energy and advanced coal utilization strategy in china · huge demand (market) of lpg in china for...
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Energy and Advanced Coal Utilization Strategy in China
Prof. Ni WeidouTsinghua University
Chairman of Steering Committee of
Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Research and Education Centre
Member of Chinese Academy of Engineering
Chairman of Science and Technology Commission of Ministry of Education
ContentsTsinghua BP Clean Energy Centre
Present energy situation in China
China’s energy demand in 2020
Five challenges China is facing and general conclusions
Strategy for coal utilization
Urgent actions should be taken
Five challenges China is facing
Enormous energy demand
Shortage of liquid fuels
Severe environmental pollution
Greenhouse gas emissions
Rural energy supply
China’s Present Energy SituationThe total primary energy consumption and production were 1165Mtoe and 1120Mtoe in 2003, respectivelyCoal of the dominate primary energy accounts for nearly 70% The per capita energy consumption is only half of the world average level
GDP per capita comparison of countries, in USD
42318
31707 30845 2895926071
12068
5462
1000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Japan Germany America France Singapore Korea The average China
注:1995年价
资料来源:《日本能源经济统计手册》(2002)
Per capita energy consumption in toe
4.07 4.11
8.14
4.35
5.74 5.69
0.698
3.85
0123456789
JapanGerm
anyAmerica
FranceSingapore
Australia
China EU
注:1999年数据,资料来源:《日本能源经济年鉴》(2000)
China’s Present Power Generation Situation
The total power capacity: 370 GWSignificantly increasing of energy
consumption, especially oil, in recent years due to - the faster growth of heavy industries- upgrade of consumption structure - urbanization
The Projection of Energy Demand
The total energy demand in 2020 will range 1750-2310Mtoe in terms of different scenarios
Coal:2100~2900Mt Oil:400~500MtNatural gas :160~200 b m3
Power generation capacity:860-950 GWIn 2050 the total energy demand will be beyond 3500Mtoe
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 (年份)
(单
位:
亿吨
标煤
)
可再生能源
核能
水电
天然气
石油
煤
一次能源消费
The Energy Production Scenarios
China will be facing the challenges in the future
1、The energy securityThe per capita energy reserves of China are much low, especially for the oil and natural gasOil will reach the peak production around 200Mt
in 2020, after then the production will decrease60% oil and natural gas in 2020 will depend on
import 100Mt coal production new capacity will be set-
up before 2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
年份
100Mt
需求量 国内产量
Increasing Dependence on Oil Import
Huge Demand (Market) of LPG in China for Residential and Vehicle Use
China’s DME consumption ranks 3rd in the world – 19.3 mil. t. in 2003Mainly for residential use, for vehicles as wellFrom 1990, LPG consumption increase rate – more than 20%, the highest in the worldBecause of the limited domestic production – the 2nd largest import country
Huge demandof LPG
Rely onimport
Market of DMEas alternative of
LPG
19.33
7.18
22
8.22
29.5
11.52
2003 Real 2005 Prediction 2010 Prediction
Unit: mil. t.
LPG ConsumptionDME as LPG alter.
•LPG annual import increase rate: 7%•LPG : DME equivalent set to be 1:1.15
Huge Market of DME as Alternative of Diesel Fuel in China
• Half of diesel oil for highway and long-distance transportation, it is the main market of DME
84.34
5.95
105.46
14.87
129.9
27.47
2005 2010 2015
Unit: mil. t.
Predicted demand of dieselfuel
Predicted Demand of DME asalternative of diesel oil (5%,10% and 15% up to 2015)
China will be facing the challenges in the future
The energy consumption intensity of GDP of China in 2000 was 0.89kgoe/$US, 3.34 times of world average level and 4.63 times of OECD average attributed to as high as 42% industrial proportion in GDP and low value added for most products, and low energy efficiency.
The specific energy consumption for most energy intensive products are as 20-50% higher than that of the industrial countries.
22、、Energy efficiency improvementEnergy efficiency improvement
China will be facing the challenges in the future
The SO2 and NOx pollutant could be 40Mt and 35Mt and exceed 16Mt and 19Mt of the pollutant limits, respectively, in 2020 if no additional control measures will be taken
China is the second largest CO2 emission country, it would increase in the future
33、Environmental impact of energy pollutant
Energy Strategic GoalMeet energy needs for sustainable
development
Ensure social and economic security
Improve air quality
by promoting
Energy efficiency and clean use
Diversified energy supply
Intermediate objectives (2020)2020: fourfold GDP with double energy
consumptionPremium on energy conversation by adjusting industrial structure, upgrading products, and energy efficiency improvement Ensuring increasing energy demands by fundamental role of coal supply and application of high efficient and environmentally sound technologiesTackling the needs of oil and natural gas by efficiency improvement, fuel substitution, exploration of new reserve, diversifying supply sources, and oil emergency reservation
Intermediate objectives (2035)2035: fundamental change
for diversifying energy supplyFostering nuclear power development and increasing proportion of nuclear in total power generation to 16% around 2035
Accelerating renewable energy scaling-up application
Commercial application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle in main cities
Intermediate objectives (2050)2050:towards to sustainable energy
Reducing coal proportion in total primary energy below 50%
Providing new increasing energy demands mainly by nuclear and renewable and contributing more than 30% proportion in total primary energy after 2035
Hydrogen power becoming main component of transportation and substantially reducing dependence on oil import
Priority Programs From the LT S&T Strategy
Technologies for energy efficiency
Clean coal technologies
The support technologies for protecting oil security
Advanced nuclear technologies
Long distance transmission and grid reliability
Application of renewable energy
Hydrogen & fuel cell
Sustainable Use of CoalAccording to the sophisticated model study, to 2030~2050 with the constraints of
SO2, NOx emission
C—66Gt, 450 ppm
Less than 30~40% import oil
Modernization of coal utilization is unavoidableCoal will still be the main primary energy in China up to 2050 (50% or more)
Clean coal technology will be the most important problem from the energy supply and environment point of view
Sustainable Use of CoalRapid increase from 400 GW to 950 GW of power generation needs new approach and new technology beyond direct combustion—polygeneration, coproduction of power、liquid fuels、chemicals and syngas via coal (petcoke, residues, biomass…) gasification
Only polygeneration will make coal derived liquid fuel and clean power (IGCC) both competitive in comparison with coal-fired power generation and petroleum derived fuels (gasoline, diesel…)
Sustainable Use of Coal
Shortage of vehicle fuel could be solved by introduction of alternatives, that is methanol for gasoline and DME for diesel. This approach will lead to more efficient utilization of coal, much less emission of HC, NOx, soot…Furthermore, less GHG emission (CO2) according to the total life cycle analysis (LCA)
The modernization of coal use via gasification with steam shift (CO + H2O CO2 + H2) and separation of CO2 from H2, further, sequestration of “pure” CO2 is the best and most effective way for GHG mitigation
The strategy for coal utilizationPresent Strategy
Develop and employ large scale, higher parameter power units with emission control facility, (SC, USC, CFB, air cooling) to meet power generation demand
Large scale demonstration of polygeneration
Vision for sustainable coal utilization
Energy Carriers
ElectricitySteamTown gasMethanol/gasoline blendF-T/Diesel blendDME
End uses
IndustryTransportationDomesticTertiaryAgriculture
Near / Medium term
Energy Carriers
ElectricitySteamHydrogenDME
End uses
IndustryTransportationDomesticTertiaryAgriculture
Long term
Infrastructure RequirementsNear / medium-term Medium / long- term Long-termHydrocarbons DME Hydrogen
FeedstocksCoal
Heavy oilsPetroleum residuals
BiomassWastes
Natural gas
Gasification(syngas generator)
POLYGENERATION
Energy Carriers
ElectricitySteamTown gasMethanol/gasoline blendF-T/Diesel blendDME
End uses
IndustryTransportationDomesticTertiaryAgriculture
Near / Medium term
Energy Carriers
ElectricitySteamHydrogenDME
End uses
IndustryTransportationDomesticTertiaryAgriculture
Long term
Infrastructure RequirementsNear / medium-term Medium / long- term Long-termHydrocarbons DME Hydrogen
Infrastructure RequirementsNear / medium-term Medium / long- term Long-termHydrocarbons DME Hydrogen
FeedstocksCoal
Heavy oilsPetroleum residuals
BiomassWastes
Natural gas
Gasification(syngas generator)
POLYGENERATION
Vision of coal utilization in China
Coal based Polygeneration for now and for the future
Integrated Resource-Energy-Environment System
AirSeperation
GasificationHigh Tem.Clean up
Air
Coal
petroleumcoke andresidue
O2
N2,ArNG
Heat/power/coolcogeneration
IGCC or GCC
chemicalproducts
Liquidfuel
others
Syngas
ShiftSteam
Seperation
Heat/power/coalcogeneration
Fuelcell
Large-scalepower
generation
Seque-stration
Dryice
ferti-lizer
algaeplantgrowth
CO2+H2
CO2
H2
Commercialbuilding
residential
enhancementof CBM
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
Simplified illustration of Polygeneration
Integrated Resource-Energy-Environment System
Coal/petrol coke/residue→syngas→ elemental S
Syngas used for:– town gas, distributed CHP+cool
– large scale power generation(FC, CC)
– once through production of methanol
– once through production of liquid fuels (F-T liquid, DME)
– other chemicals
Integrated Resource-Energy-Environment System
Syngas via shift/separation→H2:– urban vehicles via PEM-FC
– energy carrier for distributed power/heat/cool co-production
treatment of CO2: pure / easier to handle– raw material for fertilizer, chemicals, dry ice, planting
– enhancement production of coal bed methane (CBM)
– sequestration: deep sea/depleted NG field/salt aquifers
Features of Integrated Resource-Energy-Environment SystemIntegration of different processes: power /
heat / cool / chemicals– not only simple combination: simplification of
each single process, lowering investment and operation cost
– optimized coupling of processes: maximum economic & environmental benefit
– adjustment and compensation: “peak” and “valley” of different products
– benefit of large scale effect
Feature of Integrated Resource-Energy-Environment SystemHighly flexible and open
– diverse configurations in accordance to the different concrete situations
– step by step implementation
– extending with accumulation of funds and experiences
With more and more stringent environmental regulation, the advantages of coal gasification polygeneration will be more and more economically significant.
SO2+NOX SO2+NOX+Hg+PM2.5
SO2+NOX+Hg+PM2.5+CO2
New coal fired boiler
Gasification
Urgent actions should be taken(1)
Total Primary Energy Supply
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
BASE CASE Updated model Updated AdvTech with All Caps and Low Nuclear
Exaj
oule
s
EFFICIENCY
RENEWABLES
NUCLEAR
CBM
NGAS
OIL
COALGasification
COALCombustion
Base Technologies Advanced TechnologiesSO 2, 30% O il&G as, 66 G t C Caps
Scenario study (MARKEL model)
Urgent actions should be taken(2)The effect of Advanced Technologies Scenario
Provides the same energy services at about the same cost as the Base technologies strategy SO2 emissions are reduced from 23.7 Mt in 1995 to 16.2 Mt in 2020 and 8.8 Mt in 2050 Imports of oil and natural gas are limited to 30% of consumption of oil and gas over the long-term 66 Gt C caps
Urgent actions should be taken(3)
Projection for Coal Power Plant Capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Gig
awat
ts
Post-2000 New Capacity
Pre-2000 Capacity
Urgent actions should be taken(4)Delaying the start of the transition to
coal gasification-based polygeneration technology would significantly increase: the costs to China of air pollution damages, the costs of oil imports, the costs of reducing GHG emissions.
Forecast of CO2 emission from different countries
CO2 emission of China
95%+ from energy activities
Coal is dominant primary energy, 2001 about 26.8EJ, 63.8% of total. Oil 10.8EJ, 25.7%.
In 2001, 76.8% of CO2emission from coal combustion, 21.1% from oil, 2.1% from natural gas
Annual emission growth rate: about 4%
Coal 63.8%26.8 EJ
Oil 25.7%10.8 EJ
Natural Gas 3.1%1.3 EJ
Hydraulic 6.9%2.9 EJ
Nuclear etc. 0.5%0.2 EJ
Coal 76.8%2.34 Gt
Oil 21.1%0.64 Gt
Natural gas2.1% 0.07 Gt
Total: 3.05 Gt CO2
CO2 emission trend of China
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
0
4
8
12
108 to
ns o
f car
bon
Total Fossil Fuel CO2 EmissionsCO2 Emissions from Gas FuelsCO2 Emissions from Liquid FuelsCO2 Emissions from CoalCO2 Emissions from Cement ProductionCO2 Emissions from Gas Flaring
Analysis of power plants with CO2 mitigation
CO2 Emission (g C/kWh)
196
92.2
200211
19.927.629.510.90
50
100
150
200
250
NGCC Coal-SCS Coal-USC IGCC
CO2 VentedCO2 Captured
Analysis of power plants with CO2 mitigation (contd.)
Efficiency (% HHV)
43.142.740.5
53.6
373128.9
43.3
0102030405060
NGCC Coal-SCS Coal-USC IGCC
CO2 VentedCO2 Captured
Analysis of power plants with CO2 mitigation (contd.)
CO2 mitigation cost ($/ton C)
96.5
208.8209.5
310.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
NGCC Coal-SCS Coal-USC IGCC
Coal Gasification System Ready for Large-Scale H2 production and Utilization
Coal Gasification is the Core of Future New Thermal Cycles
When coupled with High Temperature Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC), the efficiency of IGCC-SOFC could be up to 60%~65%.SOFC has the similar function like Water Gas Shift for increasing CO2 concentration in syngas
Roadmap for Carbon Mitigation in China
Improvement of efficiencyRapid development of nuclear powerRenewable energy (wind, biomass, solar)Polygeneration via coal gasification
Without shift – less CO2
With shift – more CO2 could be separated
Partial decarbonization of syngas, combustion of H2-rich fuel gas in GTCC, SOFC hybrid, …Utilization of CO2 – fertilizer, EOR, enhancement of CBM recovery…Geological sequestration, survey of potential and possibilities of sequestration – depleted oil and gas fields, salt aquifers, deep sea… Infrastructure problems.
Thank You!
Xie xie