energy technology perspectives for the iron and …d2f60904-8f5a-41ce-a7df-24...energy technology...
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Energy Technology Perspectives for the Iron and Steel Industry
Eric Masanet, Head, Energy Demand Technology Unit
World Steel 50, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 10-Oct-2016
© IEA 2016
• First clear signs of decoupling of CO2 emissions and GDP Global energy-related CO2 emissions remained flat in 2015 for
the second year in a row • Unprecedented cuts in upstream oil and gas investments,
and shifts to investments in low carbon and energy efficiency Renewable power capacity at record high with over 150 GW
installed in 2015 Rapid decreases in the costs of solar PV and wind
• Paris Agreement provided a historic push for clean energy New goals put forward to limit long-term global temperature
rise to “well below 2 degrees Celsius” Growing recognition that greater innovation is essential to meet
ambitious climate goals
Context
© OECD/IEA 2016
The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions
The scale of the challenge
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO
2 Renewables 32%
Energy efficiency 32%
Fuel switching 10%
Nuclear 11%
CCS 15%2DS
4DS
© OECD/IEA 2016
Other renewable power
Buildings
Nuclear
Transport
Appliances and lighting Energy storage
Industry
Biofuels Carbon capture and storage
More efficient coal-fired power
Electric vehicles Solar PV and onshore wind
Technology Status today against 2DS targets
●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track
Global clean energy deployment is still overall behind what is required to meet the 2°C goal, but recent progress on electric vehicles, solar PV and wind is promising
Global progress in clean energy needs to accelerate
© IEA 2016
Mission Innovation
Leaders of 20 countries representing: 67% of global greenhouse gas emissions 70% of global GDP 80% of global clean energy R&D investments
Each doubling its clean energy R&D investments over next 5 years Complemented by the private sector Breakthrough Energy Coalition
© OECD/IEA 2016
World Energy Investment: a new annual report that measures energy investment and implications
© OECD/IEA 2015
Mtoe
-300
0
300
600
900
1 200
Demand growth led by Asia
By 2040, India’s energy demand closes in on that of the United States, even though demand per capita remains 40% below the world average
European Union
United States
Japan Latin America
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Africa China India
Change in energy demand in selected regions, 2014-2040
© OECD/IEA 2015
Primary energy demand growth
Primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2015
Power is leading the transformation of the energy system
Global electricity generation by source
Driven by continued policy support, renewables account for half of additional global generation, overtaking coal around 2030 to become the largest power source
3 000 12 000 15 000 TWh
Change to 2040
2014 Renewables
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Other renewables
Of which:
6 000 9 000
© OECD/IEA 2016
The 2DS requires significant carbon emissions reductions to be achieved in all end-use and transformation sectors.
Industry’s critical role
Global CO2 reductions between the 6DS and 2DS by sector
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GtC
O2
Other transformation6%
Buildings 14%
Transport 18%
Industry 23%
Power generation39%
6DS
2DS
© OECD/IEA 2016
Iron and steel associated with the largest reduction in direct emissions, but CO2 emissions and energy use must be decoupled
The role of iron and steel
Direct industrial CO2 emissions and final energy reductions in the 2DS compared with the 6DS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
CO2 emissions
Cement Iron and steel Pulp and paperAluminium Chemicals and petrochemicals Other industries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
EJ
Final energy
© IEA 2016
Main innovative options for low-carbon steel Upgraded smelting reduction (SR). Maximises the CO2 content of the off-gases through
pure oxygen operation, making CO2 capture more straightforward. A 90-day pilot plant trial is planned for 2016. Avoids the need for coke or sinter.
Oxy blast furnace and top gas recycle: The CO2 content of the top gas is raised by replacing the air in the blast furnace with oxygen and recycling the top gas. Lowers coke requirements.
Coke oven gas (COG) reforming: Increasing the hydrogen concentration of COG through reforming tar to reduce net energy consumption. Through integration with oxy blast furnaces, CO2 capture can be added.
An upgraded DRI process that reuses off-gases from the shaft as a reducing agent after CO2 capture. Avoids the need for coke or sinter.
CO2 capture applied to on-site utilities and general combustion equipment. Addition of a post-combustion CO2 capture unit to: hot stoves, steam generation plant, coke oven batteries and/or lime kiln.
…Each of these options requires CCS for low-carbon production
Plus in a longer-term, molten oxide electrolysis relying on renewable electricity
© IEA 2016
Progress with CO2 capture in the iron and steel sector
© OECD/IEA 2016
Globally, 6% of the final energy use in iron&steel making could be technically recovered
2 EJ (or 1.3 GJ/t crude steel) could be technically recovered globally in I&S BOF off-gas recovery is the greatest overall energy savings opportunity in
the analysis Around 74% of the IEH recovery potential in I&S is based on non-OECD
countries
NOTE: Only medium and high temperature IEH sources (>100 degC) and commercial recovery technologies included. SOURCE: Energy Technology Perspectives 2016
Global excess heat recovery technical potential – Iron & Steel
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
BOF off-gasrecovery
EAF off-gas thermalrecovery
CDQ
GJ/t
cru
de s
teel
EJ
China India Other Asia Africa and Middle East Non-OECD Latin America Other non-OECD OECD Specific EH recovery potential
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
Sinter cooler exhaustthermal recovery
GJ/t
cru
de s
teel
EJ
© OECD/IEA 2016
Sustainable transport systems: implications for materials demand
Urban transport investments
In the 2DS, by 2050 one billion cars are electric vehicles while public transport travel activity more than doubles
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4DS 2DS
2015 2050
USD
tril
lion
Internal combustion engine
Electrified
Parking and road
Metro and light rail
Infrastructure
Vehicles
© OECD/IEA 2013
Energy technology roadmaps
Overview of IEA roadmap process
• Engage cross-section of stakeholders 1. Identify a baseline:
– Where is technology today?
2. Establish a vision: – What is the deployment path needed to achieve 2050 goals?
3. Identify technical, regulatory, policy, financial, public acceptance barriers – What are the near term action items?
4. Develop implementation action items for stakeholders
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy technology roadmaps
IEA roadmaps: a living library
2009 2011 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015
32 publications, 21 different technology areas
© IEA 2016
23% 28%
11%
3%
1% 4% 2% 5% 4%
1% 1%
2%
15%
Final industrial energy use , 2014 (154 EJ) Iron and steel
Chemical and petrochemical
Non-metallic minerals
Non-ferrous metals
Transport equipment
Machinery
Mining and quarrying
Food and tobacco
Paper, pulp and print
Wood and wood products
Construction
Textile and leather
Non-specified (industry)
Global, 2009
SOURCE: IEA Energy Balance. Note: Iron & Steel includes blast furnaces and coke ovens. Chemicals & Petrochemicals includes petrochemicals feedstocks.
Global, 2013
Regional, 2013 CEMENT
CHEMICALS
IRON & STEEL
Workshop 2Q2017?
A global iron and steel industry roadmap?
© IEA 2016
Conclusions
• The steel industry has reduced its energy consumption substantially and continues to do, but the marginal gains in existing processes are diminishing
• The close link between the steel industry and coal, makes integrated steel mills (and steel demand?) vulnerable to climate policy and pro-climate action (shareholders, investors etc.)
• The steel industry is not under immediate pressure to reduce emissions and innovative processes are under development
• Downside: they are over a decade from widespread adoption and they require integration of CO2 capture (which probably requires a CO2 storage business)
• Way forward (a roadmap for steel in a low carbon future): • Identify the benefits of innovative processes for environment and export reasons • Promote technology development projects to improve novel processes, e.g. more
pilots • Collaborate on other relevant R&D/projects: oxygen production, hydrogen
production, CO2 storage, enhanced oil recovery
© OECD/IEA 2016
Thank you