energy and conflict. gulf war (kuwait), 1991: in 1990, kuwait had set production quotas to almost...

Energy and Conflict

Gulf War (Kuwait), 1991:

In 1990, Kuwait had set production quotas to almost 1.9 million barrels per day (300,000 m3/d), which coincided with a sharp drop in the price of oil. Iraq owed Kuwait a great deal of money following its long war with Iran. Iraq asked Kuwait to forgive the debt. When Kuwait didn’t, Iraq invaded, saying it was because of the Kuwait oil quotas.

August 2, 1990: Iraq invades KuwaitJanuary 17, 1991: A coalition of countries including the US, bombs the Iraqi forces.February 23, 1991: A ground assault starts and lasts 100 hours.The US used over 500,000 troops and spent $7 billion (out of a total of $61 billion)

Iraqi forces set 700 Kuwaiti oil wells on fire.Fires burned for more than 10 months.About 6 million barrels of oil burned each day, for a total of 1.5 billion barrels(The total oil from the Deepwater Horizon spill was about 5 million barrels)

Gulf War in Kuwait

Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes… known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few….No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.

James Madison, Political Observations, 1795

Cross of Iron

“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.”

Cross of Iron

“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.”

Dwight D. Eisenhower, US 5-Star General, Supreme Commander of Allied Forces in WWII, Republican president, April 16, 1953

Farewell Address to the American People

“In the councils of government we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will exist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals so that security and liberty can prosper together.”

President and General Dwight Eisenhower, Jan 31, 1961

What do you think the annual US military budget is (in $B)?

What percentage of the total US budget is military?

What percentage of non-committed funds of the US budget is military?

What is the ratio of US military to Education/Jobs funding?(What do you think it should be?)

What is the ratio of US military spending to Science/Energy/Environment spending?(What do you think it should be?)

What percentage of total world military spending is in the US?

What do you think the annual US military budget is (in $B)?$689 billion (in 2012)What percentage of the total US budget is military?20%What percentage of non-committed funds of the US budget is military?51%What is the ratio of US military to education&jobs funding?(What do you think it should be?)7 to 1What is the ratio of US military spending to Science&Energy&Environment spending?(What do you think it should be?) 10 to 1What percentage of total world military spending is in the US?46%

US Budget: $3.7 trillion proposed for 2013

2013 Budget:

2013 Budget: Moving toward a small government

2013 Budget:http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/02/13/us/politics/2013-budget-proposal-graphic.html?_r=0

US Proposed Energy Budget: 2013

Energy as a part of all science funding: 2009

US Military Spending (Department of Defense) (2010)

$689,000,000,000 per year $1,900,000,000 per day

$79,000,000 per hour $1,300,000 per minute

(but the numbers are really much bigger than this)

US Military Spending

190,000 college scholarships of $10,000 eachcould be provided with just one day of military DoD spending.

All 2012 Defense-Related Expenses: $1.0 – 1.4 trillion

World Total Defense Spending: $1.53 trillion

World Total Defense Spending: Change from 2011-2012

US and China Defense Spending

US Military Spending: (Inflation-Adjusted)

US Military Spending: Per Person

State

“State of Peace” Index

US Foreign Oil Dependence

The US uses 1/4 of daily world oil consumption 20.1 million barrels of oil per day10.5 mbpd are imported - 52%

.

Total US Petroleum Imports (2011)

Iraq War:Sept 11, 2001: World Trade Tower bombings (~3000 deaths)

2002: US accuses Iraq of weapons of mass destruction and of supporting Al-Qaeda. In 2008, the nonpartisan Center for Public Integrity enumerated a total of 935 allegedly false statements made by George W. Bush and six other top members of his administration in what it termed a "carefully launched campaign of misinformation" during the two year period following 9/11 attacks, in order to rally support for the invasion of Iraq.

March 30, 2003: US attacks Iraq, with little international support

December, 2011: The last US combat troops leave Iraq

Total US deaths: >4400 Total Iraqi deaths: >1,000,000Total US cost: >$845 billion Total cost to US economy: >$3 trillion

Iraq Oil Production

Iraq/Iran Oil Production

What about Afghanistan?

Afghanistan mineral resources:

Global Hotspots: Straits of Hormuz

(DOE): “The world’s most important oil chokepoint”

20% of the world’s supply of oil passes through here – 17 million barrels of oil a day

Any sustained blockage in the strait could trigger a 50 percent increase in the price of oil and trigger a full-scale global recession or depression

Global Hotspots: Straits of Hormuz

Iranian Government has threatened to blockade the Strait with continued oil embargoes by the west

US Military is focused on this region

Global Hotspots: South China Sea

Multiple countries have competing claims on various offshore oil and gas resources

China has claimed them all


Most other countries in the region have joined the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), which has the full support of the US

Global Hotspots: Caspian Sea Basin


All of these old SSRs are, to one degree or another, attempting to assert their autonomy from Moscow and establish independent ties with the United States, the European Union, Iran, Turkey, and, increasingly, China.

All are wracked by internal schisms and/or involved in border disputes with their neighbors.

The region would be a hotbed of potential conflict even if the Caspian basin did not harbor some of the world’s largest undeveloped reserves of oil and natural gas, which could easily bring it to large-scale conflict.

“Pipelineistan”


Russia is trying to develop a monopoly on all gas and oil pipelines in the region.

The US is countering by supporting pipelines that avoid Russia, going through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey to the Mediterranean.

China is also countering by building its own pipelines linking the Caspian area to western China. It has an extensive network of pipelines, installed at great cost, known as the “string of pearls.”(An example is the giant strategic port of Gwadar, Pakistan, with 80% of funding coming from China. It will be the terminus of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline, and will be controlled by China, despite great protests by the US.)


All of these pipelines cross through areas of ethnic unrest and pass near various contested regions like rebellious Chechnya and breakaway South Ossetia.

As a result, both China and the U.S. have backed their pipeline operations with military assistance to countries along the routes.

Fearful of an American presence, military or otherwise, in the former territories of the Soviet Union, Russia has responded with military moves of its own, including its brief August 2008 war with Georgia, which took place along a major pipeline route.

Global Hotspots: East China Sea

Japan and China are clashing over who owns the oil and gas fields in the East China Sea

Global Hotspots: Falkland Islands

Britain maintains military control over the Islands, but Argentina has long contested it.

Future Scenarios:

You are in the Cabinet of the President, some time in the future. The US oil reserves have been nearly entirely depleted. OPEC controls nearly all the oil. OPEC is unhappy with US heavy-handed foreign policy and decides to punish the US by stopping all sales of OPEC oil to the US. There is less than a month of national oil reserves. US industry is on the verge of collapse. What do you do?

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