energy crisis and food security

8/6/2019 Energy Crisis and Food Security

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Energy Crisisani:t Food SecurityDevising a Social Collapse in Pakistan

By Farzana Shah

In modem history, due to various reasons, theeconomic power of any state defines her strength andsovereignty. The world powers are too sensitive abouttheir energy security and for the very same reason opteven for the most risky modus operandi like going towar in a country like Afghanistan in order to keep theenergy safeguard in place. Afghanistan is neither anenergy hub nor does it house any port for the export ofenergy resources of the region but its role is of aconduit and a very critical one. All the energycorridors pass through this country. The center ofgravity of the ongoing Great Game in the region is alsorelated to energy and energy corridors. The entirerestive scenario in the world involves major energy

battles as well. Afghanistan was ravaged by warbecause one major energy sector giant was notallowed to expand by the then Afghan government. Allmajor global players have been vying for the controlof the energy resources since decades now. This hasplayed a major role in their economic and militarydevelopment as well. Economic collapse was a majorcause for the Russian demise as she had no access tomajor energy corridors. Recently, the US has indulgedin a prolonged and costly war to secure the energyresources along with capturing all the corridors for thetransportation of these resources. The Energydepartment is the integral part of the US strategicplanning institutes.China is the second most strategically active player inthe energy arena. To secure her energy corridorsthrough the Indian Ocean, China is pursuing a longterm strategy of building naval ports and bases in theregion on the friendly countries I coastal lines. TheChinese energy needs would increase with the passageof time as its industrial complex is still expanding.Energy is the basic requirement for this giantmanufacturing house of Asia with a population of overone billion.India is among the growing economies of the worldand the third most active player in this game as well.The Indian long term economic policy is extremelyaggressive both at the regional and global axes;derived by a fanatical idea of becoming one of themajor global power players, she is competing with thedeveloping countries and the established economies


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of the region simultaneously. India has to provideenergy to her entire populace along with keeping itsindustrial growth on track. Therefore, she cannotafford to meet these massive demands throughimported energy. Feeding one billion people is anotherissue for India and being an agro-based country, waterrequirements are also on the rise with increase inpopulation.Regional Trends:As the geostrategic developments in this part of theworld are completely unpredictable so every regionalplayer is busy in planning to exploit the domesticenergy potential to its maximum. Importing foreignoil and gas is also among major trends to keep theeconomic growth momentum going. India and Chinaare major regional competitors in the energy sectorand both are leading the regional progress anddevelopment race as well. The only reason that theyare sustaining it is the consistent investment in theenergy infrastructure along with robust long termenergy policies. China has been sustaining a 10%growth rate since the last three decades which has

turned it into the world's third largest economy afterthe US and Japan.Hydro energy is the most economical means forgetting clean energy. India, China, Afghanistan andBangladesh are working ceaselessly to harness thisresource. The Chinese are leading the race of hydropower production as well. How aggressive theChinese are in their hydro energy ambitions can begauged by a simple fact that the total installed capacityof power generation is around 20,000 MW. Thisincludes both hydro and non-hydel means; in China,3-gorges dam alone has a capacity of producing22,500 MW. It is the world's largest hydro powerproject. China is also in the process of constructingother large hydro power plants. Six out of the world's20 largest hydro power plants are located in Chinaalready.India is also building hydro power plants on the everyriver in their country. Indian water and energy policiesdemonstrate how water and energy would play amajor role in the future geopolitical and geostrategicreshaping of the region. Apart from completing hydroprojects for her economic needs, Indians have come


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up with a vicious plan to use water as a strategicweapon against Pakistan by exploiting the IWT.Indian water aggression has far reaching strategicimplications for Pakistan. It has added a whole newdimension to an already tense and volatileenvironment of the region. Both the countries arealready at war with each other on the legal anddiplomatic axes over this issue. Keeping in view thepace of construction of the Indian hydro projects onPakistani rivers, it is evident that a physicalengagement isnot too far aswell on this matter.

But India is not the only factor in causing theprevailing water scarcity in Pakistan. Poor planning,non-visionary leadership and foreign meddling in thiscritical area have also played a decisive role inexacerbating the problem.

Pakistan and Energy &Water Security:For developing countries like China, India, Pakistanand Bangladesh it is difficult to fulfill their energyneeds through local resources due to various factorswhich include a whole range of issues from technicalchallenges to political preferences. But exceptPakistan, every other regional player is pursuing thepolicy in order to overcome these challenges. Thereare multiple factors hindering Pakistan fromharnessing its natural energy, water and food securitypotential. The major ones are: No energy security plan: It is the nadir ofPakistani policy makers that they seem stilloblivious of the fact that energy and water

security must be an essential part ofthe overallnational security plan. All the subsequentproblems in this area are the byproduct of thisgross policy failure. Absence of any urgency totake corrective measures is also a worrisomeaspect. This is an era of quiet wars fought onnon-military axis. Water, energy and foodhave emerged as the new dynamics of securitywhich need to be incorporated into anystrategic planning. Conventional wisdom ofwarfare is becoming extinct now andIslamabad will have to embrace newparadigms of national security and socialstability which revolve around these newsecurity dynamics. So far, this is a missing linkin Pakistan's long term security planning.

Poor planning & mismanagement:Pakistan's largest water reservoir andhydropower plant was built some 35 yearsago. Not a single high or even mediumcapacity hydropower plant has been builtsince then. Neither any new water reservoirwas built after Tarbela. Political interests werepreferred at the cost of Pakistani interests bythe political and military regimes inIslamabad. Pakistan has ample amount ofnatural resources to cater to national food,water and power security but absence of avisionary leadership is preventing theexploitation of these resources. It is a painfulfact that a country is importing rental powerhouses while having the potential to produce40,000 MW of the cheapest and cleanestelectricity by Indus alone. Not building anynew reservoir has devastated the food securityof the country as well. With an exponentiallyfast growing population, Pakistan has failed tokeep the land cultivation rate in sync with thenational requirement and the danger of foodscarcity is becoming quite conspicuous. Watersecurity situation is bleaker than the food andenergy crisis. The per capita water availabilityis touching an all time low and this periloustrend would continue unless Pakistan adoptssome radical watershed management policy.Water terrorism of India: India is makingsure that she gets absolute control overPakistani rivers by exploiting the IWTprovisions. Its strategy is to build small damsand reservoirs downstream to each other onthe same river while keeping their designparameters within the provisions of IWT sothat any Pakistani move to stop theconstruction of these dams can be prevented.India is going to have total and completecontrol over Pakistan's Western rivers in orderto create droughts or floods with the entireIndus basin as the target. The Indian policymakers have expressed their satisfaction overthis strategy to render Pakistan a barren land.Unfortunately, Islamabad is trying to gaugethe damage while India is busy in completingthe dams and reservoirs on Pakistani rivers.


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I IPI ROQf.e A ;s p er o rig in al p l an , th e 2~75-kih)metI ' ,e : (I,724 m i) pipe line w asto besupplied from t r u e Soufh .PaIS field,I . nwHl i start from Asalouyeh and stretch ever ]~IOOkilometers (680 mi)t .M( lugh Iran.! . ~n Pak i s t an , it w i llp a ss tM1 l .? ug bBa ln c hls ta n a n d sin dh .. In K huzdar, iI

b r an c h w! i JuLds pur -o f ft o Karachi, w hile tlle m ain p ip e lin e will continuetowards M l u t t ra u . F rom Multan . th e p ip eillh .lem a yb e e xp an de d to D e m h i .The latest Indian move is on Jhelum River,where India is vigorously building the Kishan-Ganga dam which on its completion wouldturn the whole Neelam valley of AJK into adesert and would severely degrade Pakistan'sNeelam-Jhelum project. Both previous andcurrent governments failed to check andprepare a proper response to this Indianproject. Previously, multiple dams were builton Chenab and now India is in a position tocontrol its flow towards Pakistan for days. ThePakistani governments have shamefully failedto respond to the Indian madness and now thewhole link canal system of Pakistan has beenendangered!

The Game:Pakistan is the gateway to Eurasia. The Gawadar portis the nearest trade and transfer hub for energyresources from the entire Eurasia to the rest of theworld. No trade or energy transfer is possible to andfrom the Indian Ocean bypassing Pakistan. This is theunique strength of Pakistan's geography but, at thesame time, this also serves as the most alluringstrategic attraction for all the major global players.Baluchistan is a critically sensitive province in thisrambling. The US war in Afghanistan is gearedtowards securing an energy trade corridor fromCentral Asia to the Arabian Sea. This makes Pakistan aprimary target for the US. Just like all other axes,Pakistan is under assault at the energy and water axesas well. The anti Pakistan elements have managed toseverely damage Pakistan's lifeline i.e. its economyand have consequently been trying to prevent it fromundertaking the following critical energyinfrastructure proj ects;1. To deprive Pakistan of making the hydro

electric dams, Kalabagh and Bhasha, bothcould generate Rs500 billion per year andassociated agriculture boost of Rs300 billionper year. The export boost-up due to the energyupsurge is translated into Rs850 billion interms of foreign exchange. Both dams can

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generate 10,000 MW which is more thanenough tomeet Pakistan's energy needs.2. The IPI pipeline is critical for the economic

sustenance of Pakistan. Having the world's 2ndlargest energy hub at our doorstep, Pakistancan import much cheaper energy than oil butthis project was delayed unnecessarily till Julythis year by a confused government inIslamabad. Iran has completed theconstruction on its side of the border years agobut it took Islamabad three years before thegovernment gave a final go ahead last monthfor this critical pipeline. Construction work isyet to commence.Initially, the statistics show that if we constructour part of the pipe line from the Iranian borderto Karachi, 22 billion cubic meter of gas peryear will be ready from the Iranian side whichcan save up to US$ 10 billion per year (Rs 850billion per year). But no progress has beenmade to build the gas pipe line. Pakistan's twogas distribution companies SNGPL and SSGCare fully capable to construct the cross countrypipe line immediately. That potential needs tobe exploited as Iran is planning to export thegas to China as well. The total annual savingsare around Rs2500 billion for the abovementioned three proj ects.

3 . The Thar coal can generate 10,000 MW up to30 years. This can be translated into Rs.500billion per year. But here too, the governmentis unwilling to release the funds required forthe pilot proj ect of coal gasification. Dr.Samar Mubarak Mand, the renowned nuclearscientist, had to come to the media to tell themasses that he will have to buy high pressurecompressors from the scrap markets of Lahoreand Karachi as the government is notreleasing the required funds for thesecompressors. There is a clear complicity onthe government's part in destroying thiscritical energy project.

4. Nuclear power is one of the best options wehave in order to cater to the future energyrequirements. Presently, Pakistan isgenerating 688 MW after the induction of 2nd

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power plant at Chashma nuclear energycomplex. Inweapons, 99% enrichment level isrequired where as for the nuclear fuels only 7-10% enrichment is sufficient for powergeneration. Pakistani scientists andtechnicians are well equipped to run nuclearpower plants. They have been managing theKarachi nuclear power plant since the lastmany years. Today, the world's top economieslike the US, China and Japan are heavilydependent on nuclear energy along withconventional resources. If we manage togenerate 10,000 MW the total economicimpact comes to Rs 1,000 billion per year. ButPakistan is faced with global duality andduplicity. India was given exclusive treatmentby relaxing international nuclear controlregimes to allow her to become the part ofinternational nuclear club whereas Pakistan isbeing pressed to cut its nuclear energyprojects, including those which have noconnection with military usage. The net effectof all the above mentioned projects is aroundRs4,000 billion per year. It is worthmentioning here that Iran, despite having theworld's 2nd largest gas reserves, is headingtowards establishing its nuclear power energy.


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Why is Pakistan not opting for nuclear powerdespite having sufficient human resource inthis regard?

s. On water, Pakistan is at war with India. TopIndian leadership has expressed their waterambitions vis-a-vis Pakistan more than once.Pakistani rivers flowing from Kashmir toPakistan are not the only target in this Indianfrenzy to block Pakistani waters. Now, Indianshave taken their war to the next level andaggressively working with the Afghangovernment to build 12 dams on Kabul Riveras well. This is an extremely alarmingdevelopment, more alarming is the reactionand response by Islamabad where planningdivision, foreign office and government has nostrategic plan to secure the Pakistani waters.

the 21 st century and interests of Pakistan andthe US are mutually exclusive and the USwould never prevent India from violatingIWT. Under these circumstances, there mustbe no foreign intervention of any kind inenergy infrastructure development proj ects.

Strategic Impact: Industry: It is already taking a major hit.Thousands of industrial units have been

shutdown in Punjab and Sindh. Small andmedium entrepreneurs are the largest victims.Medium scale industry contributes heavily innational GDP but in Pakistan it has beenaffected badly due to the prevailing energycrisis. Pakistan has failed in harnessing themassive HR pool as there are no jobs for them.

Agriculture: Pakistan is among countrieswith the lowest per acre yield of all importantcrops. All regional countries are performingbetter than Pakistan.

6 . The latest development in this massivestrategic game against Pakistan is the directforeign meddling into Pakistan's criticalenergy infrastructure. Americans are too keento "assist" Pakistan in the energy and waterissues. The US is a strategic partner ofIndia in Per capita Water: Pakistan was among themost prosperous countries with respect to


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For the Energy sector, IP gas pipeline is themost critical infrastructure project which mustbe executed without any further delay.Inclusion of China into this project would leadto more close co-operation on the regionallevel. This is a must do job to deter the USinfluence in the regional energy game.

water security when it came into being. Now, after 64 years, the situation has been reversed.Water scarcity is reaching fatal levels. Latestestimates about per capita water income arealso showing an alarming picture.

High cost / competitive disadvantage inglobal export market: Pakistani textile andother export industries are facing a stiff challenge in the international market due tohigher productivity cost than the regional andinternational competitors. Local industrieshave to produce their own electricity asWAPDA has failed to cater to their demands.The crisis has gotten so severe that no shortterm solution can be implemented. Though theinstalling capacity is more than the demand ofthe industry but as corruption and financialmisstatement has shaken the entire country soWAPDAhas been forced to shut down number of units. Apart from that, IPPs are providingthe electricity at a much higher cost so that thelocal industry cannot sustain. Consequently,Pakistani exporters are finding themselves inan extremely difficult position whilecompeting with others.

Towards civil war, riots and chaos: Thecurrent energy crisis is so severe that a numberof local and foreign studies are hinting at asocial uprising and chaotic civil environmentdue to it. Violent demonstrations and energyriots have taken place in Faisalabad , Lahoreand Sialkot already. Karachi is already in thegrip of fear due to the law and order situationbut the energy crisis has affected the city oftheQuaid the most. Karachi is the economic hubof Pakistan and any chaos there would bedevastating for the whole economy.

Recommendations: Water and Energy infrastructure developmentmust be on the lines of strategic assets. Unless

Pakistan brings about this decisive change inthe overall national security policy byintegrating energy, food and water into it, thecurrent situation would only get worse thanwhat it currently is.

Pakistan has no food security policy. There hasbeen no survey since 1947 to get an estimate ofthe future demands of wheat, rice, livestockand other food items which are consumed bythe public in bulk. Resultantly, Pakistan's foodsecurity is entirely dependent on naturalfactors and regional politics. A good seasonyields a bumper crop but in drought thesituation changes dramatically. This is adangerous trend and must be reversed ASAP.Exporting surplus wheat is also a disturbingtrend regarding food security. Pakistan mustbuild adequate food preservation centers sothat the country does not face any major foodcrisis under any circumstances.On water, Pakistan will have to take someprompt and tough decisions. Mega damscannot be delayed anymore. Pakistanigovernments during the last 5 years haveannounced the work on Bhasha dam on threedifferent occasions. But the fact is that nophysical work is taking place there. On theother hand, India is building multiple dams oneach Pakistani river to get control over thewater flow. Pakistani diplomacy has failedtremendously. It is time that the militaryestablishment takes this critical issue in itsown hands and takes decisive measures toprevent India from further damage.

Pakistan must sign a water sharing agreementwith Afghanistan as well. Right now, Pakistanhas no legal right to object to the Indianprojects on river Kabul. This has been delayeddangerously already.

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