energy cultures transport research overview
TRANSCRIPT
Dr Janet StephensonTalk for Transport Research Group
26 May 2014
The Energy Cultures team
Prof. Gerry Carrington physics/
engineering
Dr Paul Thorsnes
economics
Dr Janet Stephensonsociology/
human geography
Prof. Rob Lawson
consumer psychology
Prof. Barry Barton
law & policy
Dr John Williams
marketing
Dr Rebecca Ford
engineering
Dr Sara Walton
management
Dr David Rees
system dynamics
Dr Charles Sullivan
psychology; statistics
Dr Michelle Scottpsychology, HCI
Dr Debbie Hopkins
environmentalsociology
Dr Adam Doering
social science; transport
Alaric McCarthyEnvironmental
science
Dr Ben Wooliscroftmacro-marketing
Jane Khan, administrator
Energy Cultures research programme
Energy Cultures 1: 2009-2012
• Household space heating and water heating
• Energy efficiency
• Behaviour change
http://otago.ourarchive.ac.nz/handle/10523/3747 http://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/handle/10289/7563
The Legal Framework for Energy Efficiency in Road
Transport:A Critique of Legislation,
Regulation and Policy in NZ
Kimberley Jordan LLM
Energy Cultures 2: 2012-2016
Part A: Energy efficiency
MBIE RFP:
“Considering the current pattern of energy usage in New Zealand homes, small businesses and transport, where do the ‘highest impact’ opportunities lie for energy savings and how can these be cost-effectively leveraged?”
Part B: Future Transport
MBIE RFP:
“In transport, what is possible with new technologies and practices for energy efficiency and conservation and how can consumers be encouraged to adopt them and encourage markets to deliver them?”
Reference Panel
• MoT• NZTA• Treasury• EECA• MBIE• Mercury Energy• Z Energy• Automobile Association• Express Couriers• Beacon Pathways• Sustainable Cities
Transport-related workstreams:Current – some results1.1 Data mining1.2 Household survey1.3 Businesses & energy
2.2 Future transport – international & NZ perspectives2.5a Transition agents in transport in NZ – scoping study2.6 System dynamics modelling
Just starting or upcoming1.4 PEP software to support decisionmaking in transport choices2.1 Business interest in adopting efficient/low carbon transport2.3 Business opportunities in future transport 2.4 Law/policy reviews – electric vehicles; cycling ... so far2.5b Driver motivations for efficient driving – instrinsic v extrinsic motivators2.7 Youth mobility practices
1.1 Data mining
Dr John Williams Data sources
• Energy Data File
• Energy in NZ
• Energy Use survey (businesses)
• NZ Household Travel Survey
• MVR, WoF and Drivers' license databases
• IEA Scoreboard
• IEA Energy Statistics
Prof Gerry Carrington
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ro
ad e
ne
rgy/
resi
de
nti
al e
ne
rgy
(%
)
Data for 2011 from IEA Energy Statistics for OECD countries (2013 edn)
Road energy use as a percent of residential energy use
International Energy Agency, “IEA Scoreboard 2011”, IEA/OECD, Paris (2011)
Freight transportation: mode and energy use
• Energy used for freight transport (per tonne-km) increased by about 40% between 1990 and 2008
• In 2008, this was more than 60% higher than the average for 18 IEA nations
• NZ’s use of rail and water freight transport modes is much lower than the average for 18 IEA nations
Low-hanging fruit??
1.2 National household survey
Dr Ben Wooliscroft Partial results 700/2500
• Demographics
• House & appliances
• Energy behaviours
• Travel
• Attitudes
• Aspirations
• 143 questions!
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Driver efficiency
Transport opinions
• 78% - there should be less (or a lot less) trips to school by car
• 74% - there should be less (or a lot less) trips to work by car
• 50% - there should be less (or a lot less trips) to go shopping by car
• 51% agree (or strongly agree) that “the Government should prioritise people moving under their own power when making roadingdecisions”
Public transport
• 92% - traffic congestion is a fairly important/very important problem for them
• 42% never use public transport; a further 42% less than twice a month
• 51% report that public transport is available to go shopping• 27% report that public transport is available to go to school• 28% report that public transport is available to go to work
BUT … REALITY CHECKING!
1.3 Businesses & energy
Dr Sara Walton
Most important factors in decisions about energy sources:
Interim findings:
Interest in using biofuels
Comments:
• Supply
– “access to supply would be the main factor”
• Sourcing
– “depends how biofuels are sourced and from what they are derived”
• Suitability
– “not yet sure of the suitability for present day piston engines”
Fleet efficiency actions?
Interest in EVs
Comments:
• Cost– “the capital cost of the vehicle would need to be
comparable”
• Current technology– “the technology is fast improving, the economics and
availability looking increasingly attractive”
• Charge– “Where would I plug it in?”– “Electric vehicles may not have the range”
• Clean– “really like the clean idea”
2.2 Future transport –international & NZ perspectives
Dr Janet Stephenson
1. What is happening globally that might shape NZ’s future transport?
2. How NZ could respond to / take advantage of these opportunities?
Alaric McCarthy
Dr Debbie Hopkins
International & NZ Delphi studies
Delphi: an iterative, multi-stage process, bringing together expert opinions on complex topics• Build on each other• Check for consistency, agreement, quantiative
measures
International Delphi Panel (all but 3 international)Academia (n=18), industry (n=3), government (n=4), consultancy (n=3), NGO (n=1), other (n=1).
Fields of expertise included: renewable energy, transport policy, demand modelling, material technology, freight, transport economics, behaviour
Potential shocksLikelihood of occurring within 10 years
1 = low, 5 = highPo
ten
tial
to
tra
nsf
orm
th
e t
ran
spo
rt s
yste
m a
way
fro
m B
AU
in t
he
lon
g te
rm
23
4 51
1
2
4
5
D
F
H
G
J
I
K
High – High:A: Political instability in oil-rich countriesB: Breakthrough in cheap battery/storage technologiesC: Surge in public and political concern about climate change
High likelihood of occurring within 10 yrs:Low potential to transformD: Geopolitical interventions in oil-rich countriesE: Failure of Evs to be adopted as readily as expected
High potential to transformLow likelihood of occurring in 10 yrs:F: Global price on carbonG: Acute resource scarcityH: Significant global economic decline
E
Low - Low:I: Political instability in China and/or IndiaJ: Readily available oil sources foundK: Breakthrough in nuclear fusion
A
B
C
Change Trends
Likelihood of becoming widespread within 10 years
1 = low, 5 = highPo
ten
tial
to
tra
nsf
orm
th
e t
ran
spo
rt s
yste
m a
way
fro
m B
AU
in t
he
lon
g te
rm
23
4 51
1
2
4
5
G
J I
K
High – High:A : Increasing investment in public transportB: Uptake of travel substitution technologiesC: Increasing public environmental concernD: Uptake of efficient carsE: Uptake of electric vehiclesF: Uptake of active transport
High likelihood of becoming widespread Low potential to transformI: Decreasing youth car ownershipJ: Uptake of shared personal transportK: Decreasing youth car licensing
High potential to transformLow likelihood of becoming widespread:G: Uptake of autonomous vehiclesH: Substantial reduction in VKT
B
D
E AC
FH
Interim results for NZ Delphi - Round 144/118 so far; average 15 years experience
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Government
Independent researcher
Non governmental…
Academia
Industry
Other
Consultancy
Number of participants
Most influential trends that might lead to significant change in NZ’s transport system in
the next 20 years
1. Technological advancements (36%) (Intelligent
transport systems (ITS), vehicle safety technology, uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), improvement of battery technology, self-drive cars, travel substitution)
2. Rising fuel prices (34%)
3. Changing youth mobility (23%) (less likely to get
licences leading to less private-car travel)
Most influential innovations that might lead to significant change in NZ’s transport system in
the next 20 years
1. Smart cars (34%) (Cars communicating with other cars and
transport infrastructure; driver behaviour real-time monitoring and feedback; semi-autonomous vehicles; driverless vehicles)
2. IT developments (27%) (integrated travel platforms;
smart PT information systems; travel substitution; intelligent transport systems)
3. Electric vehicles (25%) (Greater use, affordability and
availability; advances in EV tech; range increase; induction charging within the next 5-10 years)
Most influential step changes that might lead to significant change in NZ’s transport system in
the next 20 years
1. Fossil fuel price/availability (52%) (Oil / gas
supply constraints; oil / gas price shocks)
2. Climate change (34%) (more urgency, being taken
more seriously, changing public opinion, changing policy)
Delphi Rounds 2-4
• Degrees of agreement; timeframes; impacts of transport sectors; relative influence
• Developing a cognitive map of influences
• Contrast with International Delphi findings
What are implications for NZ transport?
2.6 System dynamics modelling
Dr David Rees Dealing with complexity
• Concept mapping
• Drivers of change
• Feedback loops
• Unintended consequences
Cognitive mapping with causal loops –priority given to private vehicles
Material culture
Energy practices
Norms and aspirations
Have
Think Do
An Energy Cultures perspective
Material culture
PracticesNorms
Transport cultures ….
Transport Culture
Material culture
PracticesNorms
Transport Culture
Transport cultures ….
Changes in material culture…
Changes in practices…
Changes in norms…
New transport cultures?
2.5a Transport Transitions in NZ
Dr Rebecca Ford
Dr Adam Doering
85 case studies
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
More efficient engines
Alternative fuels
Appropriate vehicle choice
Driver behaviour
Carpooling
Car sharing
Journey Planning
Vehicle maintenance
Public transport
Active transport
More efficient vehicle design
Road infrastructure improvement
ICT Innovations
Raising awareness
Community visioning
No. of cases
Changing ‘transport cultures’
Changing ‘transport cultures’
http://energycultures.org
With many thanks to our funders...
Transport-related workstreams:Current – some results1.1 Data mining1.2 Household survey1.3 Businesses & energy
2.2 Future transport – international & NZ perspectives2.5a Transition agents in transport in NZ – scoping study2.6 System dynamics modelling
Just starting or upcoming1.4 PEP software to support decisionmaking in transport choices2.1 Business interest in adopting efficient/low carbon transport2.3 Business opportunities in future transport 2.4 Law/policy reviews – electric vehicles; cycling ... so far2.5b Driver motivations for efficient driving – instrinsic v extrinsic motivators2.7 Youth mobility practices