Maria van der Hoeven

IEA Executive Director

16 October 2013

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IEA fuel market reports

© OECD/IEA 2013 

Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going unrealisedgoing unrealised  

Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the WEO 2012 New Policies Scenario

80%

100% Unrealised energyefficiency potential

R li d

40%

60%

Realised energyefficiency potential

20%

40%

Industry Transport Powergeneration

Buildings

Two thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency

© OECD/IEA 2013 

Two‐thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035

USD300Bn global EE market in 2011

Comparable to RE and fossil power generation investments

BUT, investments in energy efficiency are still less than two‐thirds of the level of fossil fuel subsidies

600

700

bill

ion

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US

D b

EE stands alongside supply resources

300

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Estimated range of

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200range of USD 147 to 300 billion

© OECD/IEA 2013 

0Upstream oil

and gas *Coal, oil and gas electricity generation ***

Renewable electricity

generation **

Energy efficiency

Renewable energy

subsidies *

Fossil fuel subsidies *

IEA’s first fuel? • Between 1974 and 2010, energy efficiency was the largest energy 

resource 

• Cumulative avoided energy consumption due to energy efficiency in these IEA countries amounted to over 1 350 EJ (32 billion toe)

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Mto

eEJ Hypothetical energy use had there been no energy efficiency

improvements Avoided energy equal to 65% of 2010 TFC

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Total final

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C l Oil G

Total final Consumption (TFC)

© OECD/IEA 2013 Long‐term improvements in energy efficiency in 11 IEA countries

Coal Oil GasElectricity Other Avoided energy useTFC

In 2010 energy efficiency was the largest resource Energy efficiency contributed 63 exajoules (EJ) (1400 Mtoe) of 

avoided energy use in 2010 larger than the supply of oil (43 EJ), electricity or natural gas (22 EJ each) 

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eEJ

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Oil Electricity Gas Coal Other Avoided

© OECD/IEA 2013 

Oil Electricity Gas Coal Other Avoided energy use

Contribution of energy efficiency compared to other energy resources consumed in 2010 in 11 IEA countries

Energy efficiency has been the key factor restraining energy growth Final energy use increased by 0.5%/year between 1990 and 2010

Efficiency effect is larger than the effect of structural changes in 

g gy g

restraining energy growth

3%

ange

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2%

age

annu

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1%

0%Aver

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-2%

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1990-2000 2000-10 1990-2010

© OECD/IEA 2013 

Changes in TFC, decomposed into structure, activity and efficiency effects for 15 IEA countries

TFC Activity effect Structure effect Efficiency effect

For 4 out of 15 countries energy efficiency was the dominant factor reducing energy intensity

Overall, just over half (54%) of the average annual reduction in intensity was due to improved efficiency. 

g gy y

46% of the reduction was due to changes in economic structure. 

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erag

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nual

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-2.5%

-2.0%Ave

© OECD/IEA 2013 

Changes in aggregate intensities of 15 IEA countries, decomposed into structure and efficiency effects, 1990‐2010

Efficiency effect Structure effect

Country case studies

Markets have distinctive characteristics related to country‐specific socio‐economic conditions and resource endowments.

Information provision and regulation have played a leading role in stimulating the energy efficiency market standards and labelling

providing access to energy assessments and financing

energy efficiency obligations placed on energy suppliers

Utility and energy service company (ESCO) schemes have also driven growth, especially among large energy users.

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Technology focus: the digital era is defining future appliance EE markets  Appliances are increasingly becoming network‐connected

26 14930,000

ons

pp

10% f ll

14,597

19,942

26,149

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20,000

25,000U

SD m

illio 10% of all

products will be ‘smart’ within 6 years

509 9842,150

3,7726,266

9,773

5,000

10,000

15,000 years

Smart appliance global market value 

40 509 9840

Network‐connectivity and information communication technology can enable energy efficiency BUT they are also rapidly driving up energy demand 

k db ld b h/ if d ’

© OECD/IEA 2013 

Network standby could be 550TWh/yr if we don’t act

Standards (Energy Star, Top Runner) are key

Japan: a Top Runner in Energy Efficiency  

Products Target year Additional cost * (JPY billion)

Direct benefit **(JPY billion)

Avoided energy demand

Lighting 2005 3.4 38.1 14 040 GWh (1.2 Mtoe)

Refrigerator 2004 19.0 80.7 29 749 GWh (2.6 Mtoe)

Gasoline vehicle (1st regulation) 2010 41.5 107.6 7 654 ML

(6 6 Mtoe)regulation) (6.6 Mtoe)

Video tape recorder 2003 3.5 8.8 3 241 GWh (0.28 Mtoe)

Air conditioner 2004 29.1 63.7 23 483 GWh (2 Mtoe)

Electric rice-cooker 2008 2.1 2.4 888 GWh (0.08 Mtoe)

Gasoline vehicle (2nd2015 60 7 65 4 4 436 MLGaso e e c e (

regulation) 2015 60.7 65.4 36(3.9 Mtoe)

Warming toilet seat 2006 5.5 6.0 2 210 GWh (0.19 Mtoe)

Television 2003 28.1 23.9 8 819 GWh (0.76 Mtoe)

Personal computer 2005 48.0 17.9 6 611 GWh (0.57 Mtoe)

588 GWh

Expected to deliver USD 3 bn in consumer benefits for lighting, vehicles and appliances

Microwave 2008 5.1 1.5 588 GWh(0.05 Mtoe)

Totals - 246.0 416.0 -

vehicles and appliances

Broaden scope to cover three‐phase induction motors, LEDs, heat pumps and printers in 2015.

What is the energy efficiency spillover to international markets

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What is the energy efficiency spillover to international markets from Top Runner’s stimulation of efficient technologies?

Korea: accelerating high‐efficiency appliances

Korean ESCOs reached USD 330 million in 2011, an increase of 63% from 2010. ESCO’s avoided 1.3 Mtoe in increase of 63% from 0 0. SCO s avoided .3 Mtoe in2011. 

The total number of high‐efficiency products is i i f i Kincreasing very fast in Korea.

Fuel‐efficient vehicles are accelerating rapidly in Korea from 30% to 100% compliance with 17 km/l by 2015.from 30% to 100% compliance with 17 km/l by 2015.

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1

Prospects – looking forward   

Energy efficiency markets are expected to grow in the medium term:medium term:

Significant growth expected in private investment enabled by government policy rather than direct public investment. 

End‐use energy price is also a key driver, 

but analysis is limited by data availability and relatively greater uncertainties in projecting future i i d

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pricing trends. 

A big market with bigger potential

USD 300 billion market

Already delivers substantial reduction

Recent growth driven by policy and high energy prices

Bright national policy prospects

Significant impact on the global economy

Huge growth potential

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Thank You

© OECD/IEA 2013  © OECD/IEA 2013 – Photo credit: © thermalcities.com