Energy Efficiency and The Grid of The Future

Iowa Association of Energy Efficiency – 2019 Summit

November 7, 2019

Energy Efficiency and the Grid of the Future

U.S Green Building Council

1.0

Learning Objectives

3

01 Understand how renewable generation at the grid level is reducing emissions

02 Describe how grid-scale generation sources impact energy efficiency

03 Compare the value of building-level technologies as grid-scale emissions change

04 Convey how we can impact building today for grid of the future

Future Generation

4

Renewable energy

▪ Wind

▪ Solar

Battery Storage

Reduced fuel costs

Reduced carbon emissions

California Duck Curve Projection

5

California Duck Curve – Actual vs Projected

6

What About the Midwest- Do We Have a Duck Problem?

7

NO NO

Smiling Gator of the Upper Midwest

8

▪ Energy markets will need to adapt to zero/low marginal costs at times

▪ Lowest system cost may mean “overbuilding” wind

▪ Different grids will have different profiles

Midwest Energy Demand and Production

9

Midcontinent Independent System Operation, Inc. (MISO) electricity overview (demand, forecast demand, net generation, and total interchange) 10/22/2019 -10/29/2019, Central Time

Midwest Energy Demand and Production

10

Midcontinent Independent System Operation, Inc. (MISO) electricity generation by energy source 10/22/2019 -10/29/2019, Central Time

“Nothing is either good nor bad, but thinking costs and environmental

impacts make it so.”

11

- Hamlet

Shaping Load Profiles

12

Net Load Example

13

▪ Spinning reserve is expensive, you are paying for something you might need

▪ Some building loads may be able to be shifted

▪ Wind generation shifts may be less consistent than solar

Four Ways for Buildings to Respond to Generation

ShapeCaptures DR that reshapes customer load profiles through price response or on behavioral campaigns—“load-modifying DR”—with advance notice of months todays.

Shift

Represents DR that encourages the movement of energy consumption from times of high demand to times of day when there is a surplus of renewable generation. Shift could smooth net load ramps associated with daily patterns of solar energy generation.

Shed

Describes loads that can be curtailed to provide peak capacity and support the system in emergency or contingency events—at the statewide level, in local areas of high load, and on the distribution system, with a range in dispatch advance notice times.

Shimmy

Describes loads that can be curtailed to provide peak capacity and support the system in emergency or contingency events—at the statewide level, in local areas of high load, and on the distribution system, with a range in dispatch advance notice times.

Source: LBNL’s 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study

Building Load Curves – End Uses to Load Shapes

15

Energy Efficiency Impacts

16

Energy Efficiency Process

EnrollmentYou provide basic

information about your building through our EDA

Application

STEP 1

Preliminary AnalysisTogether we perform

real-time evaluation of energy-efficiency

improvements and bundle potential whole-

building strategies for further analysis

STEP 2

Final AnalysisYou determine which

bundle strategies best fit your project goals, from which projected energy

savings and utility incentives are determined

STEP 3

VerificationWe confirm your project was constructed to plan and issue a verification report for you and your

utility partner

STEP 4

IncentivesYour utility partner

provides incentives for the strategies

implemented in your project

STEP 5

Time Value of Energy Efficiency

▪ Economic value of DSM is changing due to decarbonizing system

▪ Loss of fuel savings

▪ Less environmental benefits

▪ Wanted to see if DSM could help shape the load

▪ DSM as grid resource

18

▪ Studied impacts on 10 projects

▪ Current marginal cost and carbon

▪ Future marginal cost and carbon

▪ Analyzed 20 potential strategies

Studied Measures

▪ Ice Storage for Chilled Water

▪ Ice Storage for Refrigeration

▪ Electric SWH Storage

▪ Pre-Cooling/Night Purge

▪ Pre-Heating

▪ Process Load Timing Shifts

▪ Battery Storage (Carbon)

▪ Battery Storage (Cost)

▪ Dynamic Glazing

▪ Standby Generators (Carbon)

▪ Standby Generators (Cost)

▪ Occupancy Pattern Shifts

▪ Lighting 20% dim at peak times

▪ Cooling Setpoint temperature Change

▪ Daylighting

▪ Reduced Overall LPD

▪ Lower SHGC Glazing

▪ Fan System Power Reduction

▪ Improved Cooling Efficiencies

▪ Increased WWR

▪ Replace Heating With Heat Pumps/VRF

▪ Replace Reheat Coils with Electric Resistance

19

Carbon and Cost Savings for Energy Efficiency Strategies, Current and Future

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Ice

Sto

rage

fo

r C

W

Ice

Sto

rage

fo

r R

efri

g

Elec

tric

SW

H S

tora

ge

Pre

-Co

olin

g/N

igh

t P

urg

e

Pre

-Hea

tin

g

Pro

cess

Lo

ad T

ime

Shif

ts

Bat

tery

Sto

rage

(C

arb

on

)

Bat

tery

Sto

rage

(C

ost

)

Dyn

amic

Gla

zin

g

Gen

erat

ors

(C

arb

on

)

Gen

erat

ors

(C

ost

)

Occ

up

ancy

Pat

tern

s

Pea

k lig

hti

ng

dim

min

g

Co

olin

g Se

tpo

int

Day

ligh

tin

g

Red

uce

d L

PD

Low

er S

HG

C G

lazi

ng

Fan

Sys

tem

Po

wer

Imp

rove

d C

oo

ling

EER

Incr

ease

d W

WR

HP

/VR

F h

eati

ng

Elec

tric

reh

eat

coils

Ave

rage

sav

ings

pe

rce

nta

ge

20

Current Cost Future Cost Current Carbon Future Carbon Site BTU

Hourly Profile with Ice Storage

Shaping Consumption to Match Renewable Generation

21

Potential Building Decarbonization Measures

22

Heat Pumps

▪ High efficiency air source heat pumps

▪ High efficiency ground coupled heat pumps

VRF Systems

▪ VRF system

Water Heating

▪ Heat pump water heater

Kitchen Equipment

▪ Electric fryer▪ Electric ovens▪ Electric griddle

Business Confidential - Willdan

Energy efficiency and carbon reductions for the future grid

Beyond Energy Efficiency

23

▪ Targeting energy efficiency for time and location of greatest impact

▪ Brooklyn Queens Demand Management Program

▪ Substantial redevelopment of Brooklyn and Queens driving increased load

▪ Targeted energy efficiency provided 5x more demand reduction per fixture

▪ Increased peak coincidence factor from 8% to 23%

Load Shaping

24

▪ EV Roadmaps and Business Plans

▪ Fleet Conversion Feasibility

▪ Integration with electrification + Smart City strategy + Microgrids

▪ Grid Impact Studies

▪ Load Growth Forecasting

▪ Traffic Studies

▪ GIS Mapping

▪ Fleet Assessment and Route Modeling

Electric Vehicles – Impact on the Grid

25

2030 Forecast

Looking into the future

26

▪ Planning and designing microgrids

▪ Solar PV

▪ Wind

▪ Cogeneration

▪ Fuel cells

▪ Microturbines

▪ Storage

▪ Islanding

Distributed Energy and Microgrids

27

ExampleCulver City microgrid: 1.7 MW PV, 800 kW/1,600 kWh Energy Storage and EE for net zero resilient microgrid

The Future

28

Are smart energy districts the future?

Bronzeville Smart Energy District

Off-grid streetlights (emerging technology)

Solar powered EV charging station

Hybrid DC/AC nanogridon the roof of IIT Gym

Commercial buildings of the future?

Commercial Grid Interactive Building

29

Closing Thoughts

▪ Building stock turns over slowlyabout 2% per year

▪ Shape and shift may require different mechanical systems, hard to retrofit

▪ Buildings could potentially take excess generation and reduce load during high net load times

▪ System peak kW and kWh based programs do not have enough nuance

30

Thank YouJason Steinbock, PE, BEMP, LEED APjsteinbock@willdan.com