energy transition in poland...15.4% electricity production in 2019 • the share of coal in...
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Energy transition in Poland Edition 2020
www.forum-energii.eu
Energy transition in Poland
2
AUTHOR:
Rafał Macuk, Forum Energii
GRAPHIC DESIGN:
Karol Koszniec
DATE OF PUBLICATION:
March 2020
Forum Energii is a think-tank focused on the energy sector. Our mission is to create the foundations for an effective, safe, clean and innovative
energy sector based on data and analyses.
All analyses and publications by Forum Energii are made available free-of-charge and may be reproduced provided that the source and authors
are identified.
3
Foreword (Dr. Joanna Maćkowiak Pandera) 05
Main conclusions 06
Generation capacity 07
Installed capacity in the Polish system in 2019 08
Change in installed capacity in 2019 as compared to 2018 09
Changes in installed capacity over the last decade 10
Changes in installed RES capacity 11
Electricity production 12
Electricity production in 2019 13
Change in electricity production in 2019 as compared to 2018 14
Change of electricity production over the last decade 15
Change of electricity production from renewable energy sources over the last decade 16
MARCH 2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Energy transition in Poland
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Energy balance 17
Balance of domestic electricity production and consumption 18
Change in electricity demand 19
Change in peak power demand 20
Emissions 21
Total national greenhouse gas emissions 22
Power and heating sector greenhouse gas emissions 23
Emissions of gases, dust and harmful substances from power generation 24
Electricity prices 25
Comparison of SPOT prices of electricity on neighbouring countries’ markets 26
Power sector fuels 27
Domestic hard coal production 28
Trade balance of steam hard coal 29
Comparison of basic coal data 30
Domestic consumption of natural gas 31
Supply of high-methane natural gas 32
MARCH 2020
5
Foreword
This is already the third edition of the annual report on the energy transformation of Poland. It presents the most important data showing the state of the Polish power industry. We focus on the production mix, emissions, electricity prices, balance of imports and exports of energy resources and electricity.
The most important phenomena of the past year include a record increase in electricity imports and a decrease in production in domestic power plants. The rapid development of solar power generation can also be seen, the installed capacity of which exceeded 1.5 GW. However, the pace of development of gas installations has slowed down.
The changes in the energy sector are noticeable, although it is doubtful whether they result from the state’s energy policy. Recently, an increase in energy production has been expected, but we are dealing with a record decline - admittedly for various reasons, but the most important one is the low price competitiveness of production. Electricity imports must be assessed positively, as this keeps its prices in check, although the question of its maximum level still remains to be answered. What is worrying is the stagnation in the reduction of greenhouse gas emission. It should, however, be noted that presented data concerns the year 2018, as they are published with delay.
We wish you a good read Dr Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera
President of Forum Energii
Energy transition in Poland
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Main conclusions
•• Decrease in electricity production, mainly from lignite and hard coal.
•• Increase in electricity imports.
•• Slow rise of RES, mainly due to prosumer photovoltaics.
•• The paradox of the domestic coal market: the constant demand for this fuel – decline of mining output - growing stockpiles.
•• Diversificationofgassupply.
7Generation capacity
Energy transition in Poland
8
Installed capacity in the Polish system in 2019
•• The share of installed capacity in lignite and hard coal remains at 70%.
•• Renewable energy sources account for over 20% of installed capacity.
Source: based on data of the Agencja Rynku Energii S.A. (ARE).As of 31.12.2019
HYDRO 1.0 GW 2.0%
ONSHORE WIND 5.9 GW 12.5%
BIOGAS0.2 GW 0.5%
BIOMASS 0.9 GW 1.9%
PHOTOVOLTAICS1.5 GW 3.2%
HARD COAL23.9 GW 50.4%
LIGNITE9.3 GW 19.6%
NATURAL GAS2.7 GW 5.7%
OTHER INDUSTRIAL0.6 GW 1.2%
PUMPED-STORAGE1.4 GW 3.0%
RES9.5 GW 20.1%
9
Change in installed capacity in 2019 as compared to 2018
•• The increase in the installed capacity for hard coal is mainly the result of the completion of construction of two new 900 MW units,
both in Opole.
•• In 2019, a more than 3.5 times increase in photovoltaic installations being put into operation compared to the previous year.
GASLIGNITEHARD COAL PUMPED-STORAGE BIOMASSHYDRO ONSHORE WIND PHOTOVOLTAICSBIOGASOTHER
INDUSTRIAL
2 040
5 53
-56
0
-2
55
-6
26
970
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
MW
Source: based on data of ARE.
Energy transition in Poland
10
Changes in installed capacity over the last decade
•• Over the last decade, the level of capacity installed in the system has been systematically increasing.
•• Between 2011 and 2015, RES installations were the ones being developed. After 2016 it was mainly conventional units.
Source: based on data of ARE.* Since 2016, the “industrial” category has been disaggregated by fuel type.
GAS LIGNITEHARD COAL PUMPED-STORAGEOTHER INDUSTRIAL* RES
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GW
11
Changes in installed RES capacity
• • At the end of 2019, 9.5 GW were installed in RES, of which 1.5 GW in photovoltaic installations.
• • The development of RES in the last two years is mainly due to investments in prosumer installations.
Source: based on data of ARE.
BIOMASSHYDRO ONSHORE WIND PHOTOVOLTAICSBIOGAS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GW
Energy transition in Poland
12 Electricity production
13
HARD COAL78.9 TWh48.1%
LIGNITE41.7 TWh 25.5%
NATURAL GAS14.5 TWh 8.8%
OTHER INDUSTRIAL3.0 TWh 1.8%
PUMPED-STORAGE0.7 TWh 0.4%
HYDRO2.0 TWh 1.2%
BIOGAS1.2 TWh 0.7%
BIOMASS4.5 TWh2.8%
BIOMASS CO-FIRING1.8 TWh 1.1%
ONSHORE WIND15.1 TWh 9.2%
PHOTOVOLTAICS0.7 TWh 0.4%
RES25.2 TWh 15.4%
Electricity production in 2019
•• The share of coal in electricity production in 2019 was 73.6%. This is 4.8 p.p. less than the year before.
•• The importance of gas continues to grow. Its share in the energy mix was 8.8% compared to 7.2% in 2018.
•• The share of RES in electricity production was 15.4%, the highest in history.
Source: based on data of ARE.
Energy transition in Poland
14
Change in electricity production in 2019 as compared to 2018
•• Significantreductionofelectricityproductionfromcoalresultsfromanumberofphenomena,includinganincreasedshareofRES
andgas,competitivelypricedelectricityimports,aswellasrenovationsandshutdowns(e.g.B1unitinBełchatówPP).
•• The increase in electricity production by wind power plants was a consequence of weather conditions.
GASLIGNITEHARD COAL PUMPED
-STORAGE
BIOMASSHYDRO ONSHORE
WIND
PHOTOVOLTAICSBIOMASS
CO-FIRING
BIOGASOTHER
INDUSTRIAL
-4 605
-7 708
2 282
6 289
- 17 - 5
675 310
2 244
424
-8 000
-6 000
-4 000
-2 000
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
GW
h
Source: based on data of ARE.
15
Change of electricity production over the last decade
•• In 2019, electricity production dropped by 3.6% as compared to 2018.
Source: based on data of ARE.* Since 2016, the “industrial” category has been disaggregated by fuel type.
GASLIGNITEHARD COAL PUMPED-STORAGEOTHER INDUSTRIAL* RES
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TW
h
Energy transition in Poland
16
Source: based on data of ARE.
BIOMASSHYDRO ONSHORE WIND PHOTOVOLTAICSBIOGAS BIOMASS CO-FIRING
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TW
hChange of electricity production from renewable energy sources over the last decade
•• In 2019, the largest amount of electricity in history was produced from RES, - over 25 TWh. However, this is still less than the assumed
trajectory required to meet international obligations.
•• Theincreaseinthepricesofcertificatesoforiginofenergyfromrenewablesources,i.e.so-calledgreencertificates,translatedin
2018 and 2019 into an increase in production from biomass combustion plants.
17Energy balance
Energy transition in Poland
18
PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION
10.6 TWh
5.7 TWh
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TW
hBalance of domestic electricity production and consumption
•• Electricityproductionin2019wasthelowestinfiveyears.Itamountedto164TWh.
•• Electricity imports almost doubled, to 10.6 TWh.
•• Estimatingtheexactdomesticdemandforelectricityisdifficultduetothegrowingimportanceofprosumerinstallations.
Source: based on data of ARE.
19
Change in electricity demand
•• Between 2010 and 2019, the demand for electricity in Poland grew on average by 1.1% and the GDP by 4.1%.
Source:basedondataofAREandGłównyUrządStatystyczny(GUS).
ELECTRICITY DEMAND GROWTH Y/Y CHANGE IN GDP ELECTRICITY DEMAND
4,5%
1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.8%2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 1.8%
- 0.7%
5.4%7.9%
6.6%
1.7%3.8% 3.8% 3.1%
4.8% 5.1% 4.0%
156.1158.3 159.1 159.9 161.3
164.6168.6
172.7175.8 174.6
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TW
h
Energy transition in Poland
20
Change in peak power demand
•• The annual growth of the maximum power demand in the system is slowing down. In 2019 it amounted to about 26 500 MW,
i.e. only 50 MW more than in the previous year.
•• In turn, the demand for peak capacity in summer increased by almost 500 MW.
Source:basedondataofthePolskieSieciElektroenergetyczneS.A.(PSE).*preliminary data
ANNUAL MAXIMUM SUMMER PERIOD MAXIMUM
4.8 GW
2.4 GW
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*
GW
21Emissions
Energy transition in Poland
22
Total national greenhouse gas emissions
•• In 2018, greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2, methane and nitrous oxide) remained stable at 412.5 million tonnes of CO
2 equivalent.
Source: based on data of the European Environment Agency (EEA).
mill
ion
tonn
es o
f CO
2 e
quiv
alen
t -28%
-12%
+3%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
23
Power and heating sector greenhouse gas emissions
•• In recent years, there has been no real reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in both the power and heating sectors.
Source: based on data of EEA.
0
50
100
150
200
250
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
POWER AND CHP PLANTS HEAT ONLY BOILER PLANTS
-29%
-76%-75%
-21%
-22%
-7%
mill
ion
tonn
es o
f CO
2 e
quiv
alen
t
Energy transition in Poland
24
Emissions of gases, dust and harmful substances from power generation
•• Reduction of emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides and other air pollutants is progressing as a result of continued implementation
of environmental protection solutions in power plants and combined heat and power plants.
SOX
NOX
DUST
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
tho
usa
nd
to
nn
es
Source: based on data of GUS.
25Electricity prices
Energy transition in Poland
26
Comparison of SPOT prices of electricity on neighbouring countries’ markets
•• After a sudden increase in the second half of 2018, last year electricity prices on the day-ahead markets in Poland’s neighbouring
countries returned to the level of two years ago.
•• Prices in Poland are at the highest in the region.
Source:basedondataofTowarowaGiełdaEnergiiS.A.(TGE),EuropeanEnergyExchangeAG(EEX),Nordpool,OTE,a.s.*from Q4 2011 on the basis of prices for the SE4 area;** due to data unavailability, the price in 2019 is expressed as the arithmetic mean of daily prices. Other prices are expressed as a volume-weighted daily average
10
0
20
30
40
50
60
80
70
€/M
Wh
SWEDEN* LITHUANIA GERMANY** CZECHIA SLOVAKIA POLAND
I
2010
II III IV I II
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
27Power sector fuels
Energy transition in Poland
28
Domestic hard coal production
•• In 2019, hard coal mining fell by almost 2 million tonnes compared to 2018. This trend has been ongoing for years.
Source:basedondataofGUSandPolskiRynekWęgla
COKING COALSTEAM COALTOTAL HARD COAL
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mill
ion
to
nn
es
29
Trade balance of steam hard coal
•• In 2019, imports of steam hard coal amounted to over 13 million tonnes, i.e. about 3 million tonnes less than in 2018.
•• Over10milliontonnescamefromRussia.OtherimportdirectionswereColombia,theUSA,KazakhstanandevenSouthAfrica.
•• Coalexports,mainlytotheCzechRepublic,amountedto1.7milliontonnes.
IMP
OR
TE
XP
OR
Tm
illio
n
ton
nes
-18
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
CZECHIA SLOVAKIA AUSTRIA GERMANY OTHERExport:
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*
RUSSIA COLUMBIAN KAZAKHSTAN OTHERImport:
Source: based on data of Eurostat.*preliminary data
Energy transition in Poland
30
Comparison of basic coal data
• • Even with electricity production declining, domestic consumption of hard coal has remained at a similar level in recent years.
• • The quality and price advantage of the imported fuel makes it necessary to store unsold domestic coal.
Source:basedondataofGUSandPolskiRynekWęgla.
mill
ion
to
nn
es
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION STOCK NET IMPORTS
31
Source: based on data of GUS, URE, and Ministry of Energy.
19.9%
10.4%
14.8%
51.6%
3.0% 0.3%
INDUSTRY
SERVICES
POWER&HEATING SECTOR
HOUSEHOLDS
OTHER TRANSPORT
bill
ion
m3
NITRIFIED
HIGH METHANE (EXCHANGE BALANCE)
HIGH METHANE (DOMESTIC PRODUCTION)
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2018
Domestic consumption of natural gas
• • The consumption of high-methane gas was 17.2 billion m3 in 2018 - 0.8 billion m3 more than the year before.
• • The largest increase in gas consumption was recorded in transport and services.
• • Theuseofnitrifiedgasremainsstableataround3.8billionm3 per year. It is fully covered by domestic extraction of this fuel.
Energy transition in Poland
32
Supply of high-methane natural gas
•• Natural gas imports from Russia account for less than 50% of its supplies.
•• In2018,theimportanceofotherdirectionsofsupplyincreasedsignificantly,mainlyduetocontractsforthepurchaseofliquefiedgas.
•• Domesticproductionofhigh-methanenaturalgas,coveringapproximately1⁄5ofthisfueldemand,isdecreasingyearonyear.
Source: based on data of GUS, URE, and Ministry of Energy.
2017
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION 44.9 TWh21.0%
GERMANY37.9 TWh17.8%
OTHER EU COUNTRIES1.3 TWh0.6%
NORWAY0.9 TWh0.4%
USA1.0 TWh0.5%
QATAR16.9 TWh7.9%
RUSSIA110.4 TWh51.8%
2018
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION44.2 TWh20.7%
GERMANY31.5 TWh14.8%
NORWAY3.7 TWh1.8%
OTHER EU COUNTRIES4.0 TWh1.9%
QATAR25.1 TWh11.8%
USA0,9 TWh0,4%
RUSSIA103.8 TWh48.7%
33
Notes
Energy transition in Poland
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Notes
35
Notes
Energy transition in Poland Edition 2020