energy efficiency in transport: successes and failures ... · a large potential of growth source:...

Energy efficiency in transport: successes and failures

14th April 2015

Carine Sebi and Bruno Lapillonne, Enerdata

About Enerdata: a global energy intelligence company

2

Independent research company since 1991

International team of experienced analysts & economists in

– Global energy market analysis & modelling

– Energy efficiency & demand

Leveraging globally recognized databases & forecasting models

Headquartered in the Grenoble (French Alps) with offices in Paris and Singapore

NREL webinar-Sebi & Lapillonne-14th April 2015

Source of information

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The materials gathered for the webinar relies on various projects coordinated by ADEME dealing with energy efficiency indicators and policy evaluation:

– The European ODYSSEE/MURE energy efficiency project;

– The World Energy Council (WEC) project on energy efficiency with a report and two data bases: WEC Indicators database and Policies & Measures database;

– The G20 project of IPEEC including also a data base on indicators and one on policy (G20 policy database);

– A review of EE Policies in Europe (EnR brochure).

Most of these projects include all sectors and not only transport.


http://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/energy-efficiency-database.html

http://www.worldenergy.org/data/efficiency-indicators/





http://www.worldenergy.org/data/energy-efficiency-policies-and-measures/






http://g20-energy-efficiency.enerdata.net/



http://g20-energy-efficiency.enerdata.net/policies/






http://www.enr-network.org/enr-brochure-on-energy-efficiency-policies-in-europe.html







NREL webinar-Sebi & Lapillonne-14th April 2015 4

A-Main energy efficiency trends

Transport :~ ¼ of G20 energy consumption

NREL webinar-Sebi & Lapillonne-14th April 2015 5 Source: Enerdata

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Share of transport in final energy consumption in G20

But there exists strong discrepancies as to the importance of the sector: • Increasing in non-OECD countries, with a low share in some emerging countries

(China or India) (below 15%) • Decreasing in some EU countries (like Germany and Italy) and in Japan or Korea • High and increasing share in Brazil, Australia, USA and Mexico (above 35%)

A large potential of growth

NREL webinar-Sebi & Lapillonne-14th April 2015 6 Source: Enerdata

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Transport energy consumption per capita

Large disparities in transport consumption per capita among G20 implying a large potential of growth in non-OECD countries, from 0.2 to almost 2 toe/cap. Increasing trends in transport consumption in non-OECD countries led by higher ownership of cars and increased traffic (> 5%/year in Asia); Decreasing trends in EU countries, Japan, USA , partly thanks to energy efficiency improvements

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Transport consumption trend over 2000-2013

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road rail domestic air water

~ 90% of total consumption in G-20. Rail transport is quite important in Russia (12%), China and India (6% each).

Energy consumption by transport mode


Road is predominant in all countries

Source: Enerdata

- In most countries (except Mexico, Brazil and Indonesia), economic growth requires less and less energy consumption in transport transport intensity is decreasing - Different level of transport intensities: a factor at ppp 4 between India and Canada.

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Energy consumption Intensity GDP

Source: IEA, World Bank, Enerdata

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Energy consumption, intensity transport, GDP (G20) Transport intensity trends (2013 with 2000= 100)

Transport consumption is decoupled from economic growth


A strong relation with oil

9 Source: Enerdata *Electric, biofuel and nutural gas

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% transport in final oil consumption

Increasing share of transport in total oil consumption increasing influence (and dependence) of the sector on international oil market and price Despite a general progression of alternative fuels (biofuels and natural gas), the dependence of the sector on oil is still above 90% at G20 level. However there is a strong progression of these alternative fuels

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MexicoIndonesiaSouth Afr.JapanTurkeyAustraliaCanada UK India USA Korea G20 ChinaGermanyItaly RussiaFranceBrazilArgentina

electricity natural gas biofuel

% alternative fuels* in transport


B-Energy efficiency policies

and their impacts

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1. Energy efficiency policies 2. Energy efficiency improvements:

• Cars • Transports of goods

3. Modal shift

Large scope of policies needed: from energy efficiency policies to broader policies (transport, planning)

Energy

• Energy efficiency improvements/fuel shift • Measures to improve vehicle efficiency (MEPS, label, fiscal)

• Promotion of alternative fuels and motorisation (subsidies)

• Soft measures (behavioural, e.g. car pooling, ecodriving)

Transport

• Modal shift to more sustainable modes • Cars and truck to rail and water transport: needs large public

investment, unpopular taxes on fuel, vehicles

Planning

• Reducing transport demand • Spatial planning and other multi sectorial policies long

term implementation and impact

12 NREL webinar-Sebi & Lapillonne-14th April 2015

Regulations (e.g. labels and MEPS for cars) are largely dominant. Financial and fiscal measures represent each on average 20%. Are not included here fuel pricing and taxation: a prerequisite for the success of any energy efficiency policy in transport.

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Distribution of transport measures by type in selected G20 countries


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Regulation Fiscal Financial Voluntary agreements

Source: WEC survey 2012

Dominance of measures on energy efficiency improvements, especially regulations

14 Source: adapted from MURE data base http://www.muredatabase.org/

In EU countries, around half of measures targeted to increasing energy efficiency of cars

Around 15% of measures are targeting modal shift to public transport; Few measures for the transport of goods ;

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Car efficiency/emission

Efficiency of other modes

Modal shift for passenger

Driver behaviour

Modal shift for goods

Distribution of energy efficiency measures in transport in EU countries

http://www.muredatabase.org/

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1.Energy efficiency policies 2. Energy efficiency improvements:


3. Modal shift

Measures aiming at improving energy efficiency of cars

A combination of measures increasingly conceived as packages

Labelling: i.e. information on energy efficiency/CO2 emissions of new vehicles; comparative/absolute labels with band (e.g. A, B) and/or values, spreading in larger number of countries around the world

MEPS (Minimum Energy Performance standards) or CO2 emissions limits to ban inefficient vehicles.

Subsidies for alternative motors (mainly hybrid and electric vehicles)


Regulations on labeling or efficiency/CO2 standards are the dominant measures followed by fiscal measures (tax).

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Number of measures on cars by type in selected G20

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Predominance of MEPS & labels

Source WEC-ADEME survey 2012 http://www.wec-policies.enerdata.eu/

http://www.wec-policies.enerdata.eu/



Example of energy labels for cars

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Australia

Canada

China Korea EU Brasil

Increasing awareness about vehicle energy performance and allowing comparison across models

New developments of cars regulations

Energy/CO2 labelling o Extension to vans (e.g. Denmark and planned in France)

o Extension to used cars (e.g. voluntary in UK, Finland)

o Extension to car components (e.g. tyre in EU from 2012)

o Labelling in monetary unit (e.g. UK, New Zealand)

Other regulations: o Extension of MEPS to other vehicles than cars (e.g. vans in EU from

2017 or heavy duty vehicles in Canada, China, Japan and USA)

o Mandatory gear shift indicators, tyre pressure monitoring-TPMS (e.g. EU, USA, Korea, Russia in 2016)

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Energy


Financial and fiscal incentives boost the car market

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Fiscal incentives have become frequent after 2000 to promote purchase of efficient cars and discourage acquisition of cars with low fuel efficiency:

– Higher tax for the purchase of fuel-inefficient vehicles applied at purchase in many countries ;

– Combined tax and subsidy scheme (“bonus/malus” in France) : significant impact of the measure in 2008 and 2012

– Most EU countries applies a reduction of annual registration tax based on CO2 emission of the car

– Registration tax exemption applied for electric cars during 5 years in Italy

– New cars with extra emission over 120gCO2/km are taxed at a rate of US$9 per extra g/km (South Africa, since 2010)

Many countries have implemented subsidy scheme for electric and hybrid cars or even efficient cars (Japan, China, UK)

Scrappage schemes (grants offered to owners of old cars that buy new efficient ones) also accelerate efficient car market but only temporally


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Effect of Bonus Malus program - Evolution of CO2 emissions (in gCO2/km) of the new cars between 2003 – 2013

Source: MEDDE


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1995 2000 2011 2015 2020 2025

There is a rapid decrease of the specific consumption of new cars in most G20 countries due to efficiency/emission standards for new cars, as well as tax incentives. This trend will continue in the next decade given the existing and planned standards.

Specific consumption of new cars

Source: ODYSSEE, EU Commission, IEA; targets from ICCT global vehicle standards 2014

Positive impact of standards and incentives on new cars…

NREL webinar-Sebi & Lapillonne-14th April 2015 15 km/l= 35 mpg = 6.7 l/100 km

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…And on the car stock: decrease of the average specific consumption of the car stock (l/100km)

Average specific consumption of cars

NREL webinar-Sebi & Lapillonne-14th April 2015 Source: Enerdata

15 km/l= 35 mpg = 6.7 l/100 km

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Obvious negative correlation between energy prices and average consumption per car: higher fuel prices imply more energy efficient cars and lower distance travelled per car. In EU has significantly higher prices than in other countries and the lowest energy consumption per car.

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In addition to regulation and taxes on vehicles, the energy consumption of cars is also driven by prices

Energy consumption per car and fuel prices (2010)

Source: Enerdata

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3. Modal shift

Regulation aiming at improving energy efficiency of transport companies

Mandatory energy managers, audits, energy saving plan

Mandatory eco-driving training, awareness campaign (USA, Canada, Japan, Korea, Germany, France and UK)

Energy efficiency obligations for oil companies (e.g. France)

Voluntary agreements with transport companies: programs towards optimisation of supply chains and carry-more approaches (France charter “Target CO2 Carrier undertake”, 2008)

Tolls for trucks function of the efficiency /emissions of vehicles (e.g. Germany, Switzerland, Latvia or Poland)

Increasing fleet efficiency by increasing the authorized capacity and size of trucks and optimised routing-USA, Canada and Australia have (which are more than 25 meters and carry 60 tons at a time)


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Unit consumption of road freight per ton kilometer

There is decreasing trends in unit consumption of road freight in most countries: freight

transport by road is becoming more efficient thanks to more efficient vehicles and a better

vehicle fleet management (increased load factors). There has been recently a reverse trend

in some EU countries such as UK and Italy or in USA since 2007 because of the economic

recession.

NREL webinar-Sebi & Lapillonne-14th April 2015 Source: Enerdata

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3. Modal shift

Modal shift to more efficient modes

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Many countries aim at shifting part of the passenger traffic from cars to public transport, such as development of urban rail transport (metro, tram, etc.), rapid bus systems, or high speed trains.

They also implement measures to shift part of the freight traffic from trucks to rail and water transport through the development of infrastructures for combined rail/road or water/road transport (e.g. Germany, France, Italy) but there exist strong barriers not allowing this change to happen easily.


Measures to promote modal shift?

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Limit the use of cars and/or private car ownership:

o Limit cars use (e.g. fees to enter the city center (e.g. London); disincentives to cars (e.g. restricting parking, bus lanes, parking charges);

o Incentives to car pooling and car sharing (still limited but encouraging impact)

o Limiting car ownership (e.g. in in Beijing city in China with the License Plate Lottery System of very high tax in Denmark)

Incentives to water and rail transport for the transport of goods:

o Toll system for trucks (tax on per km driven) (e.g. Germany, Switzerland, Latvia or Poland);

o Incentives to companies to use railways instead of road (eg Australia);

Expansion/improvement of rail network ( e.g. development of high speed trains to substitute air transport); however some countries still have limited railway transportation given their size (Brazil, Australia).


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Turkey USA Australia Canada India UK Germany France Italy China Japan Korea Russia

Rail Bus

Share of public transport (rail+bus) in total passenger traffic

Source: Enerdata, No data available for Bus transport for China,India and Turkey

Limited impact so far of modal shift for passengers : positive trend in Italy, France, Japan, Canada or UK but still the share of public transport remains low.

However, decreasing share of public transport in passenger traffic in most countries.

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As for passenger traffic there is a decreasing share of rail and water traffic in most countries

The traffic of goods by rail or water transport represent more than 60% of total freight traffic in Russia, Korea, Canada, USA and Australia: this is due to the size of the countries and the nature of goods (e.g. coal in Russia, India or China).

Share of rail and water in freight transport

Source: Enerdata NREL webinar-Sebi & Lapillonne-14th April 2015


Conclusions

Successes and failures

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Successes Failures

Decreasing energy consumption trend in most OECD explained by energy efficiency, lower distance travelled and lower activity.

Increasing trend in non-OECD fueled by the economic growth , in particular the increase in car ownership

The penetration of alternative fuels to oil is increasing

Still a strong relation to oil in transport consumption; electrification of transport is still a myth (less than 2% in 2012)

Strong and regular progression of cars’ efficiency (as a result of regulations and taxes)

Less progress for other vehicles

Measures have mainly focused on improving the efficiency vehicles.

Reducing the share of road transport is still far ahead for both passenger and freight: it is only visible in a few countries. Few measures for reducing demand transport.


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total goods passengers

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consumption variation activity modal shift energy savings

Air transport included Source : ODYSSEE

Decreasing consumption of transport since 2007 by more than 30 Mtoe at EU level

Around 40% of that reduction is due to the economic recession, with a decrease in freight traffic and the stability of passenger traffic, and almost 60% to energy savings, mostly for passenger cars.

Almost no efficiency improvements for road freight transport since 2007, because of the reduction in traffic and the increase in empty running.

60% of the decreasing consumption in EU countries due to energy efficiency ?

Decomposition of energy consumption variation of transport: EU (2007-2012)

Thank you for your attention !

www.enerdata.net

Contact:

Carine Sebi

[email protected]

Bruno Lapillonne

[email protected]

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Cars represent around half of transport consumption in OECD countries;

In most OECD countries (except Canada), the energy consumption of cars is decreasing despite the increase in the number of cars (demography and equipment effect)

Such a trend is driven by energy efficiency and a decrease in the annual distance travelled.

Evolution of cars’ energy consumption (2000-2011)

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efficiency distance effect

Equipment rate Demography

Decomposition of cars’ energy consumption variation (2000-2011)

How to explain the decrease in the energy consumption of cars

Source: Enerdata

energy efficiency in transport: successes and failures ... · a large potential of growth source:...

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