Energy and the Future of Humanity John R. Mattox, Fayetteville State University (UNC-FSU)

Peak Oil Simplified

resource depleted

Time

Pro

duct

ion

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is

reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline. The

concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the

combined production rate of a field of related oil wells.

Declining production

production gap!

Time

Pro

duct

ion

Peak oil in detail, 2003 Base Case Scenario

http://info.energyscenariosireland.com/

2010 IEA Annual Report specified that the global production peak for conventional oil was 2006

Hydrofracturing

Henry Jacoby, MIT Faculty member, published something to the effect of:

In treating shale gas as a "bridge" to a low carbon future there are risks to the

development of low-carbon technologies.

In the inaugrial edition of Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy

Air sampling by NOAA over Colorado Finds 4%

Methane Leakage, More Than Double Industry

Claims

2011 study by Tom Wigley of the Center for Atmospheric

Research (NCAR) concluded:

The most important result, however, in accord with

the above authors, is that, unless leakage rates for

new methane can be kept below 2%, substituting gas

for coal is not an effective means for reducing the

magnitude of future climate change.

Energy Reserves and Resources

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

(Exa)J

Oil

Rsv

Oil

Res

Gas

Rsv

Gas

Res

Coal

Rsv

Coal

Res

Unconv

Conv

Reserves/(1998 Consumption/yr) Resource Base/(1998 Consumption/yr)

Oil 40-78 51-151

Gas 68-176 207-590

Coal 224 2160

Rsv=Reserves

Res=Resources

Atmospheric CO2

As of September 2012: 391 ppm

The Greenhouse Effect

Left map: sea ice extent (>15% ice). Right: sea ice concentration (%). Purple line: climatologic extent (1979-2000). Data: 17 September 2012.

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado

IPCC 4th Report

http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

850 ppm CO2 in 2100 (A2) 680 ppm CO2 in 2100 (A1B) 550 ppm CO2 in 2100 (B1) Year 2000 constant concentration 20th century

4oC

2100 CO2 conc.

B1: 550 ppm

A1B : 680

A2 : 850

Game Over for the Climate By JAMES HANSEN

GLOBAL warming isn’t a prediction. It is happening.

That is why I was so troubled to read a recent interview

with President Obama in Rolling Stone in which he said

that Canada would exploit the oil in its vast tar sands

reserves “regardless of what we do.”

If Canada proceeds, and we do nothing, it will be game

over for the climate. Canada’s tar sands, deposits of sand

saturated with bitumen, contain twice the amount of

carbon dioxide emitted by global oil use in our entire

history…

Op-Ed Contribution, NY Times, May 9, 2012

Global Warming Status

1. Knowledge Gap Between - What is Understood (scientists)

- What is Known (public)

2. Planetary Emergency - Climate Inertia Warming in Pipeline

- Tipping Points Could Lose Control

3. Bad News & Good News - CO2 Already in Dangerous Zone

- Multiple Benefits of Solution

Climate Tipping Points

1. Ice Sheet Disintegration - Ocean Warming Ice Shelves Melt

Ice Streams Surge Disintegration

2. Species Extermination - Shifting Climate Zones, Multiple Stresses,

Species Interdependencies

3. Methane Hydrate ‘frozen methane’ - In Tundra & On Continental Shelves

- Depends On Ocean & Ice Sheets

China has the largest fossil fuel emissions today.

However, climate change is driven by cumulative emissions, so

developed nations, especially the U.S., have greatest responsibility.

Fee & Dividend

Fee: Collected at Domestic Mine/Port of Entry

Covers all Oil, Gas, Coal No Leakage

Dividend: Equal Shares to All Legal Residents

Not One Dime to the Government.

Merits:

Transparent. Market-based. Stimulates Innovation.

Does Not Enlarge Government.

Leaves Energy Decisions to Individuals.

A Conservative Energy & Climate Plan.

Hansen, Fig. 1. CO2 emissions by fossil fuels (1 ppm CO2 ~ 2.12 GtC).

• Solar

• Wind

• Nuclear

• Biomass

• Ocean/Tides

• Hydroelectric, Geothermal

Potential Carbon-Free Energy Sources

… a sensible transition energy plan will have to

emphasize energy conservation above all. It also

raises questions about the sustainability of growth

per se, both in terms of human population

numbers and economic activity.

from Richard Heinberg,

Report: Searching for a Miracle:

‘Net Energy’ Limits & the Fate of Industrial Society,

Post Carbon Institute & International Forum on Globalization -

September 2009

Look ma, I just lost 4000 lbs.

Advantages of a bicycle commute

200 lb passenger

10 lbs of freight

30 lb vehicle

200 lb passenger

10 lbs of freight

4295 lb vehicle

Auto/bicycle energy & carbon comparison

2 HP peak, 0.2 HP average for 40 minutes

(Professor Mattox commuting 5 miles to UNC-FSU),

uses 0.1 kWh of energy per round-trip.

Net carbon dioxide emission, NONE! (eating

food grown locally and sustainably).

Also helps to maintain health!

114 HP peak, 35 HP average for 20 minutes

(commuting 5 miles to UNC-FSU),

uses 9 kWh of energy per round-trip.

Carbon dioxide emission, 9.7 lbs per round-trip

(1,700 lbs per year, ~6000 tons per year for all

UNC-FSU faculty, staff, and students).