Energy Planning as an Instrument of Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions and

Policy Measures on Climate Change Mitigation

Irina Voitekhovitch

PhD, Joint Institute of Nuclear and Power Research ‘Sosny’, Minsk, Belarus

23rd Ph.D. Workshop on International Climate Policy 20 - 21 October 2011 MALTA

Research Target Setting

Ratification of UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol

New (stricter!) commitments for Kyoto-2

Adaptation and mitigation targets

Country strategy on GHG emission reduction

Commitments on GHG reduction -8% for 2008-2012 as against 1990

Belarus – country with economy in transition

Stable annual GDP growth 8-10%

Replacement of gas (roughly 85% of energy balance) by peat, coal, mazut, nuclear

Increasing electricity consumption

Climate Change

Mitigation

Energy Security

Economic growth

Research aims to

1. investigate the existing energy models to analyze energy systems

2. develop a model of the fuel and energy complex of Belarus to

3. forecast greenhouse gas emissions in the medium and long term prospective (assess the environmental effects of any energy and climate strategy)

4. analyse the establishment of regional emission trading system to increase contribution in preventing climate change.

Models for analysis of energy systems

Description: BALANCE gives the possibility to find the balance between demand on different forms of energy and available energy resources and technologies

Special features: very user unfriendly

Advantages: price sensitivity, lag factor, premium multiplier, carbon tax modeling, CHP modeling, several types of fuel

E2M2s

EFDA‐TIMES AMIGA

EERA

EFOM

ENUSIM

ENPEP GTMax

ICARUS

LEAP

LIEF

MAED

MARKAL

MACRO

MESAP

MESSAGE

NEMS

NEMS

RETScreen

TIMES

WASP

Energy PLAN

ENPEP BALANCE

Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Natural Gas Oil-well gas LPG Refinery gas

Communal fuel Mazut Coal Peat, lignin

Firewood Other Petroleum coke

Structure of energy resources consumption, mln tce

99.800%

99.850%

99.900%

99.950%

100.000%

Heat Power Station Hydro Wind

Structure of electricity production

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Combined Heat and Power Stations

Boiler-houses

Heat Recovery Stations

Structure of heat energy production FEC characteristics - key GHG emitter – 64,4% (2008) - gas-coal, peat, mazut - accelerated pace of growth

FEC sub-sectors: - fuel - refinery - energy sector - communal and houses sector - agriculture - transport - industry

Mazut

OIL PROD

NG

A

Wind

Hydro

INDUSTRY

AGRICULTURE

TRANSPORT

Exist

Peat

Energy sector - conversion

Nuclear Coal

RESIDENTIAL

Mazut NG

Coal

Imported

electricity

Nuclear

Wind

Hydro

RESIDENTIAL

INDUSTRY AGRICULTURE

NuPS

CPP

Coal PS

CHP

Boilers

Wood&Peat

CHP

Boilers

HEAТ

TRANSPORT

ENERGY SECTOR

Total current capacity of energy

system – ca. 8000 MW

1. Condensing PP – 4000 MW ( Lukoml - 2400 MW, Bereza - 1060 MW, Minsk-5 - 330 MW)

2. Combined CHP - 3935 MW– Big (3555 MW), Middle (350 MW), Mini (16 MW), Block-Stations (185 MW), Wind (2 MW), Hydro (12 MW)

3. Boilers:

1. MinEnergy – 8500 MW

2. Big Boilers – 28 000 MW

3. Small Boilers gas – 6400 MW

4. Small Boilers peat – 3000 MW

Future - ?????

Considered scenarios

Scenario 1 – Construction of

nuclear power plant (NPP Scenario)

1 NPP Block – 1170 MW in 2018

2 NPP Block – 1170 MW in 2019

Scenario 2 – Construction of combined cycle plants (SGP Scenario)

NPP will not be built

2000 MW gas fired SGP to be put into operation by 2030

Scenario 3 – Intensive use of renewable energy sources (RES Scenario) NPP will not be built

1600 MW of SGP will be put into operation by 2030

1000 MW wind power park construction by 2025

500 MW Hydro PP construction by 2025

General assumptions Coal Power Plant 920 MW - operational in 2015

Minsk CPP-5 (320 MW) – additional SGP 400 MW in 2011 Lukoml (2400 MW) – additional SGP 400 MW in 2014 Bereza (1030 MW) – additional SGP 400 MW in 2015

Wind Power Plants 50 MW - by 2015 Hydro Power Plants 100 MW – by 2015

Electricity consumption growth - 42,5 bln. kWh in 2015; 47,1 bln. kWh in 2020 and with continuation of current growth rate by 2030 (roughly 2% per year)

Structure of electricity consumption will not be changed

Renunciation of imported electricity starts from 2015

Prognosis of GHG emissions in FEC

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

NPP SGP RES

mln tCO2eq

Prognosis of GHG emissions in Belarus

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

NPP SGP RES

Enhancing Efforts to Reduce GHG Emissions

• Using financial mechanisms for GHG emission reduction regional trading scheme:

– Belarus - Law on Climate Protection – Ukraine – 2010 draft law "On regulation of emissions of greenhouse gases’ that establishes a

market-based methods to reduce GHG emissions in the internal trading system – Russia – pilot ‘technological platform’ – Kazakhstan - intends to conclude bilateral agreements with other countries and international

organizations (e.g. Chicago Climate Exchange)

Best solution - voluntary trading scheme starting 2013, which contains

sufficient financial and nonfinancial incentives for the companies to participate.

For CIS conditions it would be wise to prepare and run the emission trading system in the pilot regions and / or sectors. These pilot initiatives should be considered as a polygon for testing approaches and training of professionals all over the country

Future climate treaty regional schemes

Directions of further research

• Implementation of carbon tax and reaction of energy system

• Most efficient actions on GHG reduction

• Low carbon strategy including different measures in supply, conversion and demand side technologies

• Regional ET scheme – price of CO2 reduced

Thank you for your attention!!!