energy market access: new market realities of the natural gas landscape the international economic...
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Energy Market Access: New Market Realities of the Natural Gas Landscape
The International Economic Forum of the Americas
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Current Energy Mix in Japan
Renewableetc.
Oil
LNG
Coal
Nuclear
Source : METI
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Different Pricing for Each Market
Source : METI
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Fuel Import Cost Heavily Impacts Japanese Economy
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Trade balanceCurrent account balance
Trade deficit (2013) 11.5 Trillion yen
( trillion yen )Changes in trade balance and current account balance
( trillion yen )
Source : METI
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LNG Supply/Demand Outlook (Japan)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 20300
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95mtpa
Existing Project(Extension or not)
New Project(Contracted)
Existing Project(Contracted)
Demand
Supply
Source : Mitsui’s Estimate
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LNG Supply/Demand Outlook ( Worldwide )
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
WoodMackenzie(参考 )
Operational
Under Construction
Possible
Firm
Potential
WM demand estimate( Reference )
( mtpa )
Source : Wood Mackenzie
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Major global gas trade flows in future
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2012
Canada
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Canadian LNG – Expectations and Advantage
6,200km
14,800km
Voyage to Japan
Sakhalin 3 days
Alaska 9 days
NWS (Australia) 10 days
Western Canada 10 days
Qatar 14 days
Mozambique 20 days
US Gulf Coast 26 days
< Expectations from potential Japanese buyers >
Price Competitiveness
Flexibility of pricing formula
Diversification of LNG supply source
< Advantages >
Significant gas reserves
Strong governmental support
Proximity to Japan
Free from Panama Canal passage
e.g. ) Pricing Formula / US Sabine Pass & Corpus Christi
LNG Price (US$/mmbtu) 115% of Henry Hub + FF
Fixed Fee (FF) (US$/mmbtu) 2.25 - 3.50
Contract Term 20 years
Canada
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Mitsui’s Oil and Gas Business - Gas Value Chain -
Exploration& Production
Liquefaction TransportationLNG
Receiving Terminal
DistributionPower Generation
&Gas Chemical
■ Sakhalin-II/Russia■ ADGAS/Abu-Dabi■ Qatargas1&3/Qatar■ Oman & Qalhat LNG
/Oman■ NWS/Australia■ Equatorial Guinea■ Tangguh/Indonesia
■ Equity Investment Project (or tanker owned by Mitsui) ● EPC/finance
Blocks in■ Australia■ New Zealand■ Thailand■ Cambodia■ Vietnam■ Indonesia■ Oman■ UAE■ Qatar■ Russia■ Libya■ Mozambique■ Poland■ USA (Shale) ■ Canada■ UK■ Italy, etc
■ Qatargas/1 vessel■ RasgasⅡ Ⅲ ・ /9 vessels■ Snohvit/2 vessels■ CPC/4 vessels■ Angola LNG /4 vessels■ Kyushu Electric Power /1 vessel■ Spot LNG fleet /4 vessels (total 25 vessels)
■ MT Falcon,Valladolid/ Mexico■ Saltend/UK■ Eco Electrica/Puerto Rico■ Ontario/Canada
■Malhas PL/Brazil● Blue Stream/Russia● Cabiunas/Brazil■Mitsui Gas (LDC)/ Brazil
■ Manzanillo/Mexico■ Montoir/France (Capacity Usage)
■ International Methanol Company/Saudi Arabia
■ Celanese Methanol / USA■ Kaltim Pasifik Amoniak/ Indonesia
Gas Power Generation
Gas Chemical