energy and climate ch dhange towards cop21eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/6328.pdf · 1. peak in emissions:...

d li h dEnergy and climate change towards COP21

6 October 20156 October 2015

Takashi HattoriHead of Environment & Climate Change Unit, IEA

© OECD/IEA 2015© OECD/IEA 2015

IEEJ：October 2015, All Rights Reserved.

IEA, energy, and climate change

The IEA’s 4 “E”sThe IEA s 4 E s• Energy security• Economic growth• Economic growth• Environmental sustainability• Engagement worldwide• Engagement worldwide

Energy production and use accounts for two‐thirdsof global greenhouse‐gas emissions

Energy sector must cut emissions, while poweringeconomic growth, boosting energy security &

© OECD/IEA 2015

increasing energy access


Towards COP21

A major milestone in efforts to combat climate change is fast A major milestone in efforts to combat climate change is fastapproaching – COP21 in Paris in December 2015

Momentum is building:Momentum is building:• Historic US‐China joint announcements• Developed & developing countries are putting forward newDeveloped & developing countries are putting forward newpledges to reduce emissions

• Many energy companies & investors are starting to engagey gy p g g g• Pope Francis’ encyclical LAUDATO SI’

© OECD/IEA 2015Source: Brookings Institute Source: Business & Climate SummitSource: US Embassy


Timeline

COP21ADP 2.1031 A 4 S

ADP 2.1119 23 O t

ADP 2.9June

ADP 2.8F b

COP20/ 30 Nov ‐ 11 Dec31 Aug ‐ 4 Sep 19‐23 OctJuneFebDec/14

Sep Oct Nov DecMay June July AugDec

IEA Ministerial

17 18 NovGHG Trading

CCXGSept

Compl Measures 17‐18 NovgWorkshop29‐30 Sept

WEO 2015ETP 2015 WEO

pWorkshop

22 June

Briefs:

10 Nov

Briefs:

May Special ReportJune

© OECD/IEA 2015

Briefs:1. Resilience2. Compl. Measures

Fall

Briefs:1. Key Messages2. Data supplement

Pre‐COP


Emissions burden moves over time

Cumulative energy‐related CO2 emissions by regiongy 2 y g

500Gt

2015‐2040

1890‐2014300

400

1890 2014

200

100

Past emissions are important although the source of emissions

UnitedStates

European ChinaUnion

Russia Japan India Africa

© OECD/IEA 2015

Past emissions are important, although the source of emissions shifts with changes in the global economy


National pledges build toward a global agreement, but are not enough…agreement, but are not enough…

40Gt

INDC Scenario

32

450 Scenario

16

24 450 Scenario

8

16

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

© OECD/IEA 2015

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030


What does the energy sector need from COP21?need from COP21?

The IEA proposal for COP21:The IEA proposal for COP21:1. Peak in emissions – set the conditions which will achieve

l k i l b l l t d i ian early peak in global energy‐related emissions

2. Five‐year revision – review contributions regularly, to testy g y,the scope to lift the level of ambition

3 L k i th i i t l t th t bli h d li t l3. Lock in the vision – translate the established climate goalinto a collective long‐term emissions goal

4. Track the transition – establish a process for trackingenergy sector achievements

© OECD/IEA 2015


1. Peak in emissions: IEA strategy to raise climate ambitionIEA strategy to raise climate ambition

Global energy‐related GHG emissions Savings by measure, 2030

40

CO2‐eq INDC Scenario

Energy

Fossil‐fuelsubsidy reform

35GtC

Bridge Scenario

gyefficiency

Upstream methanereductions

15%

10%

30Bridge Scenario

49%

Renewablesinvestment

17%

25

Reducinginefficient coal

investment9%

Five measures shown in a “Bridge Scenario” achieve a peak in emissions

202000 2014 2020 2025 2030

© OECD/IEA 2015

Five measures – shown in a Bridge Scenario – achieve a peak in emissions around 2020, using only proven technologies & without harming economic growth


2. Five‐year revision:World’s carbon budget is shrinking

World’s remaining carbon budget

World s carbon budget is shrinking

g g

Today 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

A five year review cycle would enable pledges to keep pace with energy sector

© OECD/IEA 2015

A five‐year review cycle would enable pledges to keep pace with energy sector innovation; building ambition before the carbon budget is consumed


3. Lock in the vision:What more does it take for 2 °C?

Cost reductions & deployment of Cost reductions & deployment of

What more does it take for 2 C?

200

Million

electric vehicles400

r kWh

solar PV100

GW 2 500

er kW

100

150

M

200

300

Dollars per

60

80

1 500

2 000

Dollars pe

50

100

100

20040

20

1 000

500

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040Vehicle sales Battery costsCapacity Capital costs

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

TotalVehicle sales

An emissions goal would give greater clarity & certainty to the energy sector

Electric

Battery costsElectric vehicles(right axis)

Solar PV additions

Capacity Capital costsSolar PV(right axis)

Internal combustion

© OECD/IEA 2015

An emissions goal would give greater clarity & certainty to the energy sector, strengthening the case for RD&D investment & technology transfer


4. Track the transition:Impact of pledges must be monitoredImpact of pledges must be monitored

Energy sector indicators are needed to track the low carbon transition;

© OECD/IEA 2015

Energy sector indicators are needed to track the low‐carbon transition; IEA identifies key metrics to monitor energy sector achievements


Other key elements

Strengthen energy sector resilience toStrengthen energy sector resilience toclimate impacts

N F li b i f/ h t li &• Nexus Forum, policy brief/chapter, policy &measures database

Build partnerships to enhance globalimplementation• Engage non‐member countries implementingEngage non member countries, implementingagreements, etc.

© OECD/IEA 2015


Timeline

COP21ADP 2.1031 A 4 S

ADP 2.1119 23 O t

ADP 2.9June

ADP 2.8F b



IEA Ministerial


CCXGSept



pWorkshop

22 June

Briefs:

10 Nov

Briefs:


© OECD/IEA 2015


Fall


Pre‐COP


120 INDCs, 147 countriesOver 87% of energy related GHGOver 87% of energy related GHG

Submitted INDCs (1 October)(1 October)

© OECD/IEA 2015

Submitted INDCs cover over 87% of energy‐related GHG emissions, with implications for future energy & emissions trends


Analysis of INDCs

1. Goal type (absolute, BAU,single or multi‐year etc.)

2. Is the goal quantifiable?

3 Coverage (sectors gases)3. Coverage (sectors, gases)

4. Intention to usei t ti l k tinternational markets

5. Inventory methodologies

6. Accountingapproaches/assumptions

© OECD/IEA 2015

pp / p


Japan: a closer look

INDC: 26% below 2013 by INDC: 26% below 2013 by2030U i h ll

100%

Coal

Unique challenges:• limited resources

60%

80%

Oil

• high energy prices• already high efficiency

40%

60%

LNG

Nuclear post‐Fukushima20%

40%

Nuclear

0%2010 2014 2030

Renewables

© OECD/IEA 2015

2010 2014 2030


Energy, Climate Change & Environment 2014:Unlocking high‐emission assetsU oc g g e ss o assets

Chapter on policies and actions to“unlock” existing high‐emissionsassetsassets• Retirement of coal plant• Change dispatch of existing power plantg p g p p

fleet• Efficiency retrofit of coal plant

fi f l l f CCS• Retrofit of coal plant for CCS

E l f C d Chi UK US Examples from Canada, China, UK, US,EU

© OECD/IEA 2015


Japan: a closer look

INDC: 26% below 2013 by INDC: 26% below 2013 by2030U i h ll

100%

Coal

Unique challenges:• limited resources

60%

80%

Oil

• high energy prices• already high efficiency

40%

60%

LNG

Nuclear post‐Fukushima20%

40%

Nuclear

0%2010 2014 2030

Renewables

© OECD/IEA 2015

2010 2014 2030


Nuclear power can play a role in CO abatement & energy securityCO2 abatement & energy security

Share of energy demand met by domestic sources CO2 emissions avoided annually by nuclear powerand nuclear power in 2040

2.5Gt

1971‐2040

100%

1.5

2.0

60%

80%

0 5

1.0

20%

40%

0.5

1971 2020 20401980 2000

20%

China United European Japan KoreaStates

pUnion

p

Net importsIndigenous production & nuclearNuclear Indigenous production

© OECD/IEA 2015


Nuclear power issues

Retirements of nuclear power capacity Spent nuclear fuel

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20402013

1971‐2040: 705 thousand tonnes

50 United States EuropeanUnion

1001971‐2012

350 thousand tonnes1971‐2040

705 thousand tonnes

a Russia Korea150

200GW

38% of today’s capacity to retire

by 2040

JapanChina

Cana

daIndia

Other

200G

European Union United States Japan Others

© OECD/IEA 2015

By 2040, almost 200 reactors are retired & the amount of spent fuel doubles& the amount of spent fuel doubles


Timeline

COP21ADP 2.1031 A 4 S

ADP 2.1119 23 O t

ADP 2.9June

ADP 2.8F b



IEA Ministerial


CCXGSept



pWorkshop

22 June

Briefs:

10 Nov

Briefs:


© OECD/IEA 2015


Fall


Pre‐COP


COP21 Programme

Two weeks: 30 Nov – 11 DecTwo weeks: 30 Nov 11 Dec Heads of State invited for opening 30 Nov Most Ministers will attend for second week High‐level segment likely Mon 7 – Wed 9 High‐level segment likely Mon 7 Wed 9 Lima‐Paris Action Agenda (LPAA) Theme Days

• e.g. resilience, transport, buildings, renewables, energy efficiency, innovation

© OECD/IEA 2015


Proposed IEA activities at COP21

Key IEA‐led events:• Technical‐level IEA Day (3 Dec) – full day• High‐level IEA/ADB official side event (9 Dec)

Hi h l l bli (10 D )• High‐level public event (10 Dec)

Executive Director activities:• Side event, high‐level bilaterals, speaking engagements

IEA expert presentations and speaking engagements IEA expert presentations and speaking engagements IEA stand with publications

Activities and events in the Le Bourget Civil Society Space and cityof Paris

© OECD/IEA 2015

Web: IEA COP21 webpage and social media (www.iea.org/COP21)


Potential role of Japan at COP?

Play a leading role in the negotiations as one of Play a leading role in the negotiations as one of the largest economies in the world, and a leader in energy efficiency and low carbon technology

Driving innovation and climate action globally

Role in emerging Asian markets?

© OECD/IEA 2015


Timeline after COP

COP21ADP 2.1031 A 4 S

ADP 2.1119 23 O t 30 Nov ‐ 11 Dec31 Aug ‐ 4 Sep 19‐23 Oct

Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 May

IEA Ministerial

17 18 NovGHG Trading ETP 2016

CCXGSept

CCXGMarch

17‐18 NovgWorkshop29‐30 Sept

May

WEO 2015 ECCE 2016Briefs:

1. Resilience2. Compl. Measures

10 Nov

Briefs:

ECCE 2016Spring

© OECD/IEA 2015

2. Compl. MeasuresFall 1. Key Messages

2. DataPre‐COP


Energy, Climate Change & Environment 2016Environment 2016

Preliminary topics:Preliminary topics: Tracking the progress of the INDCs and the 2015 agreement Coal and climateCoal and climate Complementary approaches in i d /b iindustry/business Energy sector resilience to climate changegy g Electricity markets and climate policy

© OECD/IEA 2015

Energy and emissions data


Complementary measures

lType Examples

Voluntary partnerships between businesses and government

• Voluntary programs and agreements(e g UK Climate Change Agreementsbusinesses and government (e.g. UK Climate Change Agreements,Japanese Voluntary Action Plan)

Government actions to influence state‐owned enterprises

• Investments and direct control(e.g. Chinese power, France EDF)

Private sector business action • Unilateral actions, business coalitions,partnerships with NGOs (e.g. renewableenergy targets, supply chain, efficientproducts, investor action)

© OECD/IEA 2015


Complementary measures

January WorkshopJanuary Workshop• Country cases in energy efficiency programs, e.g. Japan

June Workshop/ d f l• Business/industry use of complementary measures

• 70+ attendees from government, industry, research, and NGO itiNGO communities

f i h / b i fi Information sheet / briefing Chapter in ECCE 2016

© OECD/IEA 2015


Discussion

What is Japan’s role at COP21?What is Japan s role at COP21?

h i h f d What might Japan want out of COP21 andthe Agreement?

Takashi [email protected]

Head, Environment & Climate Change UnitSustainable Technology and Policy DirectorateInternational Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA 2015

International Energy Agency


Contact :[email protected]

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