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Petroleum Production Engineering PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES Energy Geopolitics Michael J. Economides ©2009

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Page 1: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Petroleum Production Engineering PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy

Geopolitics

Michael J.

Economides

©2009

Page 2: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

The Continuous Energy Crisis

of the 21st Century

Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40…

headlines rule … “crisis”

OPEC has little excess capacity “behind

the valve”, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq

IEA (Nov. 2008) 9.1% decline in oil production

China still grows in economy and energy

Saudi Arabia world regulator

Less than $40 to $100 by end 2009

Page 3: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Natural Gas

International demand destruction is

larger than was anticipated

Because of LNG developments in Qatar,

Egypt and Sakhalin 2, there could be 10

Bcf/d excess supply. Considerable

impact on gas prices in Europe and the

United States – Cheniere LNG

$4 gas for two to three years?

Devastating impact on US shale gas

Page 4: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Oil Demand and Price

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

0

50

100

150

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

US

Oil C

on

su

mp

tio

n,

MM

bp

d

Cru

de

Oil P

ric

e, U

SD

Page 5: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 6: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 7: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

80 90 00 10 20 30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

80 90 00 10 20 30

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

80 90 00 10 20 30

1.71.7

1.41.4

2.22.2

1.51.5

1.21.2

0.80.8

2.12.1 9.59.5

1.51.5

2.72.7

2.22.2

1.01.0

1.51.5

5.95.9

2.22.2

Total Energy Other Energy Wind & Solar

HydroHydro

NuclearNuclear

Biomass,

MSW

Biomass,

MSW

Wind & Solar

OilOil

GasGas

CoalCoal

OtherOther

Growth Rate2003-2030, %

SolarSolar

Wind

MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE

Growth Rate1980-2003, %

1.6 1.7

11.111.1

Oil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy Sources

Page 8: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Obama Energy Radicalism

• Even the most radical environmentalists

would be more circumspect 10 years ago

• EPA (April 17, 2009) “greenhouse gases in

the atmosphere endanger the public health

of current and future generations.”

• Secretary Chu (April 4, 2009) “advanced

biofuels”, “conservation”, “white roofs”.

• Secretary Salazar (April 6, 2009) “wind

farms could replace 3,000 coal-fired plants.”

Page 9: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

What Congress and the

President need is a Calculator

• Cardinal mine in Kentucky (35th-largest in

the U.S., producing about 15,350 tons of

coal per day, 66,000 barrels of oil equivalent

• All solar panels and wind mills

– 76,000 barrels of oil equivalent

• The US total energy use

– 47,400,000 barrels of oil equivalent

– Solar and wind 0.2 to 0.4%» (Robert Bryce, 2009)

Page 10: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 11: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Let me make a prediction

• First do not choke on the

daringness

• By the end of Pres. Obama’s first

term

–The US will use more oil

–It will import a larger

percentage

Page 12: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

National Transportation

Energy Perspective

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Qu

ad

rill

ion

BT

U

Other

Conventional Hydroelectric Power

Nuclear Power

Coal

Natural Gas

Imported Oil

Oil Transportation

Oil Products

Imported Oil

Biofuels

Page 13: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

The New Energy Economy

• Wood (1800s)

• Coal

• Oil

• Natural Gas

• Hydrogen (envisioned)

Increasingly:

• Clean

• Energy intensive

• Technologically

sophisticated

• Distributed

Carbon

content:

High

Medium

Low

(Zero)

Page 14: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

````````

Page 15: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Golfing for Hydrogen

Page 16: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Bovine Brain Power > Mad Car Disease?

Page 17: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”
Page 18: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

The Ethanol Scam

Page 19: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Wind Power Exposed: Expensive,

Unreliable and Won’t Save Natural Gas

UK Ofgem: wind “grossly distorting the market”

29.7% of cost for 1.3% of electric supply

Load factor: 27.4%. Gas demand goes up

Page 20: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

There are no alternatives

to hydrocarbon energy

sources in the

foreseeable future

Page 21: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

What Climate Change?

• Three points:

– Highly politicized…. What to do about

it? Can anything be done? At what

cost?

– Confusion (at times deliberate) between

“global warming” and man-made effects

– Preposterous: “science all in”. My offer:

$10,000 for ONE peer-reviewed paper

showing causality between CO2 and

increased temperature. None exists

Page 22: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 23: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 24: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 25: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 26: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy

GeopoliticsThe Axis of Energy Militants

•Iran

•Venezuela

•Russia under Putin

•The quagmire that is Iraq

•China

Page 27: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 28: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 29: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 30: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Russia under Putin

•Bright spot in oil is gone

•Re-Sovietization

•Corruption

•Total control of press

•Investment climate has

cooled down

•Production is bound

to decline

Page 31: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 32: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Gazprom’s New Imperium

Page 33: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”
Page 34: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 35: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 36: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Georgia War

Page 37: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

China

Can

Keep the Lights On?

Page 38: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Page 39: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy: China’s Choke Point

Page 40: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

China and Russia

• Energy will be China’s choke point

• Has become recently very assertive, if not belligerent.

– Sudan, Nigeria

– Canada

– Venezuela

• China’s energy future passes through Russia….

Page 41: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Russia and China

Page 42: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Russia, China and Japan

Page 43: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

China will probably lead

Page 44: Energy Geopolitics - CIPA Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis”

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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