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DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.
Engineered Resilient System Design: Submarines in a new Era of Undersea Warfare
Presented by Dr. Joseph T. Arcano Technical Director – Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division
18th Annual NDIA Systems Engineering Conference
October 26th -29th , 2015 Springfield, VA
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited. 2/12
Preparing for the Next Generation Submarine
• The U.S. Navy shipbuilding plan starts construction of the next generation submarine in 2034
• Historical trends show that concept development needs to begin at least 10 years prior to construction start
• Technologies, people, processes, and design tools must be matured now if they are to support the future program
SSN 688
SSN 774
SSN 21
10 Years Construction Start
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.
• Future concepts of employment and technologies are yet to be defined • The global pace of technology development is accelerating • A Submarine Concept Team, with guidance from a PEOSUB chartered
Flag Oversight Board, is using a systems engineering approach to address this challenge and prepare for an Analysis of Alternatives
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A New Era in Undersea Warfare
Challenge &
Opportunity
Fixed Uncertain Requirements
Fixe
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Defense Acquisition Guidebook - https://acc.dau.mil
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited. 4/12
Submarine Concept Team Design Process
Mission Engineering
War Game
Technology Screening
Submarine Concept Design
UUVs and other Payloads
Operational Assessment
Definition of System Capabilities
Ship & System Concept Development
Ship & System Evaluation
Future Threat
Assessment
Cost Assessment
Technical and Engineering Assessment
Tool Improvement and Technology Development Recommendations
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• A manual point-based design spiral approach is flexible and accurate, but very slow and manpower intensive
• Few design points can be evaluated, meaning limited understanding of requirement impacts
• Not ideal when requirements are uncertain or coupled
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The Classic Design Paradigm
Evans, J.H., ‘‘Basic design concepts,’’ Naval Engineers Journal, Vol. 21, pp. 671–679, 1959.
Vehicle Carrying Capacity
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DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.
• The goal of Design Space Exploration is to define a broader design trade space
• Increasing knowledge early reduces risk and cost • Design Space Exploration requires a significant investment
in tools, especially with regard to automating design synthesis
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Moving Toward Design Space Exploration
From limited investigation of relatively few design points
To robust investigation of concepts throughout the design space
Vehicle Carrying Capacity W
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Vehicle Carrying Capacity
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DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.
• RSDE is a Design Space Exploration tool for surface ships developed with long-term support from CREATE and ERS
• RSDE played a key part in the Small Surface Combatant Task Force and Analysis of Alternatives for the LX(R) amphibious assault ship
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The Rapid Ship Design Environment (RSDE)
Design Sustained Speed (kt)
SHIP 6 _ End Cost with Risk (TY13$)Area Available (m^2)
Service Life Weight Allowance (% FLD WT)
Weight Limit
Vehicle Carrying Capacity
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Feasible Region
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• RSDE capability needs to be extended to submarine design • The Design Space Exploration method will remain unchanged, but the
design synthesis, constraints and parameters will be different
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The Submarine Rapid Design Environment (SRDE)
Payload Fraction
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1. Design several baselines as starting points for Design Space Exploration
2. Determine design requirements and ranges for parameters, creating the bounds of the design space
3. Pick design points to evaluate using Design of Experiments 4. Run automated design synthesis and analysis tools to determine the
feasibility and characteristics of the sampled points 5. Conduct trade off analysis using design space visualization tools
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How RSDE Works
X: [min, max] Y: [min, max] Z: [min, max] U:=10 V:=12 T-V≤0
CREATE Funded RSDE ERS Funded Visualization
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.
• Pre-Milestone A decisions are very influential • Increased knowledge of the trade space from Design Space Exploration
enables well-informed early decisions and reduces risk regarding: 1. Requirements 2. Ship architecture 3. Concepts of employment 4. Military effectiveness 5. Technology selection and investment 6. Cost
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DSE’s Role in Acquisition
Defense Acquisition Guidebook - https://acc.dau.mil
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• Never been attempted before • No established automated design synthesis method • Compared to surface ships, submarine Design Space Exploration will
require: • Different priorities, technologies, and science • Different design constraints • Tighter coupling of design constraints • Higher minimum required fidelity levels
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Submarine DSE Presents Unique Challenges
http://www.navy.mil/navydata/our_ships.asp
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• High level visibility • Large return on investment • Demonstrable successes • Design decision aid that can be used by decision makers
The Navy is moving forward to develop this capability
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An Excellent Opportunity for the DoD