energy supply from wind power chris jermy 24 th february 2005
DESCRIPTION
Manufacturing Constraints To account for the variability of future markets, technological advance and the growth of the wind turbine manufacturing industry 3 different scenarios are going to be forecasted in order to determine the number of turbines available… The 3 scenarios used will be:Optimistic Pessimistic ProbableTRANSCRIPT
Energy Energy Supply Supply
from Wind from Wind PowerPowerChris JermyChris Jermy2424thth February 2005 February 2005
Structure of this Report
Potential output firstly needs consideration of: • Manufacturing constraints• Future turbine outputs
And Deeper Considerations:• Load Factors and Breakdowns• Further constraints
The British Wind Energy Association (BWEA) will be referred to for much of this presentation as its resources were highly relevant.
Manufacturing Manufacturing ConstraintsConstraints
To account for the variability of future markets, technological advance and the growth of the wind turbine manufacturing industry 3 different scenarios are going to be forecasted in order to determine the number of turbines available… The 3 scenarios used will be: Optimistic
Pessimistic Probable
How many turbines will we How many turbines will we have?have?
Year
No. turbines manufactured
per day
No. manufactured per year Cumulative stock
Current 0.66 0.66 0.66 241 241 241 1186 1186 1186
2010 0.70 0.67 0.70 256 244 255 2,466 2,406 2,461
2015 0.80 0.69 0.84 292 252 306 3,926 3,666 3,991
2020 0.95 0.73 0.95 347 266 346 5,661 4,996 5,721
2025 1.15 0.79 1.07 420 288 390 7,761 6,436 7,671
2030 1.30 0.85 1.15 840 310 420 9,861 7,986 9,771
050
100150200250300350400450500
0 5 10 15 20 25No
of T
urbi
nes
man
ufac
ture
d pe
r ye
ar
Optimistic Pessimistic Probable
Years from Present
Manufacturing Manufacturing Capabilities based on Capabilities based on
the 3 scenariosthe 3 scenarios
In the ‘probable’ case manufacturing rates begin to steady off as demand decreases.
Industry reacts stagnantly to demand in the pessimistic case
Massive growth of industry fed by demand of cheapening technologies
Future Wind Turbine Future Wind Turbine OutputsOutputs
Now we know how many turbines we could have, we now need to know how powerful they will be in the future…
The BWEA give the maximum outputs that can be reached for both off and onshore wind turbines. - Onshore turbines in the future will reach ~2MWbut this may effect manufacturing rates so we will stick to outputs similar to Swaffham’s 1.5MW’s.
- The maximum for offshore turbines will be ~5MW but again we will be conservative and say 3MW.
The BWEA are much more optimistic towards onshore wind turbines so for the sake of estimation we will say that the ratio of future onshore to offshore wind turbine deployment will be 70/30 in favour of onshore wind farms, which will stay constant in my predictions.
The total number of turbines were rationed according to the 70/30 split and multiplied by the specified outputs from the previous slide of 1.5MW and 3MW respectively.
Estimating the Output of the Onshore and Offshore Turbines
Total Energy from Total Energy from available wind turbinesavailable wind turbines
YearTotal no of
turbinesEnergy from
onshore (MW)Energy from
offshore (MW) Total Energy (MW)
2010 2,466 2,406 2,461 2,589 2526 2584 2,219 2,165 2,215 4,808 4,691 4,796
2015 3,926 3,666 3,991 4,122 3,870 4,190 3,535 3,317 3,591 7657 7,187 7,781
2020 5,661 4,996 5,721 5,944 5,245 6,007 5,094 4,720 5,149 11,038 9,965 11,156
2025 7,761 6,436 7,671 8,149 6,758 8,054 6,985 6,082 6,904 15,134 12,840 14,958
2030 9,861 7,986 9,771 10,354 8,385 10,26
0 8,875 7,187 8,794 19,229 15,572 19,054
Final CalculationsFinal CalculationsYear
Total Energy (MW) Peta joules
2010 4,808 4,691 4,796 151.7 148.0 151.32015 7657 7,187 7,781 242.6 226.8 226.8
2020 11,038 9,965 11,156 348.3 314.5 352.0
2025 15,134 12,840 14,958 477.6 405.2 472.0
2030 19,229 15,572 19,054 606.8 491.4 601.2
Further CalculationsFurther Calculations
Energy available after considering the Load factor for
the probable scenario(PJ)
Energy available after considering the No of failures
~5% (PJ)
45.4 43.1
68.0 64.6
105.6 100.3
141.6 134.5
180.36 171.3
Further ConsiderationsFurther Considerations Wind resource is variable Landscape designations-
SSSI’s Urban areas Civil and military airports Grid Transport infrastructure
Examples of Constraints Examples of Constraints on Wind Energyon Wind Energy
This is an area near Southampton with restriction zones around residential localities
This is an area of the South East with the most useful average wind speed of 7 to 8 m/s.
ConclusionsConclusionsCould have a vast resource in 2030, however the unpredictability of growth lies much on the shoulders of government policy and local authority implementation, as finding appropriate areas on land (where the most suitable resource is) is fraught with opposition.