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Energy outlook and opportuni1es in I.R.IRAN By: 2 June 2016
Mohsen Pakparvar/Dr. Asali / Dr Modir (OPEC division in ministry of Petroleum) Senior Expert Head of Energy & Interna0onal Economics studies group Ins1tute for Poli1cal and Interna1onal Studies (IPIS) Ministry of foreign affairs Islamic Republic of IRAN E-‐mail: [email protected]
Investment in energy supply
OIL & Gas resources developed to 2035 Cost of produc@on
IKCO Vs. ISAIPA Group
New Policies on Oil and Gas Sector
Content
Oil & gas price decline and its effect
Oil and Gas outlook
EU scenarios for secure Energy
Cumulative global energy supply investment by type in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2035
Cumulative investment in energy supply and energy efficiency in the 450 Scenario, 2014-2035 ($2012 billion)
Evolution of global average annual energy investment in the New Policies Scenario ($2012 billion)
مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 5
Source : IEA
Global investment in fossil fuel supply
Change in average annual upstream oil and gas investment by region in the New Policies Scenario
Breakdown of cumulative world upstream investment by resource type in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2035
Oil resources developed to 2035 in the New Policies Scenario
Gas resources developed to 2035 in the New Policies Scenario
The cost of producing a barrel in oil-producing countries
مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 11
Source: Rystad Energy
The cost of producing a barrel in oil-producing countries
مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 12
Source: Rystad Energy
Estimated oil development and production costs
مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 13Source : IEA
Global exploration & production spending
مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 14
Source: OPEC
Projects Deferred Due to Fall in Oil Price
مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 15Source : Rystad Energy
Projects Deferred for Other Political/Technical Reasons
مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 16
Source : Rystad Energy
General Policies of the Resilient Economy: New Policies on Oil and Gas Sector
• Increasing the country’s oil & gas strategic reserves in order to influence the global oil & gas markets;
• Suppor1ng private companies for investment in explora1on (not ownership), exploi1ng and developing the country’s oil & gas fields especially the joint fields;
New Policies on Oil and Gas Sector (Continued)
• Enhancing recovery factor and ul1mate recovery from oil & gas reservoirs;
• Promo1ng foreign investment;
• Revising contractual frameworks to allow IOCs to par1cipate in all phases of an upstream project, including produc1on;
Oil and Gas Projects
29 Oil Projects
8 Onshore
21 Offshore
23 Gas Projects
8 Onshore
15 Offshore
Onshore
3 Undeveloped
5 Developed
Offshore
9 Undeveloped
12 developed
Onshore
8 Undeveloped
Offshore
13 Undeveloped
2 Undeveloped
Source: MEES
Green-‐Fields Brown-‐Fields
Oil Projects Gas Projects Oil Projects Gas Projects
South Azadegan South Pars (phase 11) Ab-‐Teymour Ilam Refinery
South Pars Oil Layer Farzad-‐A Ahwaz -‐Bangestan
Changuleh Balal Mansuri-‐Bangestan
Darquain -‐3rd Phase Kish Foroozan
Golshan & Ferdowsi North Pars Soroosh
Jufair , Sepehr, Susangerd, Sohrab, Bande-‐ karkheh , Arvand
Golshan & Ferdowsi Norooz
Khami Fields Dorood
Sefied-‐Baghoun , Sefied-‐Zokhour and Dey
Salman
Karun-‐Bangetan & NGL-‐1700
Aban , Paydar , West Paydar , Danan, Cheshmeh-‐Khosh, Dalpari , Naf Shahr, Sumar, Dehloran Source: MEES
Oil and Gas Projects
Oil Production Outlook (2016-2020)
(Tbbl/d) 2015 2016 2020 Crude Oil 2850 3860 4700 Condensate 560 680 1000 Total 3410 4540 5700
Gas Production Outlook (2016-2020)
MCM/d 2015 2016 2020 Gas produc1on 548 644 1000 Gas processing plant
580 680 1100
EU scenarios for Secure Energy
• Reduc@on of import from Russia • Expand it’s capacity {more Expensive) • Using of other transfer energy pipelines (CIS & Qatar,..){not fusible} • Import of Oil &Gas from USA (shale oil and shale gas, at the moment is not fusible)
• Increasing of LNG import (Australia , Qatar ,Africa ,..) need more investment and capacity building
• Import from Iran, more reliable and Fusible (Why) All right reserved for IPIS, for more informa0on ask: [email protected]