energy and carbon performance of housing: upgrade analysis, energy labelling and national policy...
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Energy and Carbon Performance of Housing:Upgrade Analysis, Energy Labelling and National Policy
Development
Joe Clarke, Cameron Johnstone, Jae-min Kim, Paul TuohyEnergy Systems Research Unit, University of Strathclyde
Simulation has the potential to underpin
future legislative requirements of the
EPBD.
Scottish Building Standards Agency
funded work to investigate national
domestic stock upgrades and
individual dwelling certification.
1. Stock: 2,278,000 dwellings with a high refurbishment requirement.
2. Dwelling types: detached, semi-detached, terraced, tenement (flats with shared access), four-in-a-block, tower block, conversions.
4. Construction system: cavity wall (72%), solid wall (28%).
3. Materials: brick/block (67%), sandstone (18%), whin/granite (4%), non-traditional (10%).
5. External finish: rendered (71%), stone (18%), brick (5%), non-traditional (5%).
6. Energy: dwellings comprise a high proportion of overall energy consumption 14.5 TWh/yr (5.5 MT CO2) for heating against a total demand of 85 TWh/yr.
Project context: Scotland
2. General
mean National Home Energy Rating is 4.1 (0 poor - 10 good)
need for energy efficiency improvements
fuel poverty, hypothermia, condensation and mould growth are concerns
1. Insulation and heating systems
80% have loft insulation (only 12% meet the 1991 building standards)
92% have hot water tank insulation (5% to an unacceptable level)
74% have pipe insulation (13% to an unacceptable level)
70% have gas central heating (14% are partial installations)
Stock performance
Legislative questions what upgrades offer best value?
what deployment combinations are suited to the
different house/construction types?
how should the deployments be phased over time?
can simulation be used to answer such questions?
Relevant upgrades wall, floor, loft, tank and pipe insulation draught-proofing heating system and control improvements double/advanced glazing low energy lights and appliances solar thermal/electric wind energy recovered heat
EDEM model constructed by applying the ESP-r system to the national housing stock
Problematic because of the many permutations of house types, constructional systems and upgrade measures.
Easy to identify dwelling types from an architecture and construction (A/C) viewpoint, but ….
• dwellings belonging to the same A/C group may have different energy consumption (/m2) due to dissimilar energy efficiency measures having been applied;
• dwellings corresponding to different A/C groups may have the same consumption because the governing design parameters are essentially the same.
=> operate in terms of TCs not A/C types.
EDEM: stock modelling
Assume thermodynamic classes (TC) where different A/C types may belong to the same TC.
There are 6,480 TCs each representing unique combination of 7 fabric and 6 system design parameters that may exist at several levels.
Determine the normalised energy performance of each TCs by simulation.
Relate existing or proposed dwellings to a TC via the present level of its governing design parameters.
Should any design parameters be changed as part of an upgrade then that house is deemed to have moved to another TC.
TCs therefore represent all possibilities now and in the future.
Project method
Dwelling model: comprises living, eating and sleeping areas has typical usage patterns, exposures and control set-points has TC specific design parameters applied is subjected to long term representative climate
Simulation context may be varied to represent future scenarios (e.g. climate change or improved living standards).
universe of possibledwellings
• poor insulation• low mass• small windows• leaky• …
• well insulated• high internal mass• large windows• well sealed• …
discrete designs
6,480 simulatedmodels
inherited behaviour
TCs are unique combinations of construction parameters:
insulation level (6) capacity level (2) capacity position (3) air permeability (3) window size (3) exposure (5) wall-to-floor ratio (2)
and systems parameters: fuel type (5) plant type (8) plant efficiency (3) DHW (3) RES type (3) RES scale (3)
giving 2 x 3,240 combinations representing the universe of possibilities.
Thermodynamic class (TC) determinant parameters
Parameter Values Comments
insulation U of wall, floor, roof, glazingpoor 1.80 0.86 0.93 5.1 pre 1965mid 0.60 0.45 0.35 3.3 1981 regulations
warm 0.30 0.25 0.16 2.2 2002 regulationsgood 0.25 0.22 0.16 1.8 2007 regulationsint 0.15 0.15 0.10 1.4 intermediate
super 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.8 advanced
infiltration Air change ratepoor 1.5 typical
standard 1.0 1997 regulationstight 0.5 best practice
capacity effusivity (Jm-2K-1s-1/2)low 675 timber frame or drylinedhigh 1285 plaster on solid
exposure number of exposed surfacesfm 3 sides, 0 roof/floor 3 external surfacesftg 3 sides, 1 roof/floor 4 external surfacesmt 2 sides, 2 roof/floor 4 external surfaces
sdet 3 sides, 2 roof/floor 5 external surfacesdet 4 sides, 2 roof/floor 6 external surfaces
wall ratio number of storeyslow 1 walls lower % of envelopehigh 2 walls higher % of envelope
Insulation:
Infiltration:
Glazed area:
Capacity:
Gains:
Operation:
Exposure:
Hot water use:
Heating system efficiency:
poor ave high eco
leaky ave tight
Climate:
Low carbon heating:
std large
low high
high low med
frugal ave profl
high
std future
high no med
profl frugal ave
high low med
h-m
UKCIP
m-lave low
super
Energy performance characterised by the appropriate combination of key parameters
Energy efficiency lights:
Appliances:
Low carbon electricity: high no med
all no med
high low med
high low med
high low med Water heat sys efficiency:
Emissions factors:
EDEM: performance rating
individual dwelling statement
performance current equivalent
(kgCO2/m2.yr) rating new build
rating
A+ (-20-0)
A (0-15)
B (15-30) B C (30-45)
D (45-60)
E (60-80)
F (80+) F
Fabric loss (exp, ins):
Infiltration:
Glazed area:
Capacity:
Gains:
Operation:
Hot water use:
Energy efficiency lights:
Appliances:
Low carbon electricity:
Heating system efficiency:
v.high high ave low
leaky ave tight
Climate:
Low carbon heating:
std large
low
std
std
std
high no med
high no med
std
all no med
high low med
std
high low med Water heat sys efficiency:
v.low
Emissions factors:
EDEM: performance rating, SAP emulation
individual dwelling statement
performance current equivalent
(kgCO2/m2.yr) rating new build
rating
A+ (-20-0)
A (0-15)
B (15-30) B C (30-45)
D (45-60)
E (60-80)
F (80+) F
Options may be restricted to align with SAP 2005 assumptions
TC Parameters Regression equation coefficients
a b c d e f g h i j k 1 1/0/2/2/0 -1.003 -0.008 -0.115 0.0097 0.0008 0.0052 -0.110 0 0.0009 0.0130 22.7 2 0/0/2/2/0 0.181 -0.015 -0.157 0.2350 -0.0020 0.0013 -0.190 0.00010 0.0030 0.0204 17.4 3 1/0/1/1/1 -0.946 -0.005 -0.106 -0.0080 0.0009 0.0044 -0.107 0 0.0006 0.0128 21.5 4 0/0/0/0/0 -0.755 -0.007 -0.100 -0.0940 0.0028 0.0012 -0.121 0 -0.0020 0.0171 22.9 5 0/0/0/1/0 -0.969 -0.009 -0.112 0.0387 0.0009 0.0052 -0.105 0 0.0010 0.0127 21.6 6 0/0/1/2/0 -0.889 -0.007 -0.098 0.0155 0.0007 0.0046 -0.096 0 0.0009 0.0130 19.7 7 1/1/1/0/0 -0.857 -0.011 -0.113 0.0048 0.0010 0.0054 -0.102 0 0.0007 0.0127 19.2 8 1/1/0/1/0 -0.854 -0.011 -0.112 0.0060 0.0010 0.0053 -0.102 0 0.0007 0.0127 19.1 9 1/0/0/0/2 -0.855 -0.011 -0.113 0.0064 0.0010 0.0054 -0.103 0 0.0007 0.0128 19.110 1/0/0/1/2 -0.856 -0.011 -0.114 0.0078 0.0010 0.0055 -0.104 0 0.0008 0.0129 19.211 1/0/1/2/2 -0.800 -0.010 -0.100 0.0093 0.0011 0.0048 -0.100 0 0.0008 0.0123 17.712 1/0/2/1/2 0.915 -0.013 -0.229 0.0491 -0.0060 0.0047 -0.220 0.00040 0.0081 0.0194 12.313 0/0/2/0/2 -0.685 -0.003 -0.086 0.0552 0.0007 0.0038 -0.083 0 0.0002 0.0105 14.514 0/0/1/1/2 -0.742 -0.005 -0.105 0.0579 0.0007 0.0053 -0.083 0 0.0007 0.0103 15.215 1/1/2/0/1 0.001 0.007 -0.113 -0.0240 -0.0020 0.0014 -0.072 0.00020 0 0.0096 11.016 1/2/2/2/0 -0.610 -0.003 -0.087 0.0602 0.0007 0.0043 -0.076 0 0.0008 0.0091 12.417 0/1/1/0/1 -0.610 -0.003 -0.087 0.0604 0.0007 0.0043 -0.076 0 0.0008 0.0091 12.418 0/1/1/2/1 -0.523 -0.009 -0.097 0.0134 0.0002 0.0051 -0.072 0 0.0006 0.0090 11.619 0/1/2/2/1 -0.557 -0.009 -0.096 0.0489 0.0005 0.0053 -0.071 0 0.0007 0.0090 11.520 1/1/1/1/2 -0.555 -0.009 -0.096 0.0487 0.0005 0.0052 -0.071 0 0.0007 0.0090 11.421 1/1/2/2/2 -0.196 -0.006 -0.092 -0.0190 -0.0010 0.0034 -0.063 0.00003 0.0013 0.0073 10.022 0/1/1/0/2 -0.469 -0.006 -0.084 0.0527 0.0005 0.0045 -0.070 0 0.0009 0.0085 9.723 1/2/1/2/0 -0.465 -0.009 -0.102 0.0130 0.0002 0.0053 -0.071 0 0.0006 0.0091 10.524 0/2/1/0/1 -0.396 -0.005 -0.088 0.0425 0.0001 0.0047 -0.068 0 0.0010 0.0080 8.725 0/1/0/1/2 -0.425 -0.007 -0.076 0.0547 0.0005 0.0042 -0.065 0 0.0094 0.0078 8.626 0/2/0/2/1 -0.389 -0.005 -0.086 0.0396 0.0001 0.0046 -0.066 0 0.0091 0.0078 8.627 1/2/0/2/2 -0.237 -0.009 -0.074 -0.0050 0 0.0040 -0.046 0.00004 0.0002 0.0063 6.028 1/2/1/0/2 -0.228 -0.009 -0.069 -0.0060 0 0.0038 -0.042 0.00004 0.0001 0.0058 5.629 0/2/0/0/2 -0.159 -0.005 -0.053 0.0079 0 0.0032 -0.036 0.00002 0.0004 0.0043 3.930 0/2/1/2/2 -0.157 -0.005 -0.052 0.0077 0 0.0031 -0.035 0.00002 0.0004 0.0043 3.9
E = a θ + b Rd + c Rf + dV + e θ Rd + f θ Rf + g θ V + h Rd Rf + i RdV + j Rf V + k
large windows, poor insulation, high capacity (externally located), high infiltration, …
Dwelling Type
Detached Semi-detached Terrace Tenement flat 4-in-a-block As built As As As As built #1 built #1 built #2 built #1
Heating demand 43 71 43 87 41 81 34 66 30(kWh m-2y-1)
TC model 13 30 18 28 13 29 21 11 26TC heating 46 76 46 91 46 87 34 67 26(kWh m-2y-1)
% difference 7 7 7 5 12 7 3 2 -13
#1: with double glazing, cavity and loft insulation and draught proofing.#2: with double glazing, internal insulation and draught proofing.
EDEM validation (v. measured and full scale simulation)
EDEM validation (v. published NHER ratings)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
NHER
EDEM
EDEM (Electric) EDEM (Gas)
Certificate and improvement advice
Individual dwelling
statement
EDEM: application scale
performance current equivalent
(kgCO2/m2.yr) rating new build
rating
A+ (-20-0)
A (0-15)
B (15-30) B C (30-45)
D (45-60)
E (60-80)
F (80+) F
Individual dwelling EPBD rating and action
plan generation
EDEM
Stock rating and upgrade strategy appraisal
performance current equivalent
(kgCO2/m2.yr) rating new build
rating
A+ (-20-0)
A (0-15)
B (15-30) B C (30-45)
D (45-60)
E (60-80)
F (80+) F
Scottish housing stock
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 2002 2020A 2020B 2020C
Em
iss
ion
s App
Lights
HW
Heat
Scottish house condition survey
CONTEXT
policy, climate, fuel, demographics,
economics
EDEM in use
property description carbon emission rate
performance current equivalent
type det (kgCO2/m2.yr) rating new build
footprint 45 rating
storeys 2 A+ (-20-0)
window size 10 A (0-15)
infiltration poor B (15-30) Binsulation poor C (30-45)
heating system g(old) D (45-60)
low energy lighting 0% E (60-80)
renewable energy no F (80+) F
EDEM in use: emissions label
property description carbon emission rate
performance current equivalent
type det (kgCO2/m2.yr) rating new build
footprint 45 rating
storeys 2 A+ (-20-0)
window size 10 A (0-15)
infiltration poor B (15-30) Binsulation high C (30-45)
heating system g(old) D (45-60) Dlow energy lighting 0% E (60-80)
renewable energy no F (80+)
high insulation level:
property description carbon emission rate
performance current equivalent
type det (kgCO2/m2.yr) rating new build
footprint 45 rating
storeys 2 A+ (-20-0)
window size 10 A (0-15)
infiltration tight B (15-30) Binsulation high C (30-45) Cheating system g(old) D (45-60)
low energy lighting 0% E (60-80)
renewable energy no F (80+)
tight air leakage:
property description carbon emission rate
performance current equivalent
type det (kgCO2/m2.yr) rating new build
footprint 45 rating
storeys 2 A+ (-20-0)
window size 10 A (0-15)
infiltration tight B (15-30) B Binsulation high C (30-45)
heating system g(new) D (45-60)
low energy lighting 0% E (60-80)
renewable energy no F (80+)
new heating system:
SAP rating
current
A (100-120)
B (85-100)C (70-84)D (55-69)E (40-54)F (25-39) 34G (1-24)
annual fuel cost: £802
SAP rating
improved
A (100-120)
B (85-100) 85C (70-84)D (55-69)E (40-54)F (25-39)
G (1-24) annual fuel cost: £198
current rating
improved rating
Current Property
size:
footprint 60 storeys 1
type:
House type: det,sd-et,mt,flat flat
Window %TFA: (10 or 25): 10
parameters:
Airflow: tight, std, poor: poor
Insulation: high, std, poor poor
Heating: el, g(old), g(new) el
LEL: 0%, 50%, 100% 0%
RES: no,shw,(pv+shw tbd) no
Improved Property
parameters:
Airflow: tight, std, poor: poor
Insulation: high, std, poor poor
Heating: el, g(old), g(new) g(new)
LEL: 0%, 50%, 100% 0%
RES: no,shw,(pv+shw tbd) no
ENERGY CERTIFICATE
improvement advice
EDEM in use: energy certificate
household questionnaire
EDEM application: national scale
Date
Type
Pre 1919-65 (64%) 1965-82 (25%) 1982-02 (11%)
Cavity Solid Non-trad.
Cavity | Solid
Cavity Solid Non-trad.
Cavity | Solid
Cavity
Timber | Trad.
Houses
Detached 4% 5% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 2%
2%
18%
Semi-detached 8% 5% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5 21%
Terraced 8.5% 3.5% 0.5 0.5% 6% 1.5% 1.5% 1% 1% 24%
Flats
Tenement 6% 9% 1% 1% 3% 0.5% 0.5% 1% 1% 23%
Four-in-a-block 6% 2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 10%
Tower block 1% 0.5% 1.5% 3%
Conversion 2% 2%
Total (2.1 M) 33.5% 26.5% 2.5% 2% 17.5% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.5% 100%0%
62%
38%
Totals
TC assignment
Date
Type
Pre 1919-65 (64%) 1965-82 (25%) 1982-02 (11%)
Cavity Solid Non-trad.
Cavity | Solid
Cavity Solid Non-trad.
Cavity | Solid
Cavity
Timber | Trad.
Houses
Detached 6 2,1 6,7,17,18
6, 18 2, 19 26
17, 18 18%
Semi-detached 6 2, 1 6,7,17,18
6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 21%
Terraced 6 1, 21 6 2 6,7,17,18
6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 24%
Flats
Tenement 6 2, 1 6 2 6,7,17,18
6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 23%
Four-in-a-block 6 1, 2 6 2 6,7,17,18
2, 19 10%
Tower block 6 6 6, 18 3%
Conversion 1, 2 2%
Total (2.1 M) 33.5% 26.5% 2.5% 2% 17.5% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.5% 100%0%
62%
38%
Totals
EDEM application: national scale
Date
Type
Pre 1919-65 (64%) 1965-82 (25%) 1982-02 (11%)
Cavity Solid Non-trad.
Cavity | Solid
Cavity Solid Non-trad.
Cavity | Solid
Cavity
Timber | Trad.
Houses
Detached 4% 5% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 2%
2%
18%
Semi-detached 8% 5% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5 21%
Terraced 8.5% 3.5% 0.5 0.5% 6% 1.5% 1.5% 1% 1% 24%
Flats
Tenement 6% 9% 1% 1% 3% 0.5% 0.5% 1% 1% 23%
Four-in-a-block 6% 2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 10%
Tower block 1% 0.5% 1.5% 3%
Conversion 2% 2%
Total (2.1 M) 33.5% 26.5% 2.5% 2% 17.5% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.5% 100%0%
62%
38%
Totals
TC assignment
Date
Type
Pre 1919-65 (64%) 1965-82 (25%) 1982-02 (11%)
Cavity Solid Non-trad.
Cavity | Solid
Cavity Solid Non-trad.
Cavity | Solid
Cavity
Timber | Trad.
Houses
Detached 6 2,1 6,7,17,18
6, 18 2, 19 26
17, 18 18%
Semi-detached 6 2, 1 6,7,17,18
6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 21%
Terraced 6 1, 21 6 2 6,7,17,18
6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 24%
Flats
Tenement 6 2, 1 6 2 6,7,17,18
6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 23%
Four-in-a-block 6 1, 2 6 2 6,7,17,18
2, 19 10%
Tower block 6 6 6, 18 3%
Conversion 1, 2 2%
Total (2.1 M) 33.5% 26.5% 2.5% 2% 17.5% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.5% 100%0%
62%
38%
Totals
EDEM in use
Current stock maps to 8 TCs: - TC6 - TC2 - TC1 - TC7 - TC17 - TC18 - TC19
TC Description % of stock Number of
dwellings
Floor area (m2)
Annual heating demand
(kWh/m2)
1 Solid wall, high thermal mass, large windows, poor insulation and large air change rate
11.5 261,970 22,461,000 90
2 Solid wall, high thermal mass, standard windows, poor insulation and large air change rate
16.5 375,870 31,778,000 87
6 Cavity wall, outer thermal mass, standard windows, poor insulation and large air change rate
42 956,760 83,283,000 75
7 Cavity wall, inner thermal mass, large windows, standard insulation and large air change rate
7.25 165,155 15,934,000 73
17 Cavity wall, inner thermal mass, standard windows, standard insulation and standard air change rate
8.25 187,935 18,087,000 47
18 Cavity wall, outer thermal mass, standard windows, standard insulation and standard air change rate
11 250,580 23,810,000 47
19 Solid wall, standard thermal mass, standard windows, standard insulation and standard air change rate
2.5 56,950 5,159,000 46
26 Timber wall, outer thermal mass, standard windows, high insulation and standard air change rate
1 22,780 2,596,000 26
Upgradestrategy
ExistingTC
% of stock
% of annual heating demand
Improvement NewTC
National heating demand
reduction (TWh) (%)
TC6
TC11
42 43 Air tightness to high standards
TC11 0.67 4.6
Insulation to standard levels
TC18 2.2 15.5
TC2 16.5 19 Standard levels of draught proofing and insulation
TC19 1.3 9
TC1 11.5 14 High levels of draught proofing; standard levels of insulation
TC21 1.2 8.7
TC7 7.25 8 High levels of draught proofing and insulation
TC28 1 7
TC17 & TC18
19.25 13.5 High levels of draught proofing
TC22 0.7 5
High levels of insulation
TC24 0.9 6
High levels of draught proofing and insulation
TC30 1.6 11
TC19 2.5 1.5 High levels of draught proofing; standard levels of insulation
TC21 0.06 0.4
TC upgrades may be phased:
- TC6 to TC11 then to TC18
- TC18 to TC22/ TC24 then to TC30
12 TC relocations examined:• 1 to 16 and 21• 2 to 19• 6 to 11, 18 and 30• 7 to 28• 17 to 22 and 24• 18 to 30• 19 to 21
5 relocations gave highest potential for space heating energy savings:
• 1 to 21 (62%)• 2 to 19 (48%)• 6 to 30 (90%)• 7 to 28 (86%)• 18 to 30 (80%)
Upgradestrategy
Space heating impact, detached houses
Build period Construction
% of total stock
Generic TC
Total floor area (m2)
Net heating energy demand
(GWh /yr)
Heating energy saving
potential
New TC category
with energy saving
Net heating demand with energy saving
measures (GWh /yr)
Net heating energy saved
(GWh /yr)
Cavity wall 4 6 11,844,000 896 45% 11, 18, 30 492.8 403.2
Solid wall 5 1 14,805,000 1,322.4 45% 16, 21 727.3 595.1
Pre 1919-65
2 19
Cavity wall 4 6 11,844,000 710.6 75% 11, 18, 30 177.7 533.0
7 28
17 22, 24
18 30
Non-Traditional 0.5 6 1,480,500 88.9 85% 11, 18, 30 13.3 75.6
Cavity wall 18 30
Non-Traditional 0.5 2 1,480,000 88.9 37% 19 56.0 32.9
1965-1982
Solid wall 19
Cavity wall - Timber
2 26 5,922,000 154.2 55% 27 69.4 84.9
Cavity wall - Traditional 2 17 5,922,000 273.0 67% 22, 24 90.1 182.9
1982-2002
18 30
Total 18 53,297,500 3,544 1,626.6 1,917.7
Overall outcome: TC 6 to 30 for detached house
improvement
advice
EDEM application: regional scale
Number of commercial wind turbines required to offset emissions from South Ayrshire Council Housing Stock (based on the
proposed Whitelees wind farm, Eaglesham)
1715
12 11
8 8 7 7
3
upgrade scenario
turb
ines
(10
0m)
South Ayrshire Council Housing Stock (7876 dwellings) Carbon Footprint Projection
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
upgrade scenario
ca
rbo
n f
oo
tpri
nt
pe
r d
we
llin
g (
T C
O2
pa
)
ESP-r system used to formulate EDEM for domestic sector upgrade appraisal.
The approach is widely applicable because the underlying TCs cover all possibilities, present and future.
EDEM is available under an Open Source license.
EDEM has been applied at national and regional levels. In the former case (i.e. for Scotland 14.5 TWh/y):
Conclusions
Phase 1 (TC6, TC2 & TC1) - 4.7 TWh/y (32.4%) & 1.8 MT CO2
+Phase 2 (TC7) - 5.7 TWh/y (39.3%) & 2.2 MT CO2
+Phase 3 (TC17 & TC18) - 7.3 TWh/y (50.3%) & 2.8 MT CO2
+End of programme (TC19) - 7.6 TWh/y (52.4%) & 2.8 MT CO2