energy policies for developing countries: the case of namibia · ¾area: 824292 km2; more...

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d e

16th Annual Meeting of the Reform Group Schloss Leopoldskron, Salzburg,

August/September 2011

Energy Policies for Developing Countries: The Case of Namibia

Hans-Joachim Ziesing

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d eAgenda

A more touristy introduction

Namibia in facts and figures

Namibia in an international context

Energy efficiency: Ideas, plans and activities

Conclusions

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d eWhere Namibia is

Namibia: 824116 km2 ( 2,6 pop/km2)Germany: 357112 km2 (229 pop/km2)

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d eOkavango near Rundu

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d eFish River Canyon in south of Namibia

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d eSunset at Namib Rand Nature Reserve in Namibia

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d eOkavango near Rundu

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d eTypical landscape in Namibia (near to Omaruru)

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d eAgenda





Conclusions

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d eBasis figures for Namibia

Area: 824292 km2; more than double as large as GermanyNamibia has a population of only 2.17 million (2009), with almost two-thirds living in rural areas. Population density: 2.6 inhabitants per km2

More than 70% of the urban areas and some 15% of rural households are connected to the electricity grid. Most households do not have access to commercial electricity. For 2008 the electrification rate was 34%.Independent republic since March 21, 1990Official language: English since 1990TPES: 1.7 million toe (2009)Total electricity consumption: 3.5 TWh (2009)Total CO2 emissions: 3.9 million tonnes (2008).

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d eTrends in Namibia

Namibia together with only six other countries out of a total of 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa is classified as an “upper middle income economy” with an expanding economy. [GDP (ExR) per capita: 2673 US-$; GDP (PPP) per capita: 5820 US-$]The annual economic growth from 1990 to 2009 was 4.3% and from 2000 to 2009 even 4.5 %.In the period 1995 to 2009, the primary energy supply expanded with an annual rate of 4.6% (2000/2009: 5.9%) and the total electricity consumption with 6.0% (2000/2009: 5.2%).CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion amounted to around 3.9 million tonnes in 2008, almost 120% higher than 1995. This means an annual increase of 6.1%.

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d eNamibia: Energy Supply and Consumption 2009 (ktoe)

Coal & peat

Crude oil

Petroleum products Gas Nuclear Hydro

Geotherm./

solar etc.

Combust. Renw. & waste

Electricity Heat Total

Production 123 0 206 329 Imports 105 1110 189 1404 Exports -12 -12 Intl. Marine bunkers 0 Stock changes -8 -8 TPES 105 1102 123 206 177 1713

Electricity and CHP plants -105 -2 -123 150 -80 Petroleum refineries 0 Other transformation* -23 -23

TFC 1100 206 304 1610 INDUSTRY SECTOR 92 55 147 TRANSPORT SECTOR 701 701

Aviation 44 44 Road 630 630 Non-specified 27 27

OTHER SECTORS 301 0 206 249 756 Residential 0 206 206 Comm. and publ. Services 3 3 Agriculture/forestry 223 223 Non-specified** 75 249 324

NON-ENERGY USE 6 6 Electricity generated - GWh 304 9 1429 1742 Heat generated - TJ 0 * Includes transfers, statistical differences, own use and distribution losses. ** Includes fishingSource: IEA, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries (2011 Edition)

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d eReserves/Resources of Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Hard Coal and Uranium 2007 in Namibia and Worldwide

Namibia World Namibia World Namibia World Namibia World

Production 2007 . 3882 . 3013 . 5523 2,9 41

Cumulative Production 2007 . 150864 . 86793 91,8 2152

Reserves . 163524 62 182830 0 710602 56,0 1766

Resources 20 82056 300 206770 350 14800016 275,0 15984

Total Potential 20 396444 362 476396 423,0 19902

Remaining Potential 20 245580 362 389600 350 15510616 331,2 17750

source: Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Germany,Hanover, 2008.

million tonnes billion cubic metres million tonnes 1000 tonnes

Crude Oil Natural Gas Hard Coal Uranium

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d eWorldwide Production of Uranium 2009: The most important countries

Productiont U country cumulative

Kazkhstan 9476 18.7 18.7Canada 8611 17.0 35.6Australia 6637 13.1 48.7Namibia 3413 6.7 55.4Russia 3153 6.2 61.6Niger 2879 5.7 67.3Uzbekistan 2320 4.6 71.9USA 1654 3.3 75.1Ukraine 846 1.7 76.8China, PR 750 1.5 78.3Others 11034 21.7 100.0Total world 50773 100.0

Share in %

source: Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Germany,Hanover, 2010.

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d eSolar Technologies installed in Namibia 2004 to 2007

Data in kWpeak 2004 2005 2006 2007

PV electric 16,8 94,7 94,4 138,7

Solar water pumping 36,7 25,0 95,9 180,2

Solar thermal 356 642 2018 4313

REEEI renewable energy survey 2008

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d eAgenda





Conclusions

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d eNamibia in an international context: Some results

Namibia belongs to the countries with …the lowest energy intensitya very low energy consumption per capitaa low electricity intensitya low electricity consumption per capitaa high share of renewable energiesthe lowest self-sufficiency and vice versa a very high import dependencylow CO2 emissions intensity andlow CO2 emissions per capita

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d eStandardised values of GDP (PPP) per capita and energy intensity (TPES/GDP-PPP) in 2006 in 153 countries and regions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

countries No.

wor

ld-w

ide

aver

age

= 1

GDP(PPP)/capTPES/GDP(PPP)

Namibia

Germany

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d eCorrelation between GDP (PPP) per capita and energy intensity (TPES/GDP-PPP) in 2006 in 153 countries and regions

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000

GDP-PPP/cap (constant 2000 US$ PPP/cap.)

TPES

/GD

P-PP

P (to

e/th

ousa

nd 2

000

US$

PPP

)

Namibia Germany

Namibia belongs to the countries with the lowest energy intensity

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d eEnergy intensity in 2006 in 46 selected countries and regions

0.15

0.10

World: 0.20

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

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al

source: IEA,2008.

TPES

per

GD

P(PP

P) in

toe/

thou

sand

200

0 U

S$

Namibia belongs to the countries with the lowest energy intensity

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d ePrimary energy consumption and GDP (PPP) per capita in 2006 in 148 countries and regions

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000GDP-PPP/cap (constant 2000 US$ PPP/cap.)

TPES

per

cap

ita (t

oe/c

ap)

Namibia

Germany

Namibia belongs to the countries with a very low energy consumption per capita

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d eCorrelation between GDP (PPP) per capita and electricity intensity in 2006 in 153 countries and regions

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000


Elec

tric

ity c

onsu

mpt

ion/

GD

P-PP

P (in

kW

h pe

r 200

0 U

S$ P

PP)

Namibia Germany

Namibia belongs to the countries with a low electricity intensity

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d eElectricity intensity in 2006 in countries with more than 1000 kWh/cap. (61 countries)

0.26

0.22

World: 0.30

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

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source: IEA, 2008.

Elec

tric

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onsu

mpt

ion

per G

DP

PPP

(kW

h pe

r 200

0 U

S$ P

PP)

Namibia belongs to the countrieswith a low electricity intensity

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d eElectricity consumption and GDP (PPP) per capita in 2006 in 144 countries and regions

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000


Elec

tric

ity c

onsu

mpt

iuon

per

cap

ita (1

000

kWh/

cap)

Namibia

Germany

Namibia belongs to the countries with a low electricity consumption per capita

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d eShare of renewable energies in total primary energy supply (TPES) in selected countries in 2007

20.9

7.9

48.3

World: 12.4 %

0

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source: IEA, 2009.

Shar

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rene

wab

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in T

PES

in %

Namibia belongs to the countries with a high share of renewable energies

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d eSelf sufficiency in 2007 in 121 countries and regions

Algeria

Libya

Congo

Gabon

Angola

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

source: IEA, 2009.

Ene

rgy

prod

uctio

n/TP

ES

Namibia Africa

Namibia belongs to the countries with the lowest self-sufficiency

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d eCorrelation between GDP (PPP) per capita and CO2 emissions intensity (CO2 /GDP-PPP) in 2006 in 142 countries and regions

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000

GDP-PPP/cap (constant 2000 US$ PPP(cap)

CO

2 em

issi

ons

per u

nit o

f GD

P-PP

P (k

g C

O2/U

S-$

PPP)

source: IEA, 2008.

Germany

Namibia

Namibia belongs to the countries with a low CO2 emissions intensity

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d eIntensity of CO2 emissions in 2006 in 144 countries and regions

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

source: IEA, 2007.

kg C

O2

/ US$

usi

ng 2

000

pric

es P

PP

country's No.

Germany

Namibia

Namibia belongs to the countries with a low CO2 emissions intensity

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d eCO2 emissions per capita in 2006 in countries/regions with emissions of 1 t CO2 per capita and more in 2006 (49 countries)

1.45

10.0

0

world 4.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 K

uwai

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ustra

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Uni

ted

Stat

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and

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garia

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Indi

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eru

source: IEA, 2008.

CO

2 em

issi

ons

per c

apita

(in

t CO

2)

Namibia belongs to the countries with low CO2 emissions per capita

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Namibia belongs to the countries with …the lowest energy intensitya very low energy consumption per capitaa low electricity intensitya low electricity consumption per capitaa high share of renewable energiesthe lowest self-sufficiency and vice versa a very high import dependencylow CO2 emissions intensity andlow CO2 emissions per capita

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d eAgenda





Conclusions

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d eThe growing role of the electricity sector ….

high annual growth in electricity demand of 5 % or more;development of export processing zones (EPZ);electricity required for water pumping and desalination projects;new opportunities for mining development;continued emphasis on improving household access to electricity, andthe considerable investments needed to expand the capacity of the electricity system.

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d e… causes some essential challenges

increasing sector efficiency;improving access to electricity in a sustainable manner, particularly in rural areas;increasing security of supply, while taking into account the risk of stranded investments;promotion and development of the sector as a key vehicle for investment and growth;ensuring environmental and socio-economic sustainability;alleviation of resource constraints in the electricity sector; anddevelopment of an efficient and appropriate governance framework and structure”

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d e… first reactions

legislation for the electricity sector was developed, and with the Electricity Act of 2000 (revised in 2007) the Electricity Control Board (ECB) was created as the industry regulator; Regional Electricity Distributors (RED) have been established, but by June 2009, only three of the five envisaged distribution bodies had become operational; the Rural Electrification Distribution Master Plan and the Off-grid Energisation Master Plan were elaborated 2007; a division for renewable energy in the Ministry as well as the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Institute (REEEI) were created, and a Solar Revolving Fund was established, which provided financing for solar home systems and water heaters,starting a program for energy-shops.

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d eActivities for improving energy efficien cy

The only official policy paper dealing specifically with considerations on energy efficiency is the White Paper on Energy Policy of 1998 by the Ministry of Mines and Energy. Studies on Demand-Side-Management and subsequent measuresA more specific action plan or strategy, similar to the one adopted in South Africa in March 2005 and June 2009, has been initially drafted by the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Institute in 2008.The National Energy Efficiency Programme

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d eAccording to the White Paper on Energy Policy the Government will …

investigate the nature of energy end-use patterns in all sectors and use the data captured to monitor and assess energy efficiency in these sectors.embark on national awareness campaigns to promote the efficient and sustainable use of energy in Namibia.promote the use of energy-efficient appliances and the construction of thermally efficient buildings in households.encourage the application of building technologies and practices enhancing energy efficiency and conservation in government, industrial and commercial buildings.promote the application of energy efficiency and conservation measures in industry.promote fuel saving measures in the transport sector.establish an institutional base to manage a programme on energy efficiency and energy conservation.

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d eThe Demand-Side-Management Studies identified the following activities in the electricity sector

Launching a consumer education and awareness campaign

Introducing time-of-use electricity tariffs

Dissemination of Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFLs)

Replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters

Expanding ripple control measures

Conducting energy audits in the industrial and commercial sector.

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d ePriorities of the Efficiency Strategic Action Plan ….

Implementation of the DSM measures identified in the ECB Study;Establishment of an energy efficiency accord and binding EE targets with big energy consumers (industry) as is the case in South Africa;Capacity building through regular energy management training;Compulsory energy audits in public buildings;Making fiscal and non-monetary incentives the preferred tools in achieving the desired energy efficiency;All encompassing energy planning initiative by motivating all local, regional and national authorities to incorporate EE activities into their strategic integrated resource plans;Establish an on-going monitoring and evaluation program.

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d e… and their recommendations

Focus on corporate senior leadership for training on energy efficiency in order to establish energy management standards;Provide fora to share best practices across firms in the industrial sector;Support the establishment of energy service companies (ESCOs) for all sectors;Government should explore and promote CDM opportunities through energy efficiency;Government should establish energy efficient agents in key ministries;Government should include energy efficiency in budgeting and policy drafting within line ministries and local authorities;Government should ensure there is measuring, verification and monitoring of energy efficiency activities.

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d eThe National Energy Efficiency Programme was designed to achieve the following outcomes

Improved access to EE finance by the expansion of capacity in financial institutions;

EE improvements in Namibia’s main energy-intensive industries;

Increased institutional capacity and awareness and information on EE;

Improved policy and regulatory framework for EE investments;

Monitoring, feedback, adaptive learning and evaluation.

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d eAgenda





Conclusions

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d e???????

There are many ideas, many studies with many useful recommendations for improving energy efficiency

butlike in other countries, the realisation of all this is far behind the knowledge what should and what can be done.

However:Namibia is a huge country by land area with only a small

population, and it is a poor country with huge discrepancy between the city and the rural zones and between the many poors and the few rich people.

So there are many problems to be solved and this will influence the priorities of political activities

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energy policies for developing countries: the case of namibia · ¾area: 824292 km2; more...

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