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Sociological Theory 2019, Vol. 37(4) 342–362 © American Sociological Association 2019 DOI: 10.1177/0735275119888247 st.sagepub.com Original Article Ending the Stalemate: Toward a Theory of Anthro-Shift Dana R. Fisher 1 and Andrew K. Jorgenson 2 Abstract For years, sociologists who study society and the environment have focused on resolving the debate regarding the relationship between economic development and environmental degradation. Studies from a family of critical perspectives tend to find that economic development is antithetical to environmental protection, whereas a suite of more optimistic perspectives has uncovered more hopeful findings. We attempt to resolve these differences by situating this debate within the larger framework of the anthro-shift. The anthro-shift explains how the society-environment relationship changes over time. The theory assumes this relationship is the product of interrelations among the state, market, and civil society sectors. We focus on two distinctive qualities of the anthro-shift: the role risk plays as a pivot for reorienting how society interacts with the natural environment and the multidirectionality of the theory, highlighting how it combines elements of many of the dominant critical and optimistic perspectives into a broader framework. Keywords environmental sociology, environment Donald Trump is positioned to be the most anti-environmental president of the United States since at least the National Environmental Policy Act was signed into law in 1970. As a candidate, he campaigned with the promise of rolling back numerous environmental poli- cies. Since the election, the president has followed through on his promises 1 : He appointed a climate denier to head the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2 a leading voice for fossil fuel development on public lands to head the Department of the Interior, 3 and the chief executive of Exxon Mobil, which is under investigation for burying information it had about the science of climate change, to run the State Department. 4 In June 2017, the presi- dent formally announced that he was withdrawing the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, 5 making the United States the only country to withdraw from the international environmental agreement. Later that year, his EPA administrator formally announced that 1 University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA 2 Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA Corresponding Author: Dana R. Fisher, Department of Sociology, University of Maryland, 2112 Art-Sociology, College Park, MD 20742, USA. Email: [email protected] 888247STX XX X 10.1177/0735275119888247Sociological TheoryFisher and Jorgenson research-article 2019

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  • https://doi.org/10.1177/0735275119888247

    Sociological Theory2019, Vol. 37(4) 342 –362

    © American Sociological Association 2019 DOI: 10.1177/0735275119888247

    st.sagepub.com

    Original Article

    Ending the Stalemate: Toward a Theory of Anthro-Shift

    Dana R. Fisher1 and Andrew K. Jorgenson2

    AbstractFor years, sociologists who study society and the environment have focused on resolving the debate regarding the relationship between economic development and environmental degradation. Studies from a family of critical perspectives tend to find that economic development is antithetical to environmental protection, whereas a suite of more optimistic perspectives has uncovered more hopeful findings. We attempt to resolve these differences by situating this debate within the larger framework of the anthro-shift. The anthro-shift explains how the society-environment relationship changes over time. The theory assumes this relationship is the product of interrelations among the state, market, and civil society sectors. We focus on two distinctive qualities of the anthro-shift: the role risk plays as a pivot for reorienting how society interacts with the natural environment and the multidirectionality of the theory, highlighting how it combines elements of many of the dominant critical and optimistic perspectives into a broader framework.

    Keywordsenvironmental sociology, environment

    Donald Trump is positioned to be the most anti-environmental president of the United States since at least the National Environmental Policy Act was signed into law in 1970. As a candidate, he campaigned with the promise of rolling back numerous environmental poli-cies. Since the election, the president has followed through on his promises1: He appointed a climate denier to head the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA),2 a leading voice for fossil fuel development on public lands to head the Department of the Interior,3 and the chief executive of Exxon Mobil, which is under investigation for burying information it had about the science of climate change, to run the State Department.4 In June 2017, the presi-dent formally announced that he was withdrawing the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement,5 making the United States the only country to withdraw from the international environmental agreement. Later that year, his EPA administrator formally announced that

    1University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA2Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA

    Corresponding Author:Dana R. Fisher, Department of Sociology, University of Maryland, 2112 Art-Sociology, College Park, MD 20742, USA. Email: [email protected]

    888247 STXXXX10.1177/0735275119888247Sociological TheoryFisher and Jorgensonresearch-article2019

    https://st.sagepub.commailto:[email protected]://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.1177%2F0735275119888247&domain=pdf&date_stamp=2019-12-17

  • Fisher and Jorgenson 343

    the administration would repeal the Clean Power Plan, thereby canceling one of the Obama administration’s central policies to regulate fossil fuel consumption and address the issue of climate change (Fisher et al. 2018).6 More recently, the administration has loosened regulations on toxics, pesticides, and water pollution (Dillon et al. 2018).

    The Trump administration’s policies are in sharp contrast to the eight years of the Obama administration. In addition to implementing environmental regulation through administra-tion-driven efforts, including executive orders, the Obama administration supported the expansion of the “green economy” through numerous tax incentives and investments.7 For example, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 invested, in part, in more environmentally sound technologies (Galli and Fisher 2016). Although the Obama adminis-tration did not solve the environmental challenges facing society, its policies led to nontrivial reductions of numerous environmental bads, including decreased levels of carbon emissions in the United States.8 Moreover, these policies expanded safeguards for environmental goods in the form of protections to natural areas and national parks.9

    In recent years, sociologists have noted how the policies of the Obama administration were consistent with sociological theories that argue that environmental protection is com-patible with economic growth (e.g., Galli and Fisher 2016; Grant and Vasi 2017; Obach 2015; Yang 2016; but see Adua, York, and Schuelke-Leech 2016; Bonds and Downey 2012). The policies of the Trump administration, however, stand in stark contrast to those of the Obama administration and are more consistent with sociological perspectives that find eco-nomic development to be associated with environmental degradation (e.g., Clark and York 2005; Foster, Clark, and York 2010; Gould, Pellow, and Schnaiberg 2008; Schnaiberg and Gould 1994). To date, no theory of the society-environment relationship adequately explains this shift from the Obama administration to the Trump administration. Although more extreme in its environmentally destructive agenda, this shift is not unprecedented. In fact, we can see similar trends with previous administrations based on the political party in power and the priorities of the specific administration (for a discussion of the George W. Bush administration, e.g., see Cohen 2004).

    In this article, we integrate some of the most central theories in environmental sociology into a broader framework that we call the anthro-shift. The anthro-shift explains the pendu-lum of the society-environment relationship that takes place in response to social and envi-ronmental context, as seen in the shift from the Obama to the Trump administrations (for historical examples, see Dunlap and Catton 1994).

    For decades, theoretical and empirical work in environmental sociology has been domi-nated by a debate over the relationship between society and the natural environment. On the one hand, a number of relatively critical perspectives find that economic development is antithetical to environmental protection given the growth imperative of modern economic systems, their need for continual resource inputs, and the increased environmental harm as economies continue to grow. On the other hand, scholars focusing on modernization pro-cesses and governance tend to be more optimistic, concluding that environmental protection measures themselves are often associated with economic growth.

    To date, limited work has focused on explaining the entire range of empirically docu-mented variation through theory building and subsequent research. We attempt to help tran-scend this debate with two related contributions. First, we summarize a range of perspectives on the society-environment relationship and note their limitations in explaining the empiri-cal reality in which we find ourselves today. Second, we outline the anthro-shift, which aims to explain how the society-environment relationship produces different outcomes at differ-ent times and in different settings. The anthro-shift incorporates components of extant per-spectives in one broader framework that documents how the society-environment relationship

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    is often the product of interrelations among three main social actors—the state, the market, and civil society. As we will discuss, the anthro-shift is driven by risk and is multidirectional in nature.

    We begin by summarizing the drivers of the society-environment relationship. Next, we provide a brief overview of the major differences among the current literatures, focusing specifically on those that motivate the ongoing debate. Then, we provide our definition of the anthro-shift and outline its distinctive components that provide an integrated approach to understanding the society-environment relationship. Here, we focus on the ways that notions of risk drive the anthro-shift and the multidirectionality of its orientation. We conclude by discussing how the anthro-shift could help resolve some of the existing limitations in the sociological literature on the society-environment relationship.

    WHAT DETERMInES THE SOCIETy-EnVIROnMEnT RElATIOnSHIP?

    Drawing from the work of Jürgen Habermas, we contend that much of the variation in expectations of the society-environment relationship can be traced to differing expectations about the nature of the association between state regulation and the economy (see also Block and Somers 2014; Chase-Dunn 1998; Cohn 2016; Polanyi 2001). Habermas (1970, 1975) argued that the transition to an advanced capitalist state leads to a change in the relationship between two of the main actors within society: the state and the market. In McCarthy’s (1978:363) summary, Habermas believed that the economy “no longer has the degree of autonomy” that it previously had. In Habermas’s (1975:40) own words, “The continuing tendency toward disturbance of capitalist growth can be administratively processed and transferred, by stages, through the political and into the socio-cultural system.”

    This interpretation is consistent with many of the more dominant views of the autonomy of the state (see Evans, Rueschemeyer, and Skocpol 1985; Tilly 2007). States are classified as strong or weak depending on their independence and effectiveness in implementing offi-cial actions (Fukuyama 2014, 2016). Characteristics of the nation-state are important to keep in mind because the strength of the state determines its level of autonomy compared to other social actors (Evans 1995; Evans et al. 1985). A strong state has more capacity to implement regressive policies, and a weaker state is more likely to be collaborative and engage in arrangements with other social actors (Clemens and Guthrie 2011; Edwards 2009; Eliasoph 2009; Lichterman and Eliasoph 2014; McAdam, Tarrow, and Tilly 2001).

    Within the modern capitalist system, Habermas identified different social actors as play-ing central roles in maintaining legitimacy and control over society—the state, the market, but also civil society. In his scholarship on the public sphere (Habermas 1989, 1992; see also Calhoun 1992) and in his later work (Habermas 1998), Habermas (1970:118) stressed the importance of an active civil society to bring about “public, unrestricted discussion, free from domination,” or what he might view as true democracy.

    This interpretation is echoed within much research that focuses on civil society—a notion that has roots in some of the mainstream theories of contemporary sociology (e.g., Calhoun 1992; Dewey 1927; Gramsci 1971). Generally, civil society is defined as involving a “self-organized citizenry” (Emirbayer and Sheller 1999:146; see also Cohen and Arato 1994; Hann and Dunn 1996; Wuthnow 1991). Much of this literature conceptualizes civil society itself as an institution, “distinguishing it from both state and economy” (Cohen and Arato 1994:ix). Social movement organizations and voluntary associations made up of organized citizens are considered a part of civil society (Schofer and Longhofer 2011), as are individ-ual citizens who may participate in society in less organized ways. Emirbayer and Sheller (1999:151) argued that the state, the economy, and civil society are realms of social life

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    whose relative independence from one another constitutes “one of the principal hallmarks of modernity. . . . Many of the dynamics of contemporary society are captured in the relations among these empirically interpenetrating and yet analytically distinct institutional domains. . . . [Civil society is] the institutional sector that, metaphorically speaking, lies ‘in between’ the state and economy.” In their more recent work, Lichterman and Eliasoph (2014) showed how what they called “civic action” spans institutional sectors. Consistent with Fisher (2002), who noted that the underlying differences between perspectives on the society-envi-ronment relationship can be better understood through a Habermasian lens, it is our conten-tion that many outcomes, including the society-environment relationship, are the product of interrelations among these social actors.

    PERSPECTIVES On THE SOCIETy-EnVIROnMEnT RElATIOnSHIP

    Environmental sociology scholarship has focused ad infinitum on the debate over the rela-tionship between development and environmental degradation (e.g., Buttel 2000a, 2000b; Clark and York 2005; Fisher and Freudenburg 2004; Frank, Hironaka, and Schofer 2000; Freudenburg 2005; Grant, Jorgenson, and Longhofer 2018; Jorgenson and Clark 2012; Pellow and Brehm 2013; Rosa and Dietz 2012; Rudel, Roberts, and Carmin 2011; Schor and Jorgenson 2019; Shwom 2011; White, Rudy, and Gareau 2016; York, Rosa, and Dietz 2003a). In the following sections, we briefly review these differing perspectives. We begin by reviewing theories and related empirical work that find economic development to be positively associated with environmental degradation (often increasingly so), with a focus on treadmill of production theory and the theory of metabolic rift. Then, we review perspec-tives that come to substantially different conclusions, often finding that economic growth can take place in tandem with improved environmental protection: ecological modernization theory, world society theory, and reflexive modernization theory.

    Critical Perspectives

    As Humphrey and Buttel (1982) noted, the explosion of interest in environmental sociology in the 1970s and 1980s was, in part, a response to societal debates about the limits to growth. Since then, much environmental sociology has explored the degree to which society’s growth appears to have come at the expense of the natural environment (e.g., Catton 1982; Dunlap and Van Liere 1978, 1984; Foster 1992; O’Connor 1991; Schnaiberg and Gould 1994). These perspectives are all unique, but there are notable commonalities among them. For example, each focuses much attention on explaining environmental degradation with a gen-eral expectation that environmental regulation will be ineffectual. Although they use differ-ent terminology, these perspectives are in general agreement about the role that different social actors play, with the overall expectation that a strong state often supports a neoliberal market sector that does not prioritize environmental protection. This work generally antici-pates that social movements will mobilize, in some cases focusing on coalitions between labor and environmental groups (what Gould, Lewis, and Roberts [2004] called “blue-green coalitions”), but it anticipates such efforts will have little effect overall (see also Rudel et al. 2011). The following sections provide an overview of these critical perspectives.

    Treadmill of Production Theory. Treadmill of production theory posits that environmental deg-radation is an inherent part of economic development (Gould et al. 2008; Schnaiberg and Gould 1994). Given that the economy is predicated on the constant pursuit of profit and expansion, its operations have “direct implications for natural resource extraction,” the gen-eration of pollution, and the overall state of environmental conditions (Gould, Pellow, and

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    Schnaiberg 2004:297). The economy generates ecological problems because it must con-tinually withdraw resources from the environment to produce products and power machin-ery, and such activities also generate waste (or what proponents of this perspective call “additions”). Technological development leads to the expansion and intensification of pro-duction, so the amount of energy and materials used typically increases. The state, although often caught in contradictory positions, is seen as an important social institution that sup-ports economic expansion through negotiating trade agreements, bailing out industry and banking, promoting military spending, and protecting private property (Gould et al. 2008; Schnaiberg and Gould 1994; see also Gareau 2017).

    Allan Schnaiberg (1980), the founder of treadmill of production theory, posited that any society driven by economic expansion is mired in a conflict with nature. Such a society expends energy and resources at an accelerating pace. The production process itself is a constant draw on the natural environment, which in turn produces harmful additions to the environment in the form of pollution (Schnaiberg and Gould 1994). The treadmill of produc-tion perspective recognizes that technological innovation often involves improving the effi-ciency of operations: Fewer inputs are used to produce a specified amount of output, often leading to increased profits. But whether efficiency leads to an overall reduction in resource demands—a decoupling of the economy and environment or the dematerialization of soci-ety—is strongly questioned (Jorgenson and Clark 2012). According to the Jevons paradox (Jevons 2001), it is possible for an economy to become more efficient in its resource use while at the same time expanding its consumption of resources (Clark and Foster 2001; York and McGee 2016). The treadmill of production perspective suggests this situation occurs because gains made in improving efficiency are often outstripped by increases in the scale and intensification of production.

    More generally, the treadmill of production perspective suggests the strong relationship between environmental harms and economic development has remained fairly constant or possibly increased over time. The drive to expand production necessitates a constant with-drawal of natural resources from ecosystems at rates that generally exceed these systems’ regenerative capacity. Additionally, modern industries pursue economic efficiencies to enhance the production process and increase profit margins. Energy-intensive materials are incorporated into manufacturing, generating a broad range of waste (Pellow 2007; Schnaiberg and Gould 1994). Producers attempt to externalize environmental costs as much as possible because it has the potential to enhance profits.

    Metabolic Rift Theory. The metabolic rift perspective within environmental sociology exam-ines the interchange of matter and energy between human societies and the larger environ-ment (Foster 1999). Like treadmill of production theory, this perspective argues that modern capitalism drives a growth imperative. It is a social metabolic system that operates in accord with its own logic, reducing nature and labor to serve capital accumulation. The shaping of material exchanges with the environment increases demands on ecosystems and natural cycles. Metabolic rift theorists argue that the social metabolism of capitalism exceeds natu-ral limits, which undermines ecosystem regeneration and produces “metabolic rifts” in vari-ous cycles and processes (Clark and Foster 2009; Clausen and Clark 2005; Foster 1999; Foster et al. 2010; Longo and Clark 2016).

    For example, soil requires specific nutrients—phosphorus, nitrogen, and potassium—to maintain its ability to produce crops. The enclosure movement and the concentration of land created a division between town and country, and it facilitated growth in the urban popula-tion. Agricultural goods were shipped to distant markets, which led to a transfer of soil nutrients from the country to the city. In the city, the nutrients ultimately accumulated as waste rather than being returned to the soil (Foster et al. 2010). Marx ([1867] 1976:637)

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    argued that this type of production “disturbs the metabolic interaction between man and the earth,” causing a rift in the nutrient cycle that undermines “the operation of the eternal natu-ral condition for the lasting fertility of the soil.”

    Contemporary metabolic analysis highlights how the transfer of nutrients is increasingly taking place internationally, creating global metabolic rifts (Clark and Foster 2009; see also Bunker 1990). Metabolic theorists also contend that the growth imperative of capitalism has generated a global carbon rift through the burning of massive quantities of coal, natural gas, and oil (Clark and York 2005; Foster and Clark 2012). This process is further exacerbated by growth-driven ecological degradation, such as deforestation, which reduces carbon sinks. More broadly, metabolic theorists generally agree with treadmill of production theorists that the relationship between development and environmental degradation is strong and will con-tinue to be so as long as societies are tied to the growth imperative logic of capitalism (Givens, Clark, and Jorgenson 2016).

    In addition to the rich historical work and in-depth case studies conducted by the founders of the metabolic rift and treadmill of production theories, a large body of quantitative cross-national research supports the general propositions of both perspectives concerning the envi-ronmental impacts of economic development. Much of this research uses the STIRPAT model from structural human ecology (or similar approaches), including cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of fossil fuel consumption, carbon emissions, and other greenhouse gases (e.g., Burns, Davis, and Kick 1997; Clark, Jorgenson, and Auerbach 2012; Dietz 2015; Dietz and Jorgenson 2013; Dietz and Rosa 1997; Jorgenson 2006; Jorgenson and Clark 2012; Jorgenson et al. 2019; Knight and Schor 2014; Rosa and Dietz 2012; Rosa, York, and Dietz 2004; Thombs 2018; York 2008; York et al. 2003b), ground-level air pollutants (e.g., Jorgenson, Dick, and Mahutga 2007; York and Rosa 2012), the ecological footprints of nations (e.g., Dietz, Rosa, and York 2007; Jorgenson and Clark 2009, 2011; York et al. 2003a), and the ecological and carbon intensity of human well-being (e.g., Dietz et al. 2012; Givens 2016; Jorgenson 2014).

    Optimistic Perspectives

    Like the more critical theories, there are similarities among the different perspectives that postulate economic growth can be associated with environmental protection. In general, these theories expect the emergence of an “environmental state” (e.g., Buttel 2000b; Frank et al. 2000; see also Davidson and Frickel 2004; Giddens 1998; Goldman 2001), that is, advanced or industrialized nation-states will include environmental protection “as a basic state responsibility” (Frank et al. 2000:96). Also like the critical perspectives, the more opti-mistic theories are in some agreement about the role different social actors play. Generally, the market sector is seen as occupying a hybrid role, collaborating with actors in the state and civil society sectors. The perspectives outlined in this section are also more optimistic about the role civil society plays, although they differ in their characterizations of the orga-nizational forms of civil society actors. And while there are similarities in the outcomes predicted by ecological modernization theory, world society theory, and reflexive modern-ization theory, the specific mechanisms hypothesized to lead toward those outcomes are relatively different. We discuss each perspective in turn.

    Ecological Modernization Theory. Ecological modernization theory focuses on “how various institutions and social actors attempt to integrate environmental concerns into their everyday functioning, development, and relationships with others, including their relation with the natural world” (Mol, Spaargaren, and Sonnenfeld 2009:4). Ecological modernization theory

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    argues that continued economic growth increases both technological advancement and envi-ronmental governance, which in turn mediates the environmental effects of development over time (Mol 2001; see also Fisher and Freudenburg 2001). Alternatives to capitalism are viewed as less feasible than reforming the current world economic system. Proponents of this per-spective argue that the dynamic nature of capitalism allows for economic growth and related technologies to be directed toward environmental reforms. Technological innovation through-out productive (and distributive) systems allows facilities to prevent environmental problems from occurring in the first place, thus lessening the reliance on end-of-pipe technologies and practices that reduce pollution toward the end of the production chain (Huber 2010).

    Scholars working within the ecological modernization perspective tend to expect actors within the state, science, and economic sectors to work together in a top-down fashion to bring about policy outcomes (Buttel 2000a; Mol et al. 2014; Spaargaren and Mol 1992; Spaargaren, Mol, and Buttel 2006). In addition, proponents of the theory highlight the role that civil society actors, such as social movement organizations and nongovernmental orga-nizations (NGOs), play in facilitating environmental improvements and policy reforms (Fisher, Fritsch, and Andersen 2009; Mol 2000; Mol and Jänicke 2010). As ecological con-cerns grow and are broadly diffused, multiple social actors work for social change: Civil society mobilizes and pushes for more sustainable practices, the state creates more environ-mental regulations and institutions, and technological innovation lessens the environmental effects of production (Fisher and Freudenburg 2001; Mol and Buttel 2002; Sonnenfeld 2002). Development will still affect the environment, but these changes should allow eco-nomic development to decouple from material inputs and broader environmental impacts (Mol et al. 2014).

    As the ecological modernization perspective has evolved, a noticeable division has arisen, largely due to differences in what is emphasized (Christoff 2010). On one hand, “weak eco-logical modernization” tends to emphasize market-based solutions and technological inno-vations as the primary means to enhanced sustainability. On the other hand, “strong ecological modernization” places greater emphasis on political processes and state reform, pointing to broader institutional changes as necessary for the effective diffusion of environmental con-cerns and sustainability efforts throughout society. Strong ecological modernization pro-motes the incorporation of natural capital into the accounting of production processes and systems, broadening democratic participation within the political system and integrating notions of equity into environmental governance (Mol et al. 2014).

    World Society Theory. In contrast to ecological modernization’s focus on further industrializa-tion, world society theory focuses on the role of global institutional structures in shaping social change and environmental conditions (Frank et al. 2000; Hironaka 2014; Meyer et al. 1997; Schofer and Hironaka 2005). At the center of world society are international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs). INGOs are theorized to reflect and carry forth the content of world society to nation-states and the subnational actors within them (Boli and Thomas 1999).

    The natural environment is a notable concern of world society, as evidenced by the plu-rality of international organizations, multilateral treaties, and other related configurations devoted to protecting it (Hironaka 2014). Frank and colleagues (2000) found that nation-states with dense ties to world society are more likely to create national parks, adopt national environmental legislation, and establish environmental ministries. Longhofer and Schofer (2010) described how world society provides “global cultural models,” that is, resources and legitimation to support the formation of domestic environmental organizations (cf. Gareau and Lucier 2018). Scholars working within this perspective found that ties to the pro-environmental world society, usually in the form of a strong presence of environmental

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    INGOs, are associated with improved environmental conditions (Schofer and Hironaka 2005; Shandra 2007a, 2007b; Shandra et al. 2004; Shorette 2012; Shorette et al. 2017).

    Environmental INGOs can intervene in political processes by helping shape the language of treaties and organizations dealing with the environment. In the absence of formal enforce-ment mechanisms, they monitor nation-states’ compliance with environmental treaties. Environmental INGOs also help mobilize support for problem-solving initiatives when national-level avenues are inadequate, and they aid conservation and environmental protec-tion efforts at the subnational level (Shandra 2007b; Shandra et al. 2009; see also Grant and Vasi 2017). Such civil society organizations use frames and discourses that encourage social movement activity; in turn, governments and private sector firms are “squeezed” from above and below to attend to environmental problems (Schofer and Hironaka 2005). Research also showed that individual-level environmental concern is more likely in nations with stronger ties to the pro-environmental world society (Givens and Jorgenson 2013). Moreover, in nations that are found to be most central in the environmental INGO network, the magnitude of the effect of economic development on carbon emissions has moderately decreased over time (Longhofer and Jorgenson 2017).

    Reflexive Modernization Theory. Like the other relatively optimistic theories that emphasize the emergence and role of the environmental state, reflexive modernization focuses on develop-ment as a process through which environmental protection becomes more common (Beck 1995, 1999, 2009; Beck, Bonss, and Lau 2003; Beck, Giddens, and Lash 1994). In contrast to the other theories, however, reflexive modernization is a two-step process. The first step—the risk society phase—involves a universalization of risk that leads to a breakdown in society’s general working. The second step is reflexive modernization, which is driven by a new type of solidarity motivated by risk. This solidarity is facilitated by new coalitions, or what some scholars called “subpolitics” (Beck 1997; see also Elliott and Frickel 2013, 2015).

    The risk society stage of this theory has some commonalities with the expectations of the critical perspectives in environmental sociology (Cable, Shriver, and Mix 2008; Ekberg 2007; Elliott and Frickel 2013; Rosa, Renn, and McCright 2014). Like scholars coming from a treadmill of production perspective, proponents of this approach also see the unintended side effects of industrial society contributing to social conflict, leading to a breakdown of society due to the expansion of environmental bads. These environmental bads become so dispersed that they are expected to lead to a universalization of risk. Beck (1994:8) high-lighted what he called the metamorphosis of unseen side effects of industrial production, which leads society to recognize that environmental problems are due to a crisis of advanced industrial society itself. Elliott and Frickel (2013:524) expanded on these ideas: “manufac-tured risks have become central features of modernity; as such, the dualism of society and nature should be recast to ask how society ought to handle the unintended consequences of its intended transformation of nature.” In short, environmental bads dominate society in the form of risk. In their study of nuclear weapons workers, Cable and colleagues (2008) focused on the implications of the risk society for less powerful social actors, noting that their future is particularly hopeless.

    Recently, Boström, Lidskog, and Uggla (2017:7) described what comes next: “As these side effects multiply and are increasingly seen as unresolved by traditional instrumental approaches, a reflexive turn emerges” (see also Beck 1987, 1995, 1997; Beck et al. 1994). As other proponents explained, such forms of manufactured risk could lead, in time, to a subpolitics of risk society that crosses scale and spans various subnational spaces (Elliott and Frickel 2013, 2015; see also Beck 1997). Instead of substantial conflict as the end-point, like the more critical perspectives might expect, this universalization of risk leads to

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    a breakdown of industrial society and a reorientation into the second step in the process: reflective modernization.

    Due to the social change that is the product of the risk society, modernization is further advanced by risk. Perceptions and experiences of risk should mobilize individuals to act, with some scholars expecting risk to replace differences traditionally associated with race, class, and gender (Beck 1999, 2013; but see Curran 2013). Reflexive modernization is “a radicalization of modernity, which breaks up the premises and contours of industrial soci-ety, and opens paths to another modernity” (Beck 1994:3; see also Beck 1999; Beck et al. 2003). In many ways, this reoriented view of society and the environment is consistent with the ecological modernization perspective: Environmental protection happens when new coalitions take advantage of innovations in science and technology. Like in ecological modernization, proponents of reflexive modernization foresee this reorientation of social actors leading society to have a less harmful effect on the natural environment. In contrast to ecological modernization, though, the subpolitical social change described in reflexive modernization is driven from below, by “citizens, the public sphere, social movements, and expert groups” (Beck 1994:23). In reflexive modernization, civil society actors find envi-ronmental damage to be a greater concern than any associated constraints on production processes. Note that in contrast to the general consensus of more critical scholars, the reflexive modernization approach does not expect these civil society efforts via subpolitics to be ineffectual.

    THE AnTHRO-SHIFT

    We consider the society-environment relationship as a dynamic that integrates these differ-ent perspectives into a broader framework. When we look at society’s relationship to the natural environment over time, neither the critical nor the optimistic perspectives win out completely. Instead, we propose the anthro-shift, in which the society-environment relation-ship is determined by the configuration of social actors and the degree to which those actors prioritize environmental issues (through the regulation of environmental bads and the pro-tection of environmental goods). The anthro-shift has two distinctive features: (1) Risk reorients the relationships among the state, market, and civil society sectors, and (2) the relationship between society and the environment—which is determined by the varying combinations among the state, market, and civil society sectors—is multidirectional. In other words, society can shift to an orientation that reflects what scholars from the more critical perspective might expect, or it can move toward more effective environmental pro-tection and a stronger “environmental state”—and it can also move back again.

    Risk as the Pivot

    Like reflexive modernization theory, our framework for understanding the relationship between society and the natural environment sees risk as the impetus for social change. In contrast to reflexive modernization theory, however, we do not have particular expectations about which social actors will bring about this social change, nor do we interpret social progress as linear and unidirectional. Instead, we believe risk—in terms of the perception of risk and the actual experience of risk—serves as a pivot to reorient social actors and how they interact with one another and the natural environment.

    Beck (2013:64) noted what he called “major risk events of recent decades,” including “Chernobyl, 9/11, climate change, the financial crisis, Fukushima, [and] the euro crisis” (see also Beck 2014). We believe such risk events can be expanded further to include other

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    “environment events,” such as Hurricane Katrina and the Gulf oil spill of 2016, as well as strictly social events, such as Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States.10 These events represent moments of risk-motivated pivots in society—some of which are more socially constructed than others—that lead to changes in the configura-tion of social actors and how they interact. This configuration in turn shapes the society-environment relationship.

    Note that risk and the accompanying perceptions of risk both serve as a pivot. Extensive research has been dedicated to understanding risk and how it is constructed through social lenses such as the media (see Rosa et al. 2014; Slovic et al. 2004; Stallings 1990; Wright and Boudet 2012; for a discussion of “risk-taking society,” see Zinn 2016).11 Consistent with Wright and Boudet (2012), we believe the social context in which individuals and communi-ties are embedded determines their perceptions of risk as well as their responses. Comparing the opposition to energy infrastructure projects, Wright and Boudet (2012:764) found much variation: “[S]imilar contextual conditions can shape the judgments of large groups of peo-ple within a community. . . . The facts about the issue, such as the type of project proposed or the potential risks to safety and property, are understood within a broader context and evaluated differently across communities.” The authors specifically discussed a case of environmental risk, but this process of assessing and perceiving risks is not limited to envi-ronmental events.

    Another example can be seen in the electoral victory of Donald Trump. Although the candidate’s success involved a mix of factors, numerous accounts discuss how he succeeded due, in part, to what Cox, Lienesch, and Jones (2017) called “fear of cultural displacement” or what Mutz (2018) described as “the result of anxiety about dominant groups’ future sta-tus.” In other words, risk associated with the sense of falling behind drove some Americans to vote for Trump; in turn, the election went to candidate Trump, leading to a reorientation of interactions among social actors. This reorientation of interactions resulted in a very dif-ferent relationship between society and the natural environment, as evidenced in the numer-ous examples we list in our introduction.

    In the anthro-shift, risk serves as a pivot to shake up configurations among the state, mar-ket, and civil society sectors. These configurations determine how society functions and how it interacts with the natural environment. We contend that some of these configurations resemble the conditions and relationships highlighted by the varying perspectives on the society-environment relationship.

    As risk permeates society, the main social actors from the state, market, and civil society sectors are reorganized. Turning first to the ways the state may be reoriented, we build on Skocpol’s work on the autonomy of the state (in Evans, Rueschemeyer and Skocpol 1985; see also Fukuyama 2014, 2016). In particular, states are classified as strong or weak depend-ing on their independence and effectiveness in implementing official actions. We interpret these classifications as delineating a continuum. The characteristics of the nation-state are important to keep in mind because a state’s strength determines its level of autonomy in rela-tion to other social actors. A strong state has more capacity to implement regressive poli-cies—although it need not necessarily do so—and a weaker state is more likely to be collaborative and engage in cooperative arrangements with other social actors.

    The extant research does not depict the full range of configurations; rather, this work records the most common configurations among the state, market, and civil society sectors. Discussing the corporatist state of Sweden in the early twentieth century, for example, Longhofer and Schofer (2010) highlighted the ways it established channels for civil society actors to participate in decision-making processes. Numerous studies within the ecological modernization tradition observed the relationship between a relatively weak state and the

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    civil society and market sectors (e.g., Fisher 2004; Fisher and Svendsen 2013; Galli and Fisher 2016; Koontz et al. 2004; see also Bulkeley 2005).

    At the same time, the market sector can shift from being neoliberal, with a command-and-control orientation, to having more hybrid and collaborative arrangements with other social actors. Scholars working from the critical perspectives in environmental sociology tend to expect a more neoliberal market sector, whereas scholars in the more optimistic vein tend to expect hybrid arrangements.

    Finally, the civil society sector can be individualized and disengaged or more engaged and collective in its orientation. Most of the theories summarized earlier presume some level of collective action around environmental issues, but they have very different expectations about their effectiveness. For example, Rudel and colleagues (2011) pointed out that social movements mobilize in response to environmental degradation but are ineffectual overall. The world society perspective, in contrast, identifies a more successful role for civil society through voluntary associations and environmental INGOs (see Givens and Jorgenson 2013; Hironaka 2014; Longhofer and Schofer 2010).

    Reflexive modernization, in contrast, focuses on subpolitics to highlight collaborations among civil society actors and individuals from different social sectors (see Beck 1997, 1999; Elliott and Frickel 2013; Holzer and Sørensen 2003). As previously noted, subpolitics starts with civil society actors and diffuses throughout society in radical ways. The anthro-shift integrates all of these perspectives: Risk drives a reconfiguration among social actors that in turn leads to a different relationship between society and the natural environment.12

    The reorientation of the configuration of social actors can be seen in the aftermath of environmental disasters such as Hurricanes Sandy or Katrina, where collaborative efforts were initiated among the state, markets, and civil society to address environmental risks and recover from the damage caused by these events. Similarly, in the throes of the Great Recession, when Americans were feeling substantial economic risk (see Grusky, Western, and Wimer 2011), Barack Obama was elected president of the United States. Obama began his presidency by passing the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which invested in infrastructure throughout the United States, including supporting green jobs and energy and conservation initiatives (for a discussion, see Galli and Fisher 2016). In both cases, risk drove social change that reoriented the way social actors worked together and interacted with the natural environment. These examples present cases of the anthro-shift leading to configurations consistent with the more optimistic perspectives on the society-environment relationship.

    We can also find examples of the anthro-shift leading to configurations of policy actors that are less environmentally supportive. Mutz (2018), for example, showed how candidate preferences in 2016 were due to elevated anxiety among high-status groups, or what she called “status threat” (for alternative interpretations, see Cox et al. 2017; ECRI 2016). With the transition from the Obama administration to the Trump administration, the role different social actors played in society was reconfigured. As a result, there have been numerous changes to the way U.S. society interacts with the environment, with substantial conse-quences for anthropogenic climate change and other sustainability concerns. These changes are consistent with more critical perspectives of the society-environment relationship.

    Multidirectionality

    In addition to illustrating the ways risk serves as a pivot in socio-environmental transfor-mation, the transition from the Obama to the Trump administration and the ways social actors have reconfigured themselves since provide evidence of the multidirectionality of the

  • Fisher and Jorgenson 353

    anthro-shift. Multidirectionality of the theory means that risk pivots lead to reorientations of social actors that in some cases lead to better environmental outcomes and in other cases do not. In other words, even though we see risk as driving social change, we do not see the process as leading to one specific configuration among social actors. Like Pinch and Bijker’s (1984) work that provided a multidirectional view of technological development, we also find that a multidirectional perspective is necessary to understand the empirical reality of the society-environment relationship. As Pinch and Bijker (1984:411) suggested, historical hindsight may make it possible to collapse the multidirectionality of the anthro-shift, provid-ing “retrospective distortion.” However, to see how social actors interrelate in varying ways at varying times, a multidirectional model is likely necessary.13

    A society could be oriented such that the state is relatively weak, collaborating with both civil society and market sectors; in such a case, the relationship between society and the environment would function in a manner consistent with ecological modernization. Increasing uncertainty due to some major “risk event,” such as a terrorist attack, environ-mental disaster, or financial crisis, may then lead to changes in the configuration of social actors that changes the relationship between society and the natural environment (Huang 2018). This reconfiguration may (but does not necessarily) involve the state accumulating strength and the market sector functioning more independently, which would be more con-sistent with expectations of the treadmill of production theory. Similarly, a social or environ-mental event could lead to a reorientation in the other direction, and a more collaborative and “environmental” state might emerge. We do not privilege one transition over another. Over the course of history, there are myriad examples of the anthro-shift moving in various directions, leading to substantial changes in the society-environment relationship.

    The multidirectionality of the anthro-shift contrasts with the dominant perspectives of the society-environment relationship, which tend to assume a relatively unidirectional trajec-tory. For example, treadmill of production theory concludes that “[t]he major institutions of modern society are ‘addicted’ to economic growth and treadmill expansion” (Schnaiberg and Gould 1994:92). Similarly, reflexive modernization expects society to move toward a new orientation of social actors as a result of the “social explosiveness of global risk” (Beck 2014:xvi).

    Note that the process of reflexive modernization is quite different from the other theories: It expects society will continually move in the direction of the universalization of risk and then, eventually, beyond it to a reorientation of society. This reorientation goes in a very dif-ferent direction than other theories that come from what Beck (1999:8) termed a more “post-modernist constellation.” In other words, Beck’s (1994:18) perspective involves a complete reorientation of society where “the political breaks open and erupts beyond the formal responsibilities and hierarchies.” Although it envisions a different end point than other theo-ries, reflexive modernization expects unidirectional progression from modernity through risk society to reflexive modernization; the social change is radically different than predicted by other theories, but once society enters the stage of reflexive modernization, there is no going back. In summary, the multidirectionaliy of the antro-shift could allow for a more comprehensive understanding of the society-environment relationship and how it changes over time.

    COnClUSIOn

    For decades, sociologists who study the society-environment relationship focused on resolv-ing the debate regarding the relationship between economic development and environmental degradation. As we summarized in detail, this debate can generally be classified as one

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    between relatively critical perspectives that tend to find economic development is antitheti-cal to environmental protection and a suite of more optimistic perspectives regarding the potential for environmental governance and its effectiveness at mitigating environmental bads. To date, scholars have been slow to move beyond this stalemate (but see efforts by Grant et al. 2018; Longhofer and Jorgenson 2017; Shorette 2012; Shwom 2009, 2011).

    In this article, we argued that one way to resolve these differences is by situating the theo-retical debate within the larger framework of the anthro-shift. Overall, the anthro-shift pro-vides an explanation of how the society-environment relationship changes over time by focusing on how the interrelations among the state, market, and civil society sectors shift. We highlighted two distinctive qualities of the anthro-shift: (1) Risk serves as a pivot for reorienting how society interacts with the natural environment, and (2) these reorientations are multidirectional. Underlying our approach is the notion that the more critical and more optimistic perspectives are all relevant and perhaps related to one another in meaningful ways. As such, we situate them within this broader framework of the anthro-shift. Taken as a whole, the integrated framework of the anthro-shift helps explain the full variation in society-environment interactions that can be observed in the world through time (as well as the interrelations among social actors more broadly).

    Given this proposed framework, there is much work to be done. In particular, future research is needed to test the anthro-shift empirically, investigating the conditions under which the shifts from one perspective to another actually happen and how they are related to social actors and structural context. Such research must include extensive comparative anal-yses across societies as well as in-depth analyses within societies. Future work should also take advantage of the full range of research methods available to sociologists, especially because environmental sociology is a methodologically pluralistic field (Marquart-Pyatt, Jorgenson, and Hamilton 2015). It is important to acknowledge that future social and envi-ronmental changes could occur that would facilitate a need to refine the anthro-shift, and the framework is structured in a way that allows for such refinements if and when they become useful and necessary.

    We proposed the anthro-shift framework to understand the society-environment relation-ship more clearly and comprehensively, but we believe the theory has potential beyond the society-environment relationship. Our shared understanding of other sociologically relevant topics could be enriched if researchers take the notion of the anthro-shift and explore the degree to which it applies to other contexts. Such an extension of the framework could pro-vide added validity to the notion of the anthro-shift and how risk contributes to reconfigura-tions of the state, market, and civil society sectors more broadly.

    ACknOWlEDgMEnTSThe authors wish to thank Shamus Khan, Wes Longhofer, and Lennart Olsen for helpful suggestions on earlier drafts of this article. We would also like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments.

    nOTES 1. For an overview, see https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-is-what-the-coming-attack-on

    -climate-science-could-look-like/2016/12/16/e015cc24-bd8c-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html ?utm_term=.50a88ede27f2.

    2. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/07/us/politics/scott-pruitt-epa-trump.html?_r=0. 3. http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/309628-trump-to-pick-rep-mcmorris-rodgers-for-inte-

    rior-secretary-report. 4. https://www.texastribune.org/2016/12/11/everything-you-need-know-about-exxonmobil-climate-/;

    see also https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07012019/exxon-climate-fraud-investigation-supreme

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-is-what-the-coming-attack-on-climate-science-could-look-like/2016/12/16/e015cc24-bd8c-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html?utm_term=.50a88ede27f2https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-is-what-the-coming-attack-on-climate-science-could-look-like/2016/12/16/e015cc24-bd8c-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html?utm_term=.50a88ede27f2https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-is-what-the-coming-attack-on-climate-science-could-look-like/2016/12/16/e015cc24-bd8c-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html?utm_term=.50a88ede27f2http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/07/us/politics/scott-pruitt-epa-trump.html?_r=0http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/309628-trump-to-pick-rep-mcmorris-rodgers-for-interior-secretary-reporthttp://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/309628-trump-to-pick-rep-mcmorris-rodgers-for-interior-secretary-reporthttps://www.texastribune.org/2016/12/11/everything-you-need-know-about-exxonmobil-climate-/https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07012019/exxon-climate-fraud-investigation-supreme-court-ruling-massachusetts-attorney-general-healey

  • Fisher and Jorgenson 355

    -court-ruling-massachusetts-attorney-general-healey. These three political appointees are no longer serving in the Trump administration, but their replacements are expected to continue to carry out the “the president’s de-regulatory agenda” (Gullén 2019).

    5. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/climate/trump-paris-climate-agreement.html?mcubz=0&_r=0. 6. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/09/climate/clean-power-plan.html. 7. These efforts have been compared to the contents of the Green New Deal, which gained attention in

    spring 2019 (for details, see Iaconangelo 2019). 8. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/president-obama-climate-action-. Much of the emission reduc-

    tion in the United States during this period has been attributed to energy transitions from coal-fired power to natural gas as well as the economic recession. However, transitioning to natural gas, as the Trump administration advocates, poses very serious challenges to long-term climate mitigation. Another partial explanation, that is empirically documented, is the outsourcing of production-based emissions from the United States to developing nations (Huang 2018).

    9. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/9/2/1566211/-President-Barack-Obama-has-now-protected -more-national-park-land-than-any-other-President-in-history.

    10. This list is not meant to be exhaustive.11. In a related vein, other scholars have written about how elite social actors, especially in the neoliberal

    era, have “capitalized on crisis” (e.g., Gotham and Greenberg 2014; Harvey 2005; Klein 2007). Similarly, studies have analyzed cultural interpretations of nature, connecting capitalism, nature, and culture (see Fine 1998; Tsing 2015). We thank an anonymous reviewer for making these important observations.

    12. In some ways, this component of the anthro-shift is consistent with Shwom’s (2011) middle-range theory of energy politics. Shwom suggested that ecological modernization theory will prove valid when an issue features high levels of public awareness, a record of past regulation, a threat of future regulation, and disunity of the business class. In contrast, she argued that treadmill of production will likely prove valid in situations where there is low public consciousness, absence of past regulation, low threat of future regulation, and high levels of business unity.

    13. The multidirectionality of the anthro-shift is consistent with recent efforts to think through the relation-ship between society and nature from an urban perspective (see Angelo 2017; Brenner, Madden, and Wachsmuth 2011; Wachsmuth 2012). In contrast to our approach, which focuses on the interrelations among social actors and how their specific configurations lead to variations in the society-environment relationship, this line of inquiry builds on attempts to link “analytical and methodological orientations of assemblage urbanism to the tools of geopolitical economy in ways that contribute to a genuinely critical approach to ongoing planetary urban transformations” (Brenner, Madden and Wachsmuth 2011:238; see also Latour 2005). In some cases, this approach involves applying a “historically vari-able relational embeddedness” to the study of an urbanizing planet (Angelo 2017:17).

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    AUTHOR BIOgRAPHIESDana R. Fisher is a professor in the Department of Sociology at the University of Maryland. Her research focuses on studying democracy, civic participation, activism, and environmental policymaking. She is cur-rently involved in projects that study the youth climate movement, the Resistance, and the relationship between civic engagement and climate change. In addition to six books, she has published her work in over 60 peer-reviewed journal articles. Professor Fisher has appeared on CNN, MSNBC, PBS Newshour, and various programs on NPR to discuss her work. She has presented her work to federal agencies, foundations, and other organization, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office, the State Department International Visitor Leadership Program, the Let’s Move Campaign in the Obama White House, the Brookings Institution, and to program members at the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation, and the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Fisher earned her undergraduate degree from Princeton University and a PhD in sociology from the University of Wisconsin, Madison.

    Andrew Jorgenson is professor and chair in the Department of Sociology and professor of environmental studies at Boston C