators + Develop capability to forecast large scale storm initiation Evaluate a new process designed to support ATM decisions by manually bridging the gap between automated forecasts and the information needs of ATM planners. The process is performed by individuals with both meteorological expertise and ATM familiarity. The evaluation seeks to quantify the value added by the human meteorologist. CoSPA, as seen left, is an automated convective weather forecast that: + Provides seamless forecast of precipitation and echo top heights from 0-8 hrs + Blends high-resolution numerical weather model with storm extrapolations + Maintains identical look and feel of the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) + Is interpreted like radar reflectivity + Is gridded for future integration into FAA Air Traffic Management (ATM) Decision Support Tools (DST) CoSPA shows reasonable skill at ~70km, the typical scale of a high-altitude sector.. Diagnostically, higher HRRR scores at coarse resolution might indicate better bias than that of CoSPA in the Southeast. CoSPA Precipitation Forecast Targeted Facilities and Users CoSPA Echo Top Forecast Estimated Annual Delay Savings Based on the analysis of 15 detailed case studies from the summer of 2010 10,000 HOURS OR $26.8 M 15Z Issuance, 6-h Lead Northeast Domain, 15 Z Issuance, 6 hr Lead Southeast Domain, 15 Z Issuance, 6 hr Lead CoSPA Climatology Climatology CoSPA CoSPA agrees with CCFP HRRR HRRR CCFP CCFP CoSPA disagrees with CCFP ARTCC TRACON Command Center Airline Operation Centers: + United + Continental + Delta + JetBlue FAA Facilities + Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) + New York ARTCC (ZNY) + DC ARTCC (ZDC) + Chicago ARTCC (ZAU) + Atlanta ARTCC (ZTL) + Indianapolis ARTCC (ZID) + Boston ARTCC (ZBW) + Cleveland ARTCC (ZOB) + Kansas City ARTCC (ZKC) + Minneapolis ARTCC (ZMP) + Chicago TRACON (C90) + New York TRACON ( N90) Targeted users: + Traffic flow management planners + Aviation meteorologists Correlations, Convective Forecasts vs WAF/50% Diagnostic, Jun-Sep 2010 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 2 hr Fcst 4 hr Fcst 6 hr Fcst 8 hr Fcst Forecast Lead Time CoSPA CCFP HQ-121503

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Page 1: EnhancEmEnts in ConveCtive Weather ForEcasting For naS traffiC …€¦ · 3 9 21 30 45 60 90 120 180 240 300 360 resolultion, km FSS EnhancEmEnts in ConveCtive Weather ForEcasting

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

3 9 21 30 45 60 90 120 180 240 300 360

resolultion, km

FSS

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

3 9 21 30 45 60 90 120 180 240 300 360

resolultion, km

FSS

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

3 9 21 30 45 60 90 120 180 240 300 360

resolultion, km

FSS

EnhancEmEnts in ConveCtive Weather ForEcasting For naS traffiC floW ManageMentResults of the 2010 and 2011 Evaluations of CoSPA FAA Convective Weather Research Plans, 2012

CoSPA rated favorably for use in strategic traffic flow management planning and supporting CCFP development

Performance Assessment 2010

FiEld USE ASSESSmEnt

Strong Benefits Case: CoSPA incorporated in Traffic Management Initiatives and Improved Situational Awareness

CoSPA performed comparably to the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) based on weather impact metrics

CoSPA Performed better inside than outside CCFP polygons (based on Fractions Skill Score)

Most helpful characteristics: Resolution, animation, storm intensity, growth & decay, and deterministic nature (because it requires less interpretation)

Suggested Improvements: Improve accuracy in the 4-8 hour timeframe Add forecast accuracy or trending score Add winter weather

Gather information on Air Traffic Management (ATM) use and needs for convective weather forecast uncertainty information.

Continue to develop and refine CCFP-like automated polygons in response to Aviation Weather Center feedback.

Investigate possibilities to improve aircraft safety and situational awareness on oceanic routes using better predictions of storm likelihood. Conduct planning activities to develop an ensemble based 24 hour global forecast.

Document lightning effects during airport operations and quantify the potential benefit of improved lightning nowcasts.

Improve convective weather forecast performance of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical model.

Improve the scientific understanding of Convective Initiation (CI) phenomena and the performance in CI forecasting.+ Improve the use of satellite and model based indicators+ Develop capability to forecast large scale storm initiation

Evaluate a new process designed to support ATM decisions by manually bridging the gap between automated forecasts and the information needs of ATM planners. The process is performed by individuals with both meteorological expertise and ATM familiarity. The evaluation seeks to quantify the value added by the human meteorologist.

CoSPA, as seen left, is an automated convective weather forecast that: + Provides seamless forecast of precipitation and echo top heights from 0-8 hrs + Blends high-resolution numerical weather model with storm extrapolations + Maintains identical look and feel of the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) + Is interpreted like radar reflectivity + Is gridded for future integration into FAA Air Traffic Management (ATM) Decision Support Tools (DST)

CoSPA shows reasonable skill at ~70km, the typical scale of a high-altitude sector..

Diagnostically, higher HRRR scores at coarse resolution might indicate better bias than that of CoSPA in the Southeast.

CoSPA Precipitation Forecast

targeted Facilities and Users

CoSPA Echo top Forecast

Estimated Annualdelay Savings

Based on the analysis of 15 detailed case studies from the summer of 2010

10,000 hourSor $26.8 M

15Z Issuance, 6-h Lead Northeast Domain, 15 Z Issuance, 6 hr Lead Southeast Domain, 15 Z Issuance, 6 hr Lead

CoSPA

ClimatologyClimatology

CoSPACoSPA agrees with CCFP HRRR

HRRR

CCFPCCFP

CoSPA disagrees with CCFP

ARtCC

tRACOn

Command Center

Airline Operation Centers: + United + Continental + Delta + JetBlue

FAA Facilities+ Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC)+ New York ARTCC (ZNY)+ DC ARTCC (ZDC)+ Chicago ARTCC (ZAU)+ Atlanta ARTCC (ZTL)+ Indianapolis ARTCC (ZID)+ Boston ARTCC (ZBW)+ Cleveland ARTCC (ZOB)+ Kansas City ARTCC (ZKC)+ Minneapolis ARTCC (ZMP)+ Chicago TRACON (C90)+ New York TRACON ( N90)

Targeted users: + Traffic flow management planners + Aviation meteorologists

Correlations, Convective Forecasts vs WAF/50% Diagnostic, Jun-Sep 2010

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2 hr Fcst 4 hr Fcst 6 hr Fcst 8 hr FcstForecast Lead Time

EWITI Daily Totals

CoSPACCFP

HQ-121503

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