Consequences of Ecosystem Changes

How and what to Control?? Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop

Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment

The system approach links human activities and their consequences in closed loop

It is the minimum set of linked components – if any missing, the system is crippled

Each component depends on its causal upstream driver – and external environment

The causal loop can be used as an organizing principle for sustainability analysis

Analysis Framework III – Causality LoopEconomic Development with Due Care of the

Environment

Health-Welfare

Energy-Environment

Socio-Economic

Causality: Linear System Model

Trend of Indicators

SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu

1960s

1980s

1990s

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

GDP(Mill$)/PersonEnergy(Bbtu)/GDP(Mill$)SOx/Energy(Bbtu)PopulationSOX Emiss

Population - Energy/Goods Consumption– Materials Flow - Emissions

Ek = cjk EMj = bij cjk GEi = ai bij cjk P

Industr. Energy

Transp. Energy

ResCom.Engy

Coal

Oil

GasElectric Energy

SOx

NOx

HC

PM

Goods &Energy,(GE) i Fuels&Mater.(FM), j Emission (EM), k

Ind. Chemicals

Industr. Goods

Pop., P

Metals

Mercury

ai

Consump./Person

bij

Fuels/Energy

cjk

Emission/Fuel-

j ji i i j

Consumption of Goods and Energy: GE = ai P

Fuels and Materials Flow: FM = ai bij P

Emission of Pollutants: EM = ai bij cjk P

Industrial Prod.

Transportation

ResComercial

EconMeasure(EM)

Coal Production and S Content

Coal Sulfur Flow in 1980 and 1998

• In 1980, a major flow of sulfur in coal originated in Illinois and was transported to Florida

Arrows indicate the flow of coal from the mines to the consumer

• By 1990, the transport of high sulfur coal from the Midwest has bee replaced by low sulfur western coal

Pollutant Transfer by Fuels and Minerals:Spatial Transfer Matrices

Carbon Emission Drivers for TransportationEnv 449 - 2007

Carbon Emission Trends - Passenger Transportation 1960-2003

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Per

cent

Cha

nge

Carbon Emission Drivers for Cars

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Population, 1990 N Car PMT/Person, 1990 NCar VMT/Car PMT, 1990 N Fuel/VMT, 1990NTotal Carbon Emission 1990N

Carbon Emission Drivers for Housing

Close-Loop Frameworks

Three Frameworks:

– Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science)– Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance)– Causality Loop (Social-Material Science)

Main Challenges:- Balancing Loops

- Network Effects in Causality

- Integrating Socio-economic, Physico-chemical, Health-Welfare