Ending Civil Wars: Challenges for Democracy and

GovernancePresentation to CDDRL Summer

Fellows, August 6, 2013

Why Civil Wars Are Difficult to Negotiate

• Security dilemma and fear

• Total perceptions, stakes and rhetoric

• Pathologies of leadership

• Factionalization and intraparty conflict

The Fear Equation

• Parties in civil war come to fear the potential consequences of settlement more than the consequences of continuing the war.

What then do mediators try to do?

• Increase the fears of continuing the war

• Reduce the fears of settlement – Creation of detailed agreements– Reduce uncertainty of outcomes– Provide external supervision, monitoring,

verification and implementation– Build trust and shared interests

Possible Tensions - Mediation and Democracy and

Governance?

Tensions

• Legitimation of bad leadership?

• Marginalization of civil society?

• Certainty vs uncertainty?

• Sacrifice of accountability or sacrifice of stability?

• Rewards vs. corruption?

Democracy and Civil War Outcomes

Source: Virginia Page Fortna, 2008

Peace Failures and Executive Systems

Implementation of Peace Agreements

• Successful when its easy and when lots of resources

• International implementers are driven by their own models and interests

• Possible contradictions?

Contradictions?

• Outside intervention for self-government

• International control and local ownership

• Universal models vs. local needs

• Expediency and short term vs. strategy and long term

Average Time Between Agreement and Election,

1990-2008

Source: Brancati and Snyder, 2011

With limited resources and limited time what goals would

you prioritize?

• Human rights; accountability for the past; police and judicial reform; legitimate elections; local governance capacity; disarmament; demobilization of combatants; refugee return; what else? Why?

DDR Implementation and New War Recurrence, 1989-2008

Bracati and Snyder, 2011