energy transition in poland - forum energii · 6 energy transition in poland 2017 conclusions •...

Energy transition in PolandEdition 2018

www.forum-energii.eu

2

Energy transition in Poland 2017

AUTHORS:

Rafał Macuk, Joanna Maćkowiak Pandera, Andrzej Rubczyński Forum Energii

ENGLISH EDITING:

Aleksandra Przygoda Forum Energii

Forum Energii is the Polish think tank forging the foundations of an effective, secure, clean and innovative energy

system.

All Forum Energii analyses may be copied and duplicated free of charge as long as the source and authors are

indicated.

3


Table of Contents

Introduction

Conclusions

Installed capacity in the Polish power system in 2017

Increase in installed capacity in 2017 as compared to 2016

Changes in installed capacity in the National Power System

Changes in installed capacity in renewable energy sources

Electricity production in 2017

Electricity production in 2017 as compared to 2016

Diversification of electricity production

Changes in electricity production from renewable sources

Domestic balance of electricity production and consumption

Changes in electricity demand

Changes in peak power demand in the National Power System

05

06

08

09

10

11

13

14

15

16

18

19

20

4


Table of Contents

Total greenhouse gas emissions

Power sector greenhouse gas emissions

Gas and dust emissions

Dynamic of GDP and greenhouse gas emissions changes

Electricity production structure in 2016

Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe in 2015

Comparison of SPOT electricity prices on neighbouring markets

Wholesale electricity prices in Europe in 2017

Domestic hard coal production

Coal import to Poland with country of origin specification

Domestic consumption of natural gas

Meeting natural gas demand

List of abbreviations

22

23

24

25

27

28

29

30

32

34

35

36

37

5


Introduction

We present to you our report regarding the Polish power sector. We point out data relevant to the changes taking place. Monitoring these is of key

importance for a correct diagnosis of the situation and planning activities accordingly.

The power sector is at the heart of the economy. Its purpose is to guarantee reliable electricity supplies at reasonable prices. The power sector should

be able to respond to changes in the regulatory and technological environments, and the decision makers should support this responsiveness. The most

important challenges include the reduction of environmental impact and modernization – introducing innovative, effective technologies, digitalization

and grid development. The basis for managing change is reliable information.

Transparency of the power sector is crucial at a time of considerable changes such as those currently taking place. Both business and society, the power

sector’s customers, should be kept abreast of these on an ongoing basis. We hope that this publication will at least partly fill the information gap, and

support the discussion on the achievements and challenges ahead of the Polish power sector in the years to come. We share with you our passion for

statistical data, as we believe that they can speak louder than many studies.

There is only one conclusion – the Polish power sector is changing. The greatest change is the reduced share of coal, which fell from 80% to 78% within

a year.

Yours faithfully,

Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera, PhD

Forum Energii

6


Conclusions

• The Polish power sector is slowly beginning to change.

• The generating side still remains the least diversified in the European Union.

• The share of coal in the energy mix decreased to 78.4%, while the position of RES and gas is growing in strength.

• Due to legislative changes, the development of RES has been suspended since 2016.

• The diversification of gas supplies results in increased gas consumption.

• CO2 emissions have increased in recent years, despite a decrease at the beginning of the 1990s.

• The lack of strategy for development and achievement of goals is the greatest challenge for the Polish power sector.

7


Generation capacity

8


Installed capacity in the Polish system in 2017 (GW and %)• The Polish energy mix is still poorly diversified - most of the installed capacity is provided by coal-fired conventional units.

Source: own analysis, based on data from ARE.

LIGNITE9.3 GW21%

HARD COAL22.0 GW51%

NATURAL GAS2.1 GW5%

OTHERINDUSTRIAL0.6 GW1%

PUMPED-STORAGE1.4 GW3%

RES8.2 GW19%

HYDROPOWER1.0 GW2%

ONSHORE WIND5.8 GW13%

BIOGAS0.2 GW1%

BIOMASS0.9 GW2%

PV0.3 GW1%

9


-200

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

Increase in installed capacity in 2017 as compared to 2016 (MW)• In the last year, the increase in conventional power was the largest in twenty years. This results from, among others, the completion of the investment

project of a coal-fired unit in Kozienice and CCGT units in Włocławek, Gorzów and Toruń.


HARD COAL PUMPED-STORAGE

LIGNITE NATURAL GAS OTHERINDUSTRIAL

HYDROPOWER ONSHOREWIND

BIOGAS BIOMASS PV

1 400

1 276

0

729

72 76

-236 5 47

91

MW

10


Changes in installed capacity in the National Power System (GW)• Over the last years, the amount of installed capacity in renewable energy sources increased.• Coal-fired power plant restoration investments in recent years did not result in increased capacity.


0

10

20

30

40

50

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

g HARD COAL g LIGNITE g NATURAL GAS g INDUSTRIAL g PUMPED-STORAGE g RES

GW

45

35

25

15

5

11


Changes in installed capacity in renewable energy sources (GW)• The system of green certificates has contributed to an increase in installed capacity, in particular in onshore wind farms.• The interrupted development of RES capacity at the turn of 2016/2017 results from significant legislative changes.


0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

g HYDROPOWER g ONSHORE WIND g BIOGAS g PV

1

3

5

7

9

g BIOMASS

GW

12


Electricity production

13


Electricity production in 2017 (TWh and %)• In 2017, coal was still the dominant electricity source, however, its share decreased by one percentage point compared to 2016.


LIGNITE52.3 TWh30.7%

HARD COAL81.1 TWh47.7%

NATURAL GAS9.3 TWh5.5%

OTHERINDUSTRIAL3.0 TWh1.8%

PPUMPED-STORAGE0.5 TWh0.3%

RES24.0 TWh14.1%

HYDROPOWER2.6 TWh1.5%

BIOGAS1.1 TWh0.6%

BIOMASS3.5 TWh2.0%

BIOMASSCO-FIRING1.8 TWh1.1%

ONSHORE WIND14.9 TWh8.8%

PV0.2 TWh0.1%

14


Electricity production in 2017 as compared to 2016 (GWh)• Due to weather conditions and new power capacities 2017 was a record year in terms of production from RES, mainly from wind (approx.

14.9 TWh) and water (approx. 2.6 TWh). Electricity production from gas was also record high – 20% more than in the previous year due to new units.• Increased electricity production from lignite was the consequence of extended operating times of these units, not new investment projects.• Late power unit delivery in the Kozienice Power Plant did not increase electricity production from hard coal in the National Power System.


-1 500

- 1 000

- 500

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

HARD COAL PUMPED-STORAGE

LIGNITE NATURALGAS

OTHERINDUSTRIAL

HYDRO-POWER

BIOGAS BIOMASS BIOMASS CO-FIRING

ONSHOREWIND

2 500

-509

43

-8

PV

1 199

1 589

76

431

-1109

-550

2 317

37

GW

h

15



0

40

80

120

160

200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

g HARD COAL

20

60

100

140

180

Diversification of electricity production (TWh)• The average mid-term trend shows slow diversification leading to increased electricity production from RES and gas.

TW

h

g LIGNITE g NATURAL GAS g INDUSTRIAL g RES g PUMPED -STORAGE

16


Changes in electricity production from renewable sources (TWh)• Initially, low-cost biomass co-firing production developed at existing coal-fired boilers.

• Subsequently, as a result of initiated investment projects, production from onshore wind and dedicated biomass units increased.

• Due to a faltering support system in recent years, electricity production from biomass firing units is limited.


0

10

20

30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

g HYDROPOWER

5

15

25

TW

h

g BIOGAS g BIOMASS g BIOMASS CO-FIRING g ONSHORE WIND g PV

17


Energy balance

18



g PRODUCTION g CONSUMPTION

Domestic balance of electricity production and consumption (TWh)• Since 2014, Poland has become a net importer of electricity, mainly as a result of the higher wholesale energy price on the Polish market compared to markets

of neighbouring countries.

140

150

160

170

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

145

155

165

175

TW

h

19



100TWh

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

g RELATIVE ANNUAL INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND

110TWh

Changes in electricity demand (TWh and %)• On average, electricity demand increased by 1.1% annually over the past decade. In the last three years, the dynamic of the year-on-year increase

in electricity demand grew to more than 2%; in the last year, it reached 2.27%. These values are lower than forecast.

TW

h

g ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

2007

153.91153.38

149.37

156.06158.25 159.07 159.92 161.25

164.57

172.40168.57

2.01%

-0,.34%

-2.62%

4.48%

1.40% 0.52% 0.54% 0.83% 2.06%2.43%

2.27%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

120TWh

130TWh

140TWh

150TWh

160TWh

170TWh

180TWh

20


Changes in peak power demand in the National Power System (GW)• Peak power demand rises more rapidly in the summer period as a result of higher air temperatures and a rise in popularity of air conditioning equipment.• Since 2006, the maximum power demand increased by 6.5% and in the summer period by 18.5%.

Source: own analysis, based on data from PSE.

18

20

22

24

26

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

g ANNUAL MAXIMUM

19

21

23

25

GW

g SUMMER PERIOD MAXIMUM

2007

27

28

2006

5 GW

3 GW

21


Emissions

22


Source: own analysis, based on data from EEA, EIONET, KOBiZE.

19

88

mill

ion

to

nn

es o

f CO

2 e

qu

ival

ent

Total greenhouse gas emissions (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent)

• The largest reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in Poland occurred at the time of the country’s system transformation. Since 2015, emissions have started to rise again.

0

200

400

600

100

300

500

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

19

96

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

-30%

-15%

-1%

23


Source: own analysis, based on data from EEA, EIONET, KOBiZE.

19

88

mill

ion

to

nn

es o

f CO

2 e

qu

ival

ent

Power sector greenhouse gas emissions (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent)

• The significant decrease in emissions from power plants and combined heat and power plants in the 1990s resulted mainly from the economic transformation of the country, and the elimination of some industry branches, thus limiting the use of industrial combined heat and power plants.

• The decrease in heating sector emissions in the 1990s was due to investments made to increase energy efficiency.

0

100

200

50

150

250

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

19

96

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

g POWER PLANTS AND COMBINED HEAT AND POWER PLANTS g HEAT ONLY BOILERS

-30%

-24%

-9%

-74%

-73%

-14%

24


Source: own analysis, based on data from GUS.

0

200

400

600

800

100

300

500

700

tho

usa

nd

to

nn

es

Gas and dust emissions (thousand tonnes)• SO

2 emissions decreased due to high performance flue-gas desulphurization systems installed in power plants and later on in combined heat and power plants.

• A slower trend in NOx emissions reduction is the consequence of using less sophisticated technologies (low-emission burners, non-catalytic denitrification

systems).• A significant decrease in dust emissions occurred in the 1990s. Further reductions are a result of retrofitting dedusting systems and construction of wet

desulphurization systems.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201520072006

g NOX

g SO2

g DUST

2005

25


Dynamic of GDP and greenhouse gas emissions changes• Despite a rapid GDP increase in Poland, greenhouse gas emissions have not been rising as quickly, which indicates the dissociation between economic

growth and rise in emissions.

Source: own analysis, based on data from GUS.

80%

120%

160%

200%

100%

140%

180%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201520072006

g GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION INDEXg GDP INDEX

2005 2016

26


Poland vs. the EU

27


Source: EU Commission, DG ENER, Unit A4. Energy datasheets: EU28 countries; own analysis.

Electricity production structure in 2016 (TWh and %)• Poland’s energy system is among the least diversified in Europe.• In terms of electricity production, Poland’s energy system is the sixth largest in Europe.

RES SOLID FUELS PETROLEUM AND PRODUCTS GASES NUCLEAR WASTE (NON-RES) OTHER

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

LUX

EM

BO

UR

G

AU

STR

IA

CR

OA

TIA

LAT

VIA

DE

NM

AR

K

SWE

DE

N

PO

RT

UG

AL

LIT

HU

AN

IA

FIN

LAN

D

RO

MA

NIA

SPA

IN

ITA

LY

SLO

VE

NIA

GE

RM

AN

Y

GR

EE

CE

IRE

LAN

D

SLO

VA

KIA

UN

ITE

DK

ING

DO

M

BE

LGIU

M

BU

LGA

RIA

MA

LTA

PO

LAN

D

TH

EN

ET

HE

RLA

ND

S

CZ

EC

H R

EP

UB

LIC

EST

ON

IA

HU

NG

AR

Y

CY

PR

US

FR

AN

CE

2.2

TW

h

68

.4 W

h

12

.8 T

Wh

4.3

TW

h

30

.5 T

Wh

15

6.0

TW

h

60

.3 T

Wh

6.4

TW

h

68

.8 T

Wh

65

.1 T

Wh

27

4.8

TW

h

28

9.8

TW

h

16

.5 T

Wh

64

9.1

TW

h

51

.4 T

Wh

30

.4 T

Wh

27

.1 T

Wh

33

9.4

TW

h

55

6.2

TW

h

85

.5T

Wh

45

.3 T

Wh

0.9

TW

h

16

6.6

TW

h

11

5.2

TW

h

83

.3 T

Wh

12

.2 T

Wh

31

.9 T

Wh

4.9

TW

h

28


Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe in 2015 (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent)

• Poland is responsible for 8.7% of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe and is the fifth largest emitter.

Source: EU Commission, DG ENER, Unit A4. Energy datasheets: EU28 countries; own analysis.

Cyp

rus

0

200

100

1000

Latv

ia

Luxe

mb

ou

rg

Slo

ven

ia

Est

on

ia

Lith

uan

ia

Cro

atia

Slo

vaki

a

Den

mar

k

Swed

en

Fin

lan

d

Hu

nga

ry

Bu

lgar

ia

Irel

and

Po

rtu

gal

Au

stri

a

Gre

ece

Ro

man

ia

Bel

giu

m

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

Th

e N

eth

erla

nd

s

Spai

n

Po

lan

d

Ital

y

Fran

ce

Un

ited

Kin

gdo

m

Ger

man

y

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

g POWER SECTOR GHG EMISSIONS g OTHER DOMESTIC GHG EMISSIONS

mill

ion

to

nn

es o

f CO

2 e

qu

ival

ent

Mal

ta

29


Comparison of SPOT electricity prices on neighbouring markets (€/MWh)• Electricity prices in Poland are the highest in the region.

Source: TGE, EEX, NordPool; own analysis.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

I II III IV

2007

80

€/M

Wh

g SE g LT g PL g DE

I II III IV

2008

I II III IV

2009

I II III IV

2010

I II III IV

2011

I II III IV

2012

I II III IV

2013

I II III IV.

2014

I II III IV

2015

I II III IV

2016

QUARTER I II III IV

2017

30


Wholesale electricity prices in Europe in 2017 (€/MWh)• Average annual wholesale electricity prices in Poland are usually higher than in other countries from the region, but significantly lower than in the

South European countries.

Source: DG Energy – Market Observatory for Energy: Quarterly Report (2017); average value of four quarters, own analysis.

g > 50

g 40-50

g 35-40

g 30-35

g < 30

46.93IRELAND

51.75UK

45.30FRANCE

53.83SPAIN

53.85PORTUGAL

53.93ITALY

49.53SLOVENIA

34.70GERMANY

39,.40THE NETHERLANDS

44.85BELGIUM

34.70LUXEMBOURG

30.98DENMARK

28.70NORWAY

31.38SWEDEN

33.20FINLAND

33.23 ESTONIA

34.70 LATVIA

35.15 LITHUANIA

37.55 POLAND

37.00 CZECH REP. 40.98

SLOVAKIA

36.83 AUSTRIA 50.35

HUNGARY

48.48ROMANIA

39.30BULGARIA

54,.70GREECE

€/MWh

€/MWh

€/MWh

€/MWh

€/MWh

31


Power sector fuels

32


Domestic hard coal production (million tonnes)• For many years, in the Polish mines, a decrease in production related to the availability of resources and production costs has been observed.

0

40

20

60

80

100

120

140

160

g TOTAL HARD COAL g STEAM COAL

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013200520001995 2014 2015 2016 2017

g COKING COAL

mln

to

nn

es

Source: Eurostat, GUS, Polski Rynek Węgla; own analysis.

33


Source: Eurostat, GUS, Polski Rynek Węgla; own analysis.

Steam coal consumption in Poland in 2016 (million tonnes)

POWER SECTOR37.0 mln tonnes61%

OTHER2.5 mln tonnes4%

SMALL CONSUMERSECTOR11.8 mln tonnes20%

INDUSTRY4.5 mln tonnes7%

HEATING SECTOR 4.6 mln tonnes8%

34


Source: Eurostat, Argus Media; own analysis.

0

4

8

12

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

g RUSSIA

2

6

10

14

Coal import to Poland with country of origin specification (million tonnes)• The year 2017 showed a reversal of the recent five-year trend of limiting steam coal imports to Poland.• Russia remains the main supply partner.

mln

to

nn

es

g CZECH REPUBLIC g UKRAINE

2007

g KAZACHSTANg COLOMBIA g USA g OTHER

35


Domestic consumption of natural gas (billion m3)• Gas consumption in Poland has been increasing slowly.

Source: GUS; own analysis.

g GAS CONSUMPTION g POWER SECTOR AND HEATING SECTOR g INDUSTRY g TRANSPORTATION g HOUSEHOLDS g OTHER

0

11

15

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1

10

13

bill

ion

m3

2

3

4

5

7

8

6

9

14

12

14.3%

44.8%

3.1%

24.2%

13.6%

16

36


Source: GUS, PGNiG, Annual report 2016, Gas Market; own analysis.

0

11

15

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

g IMPORT BALANCE

1

10

13

bill

ion

m3

2

3

4

5

7

8

6

9

14

12

g LNG REGASIFICATIONg DOMESTIC PRODUCTION g IMPORT FROM THE EUg IMPORT FROM THE EAST

16

Meeting natural gas demand (billion m3)• In 2016, 84% of Poland’s gas demand was met by imports, mostly from the East. A decade ago the share of imported gas was 79%.• Domestic production of natural gas has been decreasing steadily: in 2016 it was 400 million m3 (approx. 18%) lower than in 2005.

SHARE OF IMPORT 84%

g CHANGE OF STOCK

-1

37



- Renewable Energy Sources

- Greenhouse Gases

- Compound Annual Growth Rate

- Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

- Household Energy Price Index

- Gross Domestic Product

- Agencja Rynku Energii S.A. (Energy Market Agency)

- Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne S.A. (TSO)

- Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Central Statistical Office)

- Krajowy Ośrodek Bilansowania i Zarządzania Emisjami (National Center for Emission Balancing and Management)

- European Environment Agency

- European Environment Information and Observation Network

OZE

GHG

CAGR

CCGT

HEPI

GDP

ARE

PSE

GUS

KOBiZE

EEA

EIONET

38



- Directorate-General for Energy

- Towarowa Giełda Energii S.A. (Polish Power Exchange)

- European Energy Exchange AG

- Photovoltaics

DG ENER

TGE

EEX

PV

39


Notes

Energy transition inPoland 2017

energy transition in poland - forum energii · 6 energy transition in poland 2017 conclusions •...

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