energy challenges dr. robert mackay. outline natural and anthropogenic climate forcing
TRANSCRIPT
Energy Challenges
Dr. Robert MacKay
Outline
Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Forcing
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Vostok Ice Core data
http://www.atmosedu.com/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxideCLEANStudent.htm
http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htm
Because of long time delays for the carbon cycle, drastically different scenarios yield very similar results for a 20 year time horizon, but drastically different result for a 50 to 100 year time horizon.
http://www.atmosedu.com/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxideCLEANStudent.htm
Turning off all emissions (very unrealistic) will still leave atmospheric CO2Levels at 350 ppm in the year 2110.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10507-carbon-emissions-rising-faster-than-ever.html
Global per capita emission have held steady for past 30 to 40 years. For the past 30 to 35 years emissions have been closely linked to population.
• Global carbon emissions steady for first time since 1992 Drop in rich countries' emissions caused by recession in 2009 was nullified by steep increases from China and India
• http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jul/01/emissions-recession
• http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html • http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/emissions.html
495 x1015 BTU x 1054 Joule/BTU=5.11x1020 J = 511 ExoJoules
Average Power consumption in Watts = Yearly used/ (# of seconds in Year)
Average 2007 Power Consumption =5.11x1020 J/3.15 x107 s=16 TerraWatts
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
How much non-Fossil Fuel energy must be created in the next 25 years?
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
US Carbon emissions through 2008
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
China’s carbon emission through 2008
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
India’s carbon emission through 2004
2008 emission comparison per country
Us, China and India account for 48 % of world wide emissions
2008 emission comparison per country
Top 10 countries account for 67% of global emissions. However all other countries contribute significantly
World Population
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
UNEP mid level projections
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
Fossil Fuel ReservesOil
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
Fossil Fuel ReservesNatural Gas
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
Fossil Fuel Reservescoal
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
Fossil Fuel Reserves
~40 yrs Oil
~80 yrs Natural gas
~200 years coal
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_Energy_consumption.png (BP)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
In 2005 85% of all energy worldwide came from fossil fuels
Wind energy generation is growing at about 30% per year
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
From “The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity” Science Vol 335, 6 January 2012.
From “The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity” Science Vol 335, 6 January 2012.
Artificial leaves CCS (Carbon capture and storage)
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/big-idea/13/carbon-capture-pg2
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2011/08/110811-quest-to-capture-carbon-dioxide/
Artificial Leaves
• http://www.sciencefriday.com/blog/2011/05/faux-tosynthesis-clean-energy-of-tomorrow/
http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab/research/grandchallenges/artificialleaf